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Liu W, Li M, Huang Y, Makowski D, Su Y, Bai Y, Schauberger B, Du T, Abbaspour KC, Yang K, Yang H, Ciais P. Mitigating nitrogen losses with almost no crop yield penalty during extremely wet years. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadi9325. [PMID: 38416832 PMCID: PMC10901370 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adi9325] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2023] [Accepted: 01/25/2024] [Indexed: 03/01/2024]
Abstract
Climate change-induced precipitation anomalies during extremely wet years (EWYs) result in substantial nitrogen losses to aquatic ecosystems (Nw). Still, the extent and drivers of these losses, and effective mitigation strategies have remained unclear. By integrating global datasets with well-established crop modeling and machine learning techniques, we reveal notable increases in Nw, ranging from 22 to 56%, during historical EWYs. These pulses are projected to amplify under the SSP126 (SSP370) scenario to 29 to 80% (61 to 120%) due to the projected increases in EWYs and higher nitrogen input. We identify the relative precipitation difference between two consecutive years (diffPr) as the primary driver of extreme Nw. This finding forms the basis of the CLimate Extreme Adaptive Nitrogen Strategy (CLEANS), which scales down nitrogen input adaptively to diffPr, leading to a substantial reduction in extreme Nw with nearly zero yield penalty. Our results have important implications for global environmental sustainability and while safeguarding food security.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenfeng Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources, Beijing 100083, China
- National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station on Efficient Water Use of Oasis Agriculture in Wuwei of Gansu Province, Wuwei 733000, China
- Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Mengxue Li
- State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources, Beijing 100083, China
- National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station on Efficient Water Use of Oasis Agriculture in Wuwei of Gansu Province, Wuwei 733000, China
- Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Yuanyuan Huang
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - David Makowski
- UMR Applied Mathematics and Computer Science (MIA518), INRAE AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Palaiseau, France
| | - Yang Su
- UMR ECOSYS, INRAE UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Département d'Informatique, École Normale Supérieure - PSL, 75005 Paris, France
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Yawei Bai
- State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources, Beijing 100083, China
- National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station on Efficient Water Use of Oasis Agriculture in Wuwei of Gansu Province, Wuwei 733000, China
- Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Bernhard Schauberger
- University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan-Triesdorf, Department of Sustainable Agriculture and Energy Systems, Am Staudengarten 1, 85354 Freising, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Taisheng Du
- State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources, Beijing 100083, China
- National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station on Efficient Water Use of Oasis Agriculture in Wuwei of Gansu Province, Wuwei 733000, China
- Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Karim C. Abbaspour
- 2w2e Environmental Consulting GmbH, Mettlenweg 3, Dübendorf, 8600 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Kun Yang
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing100084, China
- National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resource Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Hong Yang
- 2w2e Environmental Consulting GmbH, Mettlenweg 3, Dübendorf, 8600 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Rasche L, Becker JN, Chimwamurombe P, Eschenbach A, Gröngröft A, Jeong J, Luther-Mosebach J, Reinhold-Hurek B, Sarkar A, Schneider UA. Exploring the benefits of inoculated cowpeas under different climatic conditions in Namibia. Sci Rep 2023; 13:11761. [PMID: 37474671 PMCID: PMC10359254 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38949-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2022] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 07/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Cowpeas (Vigna uniculata L. Walp) are grown by many smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa for food and their ability to fix nitrogen even under stress. Their performance depends on the indigenous rhizobial strains that live in symbiotic association with the roots; it can be enhanced if the seeds are inoculated with more effective ones. Data of the effectiveness of the technique under a variety of climatic conditions is rare. Here, we thus use a model to upscale two field experiments conducted in Namibia to include different climate change scenarios. The simulations show that non-inoculated cowpeas have mean yields of 0.5 t/ha and inoculated cowpeas 1 t/ha. If climatic conditions are favorable (cool and wet), estimated yield differences increase to over 1 t/ha. In dry years (< 200 mm), the average yield difference is only 0.1 t/ha. In the far future (2080-2100), instances of dry and hot years will increase. Using inoculated cowpea seeds instead of non-inoculated ones thus does not benefit farmers as much then as in the near future (2030-2050). In conclusion, using cowpea seeds inoculated with an efficient rhizobial strain can significantly increase yields under varying climatic conditions, but yield advantages decrease markedly in very dry and hot years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Livia Rasche
- Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risks, Universität Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, 20144, Hamburg, Germany.
