Establishment of a nomogram prediction model for long diameter 10-15 mm gallbladder polyps with malignant tendency

Development and Validation of a Preoperative Prediction Model for Neoplastic Gallbladder Polyps

Aims/Background The primary goal in evaluating gallbladder polypoid lesions (GPLs) is to identify neoplastic polyps (NP). Numerous studies have investigated risk factors for NP. This study aimed to develop a practical preoperative prediction model for NP using simple and easily accessible clinical variables. Methods We retrospectively analyzed clinical data from patients with GPLs who underwent cholecystectomy at Lanzhou University Second Hospital between January 2018 and September 2022. A total of 621 cases were included and randomly assigned into a training set (70%) and an internal validation set (30%). An external validation set was established using data from 117 patients treated at other centers between January and December 2023. Univariate logistic analyses were performed, followed by backward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis for variables with p< 0.2 to identify significant variables associated with NP. These predictors were included in the final logistic regression model and visualized as a nomogram model. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were evaluated. Results Age (odd ratio (OR) = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.03-1.09, p= 0.0001), polyp size (OR = 19.01, 95% CI = 6.48-55.79, p < 0.0001), polyp number (OR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.12-0.56, p = 0.0006), gallbladder wall thickness (OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.02-2.41, p= 0.0385), and polyp echo characteristics (OR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.19-0.85, p = 0.0169) were identified as independent influencing factors for NP. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram model in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets were 0.886 (95% CI, 0.841-0.930), 0.836 (95% CI, 0.753-0.919), and 0.867 (95% CI, 0.743-0.978), respectively. Calibration curves for the three datasets showed Brier scores of 0.079, 0.092, and 0.070, all below 0.25, indicating good calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) analysis suggested that a threshold probability of 0.6 provided the most significant clinical benefit. Conclusion This prediction model, incorporating easily accessible variables, demonstrated excellent performance in the identification of NP and contributed to clinical decision-making in GPL management.

Establishing a radiomics model using contrast-enhanced ultrasound for preoperative prediction of neoplastic gallbladder polyps exceeding 10 mm

BACKGROUND

A key challenge in the medical field is managing gallbladder polyps (GBP) > 10 mm, especially when their nature is uncertain. GBP with a diameter exceeding 10 mm are associated with an increased risk of gallbladder cancer, making the key to their management the differentiation between benign and malignant types. The current practice, due to the inability to predict accurately, leads to excessive surgeries and ineffective follow-ups, increasing patient risks and medical burdens.

PURPOSE

This study aims to establish an imaging radiomics model using clinical data and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) to predict neoplastic GBP exceeding 10 mm in diameter preoperatively.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from 119 patients with GBP > 10 mm of unknown origin were analyzed. A total of 1197 features were extracted from the GBP area using conventional ultrasound (US) and CEUS. Significant features were identified using the Mann-Whitney U test and further refined with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model to construct radiomic features. By integrating clinical characteristics, a radiomics nomogram was developed. The diagnostic efficacy of the preoperative logistic regression (LR) model was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. CEUS is an examination based on conventional ultrasound, and conventional two-dimensional ultrasound still poses significant challenges in differential diagnosis. CEUS has a high accuracy rate in diagnosing the benign or malignant nature of gallbladder space-occupying lesions, which can significantly reduce the preoperative waiting time for related examinations and provide more reliable diagnostic information for clinical practice.

RESULTS

Feature selection via Lasso led to a final LR model incorporating high-density lipoprotein, smoking status, basal width, and Rad_Signature. This model, derived from machine learning frameworks including Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) with fivefold cross-validation, showed AUCs of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.90-0.99) and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.72-1.0) in internal validation. The model exhibited excellent calibration, confirmed by calibration graphs and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.551 and 0.544).

CONCLUSION

The LR model accurately predicts neoplastic GBP > 10 mm preoperatively. Radiomics with CEUS is a powerful tool for analysis of GBP > 10 mm. The model not only improves diagnostic accuracy and reduces healthcare costs but also optimizes patient management through personalized treatment plans, enhancing clinical outcomes and ensuring resources are more precisely allocated to patients who need surgery.

