[Total serum calcium and corrected calcium as severity predictors in acute pancreatitis]

The Potential Role of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-Sodium Score in Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Background and aim Acute pancreatitis is a common inflammation of the pancreas which can be severe and even potentially mortal. High rates of mortality showed the importance of immediate identification of patients at high risk and led the clinicians to refer to various scoring systems. Our aim was to investigate a clinical predictive model using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-sodium) scoring system, adapting it to acute pancreatitis patients referring to the systemic inflammatory nature of the disease and potential multi-organ failures in severe form. Methods Our multicenter study was designed retrospectively. The medical records were reviewed for the period of two years. Demographics, biochemical results, MELD-sodium scores and mortality rates were analysed. Results MELD-sodium score was found to be statistically correlated with both mortality and the severity of pancreatitis (p<0.001) and significant difference between both mild and severe (p<0.001), moderate and severe groups (p<0.001). Mortality was found to be significantly higher in patients with MELD-Na score when the cut-off value was accepted as '≥11'. Conclusion We found that MELD-sodium score was significantly associated with both severity of disease and mortality rates and also significantly effective between both mild/severe and moderate/severe groups which may be a guide for future multi-center reviews with larger patient and control groups, which can define the potential role of this non-invasive and easy-to-use predictive model in acute pancreatitis patients.

A Rapid Prognostic Score Based on Bedside Arterial Blood Gas Analysis (ABG) Established for Predicting 60-Day Adverse Outcomes in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department

Objective

To establish a rapid and concise prognosis scoring system for pancreatitis in the emergency department based on bedside arterial blood gas analysis (ABG).

Methods

A single-center, retrospective cohort study was used to establish the new scoring system, and a validation group was used to verify it. The primary endpoint was 60-day death, and secondary endpoints were 28-day death, admission to the intensive care unit (AICU), requirement for mechanical ventilation (MV) and persistent organ failure (POF). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was drawn to validate the predictive value of the new scoring system. The performance of the new scoring system was compared with that of conventional predictive scoring.

Results

443 patients were in the derivation group and 217 patients in the validation group, of which 27 and 25 died during follow-up. A total of 443 patients in the derivation group, 27 of whom died during the follow-up period. Multivariate regression analysis showed that mental status, hematocrit (HCT), base excess (BE) and Serum ionic calcium (Ca²⁺) were independent risk factors for 60-day mortality of pancreatitis, and they were used to create a new scoring system (MHBC). In the derivation and validation, the ability of MHBC (AUC= 0.922, 0.773, respectively) to predict 60-day mortality from pancreatitis was no less than that of APACHE II (AUC= 0.838, 0.748, respectively) and BISAP (AUC= 0.791, 0.750, respectively), while, MHBC is more quickly and concisely than APACHE II and BISAP. Compared with MHBC less than or equal to 2, when MHBC is greater than 2, the 28-day mortality, 60-day mortality and the incidence of AICU, MV and POF increased significantly (P <0.001).

Conclusion

The MHBC can quickly and concisely evaluate the 60-day mortality, 28-day mortality, and the incidence of AICU, MV and POF of patients with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department.

Multifactorial Scores and Biomarkers of Prognosis of Acute Pancreatitis: Applications to Research and Practice

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe inflammation of the pancreas presented with sudden onset and severe abdominal pain with a high morbidity and mortality rate, if accompanied by severe local and systemic complications. Numerous studies have been published about the pathogenesis of AP; however, the precise mechanism behind this pathology remains unclear. Extensive research conducted over the last decades has demonstrated that the first 24 h after symptom onset are critical for the identification of patients who are at risk of developing complications or death. The identification of these subgroups of patients is crucial in order to start an aggressive approach to prevent mortality. In this sense and to avoid unnecessary overtreatment, thereby reducing the financial implications, the proper identification of mild disease is also important and necessary. A large number of multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers are described to predict the severity. Despite recent progress in understanding the pathophysiology of AP, more research is needed to enable a faster and more accurate prediction of severe AP. This review provides an overview of the available multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers for predicting severe AP with a special focus on their advantages and limitations.

Red cell distribution width and red cell distribution width to total serum calcium ratio as major predictors of severity and mortality in acute pancreatitis

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Current severity scores include multiple variables and some of them are only complete within 48 h of admission. Red cell distribution width (RDW) is a simple and routine parameter that seems to be related to inflammatory status. Our aims were to evaluate the diagnostic value of RDW in severity and mortality of AP comparing with other prognostic scoring systems.

Methods

Retrospective case-control study of a total of 312 patients with AP admitted between 2014 and 2016. Patients with severe AP (cases) were compared with patients with mild AP (controls) in the 1:1 proportion. Additionally, a comparison between survivor and nonsurvivor AP patients was performed. Diagnosis and severity of AP were defined according to the revised Atlanta classification 2012. Variables evaluated included demographics, comorbidities, hospital stay, laboratorial parameters, arterial blood gas analysis, prognostic scores within 24 h of admission (Ranson, BISAP and Modified Marshall) and mortality.

