Liver transplant recipients mortality on the waiting list: long-term comparison to Child-Pugh classification and MELD

Liver Disease Undernutrition Screening Tool Questionnaire Predicts Decompensation and Mortality in Cirrhotic Outpatients with Portal Hypertension

BACKGROUND

Numerous scores are designed to predict outcomes of patients with liver cirrhosis. Our study aimed to evaluate the ability of the Liver Disease Undernutrition Screening Tool (LDUST) in predicting mortality and decompensation in outpatients with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). We hypothesized that LDUST could help identify patients in need of nutritional supplementation and intervention.

METHODS

A prospective study of 57 CSPH patients (36.8% female, mean age: 63.5 ± 9.9 years) with a median follow-up of 41 months was conducted. Baseline liver function, nutrition, and sarcopenia were assessed, alongside LDUST. During follow-up, the occurrence of liver decompensation, hospital admission, need for emergency care, and mortality were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 56.1% of patients were Child A, and the most frequent etiology was alcohol (50.9%). Malnutrition risk according to LDUST raised mortality (HR: 25.96 (1.47-456.78)), decompensation (HR 9.78 (2.08-45.89)), and admission (HR 4.86 (1.09-21.61)) risks in multivariate Cox analysis. Combining LDUST with Child and MELD scores improved their decompensation prediction (0.936 vs. 0.811 and 0.866 vs. 0.700).

CONCLUSIONS

The LDUST has a solid ability to predict complications in cirrhosis outpatients with CSPH, and its integration with Child and MELD models enhances their predictive power. LDUST implementation could identify individuals necessitating early nutritional support.

Urinary BA Indices as Prognostic Biomarkers for Complications Associated with Liver Diseases

Hepatobiliary diseases and their complications cause the accumulation of toxic bile acids (BA) in the liver, blood, and other tissues, which may exacerbate the underlying condition and lead to unfavorable prognosis. To develop and validate prognostic biomarkers for the prediction of complications of cholestatic liver disease based on urinary BA indices, liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry was used to analyze urine samples from 257 patients with cholestatic liver diseases during a 7-year follow-up period. The urinary BA profile and non-BA parameters were monitored, and logistic regression models were used to predict the prognosis of hepatobiliary disease-related complications. Urinary BA indices were applied to quantify the composition, metabolism, hydrophilicity, and toxicity of the BA profile. We have developed and validated the bile-acid liver disease complication (BALDC) model based on BA indices using logistic regression model, to predict the prognosis of cholestatic liver disease complications including ascites. The mixed BA and non-BA model was the most accurate and provided higher area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and smaller akaike information criterion (AIC) values compared to both non-BA and MELD (models for end stage liver disease) models. Therefore, the mixed BA and non-BA model could be used to predict the development of ascites in patients diagnosed with liver disease at early stages of intervention. This will help physicians to make a better decision when treating hepatobiliary disease-related ascites.

FIB-4 and imaging for measuring fibrosis in hepatitis C virus

OBJECTIVES

Noninvasive measures are widely used to assess fibrosis and may be used to prioritize hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. We examined risks for likely fibrosis in patients with chronic HCV infection using fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and imaging.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A HCV screening program diagnosed chronic HCV in patients born from 1945 to 1965 admitted in a safety net hospital. Likely fibrosis was based on FIB-4 (≥1.45) alone or combined with imaging interpreted as fibrosis or cirrhosis. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) for demographic, clinical, and insurance factors associated with each outcome. Using multiple linear regression among patients with likely fibrosis, we examined associations with higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores.

RESULTS

Using FIB-4 alone, 57% (83/146) of patients had likely fibrosis versus 43% (63/148) using FIB-4 plus imaging. Obesity/overweight and Hispanic ethnicity had over three-fold to four-fold higher AORs for fibrosis, respectively, based on FIB-4 plus imaging, but both AORs were only two-fold greater with FIB-4 alone. Being uninsured was significantly associated with fibrosis based on FIB-4 alone [AOR=2.40 (95% confidence interval 1.01-5.70)] but not with imaging. Heavy alcohol use and older age were associated with higher AORs of fibrosis with both measures (all P<0.004). MELD scores were ∼3 points higher for uninsured patients, regardless of measure (both P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Using FIB-4 plus imaging to identify fibrosis in chronic HCV, higher risks are seen for Hispanics and overweight/obese individuals than using FIB-4 alone. Higher MELD scores at diagnosis for the uninsured indicate delayed access to care.