| | - Joscha N Becker
- Institute of Soil Science, Universität Hamburg, Allende-Platz 2, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Percy Chimwamurombe
- Department of Natural and Applied Sciences, Namibia University of Science and Technology, Brahms St, Windhoek, Namibia
| | - Annette Eschenbach
- Institute of Soil Science, Universität Hamburg, Allende-Platz 2, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Alexander Gröngröft
- Institute of Soil Science, Universität Hamburg, Allende-Platz 2, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
- Department of Natural and Applied Sciences, Namibia University of Science and Technology, Brahms St, Windhoek, Namibia
| | - Jihye Jeong
- Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risks, Universität Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, 20144, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Jona Luther-Mosebach
- Institute of Soil Science, Universität Hamburg, Allende-Platz 2, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Barbara Reinhold-Hurek
- Research Group Molecular Plant-Microbe Interactions, University of Bremen, Loebener Str. 5, 28359, Bremen, Germany
| | - Abhijit Sarkar
- Research Group Molecular Plant-Microbe Interactions, University of Bremen, Loebener Str. 5, 28359, Bremen, Germany
| | - Uwe A Schneider
- Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risks, Universität Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, 20144, Hamburg, Germany
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Wang L, Li Y, Wu J, An Z, Suo L, Ding J, Li S, Wei D, Jin L. Effects of the Rainfall Intensity and Slope Gradient on Soil Erosion and Nitrogen Loss on the Sloping Fields of Miyun Reservoir. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 12:423. [PMID: 36771513 PMCID: PMC9921839 DOI: 10.3390/plants12030423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2022] [Revised: 01/12/2023] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Environmental loss is primarily caused by soil, water, and nutrient loss, and runoff is associated with nutrient transport and sediment loss. Most existing studies have focused on one influencing factor, namely slope gradient or rainfall intensity, for slope erosion and nutrient loss, but the joint effects of the two factors have rarely been researched. In this context, the impact of slope gradients (0°, 5°, 10°, and 15°) and rainfall intensities (30, 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80 mm/h) on soil erosion and nutrient loss on the sloping fields of Miyun Reservoir were explored using the indoor artificial rainfall simulation testing system. Based on the results of the study, the variation of runoff coefficient with slope gradient was not noticeable for rainfall intensities <40 mm/h; however, for rainfall intensities >40 mm/h, the increased range of runoff coefficient doubled, and the increase was the fastest under 0° among the four slope gradients. The slope surface runoff depth and runoff rate showed positive correlations with the rainfall intensity (r = 0.875, p < 0.01) and a negative correlation with the slope gradient. In addition, the cumulative sediment yield was positively related to the slope gradient and rainfall intensity (r > 0.464, p < 0.05). Moreover, the slope surface runoff-associated and sediment-associated loss rates of total nitrogen (TN) rose as the rainfall intensity or slope gradient increased, and significant linear positive correlations were found between the runoff-associated TN loss rate (NLr) and the runoff intensity and between the sediment-associated NLr and the erosion intensity. In addition, there were positive linear correlations between slope runoff-associated or sediment-associated TN loss volumes and rainfall intensity, surface runoff, and sediment loss volumes, which were highly remarkable. The slope gradient had a significant positive correlation with the slope surface runoff-associated TN loss at 0.05 (r = 0.452) and a significant positive correlation with the sediment-associated TN loss at the level of 0.01 (r = 0.591). The rainfall intensity exhibited extremely positive correlations with the slope surface runoff-associated and sediment-associated TN loss at 0.01 (r = 0.717 and 0.629) Slope gradients have less effect on nitrogen loss on sloped fields than rainfall intensity, mainly because rainfall intensity affects runoff depth. Based on the findings of this study, Miyun Reservoir may be able to improve nitrogen loss prevention and control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lei Wang
- Institute of Plant Nutrition, Resources and Environment, Beijing Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding 071000, China
| | - Yan Li
- Institute of Plant Nutrition, Resources and Environment, Beijing Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
| | - Jiajun Wu
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding 071000, China
| | - Zhizhuang An
- Institute of Plant Nutrition, Resources and Environment, Beijing Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
| | - Linna Suo
- Institute of Plant Nutrition, Resources and Environment, Beijing Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
| | - Jianli Ding
- Institute of Plant Nutrition, Resources and Environment, Beijing Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
| | - Shuo Li
- Institute of Plant Nutrition, Resources and Environment, Beijing Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
| | - Dan Wei
- Institute of Plant Nutrition, Resources and Environment, Beijing Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
| | - Liang Jin
- Institute of Plant Nutrition, Resources and Environment, Beijing Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
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Franke JA, Müller C, Minoli S, Elliott J, Folberth C, Gardner C, Hank T, Izaurralde RC, Jägermeyr J, Jones CD, Liu W, Olin S, Pugh TAM, Ruane AC, Stephens H, Zabel F, Moyer EJ. Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:167-181. [PMID: 34478595 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2021] [Accepted: 06/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets." A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end of century warming using seven process-based models simulating five major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- James A Franke
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
- Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Sara Minoli
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Joshua Elliott
- Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Christian Folberth
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Charles Gardner
- Program on Global Environment, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Tobias Hank
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat Munchen (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | | | - Jonas Jägermeyr
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Curtis D Jones
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Wenfeng Liu
- College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Haynes Stephens
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
- Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Florian Zabel
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat Munchen (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | - Elisabeth J Moyer
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
- Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
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Tesfaye K, Takele R, Sapkota TB, Khatri-Chhetri A, Solomon D, Stirling C, Albanito F. Model comparison and quantification of nitrous oxide emission and mitigation potential from maize and wheat fields at a global scale. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 782:146696. [PMID: 33838384 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2021] [Revised: 03/15/2021] [Accepted: 03/19/2021] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