Results

Included 91 cases of severe AP, most males (58.2% vs 51.6%; p = 0.228) with mean age of 64.8 ± 16.3 years (vs 67.9 ± 13.7; p = 0.239). RDW_0h was higher in patients with severe AP (14.6 ± 1.3 vs 12.7 ± 0.5; p < 0.001), as well as RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio (1.8 ± 0.3 vs 1.3 ± 0.1; p < 0.001). After multivariate and ROC curve analysis, RDW_0h (AUROC: 0.960; p < 0.001) and RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio (AUROC: 0.973; p < 0.001) were the major predictors of severe AP for a cut-off value of 13.0 (S: 92.7%; Sp: 84.3%) and 1.4 (S: 96.3%; Sp: 84.3%), respectively. These factors were superior to prognostic scores, such as Ranson (AUROC: 0.777; p < 0.001; cut-off: 3.0), BISAP (AUROC: 0.732; p < 0.001; cut-off: 2.0) and Modified Marshall (AUROC: 0.756; p < 0.001; cut-off: 1.0). The mortality rate was 8.8% (16/182), all cases associated with severe AP (17.6%; 16/91). RDW_0h and RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio were higher in nonsurvivor AP patients (15.3 ± 1.4 vs 13.5 ± 1.3; p < 0.001 and 2.0 ± 0.3 vs 1.6 ± 0.3; p < 0.001, respectively). In multivariate and ROC curve analysis, RDW_0h (AUROC: 0.842; p < 0.001; cut-off: 14.0), RDW_24h (AUROC: 0.848; p < 0.001; cut-off: 13.8) and RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio (AUROC: 0.820; p < 0.001; cut-off: 1.7) were independent predictors for AP mortality, superior to conventional prognostic scoring systems Ranson (AUROC: 0.640; p = 0.003; cut-off:3.0), BISAP (AUROC: 0.693; p = 0.017; cut-off: 2.0) and Modified Marshall (AUROC: 0.806; p < 0.001; cut-off:1.0).

Conclusions

RDW is a simple routine parameter, available at admission. This AP cohort showed that RDW_0h > 13.0 and RDW_0h-to-total serum calcium ratio > 1.4 were excellent predictors for severity and RDW_0h > 14.0 and RDW_0h-to-total serum calcium ratio > 1.7 were very-good predictors for mortality, being superior to conventional prognostic scoring systems.

Prediction of Severity of Acute Pancreatitis Using Total Serum Calcium and Albumin-Corrected Calcium: A Prospective Study in Tertiary Center Hospital in Nepal

Introduction

Total calcium (TC) and albumin-corrected calcium (ACC) are easily accessible AP severity tests in the Primary Health Care Center of Nepal. The aim of the study was to evaluate TC and ACC as prognostic severity markers in acute pancreatitis (AP).

Methods

All patients admitted in Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital with the diagnosis of AP were studied prospectively over a period of one year from January 2015 to January 2016. TC and ACC were measured in the first 24 hours of admission in each patient. The modified Marshall score was determined at admission and at 48 hours and at any point of time during admission as per the need of the patient. Severity of acute pancreatitis was defined as per the Revised Atlanta Classification 2012.

Results

80 patients of AP were included in the study. Among them, 14% were categorized as having severe AP. The mean total calcium was 8.22, 7.51, and 6.98 for mild, moderate, and severe AP, respectively, which was significant at 0.001.

Conclusion

TC and ACC, measured within the first 24 hours, are useful severity predictors in acute pancreatitis.

Hypocalcemic tetany: a simple bedside marker of poor outcome in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Hypocalcemia is a marker of poor prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP) but the prognostic significance of hypocalcemic tetany in patients with AP has not been studied. We aimed to determine the prognostic significance of hypocalcemic tetany in patients with AP.

METHODS

Consecutive patients of AP who presented within 7 days of symptoms were included. Serum calcium levels were measured on admission and the patients were divided into two groups based on the presence (group 1) or absence of hypocalcemia (group 2). Chvostek and Trousseau signs were sought in all patients with hypocalcemia and the outcome measures were compared between patients with normocalcemia, asymptomatic and symptomatic hypocalcemia (tetany). The outcome parameters assessed were persistent organ failure (POF), need for intervention, and mortality.

RESULTS

Of 105 patients (53 male; mean age 37.34±12.62 years), 37 (35.2%) had hypocalcemia (group 1) and 68 (64.8%) had normal corrected serum calcium levels (group 2). Patients with hypocalcemia had significantly higher frequency of POF, mortality and need for intervention (P<0.05). Twelve of 37 (32.4%) patients with hypocalcemia had tetany. Patients with tetany had significantly lower serum corrected calcium and ionized calcium levels compared with patients with asymptomatic hypocalcemia (P<0.05). Patients with tetany had significantly higher mortality rates compared with patients with asymptomatic hypocalcemia (100% vs. 8%; P=0.00001) as well as POF (100% vs. 32%; P=0.000006).

CONCLUSION

Presence of hypocalcemic tetany in AP patients bears a poor prognosis and is associated with increased mortality.

Role of Biomarkers in Diagnosis and Prognostic Evaluation of Acute Pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis is a potentially life threatening disease. The spectrum of severity of the illness ranges from mild self-limiting disease to a highly fatal severe necrotizing pancreatitis. Despite intensive research and improved patient care, overall mortality still remains high, reaching up to 30–40% in cases with infected pancreatic necrosis. Although little is known about the exact pathogenesis, it has been widely accepted that premature activation of digestive enzymes within the pancreatic acinar cell is the trigger that leads to autodigestion of pancreatic tissue which is followed by infiltration and activation of leukocytes. Extensive research has been done over the past few decades regarding their role in diagnosis and prognostic evaluation of severe acute pancreatitis. Although many standalone biochemical markers have been studied for early assessment of severity, C-reactive protein still remains the most frequently used along with Interleukin-6. In this review we have discussed briefly the pathogenesis and the role of different biochemical markers in the diagnosis and severity evaluation in acute pancreatitis.