Impact of tumor burden score on timing and patterns of recurrence after curative-intent resection of hepatocellular carcinoma

Model of End-Stage Liver Disease-alpha-fetoprotein-tumor burden (MELD-AFP-TBS) score to stratify prognosis after liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Morphologic criteria, such as the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system often fail to accurately predict long-term survival among patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma. We sought to develop a continuous risk score that incorporates established markers of tumor biology and liver function to improve the prediction of overall survival.

METHODS

Data from a multi-institutional database were used to identify patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma. A predictive score for overall survival was developed using weighted beta-coefficients from a multivariable Cox regression model.

RESULTS

Among 850 patients, 595 (70.0%) were assigned to the training cohort, and 255 (30.0%) to the test cohort. In the training cohort, multivariable analysis identified the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.07), log-transformed alpha-fetoprotein (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.13), and tumor burden score (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.11) as independent predictors of worse overall survival. The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease-alpha-fetoprotein-tumor burden score, based on the Cox model, stratified patients into low-risk (n = 466, 78.3%) with a 5-year OS of 70.5% and high-risk (n = 129, 21.7%) with a 5-year OS of 47.0% (P < .001). In the test cohort, the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease-alpha-fetoprotein-tumor burden score demonstrated superior discriminative accuracy (C-index: 0.72, time-dependent area under the curve 1-year: 0.80, 3-year 0.76, 5-year 0.70) compared with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system (C-index: 0.53, time-dependent area under the curve 1-year: 0.61, 3-year 0.55, 5-year 0.56). An online tool was made accessible at https://jk-osu.shinyapps.io/MELD_AFP_TBS/.

CONCLUSION

The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease-alpha-fetoprotein-tumor burden score provides a novel, accurate tool for prognostic stratification of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, identifying high-risk patients who may benefit from alternative treatments to improve outcomes.

A preoperative model to predict overall survival in patients with hepatoma undergoing resection

BACKGROUND

We aimed to develop a preoperative model to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatoma undergoing liver resection (LR).

METHODS

Patients who underwent LR for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0, A, or B hepatoma were enrolled. Tumor burden score (TBS) scores were determined using the following equation: TBS (Pinna et al., 2018) 2 = (largest tumor size [in cm])(Pinna et al., 2018) 2 ​+ ​(tumor number) (Pinna et al., 2018) 22. The cutoff values for radiographic TBS were based on our recently published paper: low, <2.6; medium, 2.6-7.9; high, >7.9.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that radiographic TBS (low: referent; medium: HR ​= ​2.89; 95 ​% CI: 1.60-5.21; p ​< ​0.001; high, HR ​= ​7.60; 95 ​% CI: 3.80-15.2; p ​< ​0.001), AFP (<400 ​ng/mL: referent; ≧400 ​ng/mL: HR ​= ​1.67, 95 ​% CI: 1.11-2.52, p ​= ​0.014), and cirrhosis (absence: referent; presence: HR ​= ​1.88, 95 ​% CI: 1.30-2.72, p ​< ​0.001) were associated with OS. A simplified risk score was superior to BCLC system in concordance index (0.688 vs. 0.623).

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a preoperative model that performs better in predicting OS than the BCLC system.

The impact of tumor burden score on prognosis in patients after radical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: a single-center retrospective study

Purpose

This study examines the relationship between tumor burden score (TBS) and survival and recurrence following radical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma through a cohort study conducted in the Guangxi population of China.

Methods

This cohort study eventually recruited 576 HCC patients undergoing radical resection of HCC in the People's Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region during 2013-2022. After determining the best threshold TBS, all cases were grouped to evaluate the relationship between TBS versus overall survival (OS) and cumulative recurrence. Using X-Tile software, the best threshold TBS to judge patient prognostic outcome following radical resection of HCC was 10.77.

Results

Kaplan-Meier curve analysis revealed that patients with high TBS showed considerably decreased OS relative to the control group, accompanied by an increased recurrence rate. According to multivariate Cox proportional regression, the patients with high TBS were associated with poorer OS (HR = 2.56, 95% CI 1.64-3.99, P < 0.001) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) (HR = 1.55, 95% CI 1.02-2.35, P < 0.001).

Conclusion

In patients undergoing radical resection for HCC, higher TBS was significantly related to shorter OS and RFS.

