Evaluation of the CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) for simulating climate extremes in the Asian cities

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models for application to hydrological modelling studies - A case study of Australia

Accurate estimation of climate change impacts on catchment hydrology is essential for effective future water management. The efficacy of such estimations is dependent on proper climate model selection. In this study, an attempt was made to formulate a methodology for climate model selection, evaluating eight climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The models were assessed for their ability to simulate variables used in hydrological studies and large-scale atmospheric circulation influencing rainfall in Australia. Five statistical indicators Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Spatial Correlation (SC), Percentage Bias (Pbias), Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were used to evaluate the performance, and the models were ranked through Compromise Programming (CP), a multiple criteria decision making technique. Results show that HadGEM3-GC31-LL performed well in most of the categories considered and was top top-ranked model overall followed by GFDL-ESM4, CESM2-CAM6-RT, and CanESM5 for Australia. Conversely, MIROC6 consistently ranked lower in most of the categories. In the context of simulating hydrological variables, CESM2-CAM6-RT, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and GFDL-ESM4 emerged as the top three models. The robustness of the proposed methodology suggests its applicability for model selection, making it a replicable approach for climate change impact assessment studies in diverse regions.

Lapse rate-adjusted bias correction for CMIP6 GCM precipitation data: An application to the Monsoon Asia Region

Bias correction (BC) of General Circulation Models (GCMs) variables is a common practice when it is being used for climate impact assessment studies at regional scales. The present study proposes a bias correction method (LR-Reg) that first adjusts the original GCM precipitation for local lapse rate corrections and later bias corrects the lapse rate-adjusted GCMs precipitation data with linear regression coefficients. We evaluated LR-Reg BC method in comparison to Linear Scaling (LS) and Quantile Mapping (QMap) BC methods, and NASA's downscaled NEX data for Monsoon Asia region. This study used Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)-based MIROC6 GCM precipitation with historical and projected shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) datasets. The BC comparison results show that the relative percentage reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) values of LR-Reg over LS-BC was up to 10-30% while this relative reduction in MAE values of LR-Reg was 30-50% over QMap-BC and 75-100% over NASA's NEX-data. The future projected precipitation over Monsoon Asia during dry season shows more decreased precipitation by up to 100% mostly in the south Asia while during wet season shows more increased precipitation by up to 50% mostly in the northeastern China and in the Himalayan belts with respect to the baseline condition (1970-2005). The results on the average precipitation per 0.25 degree increase in latitude analysis shows that the maximums of average monsoon precipitation during baseline period occur at 0 and 25 degree latitudes while the projected monsoon precipitation during both SSP scenarios occurs at 10 and 20 degree latitudes which clearly shows an inward shift in the latitude axis for the projected precipitation in the Monsoon Asia.

Impact of climate change induced future rainfall variation on dynamics of arid-humid zone transition in the western province of India

The transition of the Earth's climate from one zone to another is one of the major causes behind biodiversity loss, rural-urban migration, and increasing food crises. The rising rate of arid-humid zone transition due to climate change has been substantially visible in the last few decades. However, the precise quantification of the climate change-induced rainfall variation on the climate zone transition still remained a challenge. To solve the issue, the Representative Grid Location-Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (RGL-MARS) downscaling algorithm was coupled with the Koppen climate classification scheme to project future changes in various climate zones for the study area. It was observed that the performance of the model was better for the humid clusters compared to the arid clusters. It was noticed that, by the end of the 21^st century, the arid region would increase marginally and the humid region would rise by 24.28-36.09% for the western province of India. In contrast, the area of the semi-arid and semi-humid regions would decline for the study area. It was observed that there would be an extensive conversion of semi-humid to humid zone in the peripheral region of the Arabian sea due to the strengthening of land-sea thermal contrast caused by climate change. Similarly, semi-arid to arid zone conversion would also increase due to the inflow of dry air from the Arabian region. The current research would be helpful for the researchers and policymakers to take appropriate measures to reduce the rate of climate zone transition, thereby developing the socioeconomic status of the rural and urban populations.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi inoculation and phosphorus application improve growth, physiological traits, and grain yield of rice under alternate wetting and drying irrigation

