High-resolution satellite-based analysis of ground-level PM2.5 for the city of Montreal

Contribution of Satellite-Derived Aerosol Optical Depth PM2.5 Bayesian Concentration Surfaces to Respiratory-Cardiovascular Chronic Disease Hospitalizations in Baltimore, Maryland

The fine particulate matter baseline (PMB), which includes PM_2.5 monitor readings fused with Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model predictions, using the Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM), is less accurate in rural areas without monitors. To address this issue, an upgraded HBM was used to form four experimental aerosol optical depth (AOD)-PM_2.5 concentration surfaces. A case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression evaluated the contribution of the AOD-PM_2.5 surfaces and PMB to four respiratory-cardiovascular hospital events in all 99 12 km² CMAQ grids, and in grids with and without ambient air monitors. For all four health outcomes, only two AOD-PM_2.5 surfaces, one not kriged (PMC) and the other kriged (PMCK), had significantly higher Odds Ratios (ORs) on lag days 0, 1, and 01 than PMB in all grids, and in grids without monitors. In grids with monitors, emergency department (ED) asthma PMCK on lag days 0, 1 and 01 and inpatient (IP) heart failure (HF) PMCK ORs on lag days 01 were significantly higher than PMB ORs. Warm season ORs were significantly higher than cold season ORs. Independent confirmation of these results should include AOD-PM_2.5 concentration surfaces with greater temporal-spatial resolution, now easily available from geostationary satellites, such as GOES-16 and GOES-17.

Estimativa da concentração média diária de material particulado fino na região do Complexo Industrial e Portuário do Pecém, Ceará, Brasil

A exposição ao material particulado fino (MP2,5) está associada a inúmeros desfechos à saúde. Desta forma, monitoramento da concentração ambiental do MP2,5 é importante, especialmente em áreas amplamente industrializadas, pois abrigam potenciais emissores do MP2,5 e de substâncias com potencial de aumentar a toxicidade de partículas já suspensas. O objetivo desta pesquisa é estimar a concentração diária do MP2,5 em três áreas de influência do Complexo Industrial e Portuário do Pecém (CIPP), Ceará, Brasil. Foi aplicado um modelo de regressão não linear para a estimativa do MP2,5, por meio de dados de profundidade óptica monitorados por satélite. As estimativas foram realizadas em três áreas de influência (Ai) do CIPP (São Gonçalo do Amarante - Ai I, Paracuru e Paraipaba - Ai II e Caucaia - Ai III, no período de 2006 a 2017. As médias anuais das concentrações estimadas foram inferiores ao estabelecido pela legislação nacional em todas as Ai (8µg m-3). Em todas as Ai, os meses referentes ao período de seca (setembro a fevereiro) apresentaram as maiores concentrações e uma predominância de ventos leste para oeste. Os meses que compreendem o período de chuva (março a agosto) apresentaram as menores concentrações e ventos menos definidos. As condições meteorológicas podem exercer um papel importante nos processos de remoção, dispersão ou manutenção das concentrações do material particulado na região. Mesmo com baixas concentrações estimadas, é importante avaliar a constituição das partículas finas dessa região, bem como sua possível associação a efeitos adversos à saúde da população local.

Evaluation of machine learning techniques with multiple remote sensing datasets in estimating monthly concentrations of ground-level PM2.5

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has been recognized as a key air pollutant that can influence population health risk, especially during extreme cases such as wildfires. Previous studies have applied geospatial techniques such as land use regression to map the ground-level PM_2.5, while some recent studies have found that Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) derived from satellite images and machine learning techniques may be two elements that can improve spatiotemporal prediction. However, there has been a lack of studies evaluating use of different machine learning techniques with AOD datasets for mapping PM_2.5, especially in areas with high spatiotemporal variability of PM_2.5. In this study, we compared the performance of eight predictive algorithms with the use of multiple remote sensing datasets, including satellite-derived AOD data, for the prediction of ground-level PM2.5 concentration. Based on the results, Cubist, random forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting were the algorithms with better performance, while Cubist was the best (CV-RMSE = 2.64 μg/m3, CV-R² = 0.48). Variable importance analysis indicated that the predictors with the highest contributions in modelling were monthly AOD and elevation. In conclusion, appropriate selection of machine learning algorithms can improve ground-level PM2.5 estimation, especially for areas with nonlinear relationships between PM2.5 and predictors caused by complex terrain. Satellite-derived data such as AOD and land surface temperature (LST) can also be substitutes for traditional datasets retrieved from weather stations, especially for areas with sparse and uneven distribution of stations.