High tumor burden score indicated the unfavorable prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Tumor burden score (TBS) based on maximum tumor diameter and number has been shown to correlate with prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nevertheless, the results are conflicting. Hence, we conducted a meta-analysis to analyze the association between TBS and survival outcomes of HCC patients.

METHODS

A comprehensively search of the databases including PubMed, Embase and Web of Science was performed to retrieve studies satisfying the inclusion criteria until August 31, 2023. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. All the data analyses were carried out by STATA 12.0.

RESULTS

10 retrospective studies containing 25073 patients were incorporated in the study. The results demonstrated that high TBS was markedly association with poor overall survival (OS) (HR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.45-2.23) and relapse-free survival / progression-free survival(RFS/PFS) (HR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.42-2.07). Subgroup analysis showed that the prognostic value of TBS in HCC was not affected by any subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

TBS may be an efficient prognostic index in HCC patients.

Tumour burden score combined with albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio predicts prognosis in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

Tumour morphology (tumour burden score (TBS)) and liver function (albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR)) have been shown to correlate with outcomes in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). This study aimed to evaluate the combined predictive effect of TBS and AAPR on survival outcomes in ICC patients. We conducted a retrospective analysis using a multicentre database of ICC patients who underwent curative surgery from 2011 to 2018. The Kaplan-Meier method was employed to examine the relationship between a new index (combining TBS and AAPR) and long-term outcomes. The predictive efficacy of this index was compared to other conventional indicators. A total of 560 patients were included in the study. Based on TBS and AAPR stratification, patients were classified into three groups. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that 124 patients with low TBS and high AAPR had the best overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS), while 170 patients with high TBS and low AAPR had the worst outcomes (log-rank p < 0.001). Multivariate analyses identified the combined index as an independent predictor of OS and RFS. Furthermore, the index showed superior accuracy in predicting OS and RFS compared to other conventional indicators. Collectively, this study demonstrated that the combination of liver function and tumour morphology provides a synergistic effect in evaluating the prognosis of ICC patients. The novel index combining TBS and AAPR effectively stratified postoperative survival outcomes in ICC patients undergoing curative resection.

Surgical treatment improves overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma with extrahepatic metastases after conversion therapy: a multicenter retrospective study

Systemic therapy is typically the primary treatment choice for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with extrahepatic metastases. Some patients may achieve partial response (PR) or complete response (CR) with systemic treatment, leading to the possibility of their primary tumor becoming resectable. This study aimed to investigate whether these patients could achieve longer survival through surgical resection of their primary tumor. We retrospectively collected data from 150 HCC patients with extrahepatic metastases treated at 15 different centers from January 1st, 2015, to November 30th, 2022. We evaluated their overall survival (OS) and progress-free survival (PFS) and analyzed risk factors impacting both OS and PFS were analyzed. Patients who received surgical treatment had longer OS compared to those who did not (median OS 16.5 months vs. 11.3 months). However, there was no significant difference in progression-free survival between the two groups. Portal vein invasion (P = 0.025) was identified as a risk factor for poor prognosis in patients, while effective first-line treatment (P = 0.039) and surgical treatment (P = 0.005) were protective factors. No factors showed statistical significance in the analysis of PFS. Effective first-line treatment (P = 0.027) and surgical treatment (P = 0.006) were both independent protective factors for prolonging patient prognosis, while portal vein invasion was an independent risk factor (P = 0.044). HCC patients with extrahepatic metastases who achieve PR/CR with conversion therapy may experience longer OS through surgical treatment. This study is the first to analyze the clinical outcomes of patients receiving surgical treatment for HCC with extrahepatic metastases.

Optimal policy tree to assist in adjuvant therapy decision-making after resection of colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

Although systemic postoperative therapy after surgery for colorectal liver metastases is generally recommended, the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy has been debated. We used machine learning to develop a decision tree and define which patients may benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy after hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for colorectal liver metastases between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. An optimal policy tree analysis was used to determine the optimal assignment of the adjuvant chemotherapy to subgroups of patients for overall survival and recurrence-free survival.

