The distinction between discriminability and reliability in forensic science

Methodological support for forensic science in the USA and Ukraine: A comparative study

The significant potential of proper methodological support in solving key tasks of forensic expert activity is noted. The procedure for certification and state registration of forensic examination methods introduced in Ukraine is analyzed. The composition and procedure for the activities of the advisory bodies of the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine which determine the relevance and priority of forensic examination research are investigated. The author identifies the areas of concern in the methodological support of forensic institutions, the addressing of which relates to the activities of the State in terms of legal support of forensics at the legislative and departmental regulatory levels. The requirements to the registration of research results by grantees of the US National Institute of Justice are clarified. The article compares research costs, access to scientific results, and promising research topics in the field of forensic science in the United States and Ukraine. Certain ways of solving the identified problems related to the methodological support of forensic expert activity were proposed, taking into account the specifics of the legal system of Ukraine and the experience of the National Institute of Justice in the United States. The author emphasizes the need for further development and strengthening of cooperation between forensic institutions and international organizations in the field of standardization.

Advancing forensic body fluid identification: A comparative analysis of RT-LAMP+CRISPR-Cas12a and established mRNA-based methods

In forensic science, the analysis of body fluid evidence determines the cellular origin of a sample, aiding in the reconstruction of a potential crime. Messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) based confirmatory tests address limitations of current conventional methods, providing increased specificity and sensitivity, minimal sample consumption, and the detection of a broader range of body fluids. However, they require expensive instrumentation, longer reaction times, and lack portability. Reverse-transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) coupled with clustered regular interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) with CRISPR-associated protein 12a (Cas12a) has the potential to overcome these challenges. This approach offers reduced testing time and cost, while potentially providing equivalent sensitivity and specificity, as observed in the field of viral diagnostics. Visual detection capabilities enable the development of rapid, portable screening tests suitable for testing at the crime scene. In the context of a sexual assault investigation, RT-LAMP+CRISPR-Cas12a could potentially increase the efficiency and detection rate. This study compares this novel method to two other mRNA-based methods, endpoint reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) multiplex assay CellTyper 2, and a real-time reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) multiplex assay. The tests' sensitivity and specificity were evaluated on single-source and mixed body fluid samples, including rectal mucosa, a fluid which is minimally explored in forensic literature. The RT-qPCR assay demonstrated the highest sensitivity, specificity, and precision in mixed samples. In addition, RT-qPCR offers a greater linear dynamic range, faster processing time and easier methodology compared to CellTyper 2, only limited by its expensive nature. Notably, rectal mucosa samples exhibited non-specific marker expression of CellTyper 2 markers and expression of CYP2B7P (vaginal fluid) for all methods. This emphasises the need for a dedicated rectal mucosa marker. RT-LAMP+CRISPR-Cas12a exhibited a high specificity, displaying off-target expression of CYP2B7P in two fluid types. However, the method lacked sensitivity and precision for most markers except MMP3 (menstrual blood), demonstrating detection down to 1:10,000 with 100 % specificity. RT-LAMP+CRISPR requires further development, but its quick, inexpensive nature and high specificity suggest it has potential as a confirmatory test that could reduce the limitations of existing methods.

A guide to measuring expert performance in forensic pattern matching

Decisions in forensic science are often binary. A firearms expert must decide whether a bullet was fired from a particular gun or not. A face comparison expert must decide whether a photograph matches a suspect or not. A fingerprint examiner must decide whether a crime scene fingerprint belongs to a suspect or not. Researchers who study these decisions have therefore quantified expert performance using measurement models derived largely from signal detection theory. Here we demonstrate that the design and measurement choices researchers make can have a dramatic effect on the conclusions drawn about the performance of forensic examiners. We introduce several performance models - proportion correct, diagnosticity ratio, and parametric and non-parametric signal detection measures - and apply them to forensic decisions. We use data from expert and novice fingerprint comparison decisions along with a resampling method to demonstrate how experimental results can change as a function of the task, case materials, and measurement model chosen. We also graphically show how response bias, prevalence, inconclusive responses, floor and ceiling effects, case sampling, and number of trials might affect one's interpretation of expert performance in forensics. Finally, we discuss several considerations for experimental and diagnostic accuracy studies: (1) include an equal number of same-source and different-source trials; (2) record inconclusive responses separately from forced choices; (3) include a control comparison group; (4) counterbalance or randomly sample trials for each participant; and (5) present as many trials to participants as is practical.