Recalibrating the Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score to Improve Prediction of Transplant-Free Survival in Patients with Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is a widely used and validated predictor of long-term survival in cirrhosis. However, the cutpoints for stratifying laboratory variables in CTP have never been validated.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to identify evidence-based cutpoints for the CTP laboratory subscores to improve its predictive capacity for transplant-free survival.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

DATA SOURCE

Using a cohort of 30,897 cirrhotic US Veteran patients with at least 5 years of follow-up, we performed Cox proportional hazard survival model iterations varying the upper and lower cutpoints for INR, total bilirubin and albumin CTP subscores. Cutpoints yielding the highest Harrell's C-statistics for concordance with transplant-free survival were incorporated into a modified CTP (mCTP) score. Validation of the mCTP was performed at multiple time frames within the follow-up period of the cohort and within subsets defined by disease etiology.

RESULTS

Modification of CTP cutpoints increased the Harrell's C-statistic for age- and gender-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models from 0.701 ± 0.002 to 0.709 ± 0.002 and the risk ratio per unit change from 1.49 (1.48-1.50) to 1.53 (1.52-1.54). The modified cutpoints showed superiority in predicting 5-year transplant-free survival in various disease etiology subgroups. A mCTP substituting serum creatinine for INR performed superiorly for predicting 5-year transplant-free survival.

CONCLUSION

We propose an evidence-based recalibration of CTP score cutpoints that optimizes this model's capacity to predict transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis. The CTP score remains the best predictor of 5-year overall and transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis.

Development and Performance of an Algorithm to Estimate the Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score From a National Electronic Healthcare Database

BACKGROUND & METHODS

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is a widely used and validated predictor of long-term survival in cirrhosis. The CTP score is a composite of 5 subscores, 3 based on objective clinical laboratory values and 2 subjective variables quantifying the severity of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy. To date, no system to quantify CTP score from administrative databases has been validated. The Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease study is a multicenter collaborative study to evaluate the outcomes and costs of hepatocellular carcinoma in the U.S. Veterans Health Administration. We developed and validated an algorithm to calculate electronic CTP (eCTP) scores by using data from the Veterans Health Administration Corporate Data Warehouse.

METHODS

Multiple algorithms for determining each CTP subscore from International Classification of Diseases version 9, Common Procedural Terminology, pharmacy, and laboratory data were devised and tested in 2 patient cohorts. For each cohort, 6 site investigators (Boston, Bronx, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and West Haven VA Medical Centers) were provided cases from which to determine validity of diagnosis, laboratory data, and clinical assessment of ascites and encephalopathy. The optimal algorithm (designated eCTP) was then applied to 30,840 cirrhotic patients alive in the first quarter of 2008 for whom 5-year overall and transplant-free survival data were available. The ability of the eCTP score and other disease severity scores (Charlson-Deyo index, Veterans Aging Cohort Study index, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and Cirrhosis Comorbidity) to predict survival was then assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Spearman correlations for administrative and investigator validated laboratory data in the HCC and cirrhotic cohorts, respectively, were 0.85 and 0.92 for bilirubin, 0.92 and 0.87 for albumin, and 0.84 and 0.86 for international normalized ratio. In the HCC cohort, the overall eCTP score matched 96% of patients to within 1 point of the chart-validated CTP score (Spearman correlation, 0.81). In the cirrhosis cohort, 98% were matched to within 1 point of their actual CTP score (Spearman, 0.85). When applied to a cohort of 30,840 patients with cirrhosis, each unit change in eCTP was associated with 39% increase in the relative risk of death or transplantation. The Harrell C statistic for the eCTP (0.678) was numerically higher than those for other disease severity indices for predicting 5-year transplant-free survival. Adding other predictive models to the eCTP resulted in minimal differences in its predictive performance.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated an algorithm to extrapolate an eCTP score from data in a large administrative database with excellent correlation to actual CTP score on chart review. When applied to an administrative database, this algorithm is a highly useful predictor of survival when compared with multiple other published liver disease severity indices.