Maize and wheat are major cereals that contribute two-thirds of the food energy intake globally. The two crops consume about 35% of the nitrogen (N) fertilizer used in agriculture and thereby contribute to fertilizer-induced nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Thus, estimation of spatially disaggregated N2O emissions from maize and wheat fields on a global scale could be useful for identifying emission and mitigation hotspots. It could also be needed for prioritizing mitigation options consistent with location-specific production and environmental goals. N2O emission from four models (CCAFS-MOT, IPCC Tier-I, IPCC Tier-II and Tropical N2O) using a standard gridded dataset from global maize and wheat fields were compared and their performance evaluated using measured N2O emission data points (777 globally distributed datapoints). The models were used to quantify spatially disaggregated N2O emission and mitigation potential from maize and wheat fields globally and the values were compared. Although the models differed in their performance of capturing the level of measured N2O emissions, they produced similar spatial patterns of annual N2O emissions from maize and wheat fields. Irrespective of the models, predicted N2O emissions per hectare were higher in some countries in East and South Asia, North America, and Western Europe, driven mainly by higher N application rates. The study indicated a substantial N2O abatement potential if application of excess N in the maize and wheat systems is reduced without compromising the yield of the crops through technological and crop management innovations. N2O mitigation potential is higher in those countries and regions where N application rates and current N2O emissions are already high. The estimated mitigation potentials are useful for hotspot countries to target fertilizer and crop management as one of the mitigation options in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
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Affiliation(s)
- Kindie Tesfaye
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
| | - Robel Takele
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Tek B Sapkota
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), El Batan, Mexico.
| | - Arun Khatri-Chhetri
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), CIAT-Bioversity Alliance, Cali, Colombia
| | - Dawit Solomon
- Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), East Africa Program, ILRI, Ethiopia
| | - Clare Stirling
- Cocoa Life Crop Science Technology Platform Mondelez UK R&D Limited, Bournville, B30 2LU, UK
| | - Fabrizio Albanito
- Institute of Biological & Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cruickshank Building, St. Machar Drive, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK
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Zhang Y, Wu H, Yao M, Zhou J, Wu K, Hu M, Shen H, Chen D. Estimation of nitrogen runoff loss from croplands in the Yangtze River Basin: A meta-analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2021; 272:116001. [PMID: 33187836 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2020.116001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2020] [Revised: 11/03/2020] [Accepted: 11/03/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Nitrogen (N) runoff loss from croplands due to excessive anthropogenic N additions is a principal cause of non-point source water pollution worldwide. Quantitative knowledge of regional-scale N runoff loss from croplands is essential for developing sustainable agricultural N management and efficient water N pollution control strategies. This meta-analysis quantifies N runoff loss rates and identifies the primary factors regulating N runoff loss from uplands (n = 570) and paddy (n = 434) fields in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). Results indicated that total N (TN) runoff loss rates from uplands and paddy fields consistently increased from upstream to downstream regions. Runoff depth, soil N content and fertilizer addition rate (chemical fertilizer + manure) were the major factors regulating variability of TN runoff loss from uplands, while runoff depth and fertilizer addition rate were the main controls for paddy fields. Multiple regression models incorporating these influencing factors effectively predicted TN runoff loss rates from uplands (calibration: R2 = 0.60, n = 242; validation: R2 = 0.55, n = 104) and paddy fields (calibration: R2 = 0.70, n = 189; validation: R2 = 0.85, n = 82). Models estimated total cropland TN runoff loss load in YRB of 0.54 (95% Cl: 0.23-1.33) Tg, with 0.30 (95% Cl: 0.15-0.56) Tg from uplands and 0.24 (95% Cl: 0.08-0.77) Tg from paddy fields in 2017. Guangxi, Jiangxi, Fujian, Hunan and Henan provinces within the YRB were identified as cropland TN runoff loss hotspots. Models predicted that TN runoff loss loads from croplands in YRB would decrease by 0.8-13.7% for five scenarios, with higher TN load reductions occurring from scenarios with decreased runoff amounts. Reducing upland TN runoff loss should focus primarily on soil N utilization and runoff management, while reducing N fertilizer addition and runoff provided the most sensitive strategies for paddy fields. Integrated management of water, soil and fertilizer is required to effectively reduce cropland N runoff loss.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yufu Zhang
- College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Hao Wu
- College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China; Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Mengya Yao
- College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Environment Remediation and Ecological Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Jia Zhou
- College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Environment Remediation and Ecological Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Kaibin Wu
- College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Environment Remediation and Ecological Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Minpeng Hu
- College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Environment Remediation and Ecological Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Hong Shen
- College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China; Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Dingjiang Chen
- College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Environment Remediation and Ecological Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
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7
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An Integrated Modeling System for the Evaluation of Water Resources in Coastal Agricultural Watersheds: Application in Almyros Basin, Thessaly, Greece. WATER 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/w13030268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
This study presents an integrated modeling system for the evaluation of the quantity and quality of water resources of coastal agricultural watersheds. The modeling system consists of coupled and interrelated models, including (i) a surface hydrology model (UTHBAL), (ii) a groundwater hydrology model (MODFLOW), (iii) a crop growth/nitrate leaching model (REPIC, an R-ArcGIS-based EPIC model), (iv) a groundwater contaminant transport model (MT3DMS), and (v) a groundwater seawater intrusion model (SEAWAT). The efficacy of the modeling system to simulate the quantity and quality of water resources has been applied to the Almyros basin in Thessaly, Greece. It is a coastal agricultural basin with irrigated and intensified agriculture facing serious groundwater problems, such as groundwater depletion, nitrate pollution, and seawater intrusion. Irrigation demands were estimated for the main crops cultivated in the area, based on precipitation and temperature from regional weather stations. The models have been calibrated and validated against time-series of observed crop yields, groundwater table observations, and observed concentrations of nitrates and chlorides. The results indicate that the modeling system simulates the water resources quantity and quality with increased accuracy. The proposed modeling system could be used as a tool for the simulation of water resources management and climate change scenarios.