Reliability of predictive models based on the mesiodistal and buccolingual diameters of permanent canine teeth for sex estimation in forensic contexts: A systematic review and meta-analysis

This study aimed to assess the reliability of predictive models for sex estimation based on permanent canine size. A systematic literature review was performed by following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA). Six electronic databases were searched as the primary source of information. As a secondary source of information, a manual search was performed to identify additional relevant studies not captured in the initial search. After assessing the methodological quality and risk of bias with the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Tools for Systematic Reviews, the data were subjected to statistical tests for a meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy and Higgin's I2 statistic to evaluate the heterogeneity between the eligible studies. The systematic search resulted in 21 studies for qualitative synthesis, and 13 of them were selected for quantitative analysis. The analysis of 25 univariate predictive models showed an estimated sensitivity of 77.2 % and specificity of 67.1 %. Meta-regression analyses were performed for dental arch, the type of diameter and dental region outcomes for these univariate predictive models. Dental arch (p = 0.029) and the dental region of measurement (p = 0.001) were significant modifiers. The analysis of 25 multivariate predictive models showed an estimated sensitivity of 82.6 % and specificity of 70.1 %. There were significant methodological limitations and substantial heterogeneity among the included studies. Based on the results, there is insufficient high-quality scientific evidence to support the safe use of predictive models based on permanent canine measurements as the exclusive method for sex estimation in forensic settings.

Understanding 'error' in the forensic sciences: A primer

This paper distils seven key lessons about 'error' from a collaborative webinar series between practitioners at Victoria Police Forensic Services Department and academics. It aims to provide the common understanding of error necessary to foster interdisciplinary dialogue, collaboration and research. The lessons underscore the inevitability, complexity and subjectivity of error, as well as opportunities for learning and growth. Ultimately, we argue that error can be a potent tool for continuous improvement and accountability, enhancing the reliability of forensic sciences and public trust. It is hoped the shared understanding provided by this paper will support future initiatives and funding for collaborative developments in this vital domain.

Investigative fatigue: how sleep-circadian factors shape criminal investigations

Investigating criminal complaints and identifying culprits to be prosecuted in the court of law is an essential process for law-enforcement and public safety. However, law-enforcement investigators operate under very challenging conditions due to stressful environments, understaffing, and public scrutiny, which factors into investigative errors (e.g. uncleared cases). This paper argues that one contributing factor to investigative failures involves sleep and circadian disruption of investigators themselves, known to be prevalent among law-enforcement. By focusing on investigative interviewing, this analysis illustrates how sleep and circadian disruption could impact investigations by considering three broad phases of (1) preparation, (2) information elicitation, and (3) assessment and corroboration. These phases are organized in a framework that outlines theory-informed pathways in need of empirical attention, with special focus on effort and decision-making processes critical to investigations. While existing evidence is limited, preliminary findings support some elements of investigative fatigue. The paper concludes by placing investigative fatigue in a broader context of investigative work while providing recommendations for future research throughout. This paper is part of the Sleep and Circadian Health in the Justice System Collection.

Partial validation of multiplexed real-time quantitative PCR assays for forensic body fluid identification

Confirmatory body fluid identification using messenger RNA (mRNA) is a well-established technique to address issues encountered with conventional testing - such as poor sensitivity, specificity, and a lack of available tests for all body fluids of interest. For over a decade, endpoint reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays have been used in forensic casework for such purposes. However, in comparison with real-time quantitative RT-PCR (RT-qPCR), endpoint RT-PCR has lower sensitivity, precision, and linear dynamic range. This research details the multiplexing and partial validation of confirmatory RT-qPCR assays. We have previously described novel assays for a range of body fluid targets and identified an optimal commercial kit for their amplification. Here, multiplexing was undertaken to form three assays: circulatory blood (SLC4A1) and menstrual fluid (STC1), saliva (HTN3) and vaginal material (CYP2B7P), and spermatozoa (PRM1) and seminal fluid (KLK2), all including a synthetic internal control RNA. Partial validation of the multiplexed assays incorporated the MIQE guidelines, ISO requirements, and SWGDAM guidelines. Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, each marker was significantly different from an uninformative assay and optimal cut-offs were all above 35 cycles. All assays showed a wide LDR (ranging from 3 to 5 logs with most R2 > 0.99), and high precision (most mean CV < 1 %). STC1 showed some instances of sporadic expression in blood, semen, and vaginal material at high CT values. CYP2B7P showed off-target expression in semen and blood. The sensitivities were approximated as; saliva: 1 in 1,000 dilution of a whole buccal swab, circulatory blood: 0.01-0.1 µL blood, menstrual fluid: 1 in 10,000 dilution of a whole menstrual swab, spermatozoa: 0.001 µL semen, seminal fluid: 0.01 µL semen, and vaginal material: 1 in 1,000 dilution of a whole vaginal swab. A total of 16 mock body fluid extract mixtures and 18 swab mixtures were tested and had 100% and 99% detection of target markers below each specific cut-off, respectively. Some mixtures containing high volumes of blood and semen showed off-target CYP2B7P expression. The successful application of a probabilistic model to the RT-qPCR data was also demonstrated. Further work will involve full developmental validation.

