The Role of Herding Behaviour in Exit Choice During Evacuation

Modeling and Simulation of Crowd Pre-Evacuation Decision-Making in Complex Traffic Environments

Human movements in complex traffic environments have been successfully simulated by various models. It is crucial to improve crowd safety and urban resilience. However, few studies focus on reproducing human behavior and predicting escape reaction time in the initial judgement stage in complex traffic environments. In this paper, a pedestrian pre-evacuation decision-making model considering pedestrian heterogeneity is proposed for complex environments. Firstly, the model takes different obvious factors into account, including cognition, information, experience, habits, stress, and decision-making ability. Then, according to the preference of the escapees, the personnel decision-making in each stage is divided into two types: stay and escape. Finally, multiple influencing factors are selected to construct the regression equation for prediction of the escape opportunity. The results show that: (1) Choices of escape opportunity are divided into several stages, which are affected by the pedestrian individual risk tolerance, risk categories strength, distance from danger, and reaction of the neighborhood crowd. (2) There are many important factors indicating the pedestrian individual risk tolerance, in which Gen, Group, Time and Mode are a positive correlation, while Age and Zone are a negative correlation. (3) The analysis of the natural response rate of different evacuation strategies shows that 19.81% of people evacuate immediately. The research in this paper can better protect public safety and promote the normal activities of the population.

Agent-Based Analysis of Urban Spaces Using Space Syntax and Spatial Cognition Approaches: A Case Study in Bari, Italy

The present study provides a reflection on the agent-based intelligence of urban spatial environments through the comparison of a formal quantitative approach, i.e., space syntax, and a qualitative experimentation based on the spatial cognition approach. Until recently, space syntax was adopted by urban planners and designers to support urban design and planning decisions, based on an analysis of the urban physical environment. Researchers in the cognitive science field have increased their attempts to address space syntax techniques to better understand the relationships of cognitive spatial agents with the spatial features of urban environments. In this context, the experimental approach focuses on the qualities of the environment as interacted, perceived and interpreted by cognitive agents and reflects on the role which it plays in affecting spatial decisions and route choices. The present paper aimed to explore the extent to which possible integration between the different approaches can provide insights on agent-based decisions in actions and behavioural processes in space for useful perspectives in urban analysis and planning. Findings suggest relevant correlations between the experimentation results and space syntax predictions when a correspondence of some aspects can be found. Conversely, interesting qualitative insights from the spatial cognition approach are pointed out to enrich the configurational analysis. The potential and constraints of each approach and the ways of combining these are presented. Evidence supports the suitability of the proposal outlined in the present paper within the framework of urban planning practice.