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8
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Liu W, Ciais P, Liu X, Yang H, Hoekstra AY, Tang Q, Wang X, Li X, Cheng L. Global Phosphorus Losses from Croplands under Future Precipitation Scenarios. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2020; 54:14761-14771. [PMID: 33138381 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c03978] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Phosphorus (P) losses from fertilized croplands to inland water bodies cause serious environmental problems. During wet years, high precipitation disproportionately contributes to P losses. We combine simulations of a gridded crop model and outputs from a number of hydrological and climate models to assess global impacts of changes in precipitation regimes on P losses during the 21st century. Under the baseline climate during 1991-2010, median P losses are 2.7 ± 0.5 kg P ha-1 year-1 over global croplands of four major crops, while during wet years, P losses are 3.6 ± 0.7 kg P ha-1 year-1. By the end of this century, P losses in wet years would reach 4.2 ± 1.0 (RCP2.6) and 4.7 ± 1.3 (RCP8.5) kg P ha-1 year-1 due to increases in high annual precipitation alone. The increases in P losses are the highest (up to 200%) in the arid regions of Middle East, Central Asia, and northern Africa. Consequently, in three quarters of the world's river basins, representing about 40% of total global runoff and home up to 7 billion people, P dilution capacity of freshwater could be exceeded due to P losses from croplands by the end of this century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenfeng Liu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Xingcai Liu
- Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 133, CH-8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Hong Yang
- Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 133, CH-8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Sciences, MGU, University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, CH-4003 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Arjen Y Hoekstra
- Twente Water Centre, University of Twente, 7522 NB Enschede, The Netherlands
- Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 259772 Singapore
| | - Qiuhong Tang
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Xuhui Wang
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- College of Urban & Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Xiaodong Li
- State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, No. 24 South Section 1, Yihuan Road, 610065 Chengdu, China
| | - Lei Cheng
- State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
- Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security, Wuhan 430072, China
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Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0221862. [PMID: 31525247 PMCID: PMC6746385 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0221862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2018] [Accepted: 08/18/2019] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.
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10
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Müller C, Elliott J, Kelly D, Arneth A, Balkovic J, Ciais P, Deryng D, Folberth C, Hoek S, Izaurralde RC, Jones CD, Khabarov N, Lawrence P, Liu W, Olin S, Pugh TAM, Reddy A, Rosenzweig C, Ruane AC, Sakurai G, Schmid E, Skalsky R, Wang X, de Wit A, Yang H. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset. Sci Data 2019; 6:50. [PMID: 31068583 PMCID: PMC6506552 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-019-0023-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2018] [Accepted: 02/25/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 dataset of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) provides an unprecedentedly large dataset of crop model simulations covering the global ice-free land surface. The dataset consists of annual data fields at a spatial resolution of 0.5 arc-degree longitude and latitude. Fourteen crop modeling groups provided output for up to 11 historical input datasets spanning 1901 to 2012, and for up to three different management harmonization levels. Each group submitted data for up to 15 different crops and for up to 14 output variables. All simulations were conducted for purely rainfed and near-perfectly irrigated conditions on all land areas irrespective of whether the crop or irrigation system is currently used there. With the publication of the GGCMI phase 1 dataset we aim to promote further analyses and understanding of crop model performance, potential relationships between productivity and environmental impacts, and insights on how to further improve global gridded crop model frameworks. We describe dataset characteristics and individual model setup narratives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Joshua Elliott
- University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA
| | - David Kelly
- University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, IMK-IFU, 82467, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Juraj Balkovic
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Soil Science, Comenius University in Bratislava, 842 15, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Delphine Deryng
- University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Christian Folberth
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Soil Science, Comenius University in Bratislava, 842 15, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
| | - Steven Hoek
- Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, Alterra Wageningen University and Research Centre, 6708PB, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Roberto C Izaurralde
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
- Texas AgriLife Research and Extension, Texas A&M University, Temple, TX, 76502, USA
| | - Curtis D Jones
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Nikolay Khabarov
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Peter Lawrence
- Earth System Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA
| | - Wenfeng Liu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, CH-8600, Duebendorf, Switzerland
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 223 62, Lund, Sweden
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom
| | - Ashwan Reddy
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Cynthia Rosenzweig
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10025, USA
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Alex C Ruane
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10025, USA
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Gen Sakurai
- Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Research Organization, Tsukuba, 305-8604, Japan
| | - Erwin Schmid
- Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180, Vienna, Austria
| | - Rastislav Skalsky
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
- Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, National Agricultural and Food Centre, 82109, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
| | - Xuhui Wang
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China
| | - Allard de Wit
- Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, Alterra Wageningen University and Research Centre, 6708PB, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Hong Yang
- Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, CH-8600, Duebendorf, Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Sciences, MGU, University of Basel, CH-4003, Basel, Switzerland
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11
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Liu W, Yang H, Folberth C, Müller C, Ciais P, Abbaspour KC, Schulin R. Achieving High Crop Yields with Low Nitrogen Emissions in Global Agricultural Input Intensification. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2018; 52:13782-13791. [PMID: 30412669 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b03610] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Increasing demand for food is driving a worldwide trend of agricultural input intensification. However, there is no comprehensive knowledge about the interrelations between potential yield gains and environmental trade-offs that would enable the identification of regions where input-driven intensification could achieve higher yields, yet with minimal environmental impacts. We explore ways of enhancing global yields, while avoiding significant nitrogen (N) emissions (Ne) by exploring a range of N and irrigation management scenarios. The simulated responses of yields and Ne to increased N inputs (Nin) and irrigation show high spatial variations due to differences in current agricultural inputs and agro-climatic conditions. Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of yield gains is negatively correlated with incremental Ne due to Nin additions. Avoiding further intensification in regions where high fractions of climatic yield potentials, ≥ 80%, are already achieved is key to maintain good NUE. Depending on the intensification scenarios, relative increases in Ne could be reduced by 0.3-29.6% of the baseline Ne with this intensification strategy as compared to indiscriminate further intensification, at the cost of a loss of yield increases by 0.2-16.7% of the baseline yields. In addition, irrigation water requirements and Nin would dramatically decrease by considering this intensification strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenfeng Liu
- Eawag , Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology , Ueberlandstrasse 133 , CH-8600 Duebendorf , Switzerland
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ , Université Paris-Saclay , F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette , France
| | - Hong Yang
- Eawag , Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology , Ueberlandstrasse 133 , CH-8600 Duebendorf , Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Sciences, MGU , University of Basel , Petersplatz 1 , CH-4003 Basel , Switzerland
| | - Christian Folberth
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Schlossplatz 1 , A-2361 Laxenburg , Austria
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , 14473 Potsdam , Germany
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ , Université Paris-Saclay , F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette , France
| | - Karim C Abbaspour
- Eawag , Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology , Ueberlandstrasse 133 , CH-8600 Duebendorf , Switzerland
| | - Rainer Schulin
- ETH Zürich , Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems , Universitätstr. 16, CH-8092 Zürich , Switzerland
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12
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Wang J, Fu Z, Chen G, Zou G, Song X, Liu F. Runoff nitrogen (N) losses and related metabolism enzyme activities in paddy field under different nitrogen fertilizer levels. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2018; 25:27583-27593. [PMID: 30054837 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-018-2823-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2018] [Accepted: 07/20/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Nitrogen (N), one of the most important nutrients for plants, also can be a pollutant in water environments. N metabolism is sensitive to N fertilization application and related to rice growth. Different levels of N fertilization treatment (N0, control without N fertilizer application; N100, chemical fertilizer of 100 kg N ha-1; N200, chemical fertilizer of 200 kg N ha-1; N300, chemical fertilizer of 300 kg N ha-1) were tested to investigate N loss due to surface runoff and to explore the possible involvement of rice N metabolism responses to different N levels. The results indicated that N loss through runoff and rice yield was simultaneously increased in response to increasing N fertilizer levels. About 30% of total nitrogen (TN) was lost in the form of ammonium (NH4+) in a rice growing season, while only 3% was lost in the form of nitrate (NO3-). Higher N application increased carbon (C) and N content and increased nitrate reductase (NR) and glutamine synthetase (GS) activities in rice leaves, while it decreased glutamate synthase (GOGAT) and glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) activities. These results suggest that N caused the accumulation of assimilation products in flag leaves of rice and stimulated N metabolic processes, while some protective substances were also stimulated to resist low N stress. This study provides a theoretical basis for improving N fertilizer management to reduce N loss and increase rice yield.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junli Wang
- Eco-environmental Protection Research Institute, Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Shanghai, 201403, People's Republic of China
- Shanghai Engineering Research Centre of Low-carbon Agriculture (SERCLA), Shanghai, 201415, People's Republic of China
| | - Zishi Fu
- Eco-environmental Protection Research Institute, Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Shanghai, 201403, People's Republic of China
- Shanghai Engineering Research Centre of Low-carbon Agriculture (SERCLA), Shanghai, 201415, People's Republic of China
| | - Guifa Chen
- Eco-environmental Protection Research Institute, Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Shanghai, 201403, People's Republic of China
- Shanghai Engineering Research Centre of Low-carbon Agriculture (SERCLA), Shanghai, 201415, People's Republic of China
| | - Guoyan Zou
- Eco-environmental Protection Research Institute, Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Shanghai, 201403, People's Republic of China
- Shanghai Engineering Research Centre of Low-carbon Agriculture (SERCLA), Shanghai, 201415, People's Republic of China
- Shanghai Co-Elite Agricultural Sci-Tech (Group) Co., Ltd, Shanghai, 201106, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiangfu Song
- Eco-environmental Protection Research Institute, Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Shanghai, 201403, People's Republic of China
- Shanghai Engineering Research Centre of Low-carbon Agriculture (SERCLA), Shanghai, 201415, People's Republic of China
| | - Fuxing Liu
- Eco-environmental Protection Research Institute, Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Shanghai, 201403, People's Republic of China.
