Spatio-temporal variability of bovine tuberculosis eradication in Spain (2006-2011)

Large scale spatio-temporal modelling of risk factors associated with tuberculosis exposure at the wildlife-livestock interface

The management of animal tuberculosis (TB) is a priority for European Union animal health authorities. However, and despite all the efforts made to date, a significant part of Spain has as yet been unable to obtain the officially tuberculosis-free (OTF) status. Information regarding wildlife disease status is usually scarce, signifying that the role played by wildlife is usually ignored or poorly assessed in large-scale TB risk factor studies. The National Wildlife Health Surveillance Plan in Spain now provides information on infection rates in wildlife reservoirs at a national level, but there are limitations as regards the sample size, the spatio-temporal distribution of the samples, and the lack of homogeneity of the diagnostic techniques employed. The objective of the study described herein was, therefore, to employ a Bayesian approach with the intention of identifying the risk factors associated with four TB rates in cattle: prevalence, incidence, maintenance and persistence in Spain during the period 2014-2019. The modeling approach included highly informative spatio-temporal latent effects with which to control the limitations of the data. Variation partitioning procedures were carried out, and the pure effect of each factor was mapped in order to identify the most relevant factors associated with TB dynamics in cattle in each region. This made it possible to disclose that the movement of cattle, particularly from counties with herd incidence > 1%, was the main driver of the TB dynamics in cattle. The abundance of herds bred for bullfighting was retained in all four models, but had less weight than the movements. After accounting for farm-related factors, the TB prevalence in wild boar was retained in all the models and was significantly related to incidence, maintenance and persistence. With regard to the incidence, variation partitioning revealed that wildlife was the most explicative factor, thus suggesting that it plays a role in the introduction of the pathogen into uninfected herds, and consequently highlighting its importance in breakdowns. These results show, for the first time on a national scale, that wild ungulates play a relevant role in the spatio-temporal variability of TB in cattle, particularly as regards their disease status. Moreover, the spatial representation of the pure effect of each factor made it possible to identify which factors are driving the disease dynamics in each region, thus showing that it is a valuable tool with which to focus efforts towards achieving the OTF status.

Bayesian hierarchical modeling of joint spatiotemporal risk patterns for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Tuberculosis (TB) in Kenya

The simultaneous spatiotemporal modeling of multiple related diseases strengthens inferences by borrowing information between related diseases. Numerous research contributions to spatiotemporal modeling approaches exhibit their strengths differently with increasing complexity. However, contributions that combine spatiotemporal approaches to modeling of multiple diseases simultaneously are not so common. We present a full Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal approach to the joint modeling of Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Tuberculosis incidences in Kenya. Using case notification data for the period 2012–2017, we estimated the model parameters and determined the joint spatial patterns and temporal variations. Our model included specific and shared spatial and temporal effects. The specific random effects allowed for departures from the shared patterns for the different diseases. The space-time interaction term characterized the underlying spatial patterns with every temporal fluctuation. We assumed the shared random effects to be the structured effects and the disease-specific random effects to be unstructured effects. We detected the spatial similarity in the distribution of Tuberculosis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus in approximately 29 counties around the western, central and southern regions of Kenya. The distribution of the shared relative risks had minimal difference with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus disease-specific relative risk whereas that of Tuberculosis presented many more counties as high-risk areas. The flexibility and informative outputs of Bayesian Hierarchical Models enabled us to identify the similarities and differences in the distribution of the relative risks associated with each disease. Estimating the Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Tuberculosis shared relative risks provide additional insights towards collaborative monitoring of the diseases and control efforts.

Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Badger (Meles meles) Spatial Ecology in a Hot-Spot Area in Atlantic Spain

We provide a temporal overview (from 2012 to 2018) of the outcomes of tuberculosis (TB) in the cattle and badger populations in a hot-spot in Asturias (Atlantic Spain). We also study the badger’s spatial ecology from an epidemiological perspective in order to describe hazardous behavior in relation to TB transmission between cattle and badgers. Culture and single intradermal tuberculin test (SITT) were available for cattle as part of the National Program for the Eradication of TB. A field survey was also carried out in order to determine the paddocks and buildings used by each farm, and the information obtained was stored by using geographic information systems. Moreover, eighty-three badgers were submitted for necropsy and subsequent bacteriological studies. Ten badgers were also tracked, using global positioning system (GPS) collars. The prevalence of TB in cattle herds in the hot-spot increased from 2.2% in 2012 to 20% in 2016; it then declined to 0.0% in 2018. In contrast, the TB prevalence in badgers increased notably (from 5.55% in 2012–2015 to 10.64% in 2016–2018). Both cattle and badgers shared the same strain of Mycobacterium bovis. The collared badgers preferred paddocks used by TB-positive herds in spring and summer (when they were more active). The males occupied larger home ranges than the females (Khr95: males 149.78 ± 25.84 ha and females 73.37 ± 22.91 ha; Kcr50: males 29.83 ± 5.69 ha and females 13.59 ± 5.00 ha), and the home ranges were smaller in autumn and winter than in summer. The averages of the index of daily and maximum distances traveled by badgers were 1.88 ± (SD) 1.20 km and 1.99 ± 0.71 km, respectively. One of them presented a dispersive behavior with a maximum range of 18.3 km. The most preferred habitat was apple orchards in all seasons, with the exception of winter, in which they preferred pastures. Land uses and landscape structure, which have been linked with certain livestock-management practices, provide a scenario of great potential for badger–cattle interactions, thus enhancing the importance of the badgers’ ecology, which could potentially transmit TB back to cattle in the future.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the surveillance system for tuberculosis in cattle in Spain

In Spain, the eradication of tuberculosis (TB) in cattle has had some setbacks and therefore we need to re-evaluate the current surveillance strategies. The Spanish cattle TB surveillance system consists of three components: a) routine skin testing, b) slaughterhouse surveillance, and c) pre-movement controls. Our objectives were to assess the effectiveness of the whole surveillance system and evaluate the relative contribution of each of those components, both at national and at the province level. The effectiveness was estimated based on both the sensitivity of detection per year and the time until detection. Moreover, we evaluated the impact of different factors on that effectiveness. We used a stochastic model that simulated the spread of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-complex (MTC) infection within cattle herds that was modified to incorporate the three components of TB surveillance. Input data, at the province level, on cattle movements off-farm or the frequency of the routine screening were provided by the Spanish Ministry for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. Under the current conditions, 96.1% of Spanish herds were detected within one year after their infection (i.e. mean sensitivity of TB surveillance), although that detection took on average 178 days. The surveillance system effectiveness was highly dependent on the routine skin testing, responsible for the detection of almost 90% of the infected herds, while slaughterhouse surveillance and pre-movement controls contributed only to the identification of a small proportion of infected herds. We observed substantial differences in the effectiveness of the surveillance components among Spanish provinces, although in general, the sensitivities were high. The most influential factor on the efficiency of TB detection in Spain was, by far, the frequency of routine controls, followed by the sensitivity of the test used. In a context of reduced funding for cattle TB eradication, the frequency of testing should be adapted based on risk-based surveillance strategies, i.e. efforts should focus on herds more likely to be infected, but also in herds more likely to infect other herds. While slaughterhouse surveillance seems a cost-effective strategy, the use of pre-movement testing at least in areas of low incidence should be further evaluated.

Spatio-temporal trends in the frequency of interspecific interactions between domestic and wild ungulates from Mediterranean Spain

