Applied Bayesian Methods in the Rheumatic Diseases

Biological and clinical insights from a randomized phase 2 study of an anti-oncostatin M monoclonal antibody in systemic sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

The cytokine oncostatin M (OSM) is implicated in the pathology of SSc. Inhibiting OSM signalling using GSK2330811 (an anti-OSM monoclonal antibody) in patients with SSc has the potential to slow or stop the disease process.

METHODS

This multicentre, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study enrolled participants ≥18 years of age with active dcSSc. Participants were randomized 3:1 (GSK2330811:placebo) in one of two sequential cohorts to receive GSK2330811 (cohort 1: 100 mg; cohort 2: 300 mg) or placebo s.c. every other week for 12 weeks. The primary endpoint was safety; blood and skin biopsy samples were collected to explore mechanistic effects on inflammation and fibrosis. Clinical efficacy was an exploratory endpoint.

RESULTS

Thirty-five participants were randomized to placebo (n = 8), GSK2330811 100 mg (n = 3) or GSK2330811 300 mg (n = 24). Proof of mechanism, measured by coordinate effects on biomarkers of inflammation or fibrosis, was not demonstrated following GSK2330811 treatment. There were no meaningful differences between GSK2330811 and placebo for any efficacy endpoints. The safety and tolerability of GSK2330811 were not favourable in the 300 mg group, with on-target, dose-dependent adverse events related to decreases in haemoglobin and platelet count that were not observed in the 100 mg or placebo groups.

CONCLUSION

Despite a robust and novel experimental medicine approach and evidence of target engagement, anticipated SSc-related biologic effects of GSK2330811 were not different from placebo and safety was unfavourable, suggesting OSM inhibition may not be a useful therapeutic strategy in SSc.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03041025; EudraCT, 2016-003417-95.

Radiography and Clinical Decision-Making in Chiropractic

The concern over x-ray exposure risks can overshadow the potential benefit of radiography, especially in cases where manual therapy is employed. Spinal malalignment cannot be accurately visualized without imaging. Manual therapy and the load tolerances of injured spinal tissues raise different criteria for the use of x-rays for spinal disorders than in medical practice. Current regulatory bodies rely on radiography risk assessments based on Linear-No-Threshold (LNT) risk models. There is a need to consider radiography guidelines for chiropractic which are different from those for medical practice. Radiography practice guidelines are summaries dominated by frequentist interpretations in the analysis of data from studies. In contrast, clinicians often employ a pseudo-Bayesian form of reasoning during the clinical decision-making process. The overrepresentation of frequentist perspectives in evidence-based practice guidelines alter decision-making away from practical assessment of a patient's needs, toward an overly cautious standard applied to patients without regard to their risk/benefit likelihoods relating to radiography. Guidelines for radiography in chiropractic to fully assess the condition of the spine and spinal alignment prior to manual therapy, especially with high velocity, low amplitude spinal manipulation (HVLA-SM), should necessarily differ from those used in medical practice.

Propensity Score Methods in Rare Disease: A Demonstration Using Observational Data in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Observational studies allow researchers to understand the natural history of rheumatic conditions, risk factors for disease development, and factors affecting important disease-related outcomes, and to estimate treatment effect from real-world data. However, this design carries a risk of confounding bias. A propensity score (PS) is a balancing score that aims to minimize the difference between study groups and consequently potential confounding effects. The score can be applied in 1 of 4 methods in observational research: matching, stratification, adjustment, and inverse probability weighting. Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a rare disease characterized by a relatively small sample size and/or low event rates. In this article, we review the PS methods. We demonstrate application of the PS methods to achieve study group balance in a rare disease using an example of risk of infection in SLE patients with hypogammaglobulinemia.