Predicting island biosecurity risk from introduced fauna using Bayesian Belief Networks

Bayesian Networks in Environmental Risk Assessment: A Review

Human activities both depend upon and have consequences on the environment. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a process of estimating the probability and consequences of the adverse effects of human activities and other stressors on the environment. Bayesian networks (BNs) can synthesize different types of knowledge and explicitly account for the probabilities of different scenarios, therefore offering a useful tool for ERA. Their use in formal ERA practice has not been evaluated, however, despite their increasing popularity in environmental modeling. This paper reviews the use of BNs in ERA based on peer-reviewed publications. Following a systematic mapping protocol, we identified studies in which BNs have been used in an environmental risk context and evaluated the scope, technical aspects, and use of the models and their results. The review shows that BNs have been applied in ERA, particularly in recent years, and that there is room to develop both the model implementation and participatory modeling practices. Based on this review and the authors' experience, we outline general guidelines and development ideas for using BNs in ERA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:62-78. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

New data on the aphid (Hemiptera, Aphididae) fauna of New Caledonia: some new biosecurity threats in a biodiversity hotspot

Thirty-three species of aphids are now established in New Caledonia. All species appear to have been introduced accidentally by human activity in the last century. Here, 17 aphid species are recorded for the first time: Aphiseugeniae, Aphisglycines, Aphisodinae, Aulacorthumsolani, Brachycaudushelichrysi, Cerataphisorchidearum, Greenideapsidii, Hyperomyzuscarduellinus, Hysteroneurasetariae, Lipaphispseudobrassicae, Micromyzuskatoi, Myzusornatus, Pentaloniacaladii, Rhopalosiphumnymphaeae, Rhopalosiphumrufiabdominale, Schizaphisrotundiventris, and Tetraneurafusiformis. Thirteen more species are also more or less regularly intercepted at the borders through biosecurity surveys, without further establishment. This demonstrates that aphids represent a major biosecurity threat, including a threat as potential plant virus vectors. The reinforcement of biosecurity is a priority for such biodiversity hotspots, from the perspectives of both agriculture and the native environment. Prioritisation and promotion of local development of vegetable and fruit production, rather than their risky importation from abroad, is desirable. Such an approach also should be promoted and extended to other Pacific islands, which all share the lack of native aphid fauna and their associated plant disease vector risks.

Hydrology-oriented forest management trade-offs. A modeling framework coupling field data, simulation results and Bayesian Networks

Hydrology-oriented forest management sets water as key factor of the forest management for adaptation due to water is the most limiting factor in the Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The aim of this study was to apply Bayesian Network modeling to assess potential indirect effects and trade-offs when hydrology-oriented forest management is applied to a real Mediterranean forest ecosystem. Water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and forest fire risk were included in the modeling framework. Field data from experimental plots were employed to calibrate and validate the mechanistic Biome-BGCMuSo model that simulates the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere. Many other 50-year long scenarios with different conditions to the ones measured in the field experiment were simulated and the outcomes employed to build the Bayesian Network in a linked chain of models. Hydrology-oriented forest management was very positive insofar as more water was made available to the stand because of an interception reduction. This resource was made available to the stand, which increased the evapotranspiration and its components, the soil water content and a slightly increase of deep percolation. Conversely, Stemflow was drastically reduced. No effect was observed on Runof due to the thinning treatment. The soil organic carbon content was also increased which in turn caused a greater respiration. The long-term effect of the thinning treatment on the LAI was very positive. This was undoubtedly due to the increased vigor generated by the greater availability of water and nutrients for the stand and the reduction of competence between trees. This greater activity resulted in an increase in GPP and vegetation carbon, and therefore, we would expect a higher carbon sequestration. It is worth emphasizing that this extra amount of water and nutrients was taken up by the stand and did not entail any loss of nutrients.