Challenges and opportunities in drug and biomarker development for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: findings and recommendations from an American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases-U.S. Food and Drug Administration Joint Workshop

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease (CLD) in North America. It is a growing contributor to the burden of CDL requiring liver transplantation. Cirrhosis is also associated with an increased risk of hepatocellular cancer, which may occur even in the absence of cirrhosis in subjects with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), the histological form of NAFLD associated with increased liver-related mortality. The diagnosis of NASH currently requires a liver biopsy. There are also no U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved therapies for NASH. Therefore, there is a need to develop better diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for patients with NASH, targeting both those with early-stage disease as well as those with advanced liver fibrosis. There are unique challenges in the design of studies for these target populations. The long relatively asymptomatic time interval in the progression of NAFLD and NASH to cirrhosis and ultimately liver failure, along with gaps in knowledge regarding disease modifiers, combine to present significant challenges in trial design. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop methods to identify the populations at particular risk of disease progression and validate endpoints that reflect meaningful changes in health status in this population. This article summarizes the discussion at a joint workshop held September 5 and 6, 2013 in Silver Spring, Maryland, sponsored by the FDA and the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases to develop guidance on diagnostic and therapeutic modalities for NASH.

When to consider liver transplant during the management of chronic liver disease

The decision to perform liver transplantation for a particular patient is never the decision of one single individual, although a single individual could preclude transplant as an option if the opportunity for referral is missed. Every physician treating patients with cirrhosis, including primary care physicians and primary gastroenterologists, should watch for the essential turning points at which a patient may become eligible for a transplant referral. Timing of referral could be assessed according to either the type of liver disease or non–disease-specific measures of disease severity. Although the MELD score is an easily accessible and convenient tool it is not as well known as CTP classification, and many cirrhotic patients under long-term management may not be being allocated a MELD score regularly calculated by their primary physicians. Because a slow progression in MELD score may occur without a change in symptoms, reaching the MELD score acceptable for transplant referral may go unrecognized. As generalists face the rising prevalence of NAFLD and the rising prevalence of cirrhosis and HCC from HCV, there will be an increasing need for education in the management of liver disease. It will be necessary for specialists and health care systems to better inform primary care physicians about the recommendations on criteria for transplant referral and the critical windows of opportunity within which they can act. Although there is a recognized knowledge gap that needs to be addressed, once a patient is in medical care, inadequate physician knowledge should never be the cause for late timing or missing the opportunity for referral.

The MELD system and liver transplant waiting-list mortality in developing countries: lessons learned from São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE

The MELD system has not yet been tested as an allocation tool for liver transplantation in the developing countries. In 2006, MELD (Model for End-stage Liver Disease) was launched as a new liver allocation system in São Paulo, Brazil. This study was designed to assess the results of the new allocation policy on waiting list mortality.

METHODS

The State of São Paulo liver transplant database was retrospectively reviewed from July 2003 through July 2009. Patients were divided into those who were transplanted before (Pre-MELD Group) and those who were transplanted after (post-MELD Group) the implementation of the MELD system. Only adult liver transplant candidates were included. Waiting list mortality was the primary endpoint.

RESULTS

The unadjusted death rate in waiting list decreased significantly after the implementation of the MELD system (from 91.2 to 33.5/1,000 patients per year; p<0.0001). Multivariate analysis showed a significant drop in risk of waiting list death for post-MELD patients (HR 0.34; p<0.0001). Currently, 48% of patients are transplanted within 1-year of listing (versus 23% in the pre-MELD era; p<0.0001). Patient and graft survival did not change with MELD implementation.

CONCLUSION

There was a reduction in waiting time and list mortality after implementation of the MELD system in São Paulo. Patients listed in the post-MELD era had a significant reduction in risk for the waiting list mortality. There were no changes in post-transplant outcomes. MELD can be successfully utilized for liver transplant allocation in developing countries.

