Development and external validation of prediction models for adverse health outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis: A multinational real-world cohort analysis

External validation of a multi-biomarker-based score for predicting risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

BACKGROUND

A multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA)-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score was developed and internally validated in a Medicare cohort to predict 3-year risk for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or CVD death in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It combines the MBDA score, leptin, MMP-3, TNF-R1, age and four clinical variables. We are now externally validating it in a younger RA cohort.

METHODS

Claims data from a private aggregator were linked to MBDA test data to create a cohort of RA patients ≥18 years old. A univariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was fit using the MBDA-based CVD risk score as sole predictor of time-to-a-CVD event (hospitalized MI or stroke). Hazard ratio (HR) estimate was determined for all patients and for clinically relevant subgroups. A multivariable Cox model evaluated whether the MBDA-based CVD risk score adds predictive information to clinical data.

RESULTS

49,028 RA patients (340 CVD events) were studied. Mean age was 52.3 years; 18.3% were male. HR for predicting 3-year risk of a CVD event by the MBDA-based CVD risk score in the full cohort was 3.99 (95% CI: 3.51-4.49, p = 5.0×10-95). HR were also significant for subgroups based on age, comorbidities, disease activity, and drug use. In a multivariable model, the MBDA-based CVD risk score added significant information to hypertension, diabetes, tobacco use, history of CVD, age, sex and CRP (HR = 2.27, p = 1.7×10-7).

CONCLUSION

The MBDA-based CVD risk score has been externally validated in an RA cohort that is younger than and independent of the Medicare cohort that was used for development and internal validation.

A Stepwise Approach to Analyzing Musculoskeletal Imaging Data With Artificial Intelligence

The digitization of medical records and expanding electronic health records has created an era of "Big Data" with an abundance of available information ranging from clinical notes to imaging studies. In the field of rheumatology, medical imaging is used to guide both diagnosis and treatment of a wide variety of rheumatic conditions. Although there is an abundance of data to analyze, traditional methods of image analysis are human resource intensive. Fortunately, the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) may be a solution to handle large datasets. In particular, computer vision is a field within AI that analyzes images and extracts information. Computer vision has impressive capabilities and can be applied to rheumatologic conditions, necessitating a need to understand how computer vision works. In this article, we provide an overview of AI in rheumatology and conclude with a five step process to plan and conduct research in the field of computer vision. The five steps include (1) project definition, (2) data handling, (3) model development, (4) performance evaluation, and (5) deployment into clinical care.

Prognostic factors for liver, blood and kidney adverse events from glucocorticoid sparing immune-suppressing drugs in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a prognostic systematic review

BACKGROUND

Immune-suppressing drugs can cause liver, kidney or blood toxicity. Prognostic factors for these adverse-events are poorly understood.

PURPOSE

To ascertain prognostic factors associated with liver, blood or kidney adverse-events in people receiving immune-suppressing drugs.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE and the Cochrane library (01 January 1995 to 05 January 2023), and supplementary sources.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Data were extracted by one reviewer using a modified CHARMS-PF checklist and validated by another. Two independent reviewers assessed risk of bias using Quality in Prognostic factor Studies tool and assessed the quality of evidence using a Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation-informed framework.

RESULTS

Fifty-six studies from 58 papers were included. High-quality evidence of the following associations was identified: elevated liver enzymes (6 studies) and folate non-supplementation (3 studies) are prognostic factors for hepatotoxicity in those treated with methotrexate; that mercaptopurine (vs azathioprine) (3 studies) was a prognostic factor for hepatotoxicity in those treated with thiopurines; that mercaptopurine (vs azathioprine) (3 studies) and poor-metaboliser status (4 studies) were prognostic factors for cytopenia in those treated with thiopurines; and that baseline elevated liver enzymes (3 studies) are a prognostic factor for hepatotoxicity in those treated with anti-tumour necrosis factors. Moderate and low quality evidence for several other demographic, lifestyle, comorbidities, baseline bloods/serologic or treatment-related prognostic factors were also identified.

LIMITATIONS

Studies published before 1995, those with less than 200 participants and not published in English were excluded. Heterogeneity between studies included different cut-offs for prognostic factors, use of different outcome definitions and different adjustment factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostic factors for target-organ damage were identified which may be further investigated for their potential role in targeted (risk-stratified) monitoring.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020208049.

Transforming Estonian health data to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model: lessons learned

Objective

To describe the reusable transformation process of electronic health records (EHR), claims, and prescriptions data into Observational Medical Outcome Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (CDM), together with challenges faced and solutions implemented.

Materials and Methods

We used Estonian national health databases that store almost all residents' claims, prescriptions, and EHR records. To develop and demonstrate the transformation process of Estonian health data to OMOP CDM, we used a 10% random sample of the Estonian population (n = 150 824 patients) from 2012 to 2019 (MAITT dataset). For the sample, complete information from all 3 databases was converted to OMOP CDM version 5.3. The validation was performed using open-source tools.

Results

In total, we transformed over 100 million entries to standard concepts using standard OMOP vocabularies with the average mapping rate 95%. For conditions, observations, drugs, and measurements, the mapping rate was over 90%. In most cases, SNOMED Clinical Terms were used as the target vocabulary.

Discussion

During the transformation process, we encountered several challenges, which are described in detail with concrete examples and solutions.

Conclusion

For a representative 10% random sample, we successfully transferred complete records from 3 national health databases to OMOP CDM and created a reusable transformation process. Our work helps future researchers to transform linked databases into OMOP CDM more efficiently, ultimately leading to better real-world evidence.

Evaluating a novel approach to stimulate open science collaborations: a case series of "study-a-thon" events within the OHDSI and European IMI communities

OBJECTIVE

We introduce and review the concept of a study-a-thon as a catalyst for open science in medicine, utilizing harmonized real world, observation health data, tools, skills, and methods to conduct network studies, generating insights for those wishing to use study-a-thons for future research.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A series of historical study-a-thons since 2017 to present were reviewed for thematic insights as to the opportunity to accelerate the research method to conduct studies across therapeutic areas. Review of publications and experience of the authors generated insights to illustrate the conduct of study-a-thons, key learning, and direction for those wishing to conduct future such study-a-thons.

RESULTS

A review of six study-a-thons have provided insights into their scientific impact, and 13 areas of insights for those wishing to conduct future study-a-thons. Defining aspects of the study-a-thon method for rapid, collaborative research through network studies reinforce the need to clear scientific rationale, tools, skills, and methods being collaboratively to conduct a focused study. Well-characterized preparatory, execution and postevent phases, coalescing skills, experience, data, clinical input (ensuring representative clinical context to the research query), and well-defined, logical steps in conducting research via the study-a-thon method are critical.

CONCLUSIONS

A study-a-thon is a focused multiday research event generating reliable evidence on a specific medical topic across different countries and health systems. In a study-a-thon, a multidisciplinary team collaborate to create an accelerated contribution to scientific evidence and clinical practice. It critically accelerates the research process, without inhibiting the quality of the research output and evidence generation, through a reproducible process.