Interpretation, Reporting, Imaging-Based Workups, and Surveillance of Incidentally Detected Gallbladder Polyps and Gallbladder Wall Thickening: 2025 Recommendations From the Korean Society of Abdominal Radiology

Incidentally detected gallbladder polyps (GBPs) and gallbladder wall thickening (GBWT) are frequently encountered in clinical practice. However, characterizing GBPs and GBWT in asymptomatic patients can be challenging and may result in overtreatment, including unnecessary follow-ups or surgeries. The Korean Society of Abdominal Radiology (KSAR) Clinical Practice Guideline Committee has developed expert recommendations that focus on standardized imaging interpretation and follow-up strategies for both GBPs and GBWT, with support from the Korean Society of Radiology and KSAR. These guidelines, which address 24 key questions, aim to standardize the approach for the interpretation of imaging findings, reporting, imaging-based workups, and surveillance of incidentally detected GBPs and GBWT. This recommendation promotes evidence-based practice, facilitates communication between radiologists and referring physicians, and reduces unnecessary interventions.

Establishing a preoperative predictive model for gallbladder adenoma and cholesterol polyps based on machine learning: a multicentre retrospective study

BACKGROUND

With the rising diagnostic rate of gallbladder polypoid lesions (GPLs), differentiating benign cholesterol polyps from gallbladder adenomas with a higher preoperative malignancy risk is crucial. This study aimed to establish a preoperative prediction model capable of accurately distinguishing between gallbladder adenomas and cholesterol polyps using machine learning algorithms.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analysed the patients' clinical baseline data, serological indicators, and ultrasound imaging data. Using 12 machine learning algorithms, 110 combination predictive models were constructed. The models were evaluated using internal and external cohort validation, receiver operating characteristic curves, area under the curve (AUC) values, calibration curves, and clinical decision curves to determine the best predictive model.

RESULTS

Among the 110 combination predictive models, the Support Vector Machine + Random Forest (SVM + RF) model demonstrated the highest AUC values of 0.972 and 0.922 in the training and internal validation sets, respectively, indicating an optimal predictive performance. The model-selected features included gallbladder wall thickness, polyp size, polyp echo, and pedicle. Evaluation through external cohort validation, calibration curves, and clinical decision curves further confirmed its excellent predictive ability for distinguishing gallbladder adenomas from cholesterol polyps. Additionally, this study identified age, adenosine deaminase level, and metabolic syndrome as potential predictive factors for gallbladder adenomas.

CONCLUSION

This study employed the machine learning combination algorithms and preoperative ultrasound imaging data to construct an SVM + RF predictive model, enabling effective preoperative differentiation of gallbladder adenomas and cholesterol polyps. These findings will assist clinicians in accurately assessing the risk of GPLs and providing personalised treatment strategies.

Protocol to develop a chemotherapy drug screening process by constructing a cancer prognostic model using public databases

Drug resistance is currently the biggest challenge in cancer chemotherapy. Here, we present a protocol to develop a chemotherapy drug screening process by constructing a cancer prognostic model (PM) using public databases. We describe steps for downloading code and data, preparing the expression matrix and metadata for analysis, screening modeling genes, and constructing a PM. We then detail procedures for constructing predictive websites for cancer patients' survival based on their age, tumor stage, gene expression levels, and risk scores. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Bai et al.1.

Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy for Gallbladder Polyps: Is It Overtreatment?

BACKGROUND

The gallbladder polyp (GP) is an accepted risk factor of gallbladder cancer and an indication for laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC). Generally, the pathologic result of GPs is benign, but it is difficult to distinguish a potential malignancy or a stone without pathological evaluation. This study compared the indication and pathologic result of cholecystectomy performed due to GP in our clinic.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study employed retrospective data analysis. Patients who underwent LC from August 2021 through August 2024 were included in the study. Demographic features, operation status, indications for surgery, hospital stay, concomitant surgery, pathologic outcomes, and complications were recorded from patients' data. Polyp sizes and number of polyps were taken from ultrasonography (USG) data.

