Nutrient loadings from urban catchments under climate change scenarios: case studies in Stockholm, Sweden

Predicting stormwater nitrogen loads from a cold-region urban catchment in year 2050 under the impacts of climate change and urban densification

Urban stormwater is a primary source of pollution for receiving water, but there is a shortage of studies on pollutant loads from urban catchments in cold regions. In this study, we coupled a build-up and wash-off model (in Mike Urban) with a climate change model to assess the impacts of climate change and urban densification on stormwater nitrogen loads (TN, TKN, NOx-N, and TAN) in an urban catchment in Canada. We calibrated and validated the Mike Urban model against observed event mean concentrations and nitrogen loads from 2010 to 2016. Results show that the nitrogen loads were mainly governed by rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and antecedent dry days. Future precipitation data were downscaled using the Global Climate Models (GCMs), and three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.5, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) were used. Modeling results show that the TN, TKN, NOx-N, and TAN loads in 2050 will increase by 28.5 - 45.2% from May to September under RCP 2.5 compared to those from 2010 to 2016, by 34.6 - 49.9% under RCP 4.5, and by 39.4 - 53.5% under RCP 8.5. The increase of our projected TN load (from 1.33 to 2.93 kg·N/ha) is similar or slightly higher than the limited studies in other urban catchments. This study provides a reference for predicting stormwater nitrogen loads in urban catchments in cold regions.

Transport process and source contribution of nitrogen in stormwater runoff from urban catchments

Nitrogen in urban stormwater has been widely studied, and effective management of nitrogen pollution is critical for improving urban stormwater and receiving water quality. This requires an in-depth understanding of the transport process and source contribution to both dissolved and particulate nitrogen in stormwater from urban catchments. In this study, 123 stormwater runoff samples were collected from an urban catchment during different rainfall events. Dissolved and particulate nitrogen concentrations in roof runoff, road runoff, and sewer flow were analyzed. The concentration of dissolved nitrogen was higher in roof runoff than in road runoff and sewer flow. However, the concentration of particulate nitrogen was lower in roof runoff than in road runoff and sewer flow. Isotopic analysis and Bayesian mixing models showed that road runoff was the largest source contributor of both nitrate and particulate organic nitrogen (PON) in sewer flow discharged from the study catchment. In addition, road runoff contributed the majority of PON associated with coarse particles (>105 μm), whereas PON associated with fine particles (<105 μm) was primarily washed-off of sewer sediments. The results provided several suggestions for the management of nitrogen pollution in urban catchments. This study could help to fully understand the transport and sources of nitrogen pollution in urban stormwater and provide recommendations to the government for implementing appropriate stormwater management strategies to minimize stormwater pollution.

Impact assessment of projected climate change on diffuse phosphorous loss in Xin'anjiang catchment, China

Diffuse nutrient loss is a serious threat to water security and has severely deteriorated water quality throughout the world. Xin'anjiang catchment, as a main drinking water source for Hangzhou City, has been a national concern for water environment protection with payment for watershed services construction. Detection of diffuse phosphorous (DP) pollution dynamics under climate change is significant for sustainable water quality management. In this study, the impact of projected climate change on DP load was analyzed using SWAT to simulate the future changes of diffuse components (carriers: water discharge and sediment; nutrient: DP) at both station and sub-catchment scales under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Results showed that wetting and warming years were expected with increasing tendencies of both precipitation and temperature in the two future periods (2020s: 2021~2030, 2030s: 2031~2040) except in the 2020s in the RCP2.6 scenario, and the annual average increasing ratios of precipitation and temperature reached - 1.79~3.79% and 0.48~1.27 °C, respectively, comparing with those in the baseline (2000s: 2001~2010). Climate change evidently altered annual and monthly average water discharge and sediment load, while it has a remarkable impact on the timing and monthly value of DP load at station scale. DP load tended to increase in the non-flood season at Yuliang due to strengthened nutrient flushing from rice land into rivers with increasing precipitation and enhanced phosphorous cycle in soil layers with increasing temperature, while it tended to decrease in the flood season at Yuliang and in most months at Tunxi due to restricted phosphorous reaction with reduced dissolved oxygen content and enhanced dilution effect. Spatial variability existed in the changes of sediment load and DP load at sub-catchment scale due to climate change. DP load tended to decrease in most sub-catchments and was the most remarkable in the RCP8.5 scenario (2020s, - 9.00~2.63%; 2030s, - 11.16~7.89%), followed by RCP2.6 (2020s, - 10.00~2.90%; 2030s, - 9.00~6.63%) and RCP4.5 (2020s, - 6.81~5.49%, 2030s, - 10.00~9.09%) scenarios. Decreasing of DP load mainly aggregated in the western and eastern mountainous regions, while it tended to increase in the northern and middle regions. This study was expected to provide insights into diffuse nutrient loss control and management in Xin'anjiang catchment, and scientific references for the implementation of water environmental protection in China.

