Böttcher L, Gersbach H. A Refunding Scheme to Incentivize Narrow-Spectrum Antibiotic Development.
Bull Math Biol 2022;
84:59. [PMID:
35451653 PMCID:
PMC9023703 DOI:
10.1007/s11538-022-01013-7]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2021] [Accepted: 03/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
The rapid rise of antibiotic resistance is a serious threat to global public health. The situation is exacerbated by the “antibiotics dilemma”: Developing narrow-spectrum antibiotics against resistant bacteria is most beneficial for society, but least attractive for companies, since their usage and sales volumes are more limited than for broad-spectrum drugs. After developing a general mathematical framework for the study of antibiotic resistance dynamics with an arbitrary number of antibiotics, we identify efficient treatment protocols. Then, we introduce a market-based refunding scheme that incentivizes pharmaceutical companies to develop new antibiotics against resistant bacteria and, in particular, narrow-spectrum antibiotics that target specific bacterial strains. We illustrate how such a refunding scheme can solve the antibiotics dilemma and cope with various sources of uncertainty that impede antibiotic R &D. Finally, connecting our refunding approach to the recently established Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Action Fund, we discuss how our proposed incentivization scheme could be financed.
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