Combination of lumped hydrological and remote-sensing models to evaluate water resources in a semi-arid high altitude ungauged watershed of Sierra Nevada (Southern Spain)

Local reports of climate change impacts in Sierra Nevada, Spain: sociodemographic and geographical patterns

While we know that climate change is having different impacts on various ecosystems and regions of the world, we know less how the perception of such impacts varies within a population. In this study, we examine patterns of individual variation in climate change impacts reports using data from a sample (n = 238) drawn from 33 mountainous municipalities of Sierra Nevada, Spain. Sierra Nevada inhabitants report multiple climate change impacts, being the most frequently reported changes in snowfall and snow cover, abundance of terrestrial fauna, freshwater availability, and extreme temperatures. Reports of climate change impacts vary according to informants' sociodemographic characteristics and geographical location. People with life-long bonds with the environment and higher connection and dependence upon ecosystem services report more climate change impacts than other informants, as do people with lower level of schooling. We also found that reports of climate change impacts vary according to geographic areas, which reinforces the idea that climate change generates differentiated impacts even at small geographical scales. Understanding intracultural variation in reports of climate change impacts not only gives an enriched picture of the human dimensions of climate change but might also help design more targeted mitigation and adaptation responses.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-022-01981-5.

Modeling groundwater and surface water interaction: An overview of current status and future challenges

The interaction between surface water and groundwater constitutes a critical process to understand the quantitative and qualitative regime of dependent hydrosystems. A multi-scale approach combining cross-disciplinary techniques can considerably reduce uncertainties and provide an optimal understanding of groundwater and surface water exchanges. The simulation process constitutes the most effective tool for such analysis; however, its implementation requires a variety of data, a detailed analysis of the hydrosystem, and time to finalize a reliable solution. The results of the simulation process contribute to the raising of awareness for water protection and the application of better management strategies. Knowledge of models' parameters has great importance to ensure reliable results in the modeling process. In this study, a literature overview of modeling applications in groundwater - surface water interaction is provided. In this context, a comprehensive and holistic approach to groundwater and surface water simulation codes is here presented; results, case studies, and future challenges are also discussed. The main finding of the analysis highlights uncertainties and gaps in the modeling process due to the lack of high frequency and depth dependent field measurements. In many studies, authors underestimate the importance of the hydrogeological regime, and the discretization of hydraulic parameters is often lumped in a simplified manner. The modeling ethics in terms of data transparency and openness should be widely considered to improve the modeling results. The current study contributes to overcome common weaknesses of model applications, fulfils gaps in the existing literature, and highlights the importance of the modeling process in planning sustainable management of water resources.

Artificial recharge by means of careo channels versus natural aquifer recharge in a semi-arid, high-mountain watershed (Sierra Nevada, Spain)

The acequias de careo are ancestral water channels excavated during the early Al-Andalus period (8th-10th centuries), which are used to recharge aquifers in the watersheds of the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Southeastern Spain). The water channels are maintained by local communities, and their main function is collecting snowmelt, but also runoff from rainfall from the headwaters of river basins and distributing it throughout the upper parts of the slopes. This method of aquifer artificial recharge extends the availability of water resources in the lowlands of the river basins during the dry season when there is almost no precipitation and water demand is higher. This study investigates the contribution of the careo channels in the watershed of Bérchules concerning the total aquifer recharge during the 2014-2015 hydrological year. Several channels were gauged, and the runoff data were compared with those obtained from a semi-distributed hydrological model applied to the same hydrological basin. The natural infiltration of meteoric waters accounted for 52% of the total recharge, while the remaining 48% corresponded to water transported and infiltrated by the careo channels. In other words, the careo recharge system enhances by 92% the natural recharge to the aquifer. Our results demonstrate the importance of this ancestral and efficient channel system for recharging slope aquifers developed in hard rocks. The acequias de careo are nature-based solutions for increasing water resources availability that have contributed to a prosperous life in the Sierra Nevada. Its long history (>1200 years) suggests that the system has remarkable resilience properties, which have allowed adaptation and permance for centuries in drastically changing climatic and socioeconomic conditions. This recharge system could also be applied to -or inspire similar adaptation measures in- semi-arid mountain areas around the world where it may help in mitigating climate change effects.

