Multivariable model development and internal validation for prostate cancer specific survival and overall survival after whole-gland salvage Iodine-125 prostate brachytherapy

Salvage Reirradiation Options for Locally Recurrent Prostate Cancer: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Reirradiation using brachytherapy (BT) and external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) are salvage strategies with locally radiorecurrent prostate cancer. This systematic review describes the oncologic and toxicity outcomes for salvage BT and EBRT [including Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT)].

METHODS

An International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) registered (#211875) study was conducted using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. EMBASE and MEDLINE databases were searched from inception to December 2020. For BT, both low dose rate (LDR) and high dose rate (HDR) BT techniques were included. Two authors independently assessed study quality using the 18-item Modified Delphi technique.

RESULTS

A total of 39 eligible studies comprising 1967 patients were included (28 BT and 11 SBRT). In 35 studies (90%), the design was single centre and/or retrospective and no randomised prospective studies were found. Twelve BT studies used LDR only, 11 HDR only, 4 LDR or HDR and 1 pulsed-dose rate only. All EBRT studies used SBRT exclusively, four with Cyberknife alone and 7 using both Cyberknife and conventional linear accelerator treatments. Median (range) modified Delphi quality score was 15 (6-18). Median (range) follow-up was 47.5 months (13-108) (BT) and 25.4 months (21-44) (SBRT). For the LDR-BT studies, the median (range) 2-year and 5-year bRFS rates were 71% (48-89.5) and 52.5% (20-79). For the HDR-BT studies, the median (range) 2-year and 5-year bRFS rates were 74% (63-89) and 51% (45-65). For the SBRT studies, the median (range) 2-year bRFS for the SBRT group was 54.9% (40-80). Mean (range) acute and late grade≥3 GU toxicity rates for LDR-BT/HDR-BT/SBRT were 7.4%(0-14)/2%(0-14)/2.7%(0-8.7) and 13.6%(0-30)/7.9%(0-21.3%)/2.7%(0-8%). Mean (range) acute and late grade≥3 GI toxicity rates for LDR-BT/HDR-BT/SBRT were 6.5%(0-19)/0%/0.5%(0-4%) and 6.4%(0-20)/0.1%(0-0.9)/0.2%(0-1.5). One third of studies included Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs).

CONCLUSIONS

Salvage reirradiation of radiorecurrent prostate cancer using HDR-BT or SBRT provides similar biochemical control and acceptable late toxicity. Salvage LDR-BT is associated with higher late GU/GI toxicity. Challenges exist in comparing BT and SBRT from inconsistencies in reporting with missing data, and prospective randomised trials are needed.

The development and validation of prognostic models for overall survival in the presence of missing data in the training dataset: a strategy with a detailed example

BACKGROUND

The United Kingdom Myeloma Research Alliance (UK-MRA) Myeloma Risk Profile is a prognostic model for overall survival. It was trained and tested on clinical trial data, aiming to improve the stratification of transplant ineligible (TNE) patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. Missing data is a common problem which affects the development and validation of prognostic models, where decisions on how to address missingness have implications on the choice of methodology.

METHODS

Model building The training and test datasets were the TNE pathways from two large randomised multicentre, phase III clinical trials. Potential prognostic factors were identified by expert opinion. Missing data in the training dataset was imputed using multiple imputation by chained equations. Univariate analysis fitted Cox proportional hazards models in each imputed dataset with the estimates combined by Rubin's rules. Multivariable analysis applied penalised Cox regression models, with a fixed penalty term across the imputed datasets. The estimates from each imputed dataset and bootstrap standard errors were combined by Rubin's rules to define the prognostic model. Model assessment Calibration was assessed by visualising the observed and predicted probabilities across the imputed datasets. Discrimination was assessed by combining the prognostic separation D-statistic from each imputed dataset by Rubin's rules. Model validation The D-statistic was applied in a bootstrap internal validation process in the training dataset and an external validation process in the test dataset, where acceptable performance was pre-specified. Development of risk groups Risk groups were defined using the tertiles of the combined prognostic index, obtained by combining the prognostic index from each imputed dataset by Rubin's rules.

RESULTS

The training dataset included 1852 patients, 1268 (68.47%) with complete case data. Ten imputed datasets were generated. Five hundred twenty patients were included in the test dataset. The D-statistic for the prognostic model was 0.840 (95% CI 0.716-0.964) in the training dataset and 0.654 (95% CI 0.497-0.811) in the test dataset and the corrected D-Statistic was 0.801.