Warming effects on the urban hydrology in cold climate regions

While approximately 338 million people in the Northern hemisphere live in regions that are regularly snow covered in winter, there is little hydro-climatologic knowledge in the cities impacted by snow. Using observations and modelling we have evaluated the energy and water exchanges of four cities that are exposed to wintertime snow. We show that the presence of snow critically changes the impact that city design has on the local-scale hydrology and climate. After snow melt, the cities return to being strongly controlled by the proportion of built and vegetated surfaces. However in winter, the presence of snow masks the influence of the built and vegetated fractions. We show how inter-year variability of wintertime temperature can modify this effect of snow. With increasing temperatures, these cities could be pushed towards very different partitioning between runoff and evapotranspiration. We derive the dependency of wintertime runoff on this warming effect in combination with the effect of urban densification.

"Diffusive Gradients in Thin Films" Techniques Provide Representative Time-Weighted Average Measurements of Inorganic Nutrients in Dynamic Freshwater Systems

Nutrient concentrations in freshwater are highly variable over time, with changes driven by weather events, anthropogenic sources, modifications to catchment hydrology or habitats, and internal biogeochemical processes. Measuring infrequently collected grab samples is unlikely to adequately represent nutrient concentrations in such dynamic systems. In contrast, in situ passive sampling techniques, such as the "diffusive gradients in thin films" (DGT) technique, provide time-weighted average analyte concentrations over the entire deployment time. A pair of recently developed DGT techniques for nitrate (A520E-DGT) and ammonium (PrCH-DGT), as well as the Metsorb-DGT technique for phosphate, were used to monitor inorganic nutrients in different freshwater systems (i.e., streams and wetlands) with a range of environmental values and that were affected by different catchment types. Measurements of grab samples collected frequently (1-2 times daily, 8-10 a.m. and 2-4 p.m.) showed that concentrations of NH₄-N and NO₃-N changed dramatically in most of the studied freshwater systems over short time scales, while there were only relatively small fluctuations in PO₄-P. The DGT measurements were highly representative in comparison with the average nutrient concentrations obtained from daily grab samples over short-term (24 h) and long-term (72 h) deployments. The ratios of DGT-labile concentrations to the average concentrations from grab samples were between 1.00 and 1.12 over the studied deployment periods. The results of this study confirmed that DGT measurements provided a reliable and robust method for monitoring NH₄-N, NO₃-N, and PO₄-P in a diverse range of dynamic freshwater systems.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Cooling and eutrophication of southern Chilean lakes

Understanding the impacts of global warming and human-disturbances on lakes is required for implementing management strategies aimed at mitigating the decline of the quality and availability of water for humans. We assessed temporal trends in water parameters, and the contribution of land use to the eutrophication of the largest lakes of central-southern Chile. The mean values of water parameters varied seasonally, with lakes Chapo and Caburgua exhibiting lower pH, temperature, and N/P ratio values. Over the assessed period (19 years), we found a temporal reduction in water conductivity and temperature of the lakes. The concentration of NO3(-)-N, PO4(3-)-P and dissolved oxygen increased in all the lakes, but pH increased in eight out of the ten lakes. The negative temporal trend in temperature was more pronounced as the depth level increased. Lakes whose basins had a higher percentage of forest plantation and urban areas had larger values of Chlorophyll a and pH, as well as, smaller values of dissolved oxygen. Lakes whose basins included larger percentages of native forest had smaller nutrient (NO3(-)-N, PO4(3-)-P) concentrations. Our findings suggest that decreased rainfall in central-southern Chile due to climate change may cause a decrease of particulate material that is carried by tributaries into the lakes. The observed temporal decrease in temperature, especially at the deeper levels, may be explained by the rapid melting of glaciers. Although the studied lakes are classified as oligotrophic, deforestation and expansion of urban areas around the lakes have led to increased nutrient input, thus accelerating their eutrophication.

Anthropogenic phosphorus flows under different scenarios for the city of Stockholm, Sweden

Today, concerns prevail about the unsustainable use of phosphorus and worldwide eutrophication, thus requiring efficient management of phosphorus flows. With increasing population and associated urban growth, urban management of phosphorus flows in the perspectives of recycling, eutrophication and total budget becomes increasingly important. This study mapped phosphorus flows for a reference year (2013) and a future year (2030) using different scenarios for the city of Stockholm, Sweden. The results indicated that the Swedish goal of recycling phosphorus from wastewater would cover the majority of the total phosphorus budget for Stockholm. However, in 2013, only 10% of phosphorus was recycled for agricultural use, around half of which was from sewage sludge and the other half from food waste. Almost 50% of total phosphorus was sent to landfill/mining waste capping with sewage sludge, for economic reasons and lack of market. Among the scenarios of upstream and downstream urban management options studied in combination with population growth, recovery of phosphorus from sewage sludge had the greatest potential to increase the fraction recycled to agriculture. However, only upstream measures, e.g. changed diet, were able to reduce the total phosphorus budget. Urban management of phosphorus flows based on the different perspectives of recycling, eutrophication or total budget was shown to potentially result in different preferred management actions and both upstream and downstream measures need to be considered. Moreover, management needs to pay attention to small but environmentally sensitive flows, particularly when setting city goals on phosphorus recycling by percentage in a large budget.