RESULTS

Among 1,358 patients who underwent curative-intent resection of colorectal liver metastases, 1,032 (76.0%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. After a median follow-up of 28.7 months (interquartile range 13.7-52.0), 5-year overall survival was 67.5%, and 3-year recurrence-free survival was 52.6%, respectively. Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with better recurrence-free survival (3-year recurrence-free survival: adjuvant chemotherapy, 54.4% vs no adjuvant chemotherapy, 46.8%; P < .001) but no overall survival significant improvement (5-year overall survival: adjuvant chemotherapy, 68.1% vs no adjuvant chemotherapy, 65.7%; P = .15). Patients were randomly allocated into 2 cohorts (training data set, n = 679, testing data set, n = 679). The random forest model demonstrated good performance in predicting counterfactual probabilities of death and recurrence relative to receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy. According to the optimal policy tree, patient demographics, secondary tumor characteristics, and primary tumor characteristics defined the subpopulation that would benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

CONCLUSION

A novel artificial intelligence methodology based on patient, primary tumor, and treatment characteristics may help clinicians tailor adjuvant chemotherapy recommendations after colorectal liver metastases resection.

A Prognostic Model To Predict Survival After Recurrence Among Patients With Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

We sought to develop and validate a preoperative model to predict survival after recurrence (SAR) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

BACKGROUND

Although HCC is characterized by recurrence as high as 60%, models to predict outcomes after recurrence remain relatively unexplored.

METHODS

Patients who developed recurrent HCC between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Clinicopathologic data on primary disease and laboratory and radiologic imaging data on recurrent disease were collected. Multivariable Cox regression analysis and internal bootstrap validation (5000 repetitions) were used to develop and validate the SARScore. Optimal Survival Tree analysis was used to characterize SAR among patients treated with various treatment modalities.

RESULTS

Among 497 patients who developed recurrent HCC, median SAR was 41.2 months (95% CI 38.1-52.0). The presence of cirrhosis, number of primary tumors, primary macrovascular invasion, primary R1 resection margin, AFP>400 ng/mL on the diagnosis of recurrent disease, radiologic extrahepatic recurrence, radiologic size and number of recurrent lesions, radiologic recurrent bilobar disease, and early recurrence (≤24 months) were included in the model. The SARScore successfully stratified 1-, 3- and 5-year SAR and demonstrated strong discriminatory ability (3-year AUC: 0.75, 95% CI 0.70-0.79). While a subset of patients benefitted from resection/ablation, Optimal Survival Tree analysis revealed that patients with high SARScore disease had the worst outcomes (5-year AUC; training: 0.79 vs. testing: 0.71). The SARScore model was made available online for ease of use and clinical applicability ( https://yutaka-endo.shinyapps.io/SARScore/ ).

CONCLUSION

The SARScore demonstrated strong discriminatory ability and may be a clinically useful tool to help stratify risk and guide treatment for patients with recurrent HCC.

Comparative effectiveness of several adjuvant therapies after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with microvascular invasion

BACKGROUND

For resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), radical hepatectomy is commonly used as a curative treatment. However, postoperative recurrence significantly diminishes the overall survival (OS) of HCC patients, especially with microvascular invasion (MVI) as an independent high-risk factor for recurrence. While some studies suggest that postoperative adjuvant therapy may decrease the risk of recurrence following liver resection in HCC patients, the specific role of adjuvant therapies in those with MVI remains unclear.

AIM

To conduct a network meta-analysis (NMA) to evaluate the efficacy of various adjuvant therapies and determine the optimal adjuvant regimen.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted on PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science until April 6, 2023. Studies comparing different adjuvant therapies or comparing adjuvant therapy with hepatectomy alone were included. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals were used to combine data on recurrence free survival and OS in both pairwise meta-analyses and NMA.

RESULTS

Fourteen eligible trials (2268 patients) reporting five different therapies were included. In terms of reducing the risk of recurrence, radiotherapy (RT) [HR = 0.34 (0.23, 0.5); surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) = 97.7%] was found to be the most effective adjuvant therapy, followed by hepatic artery infusion chemotherapy [HR = 0.52 (0.35, 0.76); SUCRA = 65.1%]. Regarding OS improvement, RT [HR: 0.35 (0.2, 0.61); SUCRA = 93.1%] demonstrated the highest effectiveness, followed by sorafenib [HR = 0.48 (0.32, 0.69); SUCRA = 70.9%].

CONCLUSION

Adjuvant therapy following hepatectomy may reduce the risk of recurrence and provide a survival benefit for HCC patients with MVI. RT appears to be the most effective adjuvant regimen.