Relationship between severity of liver dysfunction and the relative ratio of liver to aortic enhancement (RE) on MRI using hepatocyte-specific contrast

PURPOSE

To evaluate differences in liver enhancement among patients with low and high morbidity risks and to determine the relationship between severity of liver dysfunction and the relative ratio of liver to aortic enhancement (RE) on MRI using hepatocyte-specific contrast.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 126 patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and blood serum testing including serology, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine tests. Radiologists analyzed a region of interest in the liver and aorta on precontrast and 10- and 20-minute delayed hepatobiliary phase MR images. Liver enhancement after 10 (LE10min ) and 20 minutes (LE20min ) were compared between the low- and high-risk groups by independent t-test. Regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between the Model for Endstage Liver Disease (MELD) score and RE.

RESULTS

All 126 patients were classified into either the low-risk group (MELD <8; n = 85) or high-risk group (MELD ≥8; n = 41). The mean LE10min and LE20min were significantly higher in the low-risk group (471.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 449.79-493.43 and 510.69; 95% CI: 486.51-534.87, respectively) than in the high-risk group (401.6776; 95% CI: 364.75-438.61 and 413.81; 95% CI: 370.91-456.70). There was a moderate inverse correlation between MELD score and the relative ratio of liver enhancement (RLE) (r = -0.5442; 95% CI: -0.6480 to -0.4207; P<0.01), but a high positive correlation between MELD score and RE (r = 0.7470; 95% CI: 0.6665-0.8102; P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Although liver enhancement was significantly greater in low-risk patients compared to high-risk patients, RE may be a better predictor of liver function than RLE.

Comparison of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification and the model for end-stage liver disease score as predictors of the severity of the systemic inflammatory response in patients undergoing living-donor liver transplantation

The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification system and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting the severity of the systemic inflammatory response in living-donor liver transplantation patients. Recipients of liver graft were allocated to a recipient group (n = 39) and healthy donors to a donor group (n = 42). The association between the CTP classification, the MELD scores and perioperative cytokine concentrations in the recipient group was evaluated. The pro-inflammatory cytokines measured included interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α; the anti-inflammatory cytokines measured included IL-10 and IL-4. Cytokine concentrations were quantified using sandwich enzyme-linked immunoassays. The IL-6, TNF-α, and IL-10 concentrations in the recipient group were significantly higher than those in healthy donor group patients. All preoperative cytokine levels, except IL-6, increased in relation to the severity of liver disease, as measured by the CTP classification. Additionally, all cytokine levels, except IL-6, were significantly correlated preoperatively with MELD scores. However, the correlations diminished during the intraoperative period. The CTP classification and the MELD score are equally reliable in predicting the severity of the systemic inflammatory response, but only during the preoperative period.

Orthotopic liver transplantation without venovenous bypass using the conventional and piggyback techniques

INTRODUCTION

Orthotopic liver transplantation is a widely used procedure for the treatment of irreversible liver diseases for which there is no possibility of medical treatment. When this procedure is performed by the conventional technique, the retrohepatic vena cava is removed along with the native liver. The inferior vena cava (IVC) remains clamped until the revascularization of the graft, and in this period there is a reduction in the venous return, which may induce a fall by up to 50% in the cardiac output with hemodynamic instability and a fall in renal perfusion pressure. The use of a portal-femoral-axillary venovenous bypass system, in which the blood from the femoral and portal veins returns to the heart via the axillary vein propelled by a centrifugal pump, is intended to minimize the effects of the IVC clamping. In the piggyback (PB) technique, the native liver is removed and the IVC of the recipient is preserved and only partially clamped. We have employed both techniques without the use of venovenous bypass for 10 years. The objective of this study was to compare the results obtained from the use of the two techniques.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed of 195 patients transplanted between 1999 and 2008: 125 by the conventional technique and 70, the PB technique. The intraoperative parameters were analyzed (surgical time, ischemia time, use of blood products, and diuresis), as well as intensive care support (duration of stay in intensive care unit and use of vasoactive drugs), period of intubation, length of hospital stay, renal function, graft function, postoperative complications, retransplantation, and patient survival.

RESULTS

The PB group showed a reduction in surgical time, warm ischemia time, the use of packed red blood cells concentrates, and fresh frozen plasma, as well as mortality at 30 days (P<.05). There were no differences in relation to cold ischemia time, intraoperative diuresis; length of stay and use of vasoactive drugs in the intensive care unit; the period of intubation; the duration of hospital stay; the renal function; the graft function; the need for reoperation; the incidence of sepsis, biliary complications, vascular complications; need for retransplantation; and 1-year mortality. The cumulative survival rate at 1 year was significantly better among the PB patients.