Controlling infections shared by wildlife and livestock requires the understanding and quantification of interspecific interactions between the species involved. This is particularly important in extensive multi-host systems, in which controlled domestic animals interact with uncontrolled, abundant and expanding wild species, such as wild ungulates. We have, therefore, quantified the interspecific interactions between wild boar (Sus scrofa) and free-ranging cattle in Mediterranean Spain, along with their spatio-temporal variability. GPS-GSM-collars were used to monitor 12 cows and 14 wild boar in the Doñana National Park between 2011 and 2013. Interactions were defined as encounters between cattle and wild boar within a spatio-temporal window of 52 m and 1 hour. On average, each wild boar interacted with one cow 1.5 ± (SE) 0.5 times per day, while each cow interacted with one wild boar 1.3 ± 0.4 times per day. The frequency of interaction was significantly higher during crepuscular hours owing to the overlap of both species’ activity, and also during spring and autumn, probably owing to a higher individual aggregation around shared resources. Finally, the frequency of interaction was higher near the most significant shared resources (e.g. water points) but was lower in areas with dense vegetation. The results presented here show the usefulness of GPS monitoring as regards quantifying interactions and helping to clarify the process of pathogen transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface in Mediterranean Spain, along with the main spatio-temporal risk factors. In a changing scenario in which European populations of wild ungulates are increasing, more efficient measures with which to control interactions are required to meet the demands of farmers and managers. Our results, therefore, provide directional hypotheses that could be used to design disease control programmes.

Farmer and Veterinarian Attitudes towards the Bovine Tuberculosis Eradication Programme in Spain: What Is Going on in the Field?

The effectiveness of health interventions against bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is influenced by several "non-biological" factors that may hamper bTB detection and control. Although the engagement of stakeholders is a key factor for the eradication programme's success, social factors have been often ignored in the control programmes of animal diseases, especially in developed countries. In this study, we used a qualitative approach to investigate perceptions, opinions, attitudes, and beliefs of farmers, and veterinarians who may influence the effectiveness of the Spanish bTB eradication programme. The study was carried out in two phases. First, 13 key representatives of different groups involved in the programme were interviewed through exploratory interviews to identify most relevant themes circulating in the population. Interviews focused on strong and weak points of the programme; reasons for failure to achieve eradication; benefits of being disease free; future perspectives, and proposed changes to the programme. Based on these results, a thematic guide was developed and detailed information was gained through face-to-face in-depth interviews conducted on a purposive sample of 39 farmers and veterinarians. Data were analysed following an ethnographic methodology. Main results suggested that the bTB programme is perceived as a law enforcement duty without an adequate motivation of some stakeholders and a general feeling of distrust arose. The complexity of bTB epidemiology combined with gaps in knowledge and weak communication throughout stakeholders contributed to causing disbeliefs, which in turn generated different kinds of guesses and interpretations. Low reliability in the routine skin test for bTB screening was expressed and the level of confidence on test results interpretation was linked with skills and experience of public and private veterinarians in the field. Lack of training for farmers and pressure faced by veterinarians during field activities also emerged. Few benefits of being bTB free were perceived and comparative grievances referred to wildlife and other domestic reservoirs, sector-specific legislation for bullfighting farms, and the absence of specific health legislation for game hunting farms were reported. Understanding reasons for demotivation and scepticism may help institutions to ensure stakeholders' collaboration and increase the acceptability of control measures leading to an earlier achievement of eradication.

Serological Follow-up of Tuberculosis in a Wild Boar Population in Contact with Infected Cattle

There is an increasing concern in several European countries over the role that tuberculosis (TB)-infected wild boar may play in the progress of bovine TB eradication campaigns. In 2004, as a consequence of the detection of a TB focus in wild boar from a National Game Reserve (NGR) located in southern Catalonia, a surveillance programme based on post-mortem inspection for detection of macroscopic TB-like lesions (TBLL) was initiated in the affected area. The source of infection for wild boar was linked to a tuberculous cattle herd located in the same area. Besides, the results of the surveillance programme in wild boar were used for the validation of an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) specific for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) IgG antibodies. Using this ELISA, a seven-year serological study of MTBC in wild boar from the NGR was conducted in 173 animals (93 adults, 44 juveniles-yearlings and 36 piglets) culled between 2004 and 2010. ELISA results and presence of TBLL showed excellent agreement for adult and juvenile wild boar (Kappa index = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.76-0.95). Of the thirty-eight adults, yearlings and juveniles classified as positives by the ELISA, 34 (89%) showed TBLL at necropsy. In contrast, none of the ELISA-positive wild boar piglets (n = 20) showed TBLL, suggesting the detection of early antibody responses to the infection. Overall, this study contributes to the knowledge of wild boar humoral responses to MTBC. The results also highlight the usefulness of this serological test for wild boar TB surveillance.