Evaluación de la validez de las funciones SCORE de bajo riesgo y calibrada para población española en las cohortes FRESCO

[Predictive validity of the risk SCORE model in a Mediterranean population with arterial hypertension]

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Hypertension is the most prevalent risk factor globally. Calculation of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients before initiation of treatment is recommended. This study aimed to assess the predictive value and clinical utility of the SCORE scale in preventing cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with hypertension.

METHODS

Patients with hypertension from the ESCARVAL-RISK cohort were included. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the SCORE scale. All deaths and cardiovascular events were recorded during a 5-year follow-up period. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were calculated for different cut-off points and the effect of different risk factors on the diagnostic accuracy of SCORE charts were assessed.

RESULTS

In a final cohort of 9834 patients, there were 555 cardiovascular events and 69 deaths. The recommended risk value for initiating drug treatment (5%) had a specificity of 92% for death and 91% for cardiovascular events, and a sensitivity of 20% for death and 22% for cardiovascular events. In addition, the scale classified 80.4% of patients who experienced a cardiovascular event and 78.3% of those who died as low risk. Age, body mass index, retinopathy and anticoagulant therapy were associated with reduced predictive ability of the SCORE scale, while being female was associated with better risk prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive ability of the SCORE scale for cardiovascular disease and total mortality in patients with hypertension is limited.

[Vascular age in a sample of general population of the sanitary area of Toledo (Spain). RICARTO study]

OBJECTIVE

To know the vascular age (VA) of a sample of general population included in the RICARTO study.

PATIENTS AND METHOD

Epidemiological study of the general population aged ≥18 from the Health Area of Toledo, based on the health card database. VA was calculated from the absolute cardiovascular risk (CVR) estimated with the Framingham and SCORE equations (type2 diabetes increased CVR in SCORE 2-fold in men and 4-fold in women). Patients with cardiovascular or renal disease were excluded. An ANCOVA analysis was conducted to adjust and compare the mean of VA by age and sex.

RESULTS

1,496 subjects (53.54% women) were analyzed. Mean (SD) age was 48.77 (14.89) years old and. Mean VA was 51.37 (19.13) with Framingham equation and 57.09 (17.63) years old with SCORE equation. VA was significantly higher in men, low education level, arterial hypertension, dyslipidemia, hypertriglyceridemia, diabetes mellitus, abdominal obesity, general obesity, smoking and in individuals with 5CVR factors vs none (P<.001 in all). Higher differences (Cohen's D >0.5) were found in non-diabetic vs diabetic people (1.58 Framingham; 2.44 SCORE), normotensive vs hypertensive subjects (1.64 Framingham; 1.19 SCORE), and non-dyslipidemia vs presence of dyslipidemia (0.95 Framingham; 0.66 SCORE).

CONCLUSIONS

VA of our sample is two and a half years older than chronological one with Framingham equation and more than eight years with SCORE equation. Control of CVR factors is the key to get a VA closer to real and to obtain a better cardiovascular health in the population.

External validation of the European and American equations for calculating cardiovascular risk in a Spanish working population

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE

This work aims to externally validate the European and American models for calculating cardiovascular risk in the primary prevention.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study of a nation-wide cohort of individuals who are active in the work force. Workers without a medical history cardiovascular disease who attended occupational health check-ups between 2004 and 2007 were included. They were followed-up on until December 2017.

RESULTS

A total of 244,236 subjects participated. Of them, 24.5% were women and the mean age was 48.10 years (SD 6.26). According to the European SCORE risk chart, the mean risk was 1.70 (SD 1.81) for men and 0.37 (SD 0.53) for women. According to the North American PCE model, the mean risk was 6.98 (SD 5.66) for men and 1.97 (SD 1.96) for women. A total of 1177 events (0.51%) were registered according to the SCORE tool and 2,330 events (1.00%) were registered according to the PCE tool. The Harrell's C-statistic was 0.746 for SCORE and 0.725 for PCE. Sensitivity and specificity for the SCORE'S 5% cut-off point were 17.59% (95%CI 15.52%-19.87%) and 95.68% (95%CI 95.59%-95.76%). Sensitivity and specificity for the PCE's 20% cut-off point were 9.06% (95%CI 7.96%-10.29%) and 97.55% (95%CI 97.48%-97.61%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The European SCORE and North American PCE models overestimate the risk in our population but with an acceptable discrimination. SCORE showed better validity indices than the PCE. The population's risk is continuously changing; therefore, it is important continue updating the equations to include information on current populations.