RESULTS

A total of 533 patients were included in the study. The mean age was 44.31 ± 12.14, and 64.35% (n = 343) were of female gender. Twenty patients (3.75%) underwent surgery for GP. The mean polyp size was 7.47 mm (2-15); 65% of the patients (n = 13) had multiple polyps, and 35% (n = 7) had a single polyp. The mean hospital stay was 1.59 ± 0.88 days. The pathologic result of GP was pseudopolyp in 55% (n = 11) of cases and non-polyp in 45% (n = 9). One patient (0.18%) who underwent an operation for gallstone had a malignancy. The sensitivity of USG in detecting polyps was found to be 64.7%. The complication rate was 1.5% (n = 8).

CONCLUSION

The pathological result of many patients who undergo cholecystectomy due to GPs is pseudopolyp or adenoma. In our study, no carcinoma was observed in any patient who underwent surgery for polyps. Further studies are needed to determine the indication for surgery due to GP.

Current considerations for the surgical management of gallbladder adenomas

Gallbladder adenomas are rare lesions (0.5%) associated with potential malignant transformation, particularly with gallbladder adenomas that are ≥ 1 cm in size. Early detection and management are crucial for preventing lethal carcinoma development. These polyps can often be distinguished from the more often nonneoplastic cholesterol pseudopolyps (5%-10%), which are benign. Ultrasonography is the first-line tool for initial diagnosis and follow-up when indicated. The question is whether cholecystectomy is always necessary for all adenomas. The management of gallbladder adenomas is determined according to the size of the tumor, the growth rate of the tumor, the patient's symptoms and whether risk factors for malignancy are present. Adenomas ≥ 1 cm in size, an age > 50 years and a familial history of gallbladder carcinoma are indications for immediate laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Otherwise, ultrasound follow-up is indicated. For adenomas 6-9 mm in size, the absence of ≥ 2 mm growth at 6 months, one year, and two years, as well as an adenoma sized < 5 mm without existing risk factors indicates that no further surveillance is required. However, it would be preferable to individualize the management in doubtful cases. Novel interventional modalities for preserving the gallbladder need further evaluation, especially to determine the long-term outcomes.

Prediction of neoplastic gallbladder polyps in patients with different age level based on preoperative ultrasound: a multi-center retrospective real-world study

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of neoplastic polyps in gallbladder polyps (GPs) increases sharply with age and is associated with gallbladder carcinoma (GBC). This study aims to predict neoplastic polyps and provide appropriate treatment strategies based on preoperative ultrasound features in patients with different age level.

METHODS

According to the age classification of WHO, 1523 patients with GPs who underwent cholecystectomy from January 2015 to December 2019 at 11 tertiary hospitals in China were divided into young adults group (n=622), middle-aged group (n=665) and elderly group (n=236). Linear scoring models were established based on independent risk variables screened by the Logistic regression model in different age groups. The area under ROC (AUC) to evaluate the predictive ability of linear scoring models, long- and short- diameter of GPs.

RESULTS

Independent risk factors for neoplastic polyps included the number of polyps, polyp size (long diameter), and fundus in the young adults and elderly groups, while the number of polyps, polyp size (long diameter), and polyp size (short diameter) in the middle-aged groups. In different age groups, the AUCs of its linear scoring model were higher than the AUCs of the long- and short- diameter of GPs for differentiating neoplastic and non-neoplastic polyps (all P<0.05), and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that the prediction accuracy of the linear scoring models was higher than the long- and short- diameter of GPs (all P>0.05).

CONCLUSION

The linear scoring models of the young adults, middle-aged and elderly groups can effectively distinguish neoplastic polyps from non-neoplastic polyps based on preoperative ultrasound features.