- Shanghai Engineering Research Centre of Low-carbon Agriculture (SERCLA), Shanghai, 201415, People's Republic of China.
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13
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Liu W, Yang H, Liu Y, Kummu M, Hoekstra AY, Liu J, Schulin R. Water resources conservation and nitrogen pollution reduction under global food trade and agricultural intensification. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 633:1591-1601. [PMID: 29758909 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.306] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2018] [Revised: 03/23/2018] [Accepted: 03/24/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Global food trade entails virtual flows of agricultural resources and pollution across countries. Here we performed a global-scale assessment of impacts of international food trade on blue water use, total water use, and nitrogen (N) inputs and on N losses in maize, rice, and wheat production. We simulated baseline conditions for the year 2000 and explored the impacts of an agricultural intensification scenario, in which low-input countries increase N and irrigation inputs to a greater extent than high-input countries. We combined a crop model with the Global Trade Analysis Project model. Results show that food exports generally occurred from regions with lower water and N use intensities, defined here as water and N uses in relation to crop yields, to regions with higher resources use intensities. Globally, food trade thus conserved a large amount of water resources and N applications, and also substantially reduced N losses. The trade-related conservation in blue water use reached 85km3y-1, accounting for more than half of total blue water use for producing the three crops. Food exported from the USA contributed the largest proportion of global water and N conservation as well as N loss reduction, but also led to substantial export-associated N losses in the country itself. Under the intensification scenario, the converging water and N use intensities across countries result in a more balanced world; crop trade will generally decrease, and global water resources conservation and N pollution reduction associated with the trade will reduce accordingly. The study provides useful information to understand the implications of agricultural intensification for international crop trade, crop water use and N pollution patterns in the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenfeng Liu
- Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 133, CH-8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland.
| | - Hong Yang
- Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 133, CH-8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland; Department of Environmental Sciences, MGU, University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, CH-4003 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Yu Liu
- Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Matti Kummu
- Water & Development Research Group, Aalto University, Tietotie 1E, 02150 Espoo, Finland
| | - Arjen Y Hoekstra
- Twente Water Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands; Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Junguo Liu
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil and Groundwater Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
| | - Rainer Schulin
- ETH Zürich, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Universitätstr. 16, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland
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14
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Müller C, Elliott J, Pugh TAM, Ruane AC, Ciais P, Balkovic J, Deryng D, Folberth C, Izaurralde RC, Jones CD, Khabarov N, Lawrence P, Liu W, Reddy AD, Schmid E, Wang X. Global patterns of crop yield stability under additional nutrient and water inputs. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0198748. [PMID: 29949598 PMCID: PMC6021068 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0198748] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2018] [Accepted: 05/24/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Agricultural production must increase to feed a growing and wealthier population, as well as to satisfy increasing demands for biomaterials and biomass-based energy. At the same time, deforestation and land-use change need to be minimized in order to preserve biodiversity and maintain carbon stores in vegetation and soils. Consequently, agricultural land use needs to be intensified in order to increase food production per unit area of land. Here we use simulations of AgMIP's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 to assess implications of input-driven intensification (water, nutrients) on crop yield and yield stability, which is an important aspect in food security. We find region- and crop-specific responses for the simulated period 1980-2009 with broadly increasing yield variability under additional nitrogen inputs and stabilizing yields under additional water inputs (irrigation), reflecting current patterns of water and nutrient limitation. The different models of the GGCMI ensemble show similar response patterns, but model differences warrant further research on management assumptions, such as variety selection and soil management, and inputs as well as on model implementation of different soil and plant processes, such as on heat stress, and parameters. Higher variability in crop productivity under higher fertilizer input will require adequate buffer mechanisms in trade and distribution/storage networks to avoid food price volatility.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Joshua Elliott
- University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America
- Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Thomas A. M. Pugh
- School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Science and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
- IMK-IFU, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Alex C. Ruane
- Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, New York, United States of America
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Juraj Balkovic
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
| | - Delphine Deryng
- Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, New York, United States of America
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
| | - Christian Folberth
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - R. Cesar Izaurralde