The effect of surgical masks on identification decisions from masked and unmasked lineups

While research has shown that wearing a disguise hinders lineup identifications, less is known about how to conduct lineups in cases of disguised perpetrators. We examined the influence of surgical masks, worn during a crime event (encoding) and within lineups (retrieval), on eyewitness identification accuracy. In our experiment, 452 participants watched a mock-crime video and identified the perpetrator from either a target-present or a target-absent simultaneous lineup. Contrary to expectations based on the encoding specificity principle, we did not find that matching the presence of masks in the lineup to the encoding condition increased identification accuracy. Instead, compared to the condition with no masks at encoding and retrieval, the presence of masks at either stage negatively affected discriminability and undermined the predictive utility of confidence and decision time. Our findings indicate that when a witness has encountered a masked perpetrator, presenting them with a masked lineup may not be necessary.

The inconclusive category, entropy, and forensic firearm identification

There has been extensive recent discussion of the difficulty in estimating meaningful error rates in forensic firearms examinations, and other areas of pattern evidence. The 2016 President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) report was clear in criticizing many forensic disciplines as lacking the types of studies that would provide error rate measurements seen in other scientific fields. However, there is a substantial lack of consensus on the approach to measuring an "error rate" for fields such as forensic firearm examination that include in the conclusion scale the "inconclusive" category, as occurs in the Association of Firearm and Tool Mark Examiners (AFTE) Range of Conclusions and many other such fields. Many authors appear to assume the error rate calculated in the binary decision model is the only appropriate way to report errors, but there have been attempts made to adapt the error rate from the binary decision model to scientific fields in which the inconclusive category is viewed as a meaningful outcome of the examination process. In this study we present three neural networks of differing complexity and performance trained to classify the outlines of ejector marks on cartridge cases fired from different firearm models, as a model system for examining the performance of various metrics of error in systems using the inconclusive category. We also discuss an entropy, or information, based method to assess the similarity of classifications to ground truth that is applicable to range of conclusion scales, even when the inconclusive category is used.

A Metabolomics-Based Study on the Discriminative Classification Models and Toxicological Mechanism of Estazolam Fatal Intoxication

Fatal intoxication with sedative-hypnotic drugs is increasing yearly. However, the plasma drug concentration data for fatal intoxication involving these substances are not systematic and even overlap with the intoxication group. Therefore, developing a more precise and trustworthy approach to determining the cause of death is necessary. This study analyzed mice plasma and brainstem samples using the liquid chromatography-high resolution tandem mass spectrometry (LC-HR MS/MS)-based metabolomics method to create discriminative classification models for estazolam fatal intoxication (EFI). The most perturbed metabolic pathway between the EFI and EIND (estazolam intoxication non-death) was examined, Both EIND and EFI groups were administered 500 mg of estazolam per 100 g of body weight. Mice that did not die beyond 8 hours were treated with cervical dislocation and were classified into the EIND groups; the lysine degradation pathway was verified by qPCR (Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction), metabolite quantitative and TEM (transmission electron microscopy) analysis. Non-targeted metabolomics analysis with EFI were the experimental group and four hypoxia-related non-drug-related deaths (NDRDs) were the control group. Mass spectrometry data were analyzed with Compound Discoverer (CD) 3.1 software and multivariate statistical analyses were performed using the online software MetaboAnalyst 5.0. After a series of analyses, the results showed the discriminative classification model in plasma was composed of three endogenous metabolites: phenylacetylglycine, creatine and indole-3-lactic acid, and in the brainstem was composed of palmitic acid, creatine, and indole-3-lactic acid. The specificity validation results showed that both classification models distinguished between the other four sedatives-hypnotics, with an area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.991, and the classification models had an extremely high specificity. When comparing different doses of estazolam, the AUC value of each group was larger than 0.80, and the sensitivity was also high. Moreover, the stability results showed that the AUC value was equal to or very close to 1 in plasma samples stored at 4 °C for 0, 1, 5, 10 and 15 days; the predictive power of the classification model was stable within 15 days. The results of lysine degradation pathway validation revealed that the EFI group had the highest lysine and saccharopine concentrations (mean (ng/mg) = 1.089 and 1.2526, respectively) when compared to the EIND and control group, while the relative expression of SDH (saccharopine dehydrogenase) showed significantly lower in the EFI group (mean = 1.206). Both of these results were statistically significant. Furthermore, TEM analysis showed that the EFI group had the more severely damaged mitochondria. This work gives fresh insights into the toxicological processes of estazolam and a new method for identifying EFI-related causes of mortality.