CONCLUSION

Orthotopic liver transplantation can be performed without venovenous bypass with good results, using either the conventional technique or the PB technique. Provided that there is no technical contraindication and a long ischemia period is not foreseen, the PB technique should be the technique of choice.

Radiofrequency ablation for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma with decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is used to treat early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but is sometimes avoided in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis because of the possible side effect of deterioration of liver function.

AIMS

In this study, we report the safety and effects of RFA for treating HCC patients with Child-Pugh B/C liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

Sixty-six consecutive HCC patients with Child-Pugh B/C cirrhosis, who were treated by RFA, were enrolled in this study. We analyzed patient outcomes, the complications of RFA, and changes in liver function and tumor markers.

RESULTS

Fifty-six patients were classified as Child-Pugh class B, and 10 were classified as class C. The overall survival rates in patients with Child-Pugh B and C cirrhosis were 82 and 83% at 1 year and 47 and 31% at 3 years, respectively. Serum total bilirubin (T.Bil), albumin, prothrombin time, ascites, and encephalopathy were unchanged at 1, 3, and 6 months after RFA in patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis; however, serum T.Bil levels increased significantly at 6 months after RFA in 6/10 (60%) patients with Child-Pugh C cirrhosis. Hemothorax and rupture of esophageal varices were observed in 2 patients; however, there were no complications related to poor liver function.

CONCLUSION

RFA is a useful modality for treating HCC in patients with poor liver function such as Child-Pugh B and C, but careful monitoring after RFA must be needed.

LabMELD-based organ allocation increases total costs of liver transplantation: a single-center experience

INTRODUCTION

In 2006, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based allocation was implemented in the Eurotransplant (ET) region. Sick patients, who in general require more resources, are prioritized. In this analysis, the effect of MELD on costs for liver transplantation (LTx) was assessed.

METHODS

Total costs for LTx before and after implementation of MELD were identified in 256 patients from January 2005-December 2007. Forty-nine patients (Re-LTx, HU listings, and 30-d mortality) were excluded from further analysis. The costs of LTx in 207 patients have been correlated with their corresponding labMELD; 84 and 123 LTx before and after implementation of MELD were compared, and patient survival was monitored.

RESULTS

A positive correlation exists between labMELD and costs (r(2) = 0.28; p < 0.05). Only nominal correlation existed between the Child-Pugh classification and costs. The labMELD scores can be stratified into four groups (I: 6-10, II: 11-18, III: 19-24, and IV: >24), with an increase of €15.672 ± 2.233 between each group (p < 0.05). Recipients' labMELD at the time of LTx increased significantly in the MELD-based allocation system. Costs increased by €11.650/patient (p < 0.05), while median survival decreased from 1219 to 869 d (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

LabMELD-based allocation increased total costs of LTx. In accordance with other studies, the sickest patients need the most resources.

The impact of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) on liver transplantation in one center in Brazil

CONTEXT: Presently the MELD score is used as the waiting list criterion for liver transplantation in Brazil. In this method more critical patients are considered priority to transplantation. OBJECTIVE: To compare the results of liver transplantation when the chronologic waiting list was the criterion for organ allocation (pre-MELD era) with MELD score period (MELD era) in one liver transplantation unit in Brazil. METHODS: The charts of the patients subjected to liver transplantation at the Hospital de Clínicas da Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, PR, Brazil, were reviewed from January of 2001 to August of 2008. Patients were divided into two groups: pre-MELD era and MELD era. They were compared in relation to demographics of donors and receptors, etiology of cirrhosis, cold and warm ischemia time, presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, MELD score and Child-Pugh score and classification at the time of transplantation, units of red blood cells transfused during the transplantation, intensive care unit stay, total hospital stay and 3 month and 1 year survival. RESULTS: Initially, 205 liver transplantations were analyzed. Ninety four were excluded and 111 were included: 71 on the pre-MELD era and 40 on the MELD era. The two groups were comparable in relation to donors and receptors age and sex, etiology of cirrhosis and cold and warm ischemia time. The receptors of the MELD era had more hepatocellular carcinoma than those of the pre-MELD era (37.5% vs 16.9%). Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma had less advanced cirrhosis on both eras. The MELD score was the same on both eras. Excluding the cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, MELD era score was higher than pre-MELD score (18.2 vs 15.8). There were an increased number of transplants on Child-Pugh A and C and a decreased number on Child-Pugh B receptors on MELD era. Both eras had the same need of red blood cells transfusion, intensive care unit stay and hospital stay. Also, 3 month and 1 year survival were the same: 76% and 74.6% on pre-MELD era and 75% and 70.9% on MELD era. CONCLUSION: In our center, after the introduction of MELD score as the priority criterion for liver transplantation there were an increased number of transplants with hepatocellular carcinoma. Excluding these patients, the receptors were operated upon with more advanced cirrhosis. Nevertheless the patients had the same need for red blood cells transfusion, intensive care unit and hospital stay and 3 months and 1 year survival.