Runoff Estimation in the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River Using an LSTM Model with Remote Sensing Data

Runoff estimations play an important role in water resource planning and management. Many accomplishments have been made in runoff estimations based on data recorded at meteorological stations; however, the advantages of the use of remotely sensed data in estimating runoff in watersheds for which data are lacking remain to be investigated. In this study, the MOD13A2 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), TRMM3B43 precipitation (P), MOD11A2 land–surface temperature (LST), MOD16A2 evapotranspiration (ET) and hydrological station data were used as data sources with which to estimate the monthly runoff through the application of a fully connected long short–term memory (LSTM) model in the upstream reach of the Heihe River basin in China from 2001 to 2016. The results showed that inputting multiple remote sensing parameters improved the quality of runoff estimation compared to the use of rain gauge observations; an increase in R2 from 0.91 to 0.94 was observed from the implementation of this process, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) showed an improvement from 0.89 to 0.93. The incorporation of rain gauge data as well as satellite data provided a slight improvement in estimating runoff with a respective R2 value of 0.95 and NSE value of 0.94. This indicates that the LSTM model based on remote sensing data has great potential for runoff estimation, and data obtained by remote sensing technology provide an alternative approach for estimating runoff in areas for which available data are lacking.

Isotopic content in high mountain karst aquifers as a proxy for climate change impact in Mediterranean zones: The Port del Comte karst aquifer (SE Pyrenees, Catalonia, Spain)

The objective of this work is to characterize the impact of climate change in the karst aquifer of the Port del Comte Massif (PCM). Six regional climate models (RCMs) from CLYM'PY Project are used to analyse the magnitude and trends of changes on precipitation and temperature (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) and how these changes propagate through the hydrogeological system as groundwater resources availability and the associated water isotopic content. The study uses the RCMs climate change forcings as input data to a combination of (1) a semi-distributed hydrological model for simulating the hydrodynamical response of the aquifer, and (2) a lumped parameter model for simulating the isotopic content in groundwater at the outlet of the aquifer. A mean decrease of 2.6% and 1.9% in yearly precipitation and a mean increase of 1.9 and 3.1 °C in average temperature is expected in PCM at the end of the 21st century in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. This climate signal entering the hydrogeological system results in a mean decrease in recharge of 3.9% and 0.5% from rainfall and of 59.3% and 76.1% from snowmelt, and a decrease of 7.6% and 4.5% in total system discharge, but also generates an isotopic enrichment in groundwater discharge (δ¹⁸O_GW) of 0.50‰ and 0.84‰, respectively. Moreover, from a long-term (2010-2100) perspective, the mean trend in δ¹⁸O_GW is 0.7‰/100 yr and 1.2‰/100 yr for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, resulting in easily measurable annual lapse rates with the current analytical methods.

Remote Sensing of River Discharge: A Review and a Framing for the Discipline

Remote sensing of river discharge (RSQ) is a burgeoning field rife with innovation. This innovation has resulted in a highly non-cohesive subfield of hydrology advancing at a rapid pace, and as a result misconceptions, mis-citations, and confusion are apparent among authors, readers, editors, and reviewers. While the intellectually diverse subfield of RSQ practitioners can parse this confusion, the broader hydrology community views RSQ as a monolith and such confusion can be damaging. RSQ has not been comprehensively summarized over the past decade, and we believe that a summary of the recent literature has a potential to provide clarity to practitioners and general hydrologists alike. Therefore, we here summarize a broad swath of the literature, and find after our reading that the most appropriate way to summarize this literature is first by application area (into methods appropriate for gauged, semi-gauged, regionally gauged, politically ungauged, and totally ungauged basins) and next by methodology. We do not find categorizing by sensor useful, and everything from un-crewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) to satellites are considered here. Perhaps the most cogent theme to emerge from our reading is the need for context. All RSQ is employed in the service of furthering hydrologic understanding, and we argue that nearly all RSQ is useful in this pursuit provided it is properly contextualized. We argue that if authors place each new work into the correct application context, much confusion can be avoided, and we suggest a framework for such context here. Specifically, we define which RSQ techniques are and are not appropriate for ungauged basins, and further define what it means to be ‘ungauged’ in the context of RSQ. We also include political and economic realities of RSQ, as the objective of the field is sometimes to provide data purposefully cloistered by specific political decisions. This framing can enable RSQ to respond to hydrology at large with confidence and cohesion even in the face of methodological and application diversity evident within the literature. Finally, we embrace the intellectual diversity of RSQ and suggest the field is best served by a continuation of methodological proliferation rather than by a move toward orthodoxy and standardization.