Statistics of fingerprint minutiae frequency and distribution based on automatic minutiae detection method

The Daubert case in Philadelphia in 1999 caused a debate about the scientificity of fingerprint evidence. Since then, the current fingerprint identification system has been constantly challenged and questioned. Quantitative identification technology based on the statistics of fingerprint minutiae has become a new research hot spot. In this paper, an automatic detection algorithm is designed to achieve automatic classification of fingerprint minutiae using the deep convolution neural network YOLOv5 model. Then the occurrence frequencies of minutiae are statistically evaluated in 619,297 fingerprint images. The results show that the frequency ranges (unit%) of six types of minutiae per finger are ridge endings [68.49, 70.81], bifurcations [26.37, 27.26], independent ridges [1.533, 1.626], spurs [1.129, 1.198], lakes [0.4588, 0.4963], crossovers [0.3034, 0.3256]. The results also show that there are differences in the distribution frequency of the six types of minutiae in the ten finger positions ( thumb, middle, ring, index and little finger of the left and right hand) and in the four finger patterns ( arch, left loop, right loop and whorl). From the quantitative point of view of fingerprint identification, this paper calculates the number and frequency ranges of six types of minutiae, distinguishes the evaluation value of each type of minutiae, and provides the basic data support for establishing a probability model of fingerprint identification in the future.

How to make better forensic decisions

Much of forensic practice today involves human decisions about the origins of patterned sensory evidence, such as tool marks and fingerprints discovered at a crime scene. These decisions are made by trained observers who compare the evidential pattern to an exemplar pattern produced by the suspected source of the evidence. The decision consists of a determination as to whether the two patterns are similar enough to have come from the same source. Although forensic pattern comparison disciplines have for decades played a valued role in criminal investigation and prosecution, the extremely high personal and societal costs of failure-the conviction of innocent people-has elicited calls for caution and for the development of better practices. These calls have been heard by the scientific community involved in the study of human information processing, which has begun to offer much-needed perspectives on sensory measurement, discrimination, and classification in a forensic context. Here I draw from a well-established theoretical and empirical approach in sensory science to illustrate the vulnerabilities of contemporary pattern comparison disciplines and to suggest specific strategies for improvement.

The strange persistence of (source) "identification" claims in forensic literature through descriptivism, diagnosticism and machinism

Many forensic scientists consider that identification (individualisation) - in the sense of statements of the kind "the questioned item and the known item come from the same source" - is a concept that is central to their discipline. This is so despite decade-long, fundamental critiques levelled by both practitioners and academics against the conceptual and practical feasibility of forensic identification. Oddly, there is a constant stream of publications in (peer-reviewed) forensic science journals that treat forensic identification axiomatically as a valid object of study, sidestepping the fundamental critiques. This paper reviews and discusses three exemplary strands of publications that exemplify this persistent trend. These strands are called descriptivism, diagnosticism and machinism. The latter term refers to methods borrowed from the now increasingly popular approaches used in the field of machine learning. In turn, descriptivism and diagnosticism refer to general design aspects of mainstream research methods, illustrated here through a critical review of two recent papers on, respectively, forensic odontology and a framework for interpreting fingerprint evidence. The critique of the use of 'identification' in these strands of publication includes, but goes beyond, semantic details and the reiteration of long-known shortcomings of obsolete technical language such as 'match' and 'matching'. Specifically, this paper exposes deeper problems such as the subtle and argumentatively unfounded carrying-over of source conclusions to ultimate issues and the use probability concepts for questions that require more than the mere quantification of uncertainty. This paper submits that in order to foster trust in an era of continually expanding publishing activities, it should be a vital interest to forensic science journals to better examine what identification-related research can and cannot legitimately purport to achieve.