- University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
- Texas A&M University, Texas AgriLife Research and Extension, Temple, Texas, United States of America
| | - Curtis D. Jones
- University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Nikolay Khabarov
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Peter Lawrence
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Earth System Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Wenfeng Liu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland
| | - Ashwan D. Reddy
- University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Erwin Schmid
- Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
| | - Xuhui Wang
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
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15
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Zhang J, Balkovič J, Azevedo LB, Skalský R, Bouwman AF, Xu G, Wang J, Xu M, Yu C. Analyzing and modelling the effect of long-term fertilizer management on crop yield and soil organic carbon in China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 627:361-372. [PMID: 29426159 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2017] [Revised: 01/08/2018] [Accepted: 01/10/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
This study analyzes the influence of various fertilizer management practices on crop yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) based on the long-term field observations and modelling. Data covering 11 years from 8 long-term field trials were included, representing a range of typical soil, climate, and agro-ecosystems in China. The process-based model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model) was used to simulate the response of crop yield and SOC to various fertilization regimes. The results showed that the yield and SOC under additional manure application treatment were the highest while the yield under control treatment was the lowest (30%-50% of NPK yield) at all sites. The SOC in northern sites appeared more dynamic than that in southern sites. The variance partitioning analysis (VPA) showed more variance of crop yield could be explained by the fertilization factor (42%), including synthetic nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) fertilizers, and fertilizer NPK combined with manure. The interactive influence of soil (total N, P, K, and available N, P, K) and climate factors (mean annual temperature and precipitation) determine the largest part of the SOC variance (32%). EPIC performs well in simulating both the dynamics of crop yield (NRMSE = 32% and 31% for yield calibration and validation) and SOC (NRMSE = 13% and 19% for SOC calibration and validation) under diverse fertilization practices in China. EPIC can assist in predicting the impacts of different fertilization regimes on crop growth and soil carbon dynamics, and contribute to the optimization of fertilizer management for different areas in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Zhang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Juraj Balkovič
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna A-2361, Austria; Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, 84215 Bratislava, Slovak Republic
| | - Ligia B Azevedo
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna A-2361, Austria
| | - Rastislav Skalský
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna A-2361, Austria; National Agricultural and Food Centre, Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, 82713 Bratislava, Slovak Republic
| | - Alexander F Bouwman
- Department of Earth Sciences-Geosciences, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80021, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O.Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Guang Xu
- School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton 3800, Australia
| | - Jinzhou Wang
- Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Minggang Xu
- Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
| | - Chaoqing Yu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
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16
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Hou X, Zhan X, Zhou F, Yan X, Gu B, Reis S, Wu Y, Liu H, Piao S, Tang Y. Detection and attribution of nitrogen runoff trend in China's croplands. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2018; 234:270-278. [PMID: 29182971 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2017.11.052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2017] [Revised: 11/13/2017] [Accepted: 11/13/2017] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Reliable detection and attribution of changes in nitrogen (N) runoff from croplands are essential for designing efficient, sustainable N management strategies for future. Despite the recognition that excess N runoff poses a risk of aquatic eutrophication, large-scale, spatially detailed N runoff trends and their drivers remain poorly understood in China. Based on data comprising 535 site-years from 100 sites across China's croplands, we developed a data-driven upscaling model and a new simplified attribution approach to detect and attribute N runoff trends during the period of 1990-2012. Our results show that N runoff has increased by 46% for rice paddy fields and 31% for upland areas since 1990. However, we acknowledge that the upscaling model is subject to large uncertainties (20% and 40% as coefficient of variation of N runoff, respectively). At national scale, increased fertilizer application was identified as the most likely driver of the N runoff trend, while decreased irrigation levels offset to some extent the impact of fertilization increases. In southern China, the increasing trend of upland N runoff can be attributed to the growth in N runoff rates. Our results suggested that increased SOM led to the N runoff rate growth for uplands, but led to a decline for rice paddy fields. In combination, these results imply that improving management approaches for both N fertilizer use and irrigation is urgently required for mitigating agricultural N runoff in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xikang Hou
- Sino-France Institute of Earth Systems Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, PR China
| | - Xiaoying Zhan
- Sino-France Institute of Earth Systems Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, PR China
| | - Feng Zhou
- Sino-France Institute of Earth Systems Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, PR China.