PIVKA-II combined with tumor burden score to predict long-term outcomes of AFP-negative hepatocellular carcinoma patients after liver resection

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to establish a simple prognostic scoring model based on tumor burden score (TBS) and PIVKA-II to predict long-term outcomes of α-fetoprotein (AFP)-negative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

METHODS

511 patients were divided into the training cohort (n = 305) and the validation cohort (n = 206) at a ratio of 6:4. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were established to identify cutoff values of TBS and PIVKA-II. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to analyze survival outcomes. The multivariable Cox regression was used to identify variables independently associated with survival outcomes. The predictive performance of the TBS-PIVKA II score (TPS) model was compared with Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) stage and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC TNM) stage.

RESULTS

The present study established the TPS model using a simple scoring system (0, 1 for low/high TBS [cutoff value: 4.1]; 0, 1 for low/high PIVKA-II [cutoff value: 239 mAU/mL]). The TPS scoring model was divided into three levels according to the summation of TBS score and PIVKA-II score: TPS 0, TPS 1, and TPS 2. The TPS scoring model was able to stratify OS (training: p < 0.001, validation: p < 0.001) and early recurrence (training: p < 0.001; validation: p = 0.001) in the training cohort and the validation cohort. The TPS score was independently associated with OS (TPS 1 vs. 0, HR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.01-5.17; TPS 2 vs. 0, HR: 4.21, 95% CI: 2.01-8.84) and early recurrence (TPS 1 vs. 0, HR: 3.50, 95% CI: 1.71-7.16; TPS 2 vs. 0, HR: 3.79, 95% CI: 1.86-7.75) in the training cohort. The TPS scoring model outperformed BCLC stage and AJCC TNM stage in predicting OS and early recurrence in the training cohort and the validation cohort. But the TPS scoring model was unable to stratify the late recurrence in the training cohort (p = 0.872) and the validation cohort (p = 0.458).

CONCLUSIONS

The TPS model outperformed the BCLC stage and AJCC TNM stage in predicting OS and early recurrence of AFP-negative HCC patients after liver resection, which might better assist surgeons in screening AFP-negative HCC patients who may benefit from liver resection.

Modified integrated tumor burden, liver function, systemic inflammation, and tumor biology score to predict long-term outcomes after resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

A preoperative predictive score for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can help stratify patients who undergo resection relative to long-term outcomes and tailor treatment strategies.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for HCC between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. A risk score (mFIBA) was developed using an Eastern cohort and then validated using a Western cohort.

RESULTS

Among 957 patients, 443 and 514 patients were included from the Eastern and Western cohorts, respectively. On multivariable analysis, alpha-feto protein (HR1.97, 95%CI 1.42-2.72), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (HR1.74, 95%CI 1.28-2.38), albumin-bilirubin grade (HR1.66, 95%CI 1.21-2.28), and imaging tumor burden score (HR1.25, 95%CI 1.12-1.40) were associated with OS. The c-index in the Eastern test and Western validation cohorts were 0.69 and 0.67, respectively. Notably, mFIBA score outperformed previous HCC staging systems. 5-year OS incrementally decreased with an increase in mFIBA. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, the mFIBA score was associated with worse OS (HR1.18, 95%CI 1.13-1.23) and higher risk of recurrence (HR1.16, 95%CI 1.11-1.20). An easy-to-use calculator of the mFIBA score was made available online (https://yutaka-endo.shinyapps.io/mFIBA_score/).

DISCUSSION

The online mFIBA calculator may help surgeons with clinical decision-making to individualize perioperative treatment strategies for patients undergoing resection of HCC.

Using the hazard function to evaluate hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence risk after curative resection

Predicting recurrence patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can be helpful in developing surveillance strategies. This study aimed to use the hazard function to investigate recurrence hazard and peak recurrence time transitions in patients with HCC undergoing liver resection (LR). We enrolled 1204 patients with HCC undergoing LR between 2007 and 2018 at our institution. Recurrence hazard, patterns, and peak rates were analyzed. The overall recurrence hazard peaked at 7.2 months (peak hazard rate [pHR]: 0.0197), but varied markedly. In subgroups analysis based on recurrence risk factors, patients with a high radiographic tumor burden score (pHR: 0.0521), alpha-fetoprotein level ≥ 400 ng/ml (pHR: 0.0427), and pT3-4 (pHR: 0.0656) showed a pronounced peak within the first year after LR. Patients with cirrhosis showed a pronounced peak within three years after LR (pHR: 0.0248), whereas those with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B (pHR: 0.0609) and poor tumor differentiation (pHR: 0.0451) showed multiple peaks during the 5-year follow-up period. In contrast, patients without these recurrence risk factors had a relatively flat hazard function curve. HCC recurrence hazard, patterns, and peak rates varied substantially depending on different risk factors of HCC recurrence.

