Rurality and opioid prescribing rates in U.S. counties from 2006 to 2018: A spatiotemporal investigation

Spatiotemporal analysis of substance use disorder mortality in the United States: an observational study of emerging hotspots and vulnerable populations (2005-2020)

Background

The escalating substance use disorder (SUD) crisis in the contiguous United States (US), with rising mortality since 1999, necessitates a spatiotemporal analysis to identify high-risk areas and vulnerable populations. This study examines the geospatial distribution and clustering patterns of SUD mortality, assessing disparities by race and urban-rural status.

Methods

We analyzed county-level ecological data on SUD-related deaths from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from 2005 to 2020. Using spatial scan statistics, we identified significant clusters of elevated SUD mortality and assessed shifts over time. The analysis stratified results by race (White and Black subpopulations) and urban-rural classification to explore disparities.

Findings

Among 3142 U.S. counties, we identified 27 significant spatiotemporal clusters of elevated SUD mortality, primarily emerging post-2013 and persisting until 2020. The epidemic's epicenter shifted from the western to the eastern U.S. around 2016. Clusters in the White population (n = 26) had an estimated mortality rate of 28.42 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 28.30-28.54), compared to 14.83 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 14.74-14.92) outside clusters. For the Black population (n = 17), the mortality rate was 33.16 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 32.80-33.51) within clusters, versus 13.36 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 13.14-13.59) outside. Clusters in the Black population emerged later, mostly after 2013, while White clusters followed a pattern similar to the general population. The urban SUD mortality rate was 1.30 per 10,000 per year, while the rural mortality rate was 1.03 per 10,000 per year. Within clusters, urban counties had a mortality rate of 1.61 per 10,000, compared to 0.97 per 10,000 outside. Rural counties had 1.43 per 10,000 in clusters, while non-clustered rural areas had 0.81 per 10,000.

Interpretation

The shifting geographic and racial patterns of SUD mortality underscore the need for targeted, region-specific interventions. The increasing impact on Black populations and urban centers in the East highlights the importance of equitable access to treatment and harm reduction services. Real-time surveillance and tailored urban-rural strategies are essential to mitigate the evolving crisis.

Funding

None.

The Imperative of Regulation: The Co-creation of a Medical and Non-medical US Opioid Crisis

The ravaging COVID-19 pandemic has almost pushed into oblivion the fact that the United States is still struggling with an immense addiction crisis. Drug overdose deaths rose from 16,849 in 1999 to nearly 110000-of which an estimated 75,000 involved opioids-in 2022. On a yearly basis, the opioid casualty rate is higher than the combined number of victims of firearm violence and car accidents. The Covid-19 epidemic might have helped to worsen the addiction crisis by stimulating drug use among adolescents and diverting national attention to yet another public health crisis. In the past decade the sharpest increase in deaths occurred among those related to fentanyl and fentanyl analogs (illicitly manufactured, synthetic opioids of greater potency). In the first opioid crisis wave (1998-2010), opioid-related deaths were mainly associated with prescription opioids such as Oxycontin (oxycodone hydrochloride). The mass prescription of these narcotic drugs did anything but control the pervasive phenomenon of 'addiction on prescription' that played such an important role in the emergence and robustness of the US opioid crisis. Using a long-term drug lifecycle analytic approach in this article I will show how opioid producing pharmaceutical companies created a medical market for opioid painkillers. They thus fueled a consumer demand for potent opioid drugs that was eagerly capitalized on by criminal entrepreneurs and their international logistic networks. I will also point out the failure of US authorities to effectively respond to this crisis due to the gap between narcotic product regulation, regulation of marketing practices and the rise of a corporate dominated health care system. Ironically, this turned the most powerful geopolitical force in the war against drugs into its greatest victim. Due to formulary availability and regulatory barriers to accessibility European countries have been relatively protected against following suit the US opioid crisis.

Drivers of Individual and Regional Variation in CMS Hierarchical Condition Categories Among Florida Beneficiaries

Objective

To explore hierarchical condition categories (HCC) risk score variation among Florida Fee for Service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries between 2016 and 2018.

Data Sources

This study analyzed HCC risk score variation using Medicare claims data for Florida beneficiaries enrolled in Parts A & B between 2016 and 2018.

Study Design

The CMS methodology analyzed HCC risk score variation using annual mean county- and beneficiary-level risk score changes. The association between variation and beneficiary characteristics, diagnoses, and geographic location was characterized using mixed-effects negative binomial regression models.

Data Collection

Not applicable.

Principal Findings

Counties in the Northeast [marginal effect (ME)=-0.003], Central (ME=-0.021), and Southwest (ME=-0.009) Florida have relatively lower mean risk scores. A higher number of lifetime (ME=0.246) and treatable (ME=0.288) conditions were associated with higher county-level risk scores, while more preventable conditions (ME=-0.249) were associated with lower risk scores. Counties with older beneficiaries (ME=0.015) and more Blacks (ME=0.070) have higher risk scores, while having female beneficiaries reduced risk scores (ME=-0.005). Individual risk scores did not vary by age (ME=0.000), but Blacks (ME=0.001) had higher rates of variation relative to Whites, while other races had comparatively lower variation (ME=-0.003). In addition, individuals diagnosed with more lifetime (ME=0.129), treatable (ME=0.235), and preventable (ME=0.001) conditions had higher risk score variation. Most condition-specific indicators showed small associations with risk score changes; however, metastatic cancer/acute leukemia, respirator dependence/tracheostomy, and pressure ulcers of the skin were significantly associated with both types of HCC risk score variation.

Conclusion

Results showed demographics, HCC condition classifications (ie, lifetime, preventable, and treatable), and some specific conditions were associated with higher variation in mean county-level and individual risk scores. Results suggest consistent coding and reductions in the prevalence of certain treatable or preventable conditions could reduce the county and individual HCC risk score year-to-year change.

Aging in Rural Communities

Purpose of Review

Population aging is occurring worldwide, particularly in developed countries such as the United States (US). However, in the US, the population is aging more rapidly in rural areas than in urban areas. Healthy aging in rural areas presents unique challenges. Understanding and addressing those challenges is essential to ensure healthy aging and promote health equity across the lifespan and all geographies. This review aims to present findings and evaluate recent literature (2019-2022) on rural aging and highlight future directions and opportunities to improve population health in rural communities.

Recent Findings

The review first addresses several methodological considerations in measuring rurality, including the choice of measure used, the composition of each measure, and the limitations and drawbacks of each measure. Next, the review considers important concepts and context when describing what it means to be rural, including social, cultural, economic, and environmental conditions. The review assesses several key epidemiologic studies addressing rural-urban differences in population health among older adults. Health and social services in rural areas are then discussed in the context of healthy aging in rural areas. Racial and ethnic minorities, indigenous peoples, and informal caregivers are considered as special populations in the discussion of rural older adults and healthy aging. Lastly, the review provides evidence to support critical longitudinal, place-based research to promote healthy aging across the rural-urban divide is highlighted.

Summary

Policies, programs, and interventions to reduce rural-urban differences in population health and to promote health equity and healthy aging necessitate a context-specific approach. Considering the cultural context and root causes of rural-urban differences in population health and healthy aging is essential to support the real-world effectiveness of such programs, policies, and interventions.