Survival tree and MELD to predict long term survival in liver transplantation waiting list

MELD score is a formula based on laboratory variables used as a predictor of short-term mortality index in cirrhotic patients. It is applied to allocate patients in liver transplantation waiting list in many countries. However, MELD score cutoff point accuracy to predict long term mortality has not been statistically evaluated. The aim of this study was to analyze the MELD score and other variables related to long-term mortality using a new model: the Survival Tree analysis. The variables considered in this study were obtained at the time of liver transplantation list enrollment. The graphical representation of the survival trees showed that MELD 16 was the most statistically significant mortality cutoff point. The results were compatible with the MELD cutoff point reported in the clinical literature. This methodology can be extended to identify significant cutoff points related to other diseases whose severity is not necessarily expressed by MELD.

Evaluation of indocyanine green clearance and model for end-stage liver disease for estimation of short-term prognosis in decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Indocyanine green (ICG) clearance has been proposed as a quantitative liver function test several decades ago. Interest in this method has been renewed following the development of finger pulse densitometry for noninvasive estimation of the ICG plasma disappearance rate (PDR). On the other hand, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), which is based on routine laboratory parameters, is widely used for estimation of short-term survival in cirrhosis, but its prognostic value in critically ill cirrhotic patients is unclear.

AIMS

The aim of the present study was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of ICG PDR vs. MELD for estimation of short-term prognosis in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

Ninety consecutive cirrhotic patients who were admitted for decompensated disease or were being evaluated for liver transplantation were screened. Patients who underwent liver transplantation within the following 90 days and those with hepatocellular carcinoma were excluded. In the remaining 70 patients, routine laboratory parameters and ICG clearance were analysed. Following an injection of ICG 0.25 mg/kg, PDR was measured by finger pulse densitometry. The diagnostic accuracy of ICG PDR and MELD for prediction of 90-day survival was assessed by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

ROC curve analysis revealed superior diagnostic accuracy for MELD as compared with ICG PDR in predicting 90-day survival (area under the ROC curve 0.89 vs. 0.71). A MELD cut-off of 22 provided the best discrimination for prediction of 90-day survival.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD is superior to ICG PDR for estimation of short-term survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

[The application of MELD score in patients submitted to liver transplantation: a retrospective analysis of survival and the predictive factors in the short and long term]

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. There are few reports studying the correlation between MELD and long-term posttransplantation survival.

AIM

To assess the value of pretransplant MELD in the prediction of posttransplant survival.

METHODS

The adult patients (age >18 years) who underwent liver transplantation were examined in a retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients, through the prospective data base. We excluded acute liver failure, retransplantation and reduced or split-livers. The liver donors were evaluated according to: age, sex, weight, creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, personal antecedents, brain death cause, steatosis, expanded criteria donor number and index donor risk. The recipients' data were: sex, age, weight, chronic hepatic disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh points, pretransplant and initial MELD score, pretransplant creatinine clearance, sodium, cold and warm ischemia times, hospital length of stay, blood requirements, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT >1,000 UI/L = liver dysfunction). The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used for the univariable analyses of posttransplant patient survival. For the multivariable analyses the Cox proportional hazard regression method with the stepwise procedure was used with stratifying sodium and MELD as variables. ROC curve was used to define area under the curve for MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh.