Objective Definition and Optimized Strategy for "Biologically Borderline Resectable" Colorectal Liver Metastases

BACKGROUND

The prognostic benefit of preoperative chemotherapy leading to conversion surgery for unresectable colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) is well recognized, while that of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) compared with upfront surgery (UFS) for resectable CRLM is negligible. This study aims to assess the prognostic benefit and search for optimal indication of NAC for resectable advanced CRLM by establishing an objective definition of biologically borderline resectable (bBR) CRLM.

METHODS

A bicentric retrospective analysis of patients with CRLM undergoing curative-intent initial liver resection between 2007 and 2021 was performed. An original classification matrix was established, which reassessed technical resectability using virtual hepatectomy and oncological favorability using Beppu's nomogram. Patients with technically resectable but biologically unfavorable CRLM were classified into the bBR group. The propensity score matching analysis using preoperatively available factors was performed to assess long-term outcomes of the bBR-UFS and bBR-NAC groups.

RESULTS

Of 831 patients reviewed, 240 were categorized into the bBR group: bBR -UFS (n = 139) and bBR-NAC (n = 101). Ten (10%) in the bBR-NAC group (n = 101) experienced biological status change from unfavorable to favorable after NAC (Biological Conversion) and showed significantly longer overall survival (hazard ratio 5.63, 95% confidence interval 1.37-23.1; P = 0.016) than the bBR-UFS group. However, after propensity score matching, no significant difference between the UFS and NAC groups (n = 67 for each) was found in long-term outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

NAC for bBR-CRLM did not enhance the prognostic impact of the following liver resection, except for a limited number of optimal candidates experiencing the Biological Conversion.

Impact of Surgical Margin Width on Prognosis Following Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Varies on the Basis of Preoperative Alpha-Feto Protein and Tumor Burden Score

BACKGROUND

We sought to examine the prognostic impact of margin width at time of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) resection relative to the alpha-feto protein tumor burden score (ATS).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for HCC between 2000 and 2020 were identified from a multi-institutional database. The impact of margin width on overall survival and recurrence-free survival was examined relative to ATS using univariable and multivariable analyses.

RESULTS

Among 782 patients with HCC who underwent resection, median ATS was 6.5 [interquartile range (IQR) 4.3-10.2]. Most patients underwent R0 resection (n = 613, 78.4%); among patients who had an R0 resection, 325 (41.6%) had a margin width > 5 mm while 288 (36.8%) had a 0-5 mm margin width. Among patients with high ATS, an increasing margin width was associated with incrementally better overall and recurrence-free survival. In contrast, among patients with low ATS, margin width was not associated with long-term outcomes. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, each unit increase in ATS was independently associated with a 7% higher risk of death [hazard ratio (HR) 1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.11, p < 0.001]. While the incidence of early recurrence was not associated with margin width among patients with low ATS, wider margin width was associated with an incrementally lower incidence of early recurrence among patients with high ATS.

CONCLUSION

ATS, an easy-to-use composite tumor-related metric, was able to risk stratify patients following resection of HCC relative to overall survival and recurrence-free survival. The therapeutic impact of resection margin width had a variable impact on long-term outcomes relative to ATS.

Suppression of hepatocellular carcinoma by Ulva lactuca ulvan via gut microbiota and metabolite interactions

INTRODUCTION

Ulva lactuca polysaccharide (ULP) is green algae extract with numerous biological activities, including anticoagulant, anti-inflammatory, and antiviral effects. However, the inhibitory ability of ULP in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma warrants further studies.

OBJECTIVES

To elucidate the anti-tumor mechanism of ULP action and evaluate its regulatory effect on gut microbiota and metabolism in H22 hepatocellular carcinoma tumor-bearing mice.

