Tree ring-based chronology of hydro-geomorphic processes as a fundament for identification of hydro-meteorological triggers in the Hrubý Jeseník Mountains (Central Europe)

Historical activity of debris flows in the medium-high mountains: Regional reconstruction using dendrogeomorphic approach

Detailed knowledge of the occurrence of debris flows in the past is key to understanding their linkage to changing climatic variables and their occurrence in the future. For a comprehensive understanding of the origin of these processes, regional reconstruction is optimal rather than detailed analysis of isolated catchments. This study presents the results of a dendrogeomorphic reconstruction of debris flows across an entire medium-high mountain range in Central Europe covering more than 500 km². The tree-ring data allowed the reconstruction of 96 debris flow events at 21 sites. The average frequency of events was 6.8 per decade, which is comparable or higher compared to alpine valleys. A detailed analysis of potential precipitation triggers was also performed in the paper, whose magnitude significantly influenced not only the number of debris flows but also their magnitude. Debris flows occur in two forms in the study area, with channelized debris flows showing significantly higher magnitude but lower frequency than fan debris flows. The differences between the two types are probably due to the different source of material that is reactivated during precipitation events of different duration and magnitude.

Occasional but severe: Past debris flows and snow avalanches in the Helmos Mts. (Greece) reconstructed from tree-ring records

The eastern Mediterranean is a hotspot in terms of geomorphic hazards, but the activity of gravitational processes in mountainous areas is largely unexplored. We carried out dendrogeomorphic research in the Helmos Mountains (Northern Peloponnese, Greece) to determine the timing, spatial extent, and hydrometeorological triggers of debris flows and snow avalanches. Specifically, we sampled increment cores from 123 injured Greek firs (Abies cephalonica L.) growing on a debris flow cone and growing along a snow avalanche track. Tree rings were counted and cross-dated with the reference chronology using CooRecorder and CDendro software and the event years were determined on the basis of the location of scars and traumatic resin ducts. We compiled an 118-year chronology (1904-2021) with seven debris flow event years and only one severe debris flow occurring in the 1970/1971 dormant period (W_It = 148.0), followed by spatially limited records for 1986/1987 (W_It = 3.8) and 1993/1994 (W_It = 2.5). Similarly, seven snow avalanche event years were identified in the period 1854-2021, with one major event in 1997/1998 (W_It = 304.5) followed by the 1998/1999 event (W_It = 6.3). Extremely wet conditions in February-March 1971 followed by rain-on-snow precipitation were considered as the most likely trigger of the analysed debris flow event using data from nearby meteorological stations and the ERA5 reanalysis. The snow avalanche event was deciphered in the spring of 1998, when heavy snowfall over three days (62 cm) was followed by rapid snowmelt due to high average temperatures (6-11 °C). We conclude that the abundance of snow is a crucial factor in the geomorphic activity in the study region and that the temperature fluctuations and rain-to-snow transitions are the leading factors for the debris flows or snow avalanches to occur. Furthermore, the dendrogeomorphic approach used can be useful to clearly identify large-scale geomorphic events and excludes potential geomorphic noise caused by other ecological stresses.

Intra-annual dendrogeomorphic dating and climate linkages of flood events in headwaters of central Europe

Unlike large rivers, floods in headwaters have been poorly documented despite the fact that greater discharges are expected in such areas due to ongoing rainfall intensification. The purpose of this study is to carry out intra-annual dating of past floods combined with analysis of their climate linkages which may point on distribution and origin of floods. To this end, we applied dendrogeomorphic dating of impact scars on riparian vegetation to provide flood chronologies in twelve headwaters of eastern Czechia and determined their seasonal occurrences. Furthermore, we analyzed the precipitation indices and evaluated the flood events using reanalysis of pressure fields and the climate oscillation indices, particularly those representing the North Atlantic, Scandinavian, and East Atlantic/Western Russian patterns. Based on 434 dated trees, we identified 22-31 flood event years in each region over the last 70 years. The most frequent floods occurred from May to July. In addition, in ten event years it was possible to identify multiple flood events: for example May and July-August floods in 2010, 2014, and 2016. The monthly precipitation showed the strongest, but still weak, correlation with indices of Scandinavian climate oscillation during summer months (R_s = 0.23-0.42; p < 0.00), suggesting the influence of a blocking anticyclone over Scandinavia and wet air propagation to central Europe. This finding was also confirmed by the most frequent positions of low-pressure centers located east of the study sites except for the region with western orographic enhancement. In addition, timing shift of extreme precipitation to earlier period was identified at two out of three regions. We conclude that intra-annual dating of floods supported by analyses of climate extremes provides new data from sparsely gauged headwaters, thereby supplementing the information on possible changes in flood occurrences during ongoing climate change.

Hydrogeomorphic Impacts of Floods in a First-Order Catchment: Integrated Approach Based on Dendrogeomorphic Palaeostage Indicators, 2D Hydraulic Modelling and Sedimentological Parameters

Floods represent frequent hazards in both low- and first-order catchments; however, to date, the investigation of peak flow discharges in the latter catchments has been omitted due to the absence of gauging stations. The quantification of flood parameters in a first-order catchment (1.8 km2) was realised in the moderate relief of NE Czechia, where the last flash flood event in 2014 caused considerable damage to the infrastructure. We used an integrated approach that included the dendrogeomorphic reconstruction of past flood activity, hydraulic modelling of the 2014 flash flood parameters using a two-dimensional IBER model, and evaluation of the channel stability using sedimentological parameters. Based on 115 flood scars, we identified 13 flood events during the period of 1955 to 2018, with the strongest signals recorded in 2014, 2009 and 1977. The modelled peak flow discharge of the last 2014 flood was equal to 4.5 m3·s−1 (RMSE = 0.32 m) using 26 scars as palaeostage indicators. The excess critical unit stream power was observed at only 24.2% of the reaches, representing predominantly bedrock and fine sediments. Despite local damage during the last flood, our results suggest relatively stable geomorphic conditions and gradual development of stream channels under discharges similar to that in 2014.

Dry Spells and Extreme Precipitation are The Main Trigger of Landslides in Central Europe

Landslides are frequently triggered by extreme meteorological events which has led to concern and debate about their activity in a future greenhouse climate. It is also hypothesized that dry spells preceding triggering rainfall may increase slope predisposition to sliding, especially in the case of clay-rich soils. Here we combined dendrogeomorphic time series of landslides and climatic records to test the possible role of dry spells and extreme downpours on process activity in the Outer Western Carpathians (Central Europe). To this end, we tested time series of past frequencies and return periods of landslide reactivations at the regional scale with a Generalized Linear Mixed (GLM) model to explore linkages between landslide occurrences and triggering climate variables. Results show that landslide reactivations are concentrated during years in which spring and summer precipitation sums were significantly higher than usual, and that triggering mechanisms vary between different types of landslides (i.e. complex, shallow or flow-like). The GLM model also points to the susceptibility of landslide bodies to the combined occurrence of long, dry spells followed by large precipitation. Such situations are likely to increase in frequency in the future as climate models predict an enhancement of heatwaves and dry spells in future summers, that would be interrupted by less frequent, yet more intense storms, especially also in mountain regions.