Identifying individuals with multiple non-communicable disease risk factors in Kenya: a latent class analysis

Clustering and trajectories of key noncommunicable disease risk factors in Norway: the NCDNOR project

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a leading cause of premature death globally and have common preventable risk factors. In Norway, the NCDNOR-project aims at establishing new knowledge in the prevention of NCDs by combining information from national registries with data from population-based health studies. In the present study, we aimed to harmonize data on key NCD risk factors from the health studies, describe clustering of risk factors using intersection diagrams and latent class analysis, and identify long-term risk factor trajectories using latent class mixed models. The harmonized study sample consisted of 808,732 individuals (1,197,158 participations). Two-thirds were exposed to ≥ 1 NCD risk factor (daily smoking, physical inactivity, obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia or hypertriglyceridaemia). In individuals exposed to ≥ 2 risk factors (24%), we identified five distinct clusters, all characterized by fewer years of education and lower income compared to individuals exposed to < 2 risk factors. We identified distinct long-term trajectories of smoking intensity, leisure-time physical activity, body mass index, blood pressure, and blood lipids. Individuals in the trajectories tended to differ across sex, education, and body mass index. This provides important insights into the mechanisms by which NCD risk factors can occur and may help the development of interventions aimed at preventing NCDs.

Multimorbidity of cardiometabolic diseases: a cross-sectional study of patterns, clusters and associated risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVE

To determine the patterns of cardiometabolic multimorbidity and associated risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

DESIGN

We used data from the WHO STEPwise approach to non-communicable disease risk factor surveillance cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2014 and 2017.

PARTICIPANTS

The participants comprised 39, 658 respondents aged 15-69 years randomly selected from nine SSA countries using a multistage stratified sampling design.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Using latent class analysis and agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms, we analysed the clustering of cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) including high blood sugar, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) such as heart attack, angina and stroke. Clusters of lifestyle risk factors: harmful salt intake, physical inactivity, obesity, tobacco and alcohol use were also computed. Prevalence ratios (PR) from modified Poisson regression were used to assess the association of cardiometabolic multimorbidity with sociodemographic and lifestyle risk factors.

RESULTS

Two distinct classes of CMDs were identified: relatively healthy group with minimal CMDs (95.2%) and cardiometabolic multimorbidity class comprising participants with high blood sugar, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension and CVDs (4.8%). The clusters of lifestyle risk factors included alcohol, tobacco and harmful salt consumption (27.0%), and physical inactivity and obesity (5.8%). The cardiometabolic multimorbidity cluster exhibited unique sociodemographic and lifestyle risk profiles. Being female (PR=1.7, 95% CI (1.5 to 2.0), middle-aged (35-54 years) (3.9 (95% CI 3.2 to 4.8)), compared with age 15-34 years, employed (1.2 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.4)), having tertiary education (2.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 3.3)), vs no formal education and clustering of physical inactivity and obesity (2.4 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.8)) were associated with a higher likelihood of cardiometabolic multimorbidity.

CONCLUSION

Our findings show that cardiometabolic multimorbidity and lifestyle risk factors cluster in distinct patterns with a disproportionate burden among women, middle-aged, persons in high socioeconomic positions, and those with sedentary lifestyles and obesity. These results provide insights for health systems response in SSA to focus on these clusters as potential targets for integrated care.

Changes in prevalence and risk factors of hypertension among adults in Bangladesh: An analysis of two waves of nationally representative surveys

Introduction

Bangladesh is one of the countries where the prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as hypertension is rising due to rising living standards, sedentary lifestyles, and epidemiological transition. Among the NCDs, hypertension is a major risk factor for CVD, accounting for half of all coronary heart disease worldwide. However, detailed research in this area has been limited in Bangladesh. The objective of the study was to estimate changes in the prevalence and risk factors of hypertension among Bangladeshi adult population. The study also sought to identify socioeconomic status-related inequality of hypertension prevalence in Bangladesh.

Methods

Cross-sectional analysis was conducted using nationally representative two waves of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) in 2011 and 2017–18. Survey participants were adults 18 years or older- which included detailed biomarker and anthropometric measurements of 23539 participants. The change in prevalence of hypertension was estimated, and adjusted odds ratios were obtained using multivariable survey logistic regression models. Further, Wagstaff decomposition method was also used to analyze the relative contributions of factors to hypertension.

Results

From 2011 to 2018, the hypertension prevalence among adults aged ≥35 years increased from 25.84% to 39.40% (p<0.001), with the largest relative increase (97%) among obese individuals. The prevalence among women remained higher than men whereas the relative increase among men and women were 75% and 39%, respectively. Regression analysis identified age and BMI as the independent risk factors of hypertension. Other risk factors of hypertension were sex, marital status, education, geographic region, wealth index, and diabetes status in both survey years. Female adults had significantly higher hypertension risk in both survey years in the overall analysis in, however, in the subgroup analysis, the gender difference in hypertension risk was not significant in rural 2011 and urban 2018 samples. Decomposition analysis revealed that the contributions of socio-economic status related inequality of hypertension in 2011 were46.58% and 20.85% for wealth index and BMI, respectively. However, the contributions of wealth index and BMI have shifted to 12.60% and 55.29%, respectively in 2018.

Conclusion

The prevalence of hypertension among Bangladeshi adults has increased significantly, and there is no subgroup where it is decreasing. Population-level approaches directed at high-risk groups (overweight, obese) should be implemented thoroughly. We underscore prevention strategies by following strong collaboration with stakeholders in the health system of the country to adopt healthy lifestyle choices.