RESULTS

A total of 232 patients with 10 years follow up were available. The MELD cutoff was 20 and Child-Turcotte-Pugh cutoff was 11.5. For MELD score > or =20, the risk factors for death were: red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. For the patients with hyponatremia the risk factors were: negative delta-MELD score, red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. The regression univariated analyses came up with the following risk factors for death: score MELD > or = 25, blood requirements, recipient creatinine clearance pretransplant and age donor > or =50. After stepwise analyses, only red cell requirement was predictive. Patients with MELD score < 25 had a 68.86%, 50,44% and 41,50% chance for 1, 5 and 10-year survival and > or =25 were 39.13%, 29.81% and 22.36% respectively. Patients without hyponatremia were 65.16%, 50.28% and 41,98% and with hyponatremia 44.44%, 34.28% and 28.57% respectively. Patients with IDR > or =1.7 showed 53.7%, 27.71% and 13.85% and index donor risk <1.7 was 63.62%, 51.4% and 44.08%, respectively. Age donor > 50 years showed 38.4%, 26.21% and 13.1% and age donor < or =50 years showed 65.58%, 26.21% and 13.1%. Association with delta-MELD score did not show any significant difference. Expanded criteria donors were associated with primary non-function and severe liver dysfunction. Predictive factors for death were blood requirements, hyponatremia, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion MELD over 25, recipient's hyponatremia, blood requirements, donor's sodium were associated with poor survival.

A randomized pilot trial of oral branched-chain amino acids in early cirrhosis: validation using prognostic markers for pre-liver transplant status

Because of the chronic shortage of liver donors, hepatologists are required to prolong the liver transplant waiting period by preserving the hepatic reserve of scheduled recipients. This study examined the effectiveness of oral branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs), using outcome markers indicating pretransplant hepatic reserve. Fifty-six consecutive eligible patients with Child class A cirrhosis without major complications were randomly assigned to receive oral BCAA granules (12.45 g/day) for least 1 year or no BCAAs. Differences between groups in the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, asialoscintigraphic clearance index (CI), and complications were examined. Of 50 remaining patients, 27 received BCAAs, and 23 received no BCAAs (mean duration, 3.2 years). The mean annual changes in the MELD score, CTP score, and asialoscintigraphic CI were smaller in the BCAA group than in the control group (-0.06 +/- 0.23 versus 0.10 +/- 0.40, P = 0.024, 0.06 +/- 0.30 versus 0.30 +/- 0.48, P = 0.037, and 0.00 +/- 0.02 versus 0.02 +/- 0.04, P = 0.040, respectively). The mean annual changes in the serum total bilirubin and the serum albumin in the BCAA group were better preserved than those in the control group (-0.07 +/- 0.20 versus 0.12 +/- 0.18 mg/dL, P < 0.001, and 0.07 +/- 0.13 versus -0.02 +/- 0.19 g/dL, P = 0.005, respectively); other laboratory variables were not significant. The incidence of overall major cirrhotic complications was lower in the BCAA group than in the control group [14.8% (4 of 27 patients) versus 30.4% (7 of 23 patients) at 3 years, P = 0.043]; only ascites was significant individually. In conclusion, early interventional oral BCAAs might prolong the liver transplant waiting period by preserving hepatic reserve in cirrhosis.

Values of end-stage liver disease model in assessment of prognosis in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis

AIM: To compare the prognostic values of for end-stage liver disease (MELD) model and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) for patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.

METHODS: From a previously collected database, 203 patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis admitted to our hospital were studied and followed up at least for one year. MELD and CTP score and classification were calculated on entry. Receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) and the area under ROC were used to determine the ability of the scores for predicting three, six and twelve month mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis (K-M) was performed using the cut-offs to establish the predictive power of each score.

