Assessment of 21st century drought conditions at Shasta Dam based on dynamically projected water supply conditions by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model

Multi-hazard assessment of climate-related hazards for European coastal cities

The assessment of risk posed by climate change in coastal cities encompasses multiple climate-related hazards. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding and coastal erosion are important hazards, but they are not the only ones. The varying availability and quality of data across cities hinders the ability to conduct holistic and standardized multi-hazard assessments. Indeed, there are far fewer studies on multiple hazards than on single hazards. Also, the comparability of existing methodologies becomes challenging, making it difficult to establish a cohesive understanding of the overall vulnerability and resilience of coastal cities. The use of indicators allows for a standardized and systematic evaluation of baseline hazards across different cities. The methodology developed in this work establishes a framework to assess a wide variety of climate-related hazards across diverse coastal cities, including sea-level rise, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, heavy rainfall, land flooding, droughts, extreme temperatures, heatwaves, cold spells, strong winds and landslides. Indicators are produced and results are compared and mapped for ten European coastal cities. The indicators are meticulously designed to be applicable across different geographical contexts in Europe. In this manner, the proposed approach allows interventions to be prioritized based on the severity and urgency of the specific risks faced by each city.

Geographic modeling and simulation systems for geographic research in the new era: Some thoughts on their development and construction

Regionality, comprehensiveness, and complexity are regarded as the basic characteristics of geography. The exploration of their core connotations is an essential way to achieve breakthroughs in geography in the new era. This paper focuses on the important method in geographic research: Geographic modeling and simulation. First, we clarify the research requirements of the said three characteristics of geography and its potential to address geo-problems in the new era. Then, the supporting capabilities of the existing geographic modeling and simulation systems for geographic research are summarized from three perspectives: Model resources, modeling processes, and operational architecture. Finally, we discern avenues for future research of geographic modeling and simulation systems for the study of regional, comprehensive and complex characteristics of geography. Based on these analyses, we propose implementation architecture of geographic modeling and simulation systems and discuss the module composition and functional realization, which could provide theoretical and technical support for geographic modeling and simulation systems to better serve the development of geography in the new era.

An approach for runoff and sediment nexus analysis under multi-flow conditions in a hyper-concentrated sediment river, Southwest China

Nexus of runoff and sediment in watercourses is important for sustainable watershed management, especially in rivers with hyper-concentrated sediments. However, complex relationships between runoff and sediment were not fully understood. In this research, Mann-Kendall (MK) and moving t-test methods were used to confirm the suitable temporal range based on time series data of precipitation in the Anning River Basin from 1971 to 2017. At the same time, the month of typical precipitation (i.e., the largest annual average precipitation) was identified. A model of runoff and sediment over two stations from 2010 to 2015 were constructed respectively based on copula analysis method. Synchronous and asynchronous probabilities of runoff and sediment were analysed from the temporal and spatial aspects separately. The encounter probabilities of runoff and sediment over multiple periods and at two stations were analysed. The sediment distribution was illustrated under multiple runoff distribution conditions. The encounter probability of runoff and sediment distribution changed greatly, which was principally due to employment of reservoir operation, soil and water conservation measures. The variability of the joint probability was much obvious in tributary regions than that of the mainstream areas of Anning River basin. The results could be adopted to improve the understanding of interactive relationships between runoff and sediment and provide a significant references for regional management of soil and water.