Advances in the management of gallbladder polyps: establishment of predictive models and the rise of gallbladder-preserving polypectomy procedures

Gallbladder polyps are a common biliary tract disease whose treatment options have yet to be fully established. The indication of "polyps ≥ 10 mm in diameter" for cholecystectomy increases the possibility of gallbladder excision due to benign polyps. Compared to enumeration of risk factors in clinical guidelines, predictive models based on statistical methods and artificial intelligence provide a more intuitive representation of the malignancy degree of gallbladder polyps. Minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving polypectomy procedures, as a combination of checking and therapeutic approaches that allow for eradication of lesions and preservation of a functional gallbladder at the same time, have been shown to maximize the benefits to patients with benign polyps. Despite the reported good outcomes of predictive models and gallbladder-preserving polypectomy procedures, the studies were associated with various limitations, including small sample sizes, insufficient data types, and unknown long-term efficacy, thereby enhancing the need for multicenter and large-scale clinical studies. In conclusion, the emergence of predictive models and minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving polypectomy procedures has signaled an ever increasing attention to the role of the gallbladder and clinical management of gallbladder polyps.

Value of Micro Flow Imaging in the Prediction of Adenomatous Polyps

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess the value of micro flow imaging (MFI) in distinguishing adenomatous polyps from cholesterol polyps.

METHODS

A total of 143 patients who underwent cholecystectomy for gallbladder polyps were retrospectively analyzed. B-mode ultrasound (BUS), color Doppler flow imaging (CDFI), MFI and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) were performed before cholecystectomy. The weighted kappa consistency test was used to evaluate the agreement of vascular morphology among CDFI, MFI and CEUS. Ultrasound image characteristics, including BUS, CDFI and MFI images, were compared between adenomatous polyps and cholesterol polyps. The independent risk factors for adenomatous polyps were selected. The diagnostic performance of MFI combined with BUS in determining adenomatous polyps was compared with CDFI combined with BUS.

RESULTS

Of the 143 patients, 113 cases were cholesterol polyps, and 30 cases were adenomatous polyps. The vascular morphology of gallbladder polyps was more clearly depicted by MFI than CDFI, and it had better agreement with CEUS. Differences in maximum size, height/width ratio, hyperechoic spot and vascular intensity on CDFI and MFI images were significant between adenomatous polyps and cholesterol polyps (p < 0.05). The maximum size, height/width ratio, and vascular intensity on MFI images were independent risk factors for adenomatous polyps. For MFI combined with BUS, sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 90.00%, 94.69% and 93.70%, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of MFI combined with BUS was significantly higher than that of CDFI combined with BUS (AUC = 0.923 vs. 0.784).

CONCLUSION

Compared with CDFI combined with BUS, MFI combined with BUS had higher diagnostic performance in determining adenomatous polyps.

A Bayesian network model to predict neoplastic risk for patients with gallbladder polyps larger than 10 mm based on preoperative ultrasound features

BACKGROUND

Polyp size of 10 mm is insufficient to discriminate neoplastic and non-neoplastic risk in patients with gallbladder polyps (GPs). The aim of the study is to develop a Bayesian network (BN) prediction model to identify neoplastic polyps and create more precise criteria for surgical indications in patients with GPs lager than 10 mm based on preoperative ultrasound features.

METHODS

A BN prediction model was established and validated based on the independent risk variables using data from 759 patients with GPs who underwent cholecystectomy from January 2015 to August 2022 at 11 tertiary hospitals in China. The area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the predictive ability of the BN model and current guidelines, and Delong test was used to compare the AUCs.

RESULTS

The mean values of polyp cross-sectional area (CSA), long, and short diameter of neoplastic polyps were higher than those of non-neoplastic polyps (P < 0.0001). Independent neoplastic risk factors for GPs included single polyp, polyp CSA ≥ 85 mm ², fundus with broad base, and medium echogenicity. The accuracy of the BN model established based on the above independent variables was 81.88% and 82.35% in the training and testing sets, respectively. Delong test also showed that the AUCs of the BN model was better than that of JSHBPS, ESGAR, US-reported, and CCBS in training and testing sets, respectively (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

A Bayesian network model was accurate and practical for predicting neoplastic risk in patients with gallbladder polyps larger than 10 mm based on preoperative ultrasound features.