Climate change and agricultural malpractices are exacerbating drought in many parts of the world causing a substantial agricultural production loss. The improvement of drought tolerance in rice is crucial for maintaining productivity and ensuring global food security. Alternate wetting and drying (AWD) irrigation along with plant-microbe interaction through arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) is a potential approach for enhancing rice production through AMF-induced up-regulation of tolerance and resilience against drought stress. Therefore, the ameliorative role of AMF inoculation and phosphorus (P) application on growth, physiological traits, and grain yield of rice was evaluated under water stress imposed through AWD irrigation. A factorial experiment consisting of four fertilizer treatments where the P percentage varied along with the recommended dose of nitrogen (N) with or without AMF inoculation (P₁₀₀ as the control, P₁₀₀ + AMF, P₇₅ + AMF, and P₅₀ + AMF), three soil water potential levels (0, -15, and -30 kPa), and two cultivation methods (wet direct seeding and transplanting) was conducted in a polyhouse. The subscript values of 100, 75, and 50 under P represent 100%, 75%, and 50% of the recommended field application dose. Data were collected on selected growth parameters, physiological traits, levels of mycorrhizal colonization, yield and its components, and water productivity of rice. The results revealed that P₁₀₀ + AMF inoculated plants had 11%, 14%, 74%, and 54% higher leaf greenness, leaf relative water content, net photosynthetic rate, and grain yield, respectively, for wet direct-seeded plants at reduced soil water potential (-30 kPa) compared with non-inoculated plants (P₁₀₀). Free proline accumulation gradually enhanced with decreasing soil water potential, and it was maximized by 77% at -30 kPa compared with 0 kPa for P₅₀ + AMF (for transplanted plants). Free proline accumulation was also higher with decreasing soil water potential in AMF-inoculated plants than non-inoculated plants regardless of cultivation methods. Leaf osmotic potential was reduced by -0.5 to -1.2 MPa at -30 kPa compared with 0 kPa under different fertilizer doses. However, AMF inoculation (P₁₀₀ + AMF and P₇₅ + AMF) improved leaf osmotic potential of plants under severe water stress (-30 kPa) maintained through AWD irrigation resulting in better osmotic adjustment than non-inoculated plants. AMF inoculation improved the response of most of the evaluated physiological traits of rice and enhanced grain yield with higher P availability (even with a 25% reduction in its recommended dose) in the rhizosphere under drought stress. Thus, it can be concluded that AMF inoculation coupled with judicious P management is a promising approach for improving physiological and biochemical traits, grain yield, and water productivity of rice under AWD irrigation regardless of cultivation methods.

Impacts of climate and land use change on groundwater recharge under shared socioeconomic pathways: A case of Siem Reap, Cambodia

The rapid pace of urbanization blended with climate change has significantly altered surface and groundwater flows. In the context of tourism-driven economic potential areas, these drivers have greater effects, including threatening groundwater availability. This study assessed the combined impacts of climate and land use changes on the groundwater recharge (GWR) in Siem Reap, Cambodia utilizing Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs), DynaCLUE land-use model, and Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Three climate models CanESM5, EC_Earth3, and MIROC6, out of seven, best captured the observed data after performance evaluation through the entropy method, were bias-corrected linearly for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) - SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The results indicate a general increase in precipitation under both SSPs, while the average annual maximum temperature is likely to increase by 0.024 °C/year and 0.049 °C/year under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. A similar trend but relatively higher increase is expected for the minimum temperature. Furthermore, the historical land use change showed the expansion of urban settlement by 373% between 2004 and 2019 at the expense of forest and shrubland. Future land use projections from the DynaCLUE model show that the urban settlements in the study area are likely to expand, from their 2019 condition, by 55% in 2030, 209% in 2060, and 369% in 2090 under SSP2 and at double of these rates under SSP5 scenario. The GWR is expected to rise by 39-53% during the wet season and decrease by 13-29% during the dry season under both scenarios. Meanwhile, under constant land use, the GWR is likely to increase more compared to other scenarios, highlighting the importance of land use planning to policymakers and planners. Additionally, the study shall also be important to practitioners and researchers in understanding, planning, and evaluating the performance of multiple climate models in groundwater assessment.