Modelling ecological and human exposure to POPs in Venice lagoon. Part I - Application of MERLIN-Expo tool for integrated exposure assessment

Emissions of pharmaceuticals and plant protection products to the lagoon of Venice: development of a new emission inventory

Estimating the emissions of chemical pollutants to water is a fundamental step for the development and application of effective and sustainable management strategies of water resources, but methods applied so far to build chemicals inventories at the European or national scale show several limitations when applied at the local scale. The issue is particularly relevant when considering contaminants of emerging concern (CECs), whose environmental releases and occurrence are still poorly studied and understood. In this work, an approach to estimate water emissions of nine active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and ten most applied plant protection products (PPPs) is presented, considering proxy indicators (e.g., sales data and census information). The application area is the lagoon of Venice (Italy), a complex transitional environment highly influenced by anthropic pressures (e.g., agricultural and industrial activities, animal breeding, and wastewater discharge). The presented approach can be tailored to the information available for any local scale case study. Data on annual regional sales of PPPs and APIs were integrated with georeferenced demographic and economic statistics (such as census and land-use information) to estimate chemicals emissions to surface water and groundwater. A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified the main factors affecting emissions estimates, and those contributing more significantly to results uncertainty. Results showed the highest estimated emissions of APIs for antibiotics (i.e., amoxicillin, clarithromycin, azithromycin, and ciprofloxacin) used for humans and animals, while most of hormones' emission (i.e., 17- α-ethinylestradiol and 17-β-estradiol) derived from animal breeding. Regarding PPPs, glyphosate and imidacloprid emissions were one to two orders of magnitude higher compared to the other chemicals. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis showed that the variability of each parameter used to estimate emissions depends greatly both on the target chemical and the specific emission source considered. Excretion rates and removal during wastewater treatment were major key parameters for all the target pharmaceutical compounds, while for PPPs the key parameter was their loss into the natural waters after application.

Modeling the migration of chemicals from food contact materials to food: The MERLIN-expo/VERMEER toolbox

Evaluating the migration of chemicals from food contact materials (FCM) into food is a key step in the safety assessment of such materials. In this paper, a simple mechanistic model describing the migration of chemicals from FCM to food was combined with quantitative property-property relationships (QPPRs) for the prediction of diffusion coefficients and FCM-Food partition coefficients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the performance of these operational models in the prediction of a chemical's concentration in food in contact with a plastic monolayer FCM. A comparison to experimental migration values reported in literature was conducted. Deterministic simulations showed a good match between predicted and experimental values. The tested models can be used to provide insights in the amount and the type of toxicological data that are needed for the safety evaluation of the FCM substance. Uncertainty in QPPRs used for describing the processes of both diffusion in FCM and partition at the FCM-Food interface was included in the analysis. Combining uncertainty in QPPR predictions, it was shown that the third quartile (75th percentile) derived from probabilistic calculations can be used as a conservative value in the prediction of chemical concentration in food, with reasonable safety factors.

Human Health Risk Assessment of a pilot-plant for catalytic pyrolysis of mixed waste plastics for fuel production

Dioxins, PCBs and VOCs are the main hazardous chemicals emitted by gaseous streams from catalytic pyrolysis of waste plastics. In this work we propose a methodology to assess toxic and cancer risk under uncertainty, due to inhalation and ingestion of these chemicals by considering complex scenarios, as repeated start-ups and short continuous operation that may occur in a pilot-plant. Different simulation tools are combined to evaluate the expected concentration of pollutants in the environmental compartments and food. Hazard Index and Cancer Risk remain under the threshold for both dioxins (HI < 0.012, CR < 5.03 10^-7) and PCBdl (HI < 1.3 10^-7, CR < 2.49 10^-12) in all the simulated scenarios, also for the worst case of children ingesting vegetables and meat and uncertainty factors up to 1000. Different results are obtained for VOCs since repeated leakages during the pilot-plant operation are possible. All the risk indexes for benzene are under the threshold (HI < 0.175, CR < 1.41 10^-7); acute toxic risk due to inhalation and cancer risk due to ingestion of grain/vegetables are over the threshold if all the uncertainties are considered. Lesson learned: HHRA is important also during scale-up; pilot-plants for pyrolysis of waste plastics must always be equipped with all the abatement systems designed for the final plant.

Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Nutrients in the Drowned Tidal Inlet under the Influence of Tides: A Case Study of Zhanjiang Bay, China

The tidal dynamics and the characteristics of pollutant migration in the drowned-valley tidal inlet, a typical unit of coastal tidal inlets, are strongly influenced by geomorphological features. Along with the development of society and the economy, the hydrodynamic and water quality environment of the tidal inlet is also becoming more disturbed by human activities, such as reclamation of the sea and the construction of large bridges. In this study, a typical drowned-valley tidal inlet, Zhanjiang Bay (ZJB), was selected for the establishment of a model via coupling of a tidal hydrodynamic model and water quality numerical model. This model can be used to simulate the migration and diffusion of pollutants in ZJB. The spatial and temporal variation processes of water quality factors of the bay under the influence of special geomorphic units was simulated at the tidal-inlet entrance, the flood/ebb tidal delta, and the tidal basin. The results show that ZJB has strong tidal currents that are significantly affected by the terrain. Under the influence of the terrain and tidal currents, the phosphorus and nitrogen concentration at the flood-tide and ebb-tide moments showed obvious temporal and spatial differences in the ebb-tide delta, tidal-inlet entrance, flood-tide delta, and tidal basin. In this study, we analyzed the response mechanism of the water quality environment to the drowned-valley tidal inlet, and this can provide theoretical guidance and a basis for decision-making toward protecting the ecology and water security of ZJB.

Bioaccumulation of trace metals in aquatic food web. A case study, Liaodong Bay, NE China

The recently developed modelling tool MERLIN-Expo was applied to support the exposure assessment of an aquatic food web to trace metals in a coastal environment. The exposure scenario, built on the data from Daliao River estuary in the Liaodong Bay (Bohai Sea, China), affected by long-term and large-scale industrial activities as well as rapid urbanization in Liao River watershed, represents an interesting case-study for ecological exposure modelling due to the availability of local data on metal concentrations in water and sediment. The bioaccumulation of selected trace metals in aquatic organisms was modelled and compared with field data from local aquatic organisms. Both model results and experimental data demonstrated that As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn, out of examined metals, were accumulated most abundantly by invertebrates and less by higher trophic level species. The body parts of the sampled animals with the highest measured concentration of metals were predominantly muscles, intestine and liver and fish skin in the case of Cr. The Morris and extended Fourier Analysis (EFAST) were used to account for variability in selected parameters of the bioaccumulation model. Food assimilation efficiency and slopes and intercepts of two sub-models for calculating metal specific BCFs (BCF_metal-exposure concentration) and fish weight (Weight_fish-Length_fish) were identified as the most influential parameters on ecological exposure to selected metals.

Ecological and human exposure assessment to PBDEs in Adige River

The interest for environmental issues and the concern resulting from the potential exposure to contaminants were the starting point to develop methodologies in order to evaluate the consequences that those might have over both the environment and human health. Considering the feature of POPs, including PBDEs, such as bioaccumulation, biomagnification, long-range transport and adverse effects even long time after exposure, risk assessment of POPs requires specific approaches and tools. In this particular context, the MERLIN-Expo tool was used to assess the aquatic environmental exposure of Adige River to PBDEs and the accumulation of PBDEs in humans through the consumption of possible contaminated local aquatic food. The aquatic food web models provided as output of the deterministic simulation the time trend of concentrations for twenty years of BDE-47 and total PBDEs, expressed using the physico-chemical properties of BDE-47, in aquatic organisms of the food web of Adige River. For BDE-47, the highest accumulated concentrations were detected for two benthic species: Thymallus thymallus and Squalius cephalus whereas the lowest concentrations were obtained for the pelagic specie Salmo trutta marmoratus. The trend obtained for the total PBDEs, calculated using the physico-chemical properties of BDE-47, follows the one of BDE-47. For human exposure, different BDE-47 and total PBDEs concentration trends between children, adolescent, adults and elderly were observed, probably correlated with the human intake of fish products in the daily diet and the ability to metabolize these contaminants. In detail, for the adolescents, adults and elderly a continuous accumulation of the target contaminants during the simulation's years was observed, whereas for children a plateau at the end of the simulation period was perceived.

Applying acoustic telemetry to understand contaminant exposure and bioaccumulation patterns in mobile fishes

Contamination in urbanised estuaries presents a risk to human health, and to the viability of populations of exploited species. Assessing animal movements in relation to contaminated areas may help to explain patterns in bioaccumulation, and assist in the effective management of health risks associated with consumption of exploited species. Using polychlorinated dibenzodioxin and polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDD/Fs) contamination in Sydney Harbour estuary as a case study, we present a study that links movement patterns resolved using acoustic telemetry to the accumulation of contaminants in mobile fish on a multi-species basis. Fifty-four individuals across six exploited species (Sea Mullet Mugil cephalus; Luderick Girella tricuspidata; Yellowfin Bream Acanthopagrus australis; Silver Trevally Pseudocaranx georgianus; Mulloway Argyrosomus japonicus; Yellowtail Kingfish Seriola lalandi) were tagged with acoustic transmitters, and their movements tracked for up to 3years. There was substantial inter-specific variation in fish distribution along the estuary. The proportion of distribution that overlapped with contaminated areas explained 84-98% of the inter-specific variation in lipid-standardised biota PCDD/F concentration. There was some seasonal variation in distribution along the estuary, but movement patterns indicated that Sea Mullet, Yellowfin Bream, Silver Trevally, and Mulloway were likely to be exposed to contaminated areas during the period of gonadal maturation. Acoustic telemetry allows examination of spatial and temporal patterns in exposure to contamination. When used alongside biota sampling and testing, this offers a powerful approach to assess exposure, bioaccumulation, and potential risks faced by different species, as well as human health risks associated with their consumption.