Statement of the Spanish Interdisciplinary Vascular Prevention Committee on the updated European Cardiovascular Prevention Guidelines

We present the adaptation for Spain of the updated European Cardiovascular Prevention Guidelines. In this update, greater stress is laid on the population approach, and especially on the promotion of physical activity and healthy diet through dietary, leisure and active transport policies in Spain. To estimate vascular risk, note should be made of the importance of recalibrating the tables used, by adapting them to population shifts in the prevalence of risk factors and incidence of vascular diseases, with particular attention to the role of chronic kidney disease. At an individual level, the key element is personalised support for changes in behaviour, adherence to medication in high-risk individuals and patients with vascular disease, the fostering of physical activity, and cessation of smoking habit. Furthermore, recent clinical trials with PCSK9 inhibitors are reviewed, along with the need to simplify pharmacological treatment of arterial hypertension to improve control and adherence to treatment. In the case of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and vascular disease or high vascular disease risk, when lifestyle changes and metformin are inadequate, the use of drugs with proven vascular benefit should be prioritised. Lastly, guidelines on peripheral arterial disease and other specific diseases are included, as is a recommendation against prescribing antiaggregants in primary prevention.

[Cardiovascular preventive recommendations. PAPPS 2020 update]

The recommendations of the semFYC's Program for Preventive Activities and Health Promotion (PAPPS) for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are presented. The following sections are included: Epidemiological review, where the current morbidity and mortality of CVD in Spain and its evolution as well as the main risk factors are described; Cardiovascular (CV) risk tables and recommendations for the calculation of CV risk; Main risk factors such as arterial hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes mellitus, describing the method for their diagnosis, therapeutic objectives and recommendations for lifestyle measures and pharmacological treatment; Indications for antiplatelet therapy, and recommendations for screening of atrial fibrillation. The quality of testing and the strength of the recommendation are included in the main recommendations.

[Statement of the Spanish Interdisciplinary Vascular Prevention Committee on the updated European Cardiovascular Prevention Guidelines]

We present the adaptation for Spain of the updated European Cardiovascular Prevention Guidelines. In this update, greater stress is laid on the population approach, and especially on the promotion of physical activity and healthy diet through dietary, leisure and active transport policies in Spain. To estimate vascular risk, note should be made of the importance of recalibrating the tables used, by adapting them to population shifts in the prevalence of risk factors and incidence of vascular diseases, with particular attention to the role of chronic kidney disease. At an individual level, the key element is personalised support for changes in behaviour, adherence to medication in high-risk individuals and patients with vascular disease, the fostering of physical activity, and cessation of smoking habit. Furthermore, recent clinical trials with PCSK9 inhibitors are reviewed, along with the need to simplify pharmacological treatment of arterial hypertension to improve control and adherence to treatment. In the case of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and vascular disease or high vascular disease risk, when lifestyle changes and metformin are inadequate, the use of drugs with proven vascular benefit should be prioritised. Lastly, guidelines on peripheral arterial disease and other specific diseases are included, as is a recommendation against prescribing antiaggregants in primary prevention.

Estimation of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease (IBERLIFERISK): A New Tool for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Primary Care

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

To develop a predictive function of lifetime cardiovascular risk, including morbidity and mortality, in a healthy working population in Spain.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study. We selected healthy workers, aged 18 to 65 years, with no history of cardiovascular disease, who underwent a health assessment between 2004 and 2007. We used 70% of the cohort to develop the risk equation, and the remaining 30% to validate the equation. Four Cox proportional hazards models were constructed using cardiovascular events and competing events as dependent variables. The same models were replicated for men and women separately. Fatal and nonfatal events were assessed until 2014.

RESULTS

A total of 762 054 individuals were selected. The mean age was 35.48 years and 71.14% were men. Significant risk variables in the model included manual occupations, being a smoker or exsmoker, diabetes mellitus, antihypertensive treatment, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid-lowering treatment; in men, the model also included alcohol consumption, body mass index, a family history of early coronary disease in first-degree relatives, renal failure, and diastolic blood pressure. The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic was 0.84 (95%CI, 0.82-0.85) in men and 0.73 (95%CI, 0.66-0.80) in women. Calibration showed underestimation in low-risk deciles and overestimation in high-risk deciles.

CONCLUSIONS

The new lifetime cardiovascular risk model has satisfactory discrimination and calibration, with better results in men than in women.