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Zahra A, van Smeden M, Elders PJM, Festen J, Gussekloo J, Joling KJ, van Loon A, Luijken K, Melis RJF, Mooijaart SP, Moons KGM, Peeters G, Polinder-Bos HA, Wouters F, de Hond A. Charlson comorbidity index has no incremental value for mortality risk prediction in nursing home residents with COVID-19 disease. BMC Geriatr 2025; 25:67. [PMID: 39885429 PMCID: PMC11780814 DOI: 10.1186/s12877-025-05721-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2024] [Accepted: 01/20/2025] [Indexed: 02/01/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND During the COVID-19 pandemic, nursing home (NH) residents faced the highest risk of severe COVID-19 disease and mortality. Due to their frailty status, comorbidity burden can serve as a useful predictive indicator of vulnerability in this frail population. However, the prognostic value of these cumulative comorbidity scores like the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) remained unclear in this population. We evaluated the incremental predictive value of the CCI for predicting 28-day mortality in NH residents with COVID-19, compared to prediction using age and sex only. METHODS We included older individuals of ≥ 70 years of age in a large retrospective observational cohort across NHs in the Netherlands. Individuals with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis from 1 March 2020 to 31 December 2021 were included. The CCI score was computed by searching for the comorbidities recorded in the electronic patient records. All-cause mortality within 28 days was predicted using logistic regression based on age and sex only (base model) and by adding the CCI to the base model (CCI model). The predictive performance of the base model and the CCI model were compared visually by the distribution of predicted risks and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC), scaled Brier score, and calibration slope. RESULTS A total of 4318 older NH residents were included in this study with a median age of 88 years [IQR: 83-93] and a median CCI score of 6 [IQR: 5-7]. 1357 (31%) residents died within 28 days after COVID-19 diagnosis. The base model, with age and sex as predictors, had an AUROC of 0.61 (CI: 0.60 to 0.63), a scaled brier score of 0.03 (CI: 0.02 to 0.04), and a calibration slope of 0.97 (CI: 0.83 to 1.13). The addition of CCI did not improve these predictive performance measures. CONCLUSION The addition of the CCI as a vulnerability indicator did not improve short-term mortality prediction in NH residents. Similar (high) age and number of comorbidities in the NH population could reduce the effectiveness of these predictors, emphasizing the need for other population-specific predictors that can be utilized in the frail NH residents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anum Zahra
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
| | - Maarten van Smeden
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Petra J M Elders
- Department of General Practice & Elderly Care Medicine, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Jacobijn Gussekloo
- Department of Internal Medicine, Section of Geriatrics and Gerontology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
- LUMC Center for Medicine for Older People, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Karlijn J Joling
- Department of Medicine for Older People, Amsterdam UMC, Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Aging & Later Life, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Anouk van Loon
- Department of Medicine for Older People, Amsterdam UMC, Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Aging & Later Life, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Kim Luijken
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - René J F Melis
- Aging & Later Life, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Simon P Mooijaart
- Department of Internal Medicine, Section of Geriatrics and Gerontology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
- LUMC Center for Medicine for Older People, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Karel G M Moons
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Geeske Peeters
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Harmke A Polinder-Bos
- Division of Geriatric Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Fenne Wouters
- Department of Medicine for Older People, Amsterdam UMC, Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Aging & Later Life, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Anne de Hond
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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la Roi-Teeuw HM, Luijken K, Blom MT, Gussekloo J, Mooijaart SP, Polinder-Bos HA, van Smeden M, Geersing GJ, van den Dries CJ. Limited incremental predictive value of the frailty index and other vulnerability measures from routine care data for mortality risk prediction in older patients with COVID-19 in primary care. BMC PRIMARY CARE 2024; 25:70. [PMID: 38395766 PMCID: PMC10885372 DOI: 10.1186/s12875-024-02308-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2023] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND During the COVID-19 pandemic, older patients in primary care were triaged based on their frailty or assumed vulnerability for poor outcomes, while evidence on the prognostic value of vulnerability measures in COVID-19 patients in primary care was lacking. Still, knowledge on the role of vulnerability is pivotal in understanding the resilience of older people during acute illness, and hence important for future pandemic preparedness. Therefore, we assessed the predictive value of different routine care-based vulnerability measures in addition to age and sex for 28-day mortality in an older primary care population of patients with COVID-19. METHODS From primary care medical records using three routinely collected Dutch primary care databases, we included all patients aged 70 years or older with a COVID-19 diagnosis registration in 2020 and 2021. All-cause mortality was predicted using logistic regression based on age and sex only (basic model), and separately adding six vulnerability measures: renal function, cognitive impairment, number of chronic drugs, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Chronic Comorbidity Score, and a Frailty Index. Predictive performance of the basic model and the six vulnerability models was compared in terms of area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), index of prediction accuracy and the distribution of predicted risks. RESULTS Of the 4,065 included patients, 9% died within 28 days after COVID-19 diagnosis. Predicted mortality risk ranged between 7-26% for the basic model including age and sex, changing to 4-41% by addition of comorbidity-based vulnerability measures (Charlson Comorbidity Index, Chronic Comorbidity Score), more reflecting impaired organ functioning. Similarly, the AUC of the basic model slightly increased from 0.69 (95%CI 0.66 - 0.72) to 0.74 (95%CI 0.71 - 0.76) by addition of either of these comorbidity scores. Addition of a Frailty Index, renal function, the number of chronic drugs or cognitive impairment yielded no substantial change in predictions. CONCLUSION In our dataset of older COVID-19 patients in primary care, the 28-day mortality fraction was substantial at 9%. Six different vulnerability measures had little incremental predictive value in addition to age and sex in predicting short-term mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah M la Roi-Teeuw
- Department of General Practice and Nursing Science, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Stratenum 6.131, PO Box 85500, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
| | - Kim Luijken
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Economics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Marieke T Blom
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jacobijn Gussekloo
- LUMC Center for Medicine for Older People, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Department of Internal Medicine, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
- Section of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Department of Internal Medicine, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Simon P Mooijaart
- LUMC Center for Medicine for Older People, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Department of Internal Medicine, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
- Section of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Department of Internal Medicine, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Harmke A Polinder-Bos
- Section of Geriatric Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Maarten van Smeden
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Economics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Department of Data Science and Biostatistics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Geert-Jan Geersing
- Department of General Practice and Nursing Science, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Stratenum 6.131, PO Box 85500, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Carline J van den Dries
- Department of General Practice and Nursing Science, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Stratenum 6.131, PO Box 85500, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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