Reconstruction and evaluation of changes in hydrologic conditions over a transboundary region by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model: Application to Thao river watershed

The differences among countries in terms of physical features, governmental policies, priorities in short- and long-term water resources management may lead to conflicts in managing and sharing of water resources over the transboundary regions. Due to no formal data sharing agreement between countries, there has been usually no data availability at transboundary regions. In this study, a methodology, in which a physically-based hydrology model was coupled with a regional climate model, is proposed to reconstruct and evaluate hydrologic conditions over transboundary regions. For the case study, Thao river watershed (TRW), within Vietnam and China, was selected. The Watershed Environmental Hydrology (WEHY) model was implemented based on topography, soil, and land use/cover information which was retrieved from global satellite data resources. The watershed model-WEHY was first validated over the TRW, and then was used to reconstruct historical hydrologic conditions during 1950-2007. The results of this study suggest no significant trend in the annual streamflow over the target watershed. In addition, there is a time shift in the wet season between the upstream sector in China and the downstream sector in Vietnam over the TRW. The annual flow contribution from the upstream sector in China to the outlet of TRW is estimated to be around 66%, and the remaining 34% contribution comes from the downstream sector in Vietnam territory. Last but not the least, the annual flow as a function of return period varies not only with the return period but also as a function of the time window, reflecting the effect of the changing regime on the streamflows at the TRW. The evolution of the flow frequency through time is an evidence of the ongoing non-stationarity in the hydrologic conditions over TRW.

Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters

There is high confidence that the anthropogenic increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is causing modifications in the Earth's climate. Coastal waterbodies such as estuaries, bays and lagoons are among those most affected by the ongoing changes in climate. Being located at the land-sea interface, such waterbodies are subjected to the combined changes in the physical-chemical processes of atmosphere, upstream land and coastal waters. Particularly, climate change is expected to alter phytoplankton communities by changing their environmental drivers (especially climate-related), thus exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication events, such as hypoxia, harmful algal blooms (HAB) and loss of habitat. A better understanding of the links between climate-related drivers and phytoplankton is therefore necessary for projecting climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we present the case study of the Zero river basin in Italy, one of the main contributors of freshwater and nutrient to the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, a coastal waterbody belonging to the lagoon of Venice. To project the impacts of climate change on freshwater inputs, nutrient loadings and their effects on the phytoplankton community of the receiving waterbody, we formulated and applied an integrated modelling approach made of: climate simulations derived by coupling a General Circulation Model (GCM) and a Regional Climate Model (RCM) under alternative emission scenarios, the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the ecological model AQUATOX. Climate projections point out an increase of precipitations in the winter period and a decrease in the summer months, while temperature shows a significant increase over the whole year. Water discharge and nutrient loads simulated by SWAT show a tendency to increase (decrease) in the winter (summer) period. AQUATOX projects changes in the concentration of nutrients in the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, and variations in the biomass and species of the phytoplankton community.

Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system.

A new method and a new index for identifying socioeconomic drought events under climate change: A case study of the East River basin in China

Drought is a complex natural hazard that may have destructive damages on societal properties and even lives. Generally, socioeconomic drought occurs when water resources systems cannot meet water demand, mainly due to a weather-related shortfall in water supply. This study aims to propose a new method, a heuristic method, and a new index, the socioeconomic drought index (SEDI), for identifying and evaluating socioeconomic drought events on different severity levels (i.e., slight, moderate, severe, and extreme) in the context of climate change. First, the minimum in-stream water requirement (MWR) is determined through synthetically evaluating the requirements of water quality, ecology, navigation, and water supply. Second, according to the monthly water deficit calculated as the monthly streamflow data minus the MWR, the drought month can be identified. Third, according to the cumulative water deficit calculated from the monthly water deficit, drought duration (i.e., the number of continuous drought months) and water shortage (i.e., the largest cumulative water deficit during the drought period) can be detected. Fourth, the SEDI value of each socioeconomic drought event can be calculated through integrating the impacts of water shortage and drought duration. To evaluate the applicability of the new method and new index, this study examines the drought events in the East River basin in South China, and the impact of a multi-year reservoir (i.e., the Xinfengjiang Reservoir) in this basin on drought analysis is also investigated. The historical and future streamflow of this basin is simulated using a hydrologic model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. For historical and future drought analysis, the proposed new method and index are feasible to identify socioeconomic drought events. The results show that a number of socioeconomic drought events (including some extreme ones) may occur in future, and the appropriate reservoir operation can significantly ease such situation.