CONCLUSION

The decision to impute missing covariate data in the training dataset influenced the methods implemented to train and test the model. To extend current literature and aid future researchers, we have presented a detailed example of one approach. Whilst our example is not without limitations, a benefit is that all of the patient information available in the training dataset was utilised to develop the model.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Both trials were registered; Myeloma IX- ISRCTN68454111 , registered 21 September 2000. Myeloma XI- ISRCTN49407852 , registered 24 June 2009.

Sample sizes of prediction model studies in prostate cancer were rarely justified and often insufficient

OBJECTIVE

Developing clinical prediction models (CPMs) on data of sufficient sample size is critical to help minimize overfitting. Using prostate cancer as a clinical exemplar, we aimed to investigate to what extent existing CPMs adhere to recent formal sample size criteria, or historic rules of thumb of events per predictor parameter (EPP)≥10.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A systematic review to identify CPMs related to prostate cancer, which provided enough information to calculate minimum sample size. We compared the reported sample size of each CPM against the traditional 10 EPP rule of thumb and formal sample size criteria.

RESULTS

About 211 CPMs were included. Three of the studies justified the sample size used, mostly using EPP rules of thumb. Overall, 69% of the CPMs were derived on sample sizes that surpassed the traditional EPP≥10 rule of thumb, but only 48% surpassed recent formal sample size criteria. For most CPMs, the required sample size based on formal criteria was higher than the sample sizes to surpass 10 EPP.

CONCLUSION

Few of the CPMs included in this study justified their sample size, with most justifications being based on EPP. This study shows that, in real-world data sets, adhering to the classic EPP rules of thumb is insufficient to adhere to recent formal sample size criteria.

Efficacy and toxicity outcomes for patients treated with focal salvage high dose rate brachytherapy for locally recurrent prostate cancer

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Local recurrence of prostate cancer may be treated with salvage therapies.

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Focal salvage high dose rate brachytherapy provides good biochemical control.

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Severe genitourinary and gastrointestinal toxicities are low.

Introduction

Isolated local recurrence of prostate cancer following primary radiotherapy or brachytherapy may be treated with focal salvage high dose rate brachytherapy, although there remains an absence of high quality evidence to support this approach.

Methods

Men with prostate cancer treated consecutively between 2015 and 2018 using 19 Gy in a single fraction high dose rate brachytherapy (HDR) for locally recurrent prostate cancer were identified from an institutional database. Univariable analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between patient, disease and treatment factors with biochemical progression free survival (bPFS).

Results

43 patients were eligible for evaluation. Median follow up duration was 26 months (range 1–60). Median bPFS was 35 months (95% confidence interval 25.6–44.4). Kaplan-Meier estimates for bPFS at 1, 2 and 3 years post salvage were 95.2%, 70.6% and 41.8% respectively. On univariable Cox regression analysis, only nadir PSA was significantly associated with bPFS although the majority of patients were also treated with androgen deprivation therapy. Only one late grade 3 genitourinary toxicity was observed.

Conclusion

Focal salvage HDR brachytherapy may provide good biochemical control with a low risk of severe toxicity. Further evaluation within clinical trials are needed to establish its role in the management of locally recurrent prostate cancer.

Focal MRI-Guided Salvage High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy in Patients With Radiorecurrent Prostate Cancer

Introduction:

Whole-gland salvage treatment of radiorecurrent prostate cancer has a high rate of severe toxicity. The standard of care in case of a biochemical recurrence is androgen deprivation treatment, which is associated with morbidity and negative effects on quality of life. A salvage treatment with acceptable toxicity might postpone the start of androgen deprivation treatment, might have a positive influence on the patients’ quality of life, and might even be curative. Here, toxicity and biochemical outcome are described after magnetic resonance imaging–guided focal salvage high-dose-rate brachytherapy in patients with radiorecurrent prostate cancer.

Materials and Methods:

Seventeen patients with pathologically proven locally recurrent prostate cancer were treated with focal high-dose-rate brachytherapy in a single 19-Gy fraction using magnetic resonance imaging for treatment guidance. Primary radiotherapy consisted of external beam radiotherapy or low-dose-rate brachytherapy. Tumors were delineated with Ga-68–prostate-specific membrane antigen or F18-choline positron emission tomography in combination with multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging. All patients had a prostate-specific antigen level of less than 10 ng/mL at the time of recurrence and a prostate-specific antigen doubling time of ≥12 months. Toxicity was measured by using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.