Modelling ecological and human exposure to POPs in Venice lagoon - Part II: Quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in coupled exposure models

The study is focused on applying uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to support the application and evaluation of large exposure models where a significant number of parameters and complex exposure scenarios might be involved. The recently developed MERLIN-Expo exposure modelling tool was applied to probabilistically assess the ecological and human exposure to PCB 126 and 2,3,7,8-TCDD in the Venice lagoon (Italy). The 'Phytoplankton', 'Aquatic Invertebrate', 'Fish', 'Human intake' and PBPK models available in MERLIN-Expo library were integrated to create a specific food web to dynamically simulate bioaccumulation in various aquatic species and in the human body over individual lifetimes from 1932 until 1998. MERLIN-Expo is a high tier exposure modelling tool allowing propagation of uncertainty on the model predictions through Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty in model output can be further apportioned between parameters by applying built-in sensitivity analysis tools. In this study, uncertainty has been extensively addressed in the distribution functions to describe the data input and the effect on model results by applying sensitivity analysis techniques (screening Morris method, regression analysis, and variance-based method EFAST). In the exposure scenario developed for the Lagoon of Venice, the concentrations of 2,3,7,8-TCDD and PCB 126 in human blood turned out to be mainly influenced by a combination of parameters (half-lives of the chemicals, body weight variability, lipid fraction, food assimilation efficiency), physiological processes (uptake/elimination rates), environmental exposure concentrations (sediment, water, food) and eating behaviours (amount of food eaten). In conclusion, this case study demonstrated feasibility of MERLIN-Expo to be successfully employed in integrated, high tier exposure assessment.

Modelling the exposure to chemicals for risk assessment: a comprehensive library of multimedia and PBPK models for integration, prediction, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis - the MERLIN-Expo tool

MERLIN-Expo is a library of models that was developed in the frame of the FP7 EU project 4FUN in order to provide an integrated assessment tool for state-of-the-art exposure assessment for environment, biota and humans, allowing the detection of scientific uncertainties at each step of the exposure process. This paper describes the main features of the MERLIN-Expo tool. The main challenges in exposure modelling that MERLIN-Expo has tackled are: (i) the integration of multimedia (MM) models simulating the fate of chemicals in environmental media, and of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models simulating the fate of chemicals in human body. MERLIN-Expo thus allows the determination of internal effective chemical concentrations; (ii) the incorporation of a set of functionalities for uncertainty/sensitivity analysis, from screening to variance-based approaches. The availability of such tools for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis aimed to facilitate the incorporation of such issues in future decision making; (iii) the integration of human and wildlife biota targets with common fate modelling in the environment. MERLIN-Expo is composed of a library of fate models dedicated to non biological receptor media (surface waters, soils, outdoor air), biological media of concern for humans (several cultivated crops, mammals, milk, fish), as well as wildlife biota (primary producers in rivers, invertebrates, fish) and humans. These models can be linked together to create flexible scenarios relevant for both human and wildlife biota exposure. Standardized documentation for each model and training material were prepared to support an accurate use of the tool by end-users. One of the objectives of the 4FUN project was also to increase the confidence in the applicability of the MERLIN-Expo tool through targeted realistic case studies. In particular, we aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of building complex realistic exposure scenarios and the accuracy of the modelling predictions through a comparison with actual measurements.

Potential for MERLIN-Expo, an advanced tool for higher tier exposure assessment, within the EU chemical legislative frameworks

MERLIN-Expo merges and integrates advanced exposure assessment methodologies, allowing the building of complex scenarios involving several pollution sources and targets. The assessment of exposure and risks to human health from chemicals is of major concern for policy and ultimately benefits all citizens. The development and operational fusion of the advanced exposure assessment methodologies envisaged in the MERLIN-Expo tool will have a significant impact in the long term on several policies dealing with chemical safety management. There are more than 30 agencies in Europe related to exposure and risk evaluation of chemicals, which have an important role in implementing EU policies, having especially tasks of technical, scientific, operational and/or regulatory nature. The main purpose of the present paper is to introduce MERLIN-Expo and to highlight its potential for being effectively integrated within the group of tools available to assess the risk and exposure of chemicals for EU policy. The main results show that the tool is highly suitable for use in site-specific or local impact assessment, with minor modifications it can also be used for Plant Protection Products (PPPs), biocides and REACH, while major additions would be required for a comprehensive application in the field of consumer and worker exposure assessment.