Contribution of isotopic research techniques to characterize high-mountain-Mediterranean karst aquifers: The Port del Comte (Eastern Pyrenees) aquifer

Water resources in high mountain karst aquifers are usually characterized by high rainfall, recharge and discharge that lead to the sustainability of the downstream ecosystems. Nevertheless, these hydrological systems are vulnerable to the global change impact. The mean transit time (MTT) is a key parameter to describe the behavior of these hydrologic systems and also to assess their vulnerability. This work is focused on estimating MTT by using environmental tracers in the framework of high-mountain karst systems with a very thick unsaturated zone (USZ). To this end, it is adapted to alpine zones a methodology that combines a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model to estimate recharge time series, and a lumped-parameter model to obtain ΜΤΤ. The methodology has been applied to the Port del Comte Massif (PCM) hydrological system (Southeastern Pyrenees, NE Spain), a karst aquifer system with an overlying 1000 m thick USZ. Six catchment areas corresponding to most important springs of the system are considered. The obtained results show that hydrologically the behavior of the system can be described by an exponential flow model (EM), with MTT ranging between 1.9 and 2.9 years. These ΜΤΤ values are shorter than those obtained by considering a constant recharge rate along time, which is the easiest and most applied aquifer recharge hypothesis when estimating ΜΤΤ through lumped-parameter models.

Groundwater dynamics in a hydrologically-modified alpine watershed from an ancient managed recharge system (Sierra Nevada National Park, Southern Spain): Insights from hydrogeochemical and isotopic information

In many of the alpine watersheds of Sierra Nevada (Southern Spain) exists an ancient network of dug canals that collect, transport and facilitate the recharge the snowmelt in the underlying aquifer during the spring season. This practice, known as careos, in the lower part of the watersheds supply drinking water as spring discharge during the dry season. To study how this managed recharge technique modifies the natural response of these basins this work focuses on characterizing the hydrological behavior of one of the sites, the Berchules watershed. The mechanisms for mineralization of groundwater are based on geochemical processes such as evapo-concentration in the soil layer and silicate mineral weathering due to dissolved CO₂ originated from both soil biogenic processes and the atmosphere. Groundwater presents a main hydrogeochemical calcium‑magnesium-bicarbonate type facies, which is associated to groundwater flowing through the upper weathered silicates and quickly drained through springs located in the uplands and in the intermediate altitude catchment zone. Additionally, in the lower part of the basin some springs discharge mineralized groundwater with a sodium-calcium-bicarbonate composition associated to regional groundwater flow. In natural conditions, this hydrogeological system behaves as a sloping aquifer, occurring recharge between 1400 and 2500 m a.s.l. The springs discharge groundwater with an isotopic content and temperature in coherence with the local rainfall isotopic and thermal atmospheric altitudinal lines. Nevertheless, once the careo recharge begins the affected springs reveal the fingerprint of the concentrated recharge system by blurring the fingerprint of both the isotopic and thermal altitudinal dependence in the springs discharge. This validates the previous conceptual model and supports average recharge values of 141 ± 140 mm/yr and total average water resources of 181 ± 111 mm/yr which include a 40% increase in the study period due to the effect of the acequias de careo.

Simple and Low-Cost Procedure for Monthly and Yearly Streamflow Forecasts during the Current Hydrological Year

Accurately forecasting streamflow values is essential to achieve an efficient, integrated water resources management strategy and to provide consistent support to water decision-makers. We present a simple, low-cost, and robust approach for forecasting monthly and yearly streamflows during the current hydrological year, which is applicable to headwater catchments. The procedure innovatively combines the use of well-known regression analysis techniques, the two-parameter Gamma continuous cumulative probability distribution function and the Monte Carlo method. Several model performance statistics metrics (including the Coefficient of Determination R2; the Root-Mean-Square Error RMSE; the Mean Absolute Error MAE; the Index of Agreement IOA; the Mean Absolute Percent Error MAPE; the Coefficient of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE; and the Inclusion Coefficient IC) were used and the results showed good levels of accuracy (improving as the number of observed months increases). The model forecast outputs are the mean monthly and yearly streamflows along with the 10th and 90th percentiles. The methodology has been successfully applied to two headwater reservoirs within the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain, achieving an accuracy of 92% and 80% in March 2017. These risk-based predictions are of great value, especially before the intensive irrigation campaign starts in the middle of the hydrological year, when Water Authorities have to ensure that the right decision is made on how to best allocate the available water volume between the different water users and environmental needs.