| | - Xiaoyuan Yan
- State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, PR China
| | - Baojing Gu
- Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, PR China
| | - Stefan Reis
- Natural Environment Research Council, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, United Kingdom; University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Truro TR1 3HD, United Kingdom
| | - Yali Wu
- Sino-France Institute of Earth Systems Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, PR China
| | - Hongbin Liu
- Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, PR China
| | - Shilong Piao
- Sino-France Institute of Earth Systems Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, PR China
| | - Yanhong Tang
- Sino-France Institute of Earth Systems Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, PR China
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Masud MB, McAllister T, Cordeiro MRC, Faramarzi M. Modeling future water footprint of barley production in Alberta, Canada: Implications for water use and yields to 2064. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 616-617:208-222. [PMID: 29112843 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2017] [Revised: 10/31/2017] [Accepted: 11/01/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Despite the perception of being one of the most agriculturally productive regions globally, crop production in Alberta, a western province of Canada, is strongly dependent on highly variable climate and water resources. We developed agro-hydrological models to assess the water footprint (WF) of barley by simulating future crop yield (Y) and consumptive water use (CWU) within the agricultural region of Alberta. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to develop rainfed and irrigated barley Y simulation models adapted to sixty-seven and eleven counties, respectively through extensive calibration, validation, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis. Eighteen downscaled climate projections from nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5 for the 2040-2064 period were incorporated into the calibrated SWAT model. Based on the ensemble of GCMs, rainfed barley yield is projected to increase while irrigated barley is projected to remain unchanged in Alberta. Results revealed a considerable decrease (maximum 60%) in WF to 2064 relative to the simulated baseline 1985-2009 WF. Less water will also be required to produce barley in northern Alberta (rainfed barley) than southern Alberta (irrigated barley) due to reduced water consumption. The modeled WF data adjusted for water stress conditions and found a remarkable change (increase/decrease) in the irrigated counties. Overall, the research framework and the locally adapted regional model results will facilitate the development of future water policies in support of better climate adaptation strategies by providing improved WF projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Badrul Masud
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Alberta, 1-26, Earth Sciences Building, Edmonton, T6G 2E3, Alberta, Canada.
| | - Tim McAllister
- Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Lethbridge Research and Development Centre, 5403-1 Avenue South, P.O. Box 3000, Lethbridge, T1J 4B1, Alberta, Canada
| | - Marcos R C Cordeiro
- Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Lethbridge Research and Development Centre, 5403-1 Avenue South, P.O. Box 3000, Lethbridge, T1J 4B1, Alberta, Canada
| | - Monireh Faramarzi
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Alberta, 1-26, Earth Sciences Building, Edmonton, T6G 2E3, Alberta, Canada
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Fan C, Li B, Xiong Z. Nitrification inhibitors mitigated reactive gaseous nitrogen intensity in intensive vegetable soils from China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 612:480-489. [PMID: 28865265 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2017] [Revised: 08/14/2017] [Accepted: 08/15/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Nitrification inhibitors, a promising tool for reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) losses and promoting nitrogen use efficiency by slowing nitrification, have gained extensive attention worldwide. However, there have been few attempts to explore the broad responses of multiple reactive gaseous nitrogen emissions of N2O, nitric oxide (NO) and ammonia (NH3) and vegetable yield to nitrification inhibitor applications across intensive vegetable soils in China. A greenhouse pot experiment with five consecutive vegetable crops was performed to assess the efficacies of two nitrification inhibitors, namely, nitrapyrin and dicyandiamide on reactive gaseous nitrogen emissions, vegetable yield and reactive gaseous nitrogen intensity in four typical vegetable soils representing the intensive vegetable cropping systems across mainland China: an Acrisol from Hunan Province, an Anthrosol from Shanxi Province, a Cambisol from Shandong Province and a Phaeozem from Heilongjiang Province. The results showed soil type had significant influences on reactive gaseous nitrogen intensity, with reactive gaseous nitrogen emissions and yield mainly driven by soil factors: pH, nitrate, C:N ratio, cation exchange capacity and microbial biomass carbon. The highest reactive gaseous nitrogen emissions and reactive gaseous nitrogen intensity were in Acrisol while the highest vegetable yield occurred in Phaeozem. Nitrification inhibitor applications decreased N2O and NO emissions by 1.8-61.0% and 0.8-79.5%, respectively, but promoted NH3 volatilization by 3.2-44.6% across all soils. Furthermore, significant positive correlations were observed between inhibited N2O+NO and stimulated NH3 emissions with nitrification inhibitor additions across all soils, indicating that reduced nitrification posed the threat of NH3 losses. Additionally, reactive gaseous nitrogen intensity was significantly reduced in the Anthrosol and Cambisol due to the reduced reactive gaseous nitrogen emissions and increased yield, respectively. Our findings highlight the benefits of nitrification inhibitors for integrating environment and agronomy in intensive vegetable ecosystems in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Changhua Fan
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Low Carbon Agriculture and GHGs Mitigation, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
| | - Bo Li
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Low Carbon Agriculture and GHGs Mitigation, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
| | - Zhengqin Xiong
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Low Carbon Agriculture and GHGs Mitigation, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China.
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