Results:

Eight of 17 patients had follow-up interval of at least 1 year. At a median follow-up interval of 10 months (range 3-40 months), 1 patient experienced a biochemical recurrence according to the Phoenix criteria, and prostate-specific membrane antigen testing revealed that this was due to a distant nodal metastasis. One patient had a grade 3 urethral stricture at 2 years after treatment.

Conclusion:

Focal salvage high-dose-rate brachytherapy in patients with radiorecurrent prostate cancer showed grade 3 toxicity in 1 of 17 patients and a distant nodal metastasis in another patient. Whether this treatment option leads to cure in a subset of patients or whether it can successfully postpone androgen deprivation treatment needs further investigation.

Estimation of the Most Influential Factors for Survival Probability Prediction of Prostate Cancer Patients

The objective of the study was to address some important questions related to prostate cancer treatments and survivorship. One of possibility to improve the survival probability of prostate cancer patients is to improve predictive strategies. Therefore in this article was created short-term multistep ahead predictive model for survival probability prediction of prostate cancer patients. Neuro-fuzzy model was used to select the most important inputs for the predictive model. As the inputs, current and time lagged variables were used. The results could be useful for simplification of predictive models to avoid multiple inputs.

Development and internal validation of prediction models for biochemical failure and composite failure after focal salvage high intensity focused ultrasound for local radiorecurrent prostate cancer: Presentation of risk scores for individual patient prognoses

PURPOSE

Patient selection for focal salvage remains difficult. Therefore, we developed and internally validated prediction models for biochemical failure (BF) and a composite endpoint (CE) following focal salvage high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) for radiorecurrent prostate cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A prospective HIFU registry identified 150 cases (November 2006-August 2015). Recurrence was assessed with multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) combined with template prostate mapping biopsies, targeted biopsies, or systematic transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsies. Metastatic disease was ruled out with a positron emission tomography-computed tomography and a bone scan. Focal salvage HIFU consisted of quadrant-ablation, hemi-ablation, or index-lesion ablation. Cox-regression was used for BF (Phoenix-definition) and CE (BF/MRI+/biopsies+/local or systemic treatment/metastases+/prostate cancer specific mortality+). Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resampling (500 datasets) after which C-statistic and hazard ratios were adjusted. Models were calibrated and risk scores created.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 35 months (interquartile range: 22-52). Median biochemical disease-free survival (DFS) was 33 months (95% CI: 23-45). Median CE-free survival was 24 months (95% CI: 21-35). After multivariable analysis, DFS interval after primary radiotherapy, presalvage prostate-specific antigen (PSA), PSA-doubling time, prostatic volume, and T-stage (both MRI based) predicted BF. For the CE, PSA-doubling time was not predictive but additionally, primary Gleason score was. The adjusted C-statistics were 0.68 and 0.64 for BF and CE, respectively. Calibration was accurate until 48 months. The risk scores showed 3 groups, with biochemical DFS of 60%, 35%, and 7% and CE-free survival of 40%, 24%, and 0% at 4 years.

CONCLUSION

Our model, once externally validated, could allow for better selection of patients for focal salvage HIFU.

Interstitial high-dose-rate brachytherapy as salvage treatment for locally recurrent prostate cancer after definitive radiation therapy: Toxicity and 5-year outcome

PURPOSE

We report our results with interstitial high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR-BT) as a salvage therapy option after external beam therapy with or without BT. Emphasis was put on toxicity and 5-year outcome.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

From 2003 to 2011, 29 patients with local failure after previous radiotherapy for prostate cancer were treated with salvage interstitial HDR-BT. The diagnosis of local recurrence was made on the basis of choline positron emission tomography. Salvage HDR-BT was given in three fractions with a single dose of 10 Gy per fraction and weekly. The target volume covered the peripheral zone of the prostate and the positron emission tomography-positive area. Acute and late toxicities were documented according to common terminology criteria for adverse events (CTCAE v 4.0).

RESULTS

Twenty-two patients with minimum followup of 60 months were analyzed. The 5-year overall survival was 95.5% with a disease-specific survival of 100%. The 5-year biochemical control was 45%. Late grade 2 gastrointestinal toxicities were observed in two patients (9%). No grade 3 or higher gastrointestinal late toxicities were observed. Urinary incontinence found in 2 patients (9%) and grade 2 obstruction of urinary tract occurred in one patient (4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Interstitial HDR-BT was feasible and effective in the treatment of locally recurrent prostate cancer after definitive radiotherapy. The long-term toxicity was low and acceptable.