Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers

Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life-history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life-history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation-based atmospheric forcing data. Length-at-age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree days calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2-year-old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1-year-old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size-based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size-based threshold will instead become 2-year-old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2-year-old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age- and size-at-seaward migration could have cascading effects on age- and size-at-maturity and reproductive output. Consequently, the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length-at-age model with minimal input requirements, fostering improved general understanding of phenotypic and demographic responses to climate change and management implications.

A potential growth thermal index for estimating juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) size-at-age across geographical scales

We present a potential growth thermal index (PGTI) and assess its correlation with juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar fork length data collected near the end of the growth season in a range of latitudinal locations and geographic scales (watershed, regional, continental) across the American north-east. The PGTI is based on two components: a water temperature-dependent growth curve and a water temperature time series continuously describing the thermal environment preceding fish sampling. Testing various shapes and characteristics of the temperature-growth curve against fish length data revealed strong positive correlations for all combinations. PGTI warming, calculated only from the beginning of the growth season until maximum summer temperature is reached, consistently performed well in explaining fish size-at-age across the latitudinal gradient and the three geographic scales that were considered. Varying thermal contrasts created by repeat subsampling of the dataset showed that fish length is better explained by the level of thermal contrast within the dataset than the geographical scale of analysis. A simple generalized linear model using a log link function with PGTI warming, fish density and water discharge as predictors explained 87% of the variance of size-at-age of 0+ and 1+ juvenile Atlantic salmon.

Climate change and anadromous fish: How does thermal acclimation affect the mechanics of the myotomal muscle of the Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar?

In response to accelerated temperature shifts due to climate change, the survival of many species will require forms of thermal acclimation to their changing environment. We were interested in how climate change will impact a commercially and recreationally important species of fish, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). As climate change alters the thermal environment of their natal streams, we asked how their muscle function will be altered by extended exposure to both warm and cold temperatures. We performed a thermal acclimation study of S. salar muscle mechanics of both fast-twitch, or white, and slow-twitch, or red, myotomal muscle bundles to investigate how temperature acclimated Atlantic salmon would respond across a range of different temperatures. Isometric contraction properties, maximum shortening velocity, and oscillatory power output were measured and compared amongst three groups of salmon-warm acclimated (20°C), cold-acclimated (2°C), and those at their rearing temperature (12°C). The Atlantic salmon showed limited thermal acclimation in their contraction kinetics, and some of the shifts in contractile properties that were observed would not be predicted to mitigate the impact of a warming environment. For instance, the maximum shortening velocity at a common test temperature was higher in the warm acclimated group and lower in the cold-acclimated group. In addition, critical swimming speed did not vary with temperature of acclimation when tested at a common temperature (12°C). Our results suggest that Atlantic salmon populations will continue to struggle in response to a warming environment.

Mechanistic simulations predict that thermal and hydrological effects of climate change on Mediterranean trout cannot be offset by adaptive behaviour, evolution, and increased food production

Streamflow is a main driver of fish population dynamics and is projected to decrease in much of the northern hemisphere, especially in the Mediterranean region, due to climate change. However, predictions of future climate effects on cold-water freshwater fish populations have typically focused only on the ecological consequences of increasing temperatures, overlooking the concurrent and interacting effects of climate-driven changes in streamflow regimes. Here, we present simulations that contrasted the consequences of changes in thermal regime alone versus the combined effects of changes in thermal regime and streamflow for resident trout populations in distinct river types with different sensitivities to climatic change (low-altitude main river vs. high-altitude headwaters). We additionally assessed the buffering effect of increased food production that may be linked to warming. We used an eco-genetic individual-based model that integrates the behavioural and physiological effects of extrinsic environmental drivers -temperature and flow- with intrinsic dynamics -density-dependence, phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary responses - across the entire trout life cycle, with Mediterranean brown trout Salmo trutta as the model species. Our simulations indicated that: (1) Hydrological change is a critical dimension of climate change for the persistence of trout populations, in that neither river type supported viable populations under strong rates of flow change, even under scenarios of increased food production. (2) Climate-change-related environmental change most affects the largest, oldest trout via increased metabolic costs and decreased energy inputs. In both river types, populations persisted under extreme warming alone but became dominated by younger, smaller fish. (3) Density-dependent, plastic and evolutionary changes in phenology and life-history traits provide trout populations with important resilience to warming, but strong concurrent shifts in streamflow could exceed the buffering conferred by such intrinsic dynamics.