METHODS

An H22 tumor-bearing mouse model was established by subcutaneously injecting H22 hepatoma cells. The gut microbiota composition in cecal feces was assessed and subjected to untargeted metabolomic sequencing. The antitumor activity of ULP was verified further by western blot, RT-qPCR, and reactive oxygen species (ROS) assays.

RESULTS

Administration of ULP alleviated tumor growth by modulating the compositions of the gut microbial communities (Tenericutes, Agathobacter, Ruminiclostridium, Parabacteroides, Lactobacillus, and Holdemania) and metabolites (docosahexaenoic acid, uric acid, N-Oleoyl Dopamine, and L-Kynurenine). Mechanistically, ULP promoted ROS production by inhibiting the protein levels of JNK, c-JUN, PI3K, Akt, and Bcl-6, thereby delaying the growth of HepG2 cells.

CONCLUSION

ULP attenuates tumor growth in H22 tumor-bearing mice by modulating gut microbial composition and metabolism. ULP inhibits tumor growth mainly by promoting ROS generation.

TBS-Based Preoperative Score to Predict Non-transplantable Recurrence and Identify Candidates for Upfront Resection Versus Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Recurrence following liver resection (LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can be as high as 50-70%. While salvage liver transplantation may be feasible, patients may develop a non-transplantable recurrence (NTR) (recurrence beyond Milan criteria). We sought to identify preoperative risk factors to predict NTR after resection.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent LR for HCC were identified from a multi-institutional database. Preoperative factors associated with NTR were identified and a risk score model (NTR score) was developed and validated.

RESULTS

Among 1620 patients, 842 (52.0%) developed recurrence; among patients with recurrence, NTR occurred in 341 (40.5%) with a median recurrence-free survival (RFS) of 30 months (24.7-35.3 months). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with NTR included alpha fetoprotein (AFP) > 400 ng/mL [hazard ratio (HR) 1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-2.19], albumin-bilirubin grade (ALBI) (referent low, medium ALBI: HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.10-1.81, high ALBI: HR 2.47, 95% CI 0.91-6.68), and tumor burden score (TBS) (referent low, high TBS: HR 2.55, 95% CI, 1.99-3.28). A simplified TBS-based NTR score was developed using the β-coefficients of each factor (C-index 0.68, 95% CI 0.65-0.71). Higher NTR score was associated with incrementally worse 5-year RFS (low 44.8%, medium 37.5%, high 24.5%) [area under the curve (AUC) 0.59] and increased incidence of NTR (low 13.7%, medium 25.4%, high 38.2%) (AUC 0.65) (both p < 0.001). Moreover, higher NTR score was associated with higher risk of extrahepatic recurrence (low 11.3%, medium 28.8%, high 37.5%) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

NTR following curative-intent resection of HCC occurred in one in five patients. A simple TBS-based NTR score accurately predicted the risk of NTR and may help identify candidates for upfront resection versus transplantation.

Alpha-Fetoprotein Combined with Radiographic Tumor Burden Score to Predict Overall Survival after Liver Resection in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

We evaluated whether combining the radiographic tumor burden score (TBS) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level could be used to stratify overall survival (OS) among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after liver resection (LR). Patients who underwent LR for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0, A, or B HCC between 2011 and 2018 were enrolled. TBS scores were calculated using the following equation: TBS2 = (largest tumor size (in cm))2 + (tumor number)2. Among 743 patients, 193 (26.0%) patients had a low TBS (<2.6), 474 (63.8%) had a moderate TBS (2.6-7.9), and 75 (10.1%) had a high TBS (>7.9). Those with a TBS ≤ 7.9 and AFP < 400 ng/mL had a significantly better OS than those with a TBS > 7.9 and an AFP < 400 ng/mL (p = 0.003) or ≥ 400 ng/mL (p < 0.001). A multivariate analysis using TBS ≤ 7.9 and AFP < 400 ng/mL as the reference values showed that a TBS > 7.9 and an AFP < 400 ng/mL (hazard ratio (HR): 2.063; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.175-3.623; p = 0.012) or ≥ 400 ng/mL (HR: 6.570; 95% CI: 3.684-11.719; p < 0.001) were independent predictors of OS. In conclusion, combining radiographic TBSs and AFP levels could stratify OS among HCC patients undergoing LR.