Zhang S, Huang H, Peng D, Zhu Y, Dong D, Huang H, Chu J. Potential distribution projections of mangrove forests and invasive plants under climate change: case insights from mangrove management in Guangdong Province, China.
MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2025;
218:118131. [PMID:
40449471 DOI:
10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118131]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2024] [Revised: 05/07/2025] [Accepted: 05/07/2025] [Indexed: 06/03/2025]
Abstract
Mangrove ecosystems are vital for maintaining biodiversity, purifying water, sequestering carbon, and mitigating climate change in coastal regions. The geographical distribution of mangrove forests has been severely affected by global warming; therefore, it must be predicted under future climate scenarios to provide a scientific basis for conservation and restoration. In this study, we employed the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of suitable mangrove areas in Guangdong Province under current conditions and two future climate scenarios (2030s and 2090s): SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. The potential distributions of introduced mangrove plants (Laguncularia racemosa and Sonneratia apetala) were assessed to evaluate their suitability for mangrove restoration. Furthermore, we investigated the invasive potential of Spartina alterniflora, a biologically invasive species in mangrove ecosystems, under different climate scenarios. Finally, a conservation gap analysis was conducted to identify priority areas for mangrove protection. We observed the following: i) main environmental factors affecting the distribution pattern of mangroves in Guangdong Province were temperature and water quality; ii) hotspots of mangrove distribution are mainly concentrated in the Beibu Gulf coastline, Leizhou Gulf coastline, Zhenhai Bay-Dongping Harbor-Beijin Bay coastline, Zhuhai Harbor-Guangzhou Bay-Humen-Mawan Bay, Shuangyue Bay, and Rongjiang River estuary; iii) optimal zone of mangroves was the largest under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and the potential suitable zone and geometric center of mangroves gradually shifted to higher latitudes; iv) the protection and restoration of mangroves should be prioritized in the future in the zones of Anpu Harbor, Leizhou Bay, Zhenhai Bay, and Huangmaohai and coastline of Pearl River Estuary.
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