A Bayesian network prediction model for gallbladder polyps with malignant potential based on preoperative ultrasound

BACKGROUND

It is important to identify gallbladder polyps (GPs) with malignant potential and avoid unnecessary cholecystectomy by constructing prediction model. The aim of the study is to develop a Bayesian network (BN) prediction model for GPs with malignant potential in a long diameter of 8-15 mm based on preoperative ultrasound.

METHODS

The independent risk factors for GPs with malignant potential were screened by χ² test and Logistic regression model. Prediction model was established and validated using data from 1296 patients with GPs who underwent cholecystectomy from January 2015 to December 2019 at 11 tertiary hospitals in China. A BN model was established based on the independent risk variables.

RESULTS

Independent risk factors for GPs with malignant potential included age, number of polyps, polyp size (long diameter), polyp size (short diameter), and fundus. The BN prediction model identified relationships between polyp size (long diameter) and three other variables [polyp size (short diameter), fundus and number of polyps]. Each variable was assigned scores under different status and the probabilities of GPs with malignant potential were classified as [0-0.2), [0.2-0.5), [0.5-0.8) and [0.8-1] according to the total points of [- 337, - 234], [- 197, - 145], [- 123, - 108], and [- 62,500], respectively. The AUC was 77.38% and 75.13%, and the model accuracy was 75.58% and 80.47% for the BN model in the training set and testing set, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A BN prediction model was accurate and practical for predicting GPs with malignant potential patients in a long diameter of 8-15 mm undergoing cholecystectomy based on preoperative ultrasound.

The increasing incidence and high body mass index-related burden of gallbladder and biliary diseases-A results from global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Gallbladder and biliary diseases are common gastrointestinal conditions associated with huge socioeconomic costs and are considered risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and digestive system cancers. The prevalence and incidence of gallbladder and biliary diseases have not received enough attention from 1990 to 2019. Several non-communicable diseases were associated with the incidence of gallbladder and biliary diseases. It is necessary to clarify the change in the incidence and disability burden of gallbladder and biliary diseases worldwide.

METHODS

Data on high body mass index (BMI)-related disease burden and incidence, years of life lost prematurely, and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to gallbladder and biliary diseases were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The estimated annual percentage change was calculated to qualify the gallbladder and biliary disease burden change.

RESULTS

The global age-standardized incidence rate has increased from 585.35 per 100,000 (95% UI: 506.05-679.86) in 1990 to 634.32 per 100,000 (95% UI: 540.21-742.93) in 2019. And the increase in incidence was positively correlated with rising high BMI-related summary exposure value. The high BMI-related YLDs of gallbladder and biliary diseases have increased worldwide over time. Globally, the 25-49 age group suffered a rapid rise in incidence and high BMI attributable to the YLDs rate of gallbladder and biliary diseases.

CONCLUSION

The global incidence and high BMI-related YLDs of gallbladder and biliary diseases remain prominent to increase over the past 30 years. Notably, the incidence and high BMI-related YLDs among people aged 25-49 years have rapidly increased over time. Therefore, high BMI should be emphasized in strategic priorities for controlling gallbladder and biliary diseases.

Incidental Findings of Gallbladder and Bile Ducts-Management Strategies: General Aspects, Gallbladder Polyps and Gallbladder Wall Thickening-A World Federation of Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology (WFUMB) Position Paper

The World Federation of Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology (WFUMB) is addressing the issue of incidental findings with a series of position papers to give advice on characterization and management. The biliary system (gallbladder and biliary tree) is the third most frequent site for incidental findings. This first part of the position paper on incidental findings of the biliary system is related to general aspects, gallbladder polyps and other incidental findings of the gallbladder wall. Available evidence on prevalence, diagnostic work-up, malignancy risk, follow-up and treatment is summarized with a special focus on ultrasound techniques. Multiparametric ultrasound features of gallbladder polyps and other incidentally detected gallbladder wall pathologies are described, and their inclusion in assessment of malignancy risk and decision- making on further management is suggested.