Choice modeling of system-wide or large scale environmental change in a developing country context: Lessons from the Paraíba do Sul River

Immediate and informative feedback during a pandemic: Using stated preference analysis to predict vaccine uptake rates

In response to an emerging pandemic, there is urgent need for information regarding individual evaluation of risk and preferences toward mitigation strategies such as vaccinations. However, with social distancing policies and financial stress during an outbreak, traditional robust survey methodologies of face-to-face, probabilistic sampling, may not be feasible to deploy quickly, especially in developing countries. We recommend a protocol that calls for a sensitive survey design, acceptance of a web-based approach and adjustments for uncertainty of respondents, to deliver urgently needed information to policymakers as the public health crisis unfolds, rather than in its aftermath. This information is critical to tailor comprehensive vaccination campaigns that reach critical immunity thresholds. We apply our recommendations in a regional study of 16 Latin American countries in the month following index cases of COVID-19. We use a split-sample, contingent valuation approach to evaluate the effects of cost, duration of immunity and effectiveness of the vaccine. Our results show that cost and duration of immunity are significant factors in the decision to vaccinate, while the degree of effectiveness is insignificant, unless the vaccine is 100% effective. Income as well as perceived risk and severity of the virus are important determinants also.

A Non-Market Valuation Approach to Environmental Cost-Benefit Analysis for Sanitary Landfill Project Appraisal

Extensive non-engineered landfilling practice in developing countries has raised environmental concerns, but operating a sanitary landfill appears infeasible due to financial incapability. This study aims to determine the feasibility of a sanitary landfill project by including its environmental values into the project appraisal while simultaneously applying three policy-relevant methods—non-market valuation, benefits transfer, and cost-benefit analysis—in two study areas in Peninsular Malaysia. The non-market valuation study used choice modeling, a questionnaire-based technique, to elicit willingness to pay among 624 households toward the environmental attributes of the sanitary landfill. Their responses resulted in the monetary values of the environmental attributes by referring to implicit prices of leachate discharge, bad odor, disease vector and view. The implicit prices of bad odor (RM2.29 per month) and view (RM3.59 per month) in the two study areas were transferable and used as a proxy of additional solid waste disposal payment in environmental cost-benefit analysis. Positive net present value offers empirical evidence of the feasibility of the sanitary landfill project. The findings show that the inclusion of environmental values in project appraisals increases the chances of implementing sanitary landfills, providing a new approach to address the environmental concerns in developing countries. Future research should consider the external costs along with the external benefits to allow for a comprehensive comparison between environmental values in environmental cost-benefit analysis.

Hydrologic Validation of MERGE Precipitation Products over Anthropogenic Watersheds

Satellite rainfall estimates (SRFE) are a promising alternative for the lack of reliable, densely distributed, precipitation data common in developing countries and remote locations. SRFE may be significantly improved when corrected based on rain gauge data. In the present study the first complete validation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42-based MERGE product is performed by means of ground truthing and hydrological modeling-based applications. Four distinct, highly anthropogenic watersheds were selected in the Upper Paraíba do Sul River Basin (UPSRB)—Brazil. The results show that when compared to TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42V7 at the watershed scale, MERGE has a higher correlation with observed data. Likewise, root mean square errors and bias are significantly lower for MERGE products. When hydrologically validated, MERGE-based streamflow simulations have shown the capacity of reproducing the overall hydrological regime with “good” to “very good” results for the downstream lowland sections. Limitations were observed in the hydrological modeling of the upstream, highly anthropogenic, dammed watersheds. However, such limitations may not be attributed to MERGE precipitation since they were also obtained for the individually calibrated rain gauge-based simulations. The results indicate that the used MERGE dataset as a hydrological model input is better suited for application in the UPSRB than the TMPA 3B42V7.

Management and time preferences for lakes restoration in Brazil

As in many developing countries, the eutrophication of lakes has become one of the most severe environmental problems in Brazil. We implemented a choice experiment to investigate local preferences for the restoration of five lakes in the city of Campos dos Goytacazes, Brazil. This study focuses on two attributes of the proposed environmental project: 1) the delay in reaching the targeted level of water quality and 2) the institution that would manage the lakes restoration project. Choice responses are analyzed using a mixed logit model to control for potential heterogeneity among respondents. Results show that the willingness to pay for lakes restoration decays with restoration time in a non-linear fashion. Findings also indicate that respondents would prefer an interinstitutional, non-governmental committee over the municipal government to manage the lakes restoration project.