RESULTS: There were 23, 39 and 85 dead cases within 3, 6 and 12 mo respectively. There was a significant correlation between the MELD and CTP score in 3, 6 and 12 mo (r = 0.76, 0.69, 0.71, P < 0.01). The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves of MELD and CTP for the occurrence of death in 3 mo were 0.886 and 0.775. There was a significant difference in the 3 mo between two scores (P < 0.01). The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MELD was 0.892 compared with 0.876 for CTP at 6 mo (P > 0.05); the area was 0.873 and 0.886 respectively at 12 mo (P > 0.05). Both MELD and CTP scores predicted the death rate and survival rate within 3, 6 and 12 mo by survival analysis (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION: MELD is a strong prognosis predictor for the decompensated liver cirrhosis. MELD was significantly better than CTP score for predicting in-hospital mortality in 3 mo. However, these are not superior to CTP score and CTP classification in 6 and 12 mo.

Prediction of survival after liver transplantation by pre-transplant parameters

OBJECTIVE

Score-based medical urgency criteria are used for necessity-oriented liver transplantation (OLT) but lead to an increasing number of complications in patients with reduced post-OLT survival. A prediction of outcome would improve preoperative patient selection and management.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

One-hundred-and-thirty-three consecutive adult patients (63.9% men, mean age 47.4+/-11.2 years) given transplants between May 2004 and November 2005 at the Hannover Medical School were analysed retrospectively using univariate and multivariate methods.

RESULTS

Indications were: 27.1% viral hepatitis, 19.6% primary sclerosing cholangitis, 15.0% alcoholic liver disease, 7.5% metabolic liver disease, 6.8% primary biliary cirrhosis. Overall, 12-month patient survival was 81.2%. The mean MELD score at OLT was 14.5+/-5.3 and 12-month survival with MELD >16 (71.7%) and <16 (86.2%) differed significantly (p=0.041). Predictors of 12-month mortality included age (53.2+/-9.4 versus 46.1+/-11.2 years; p=0.004), lower cholinesterase (2.9+/-1.88 versus 3.7+/-2.02 kU/l; p=0.026) and serum creatinine (160.4+/-186.8 versus 77.7+/-31.6 micromol/l; p=0.007), with creatinine and cholinesterase as independent parameters. Based on these parameters, a model for predicting patient survival after liver transplantation was calculated and validated in a second independent cohort of 87 OLT patients. This score identified a high-risk group and a low-risk group (overall survival 47.4 versus 91.2%; p<0.001) with a specificity of 87.3% and a sensitivity of 68.75%.

CONCLUSION

Age, pre-OLT creatinine and cholinesterase are predictors of short-term post-OLT survival and may be helpful as a bedside score in pre-OLT clinical management, outcome prediction and decision-making.

Use of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to predict 1-year survival of Japanese patients with cirrhosis and to determine who will benefit from living donor liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Consideration of the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis is important when determining the appropriate timing of liver transplantation. Especially in Japan, where 99% of liver transplants are from living donors, timing is very important not only for the patient but also for the family, who need time to consider the various factors involved in living donations.

METHODS

To clarify the applicability of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in Japanese patients with cirrhosis, changes in the MELD score over 24 months were reviewed in 79 patients with cirrhosis who subsequently died of liver failure (n=33) or who survived 24 months (n=46). All patients had Child class B or C cirrhosis at the start of follow-up. We also compared their survival with that of 30 patients treated by living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) in our institute to determine the proper timing of transplantation in patients with cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Significant stratification of survival curves was observed for MELD scores of <12, 12-15, 15-18, and >18 (P=0.0018). A significant survival benefit of LDLT was observed in patients with MELD score >or=15 (P=0.0181), and significantly more risk with transplantation was observed in those with MELD score <15 compared with that of patients in whom the disease followed its natural course (P=0.0168).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score is useful for predicting 1-year survival in Japanese patients with cirrhosis. MELD scores of 15 had discriminatory value for indicating a survival benefit to be gained by liver transplantation and thus can be used to help patients and their families by identifying patients who would benefit from LDLT.

K(ICG) value, a reliable real-time estimator of graft function, accurately predicts outcomes in adult living-donor liver transplantation

Reliable monitoring enabling evaluation of graft function is crucial after living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT). A method to identify poor graft function at an early postoperative period would allow opportune intensive clinical management to bring about further improvements in LDLT outcomes. This study assessed the reliability of the indocyanine green (ICG) elimination rate constant (K(ICG)) value as an estimator of graft function and determined the actual temporal changes of K(ICG) after LDLT. K(ICG) values were measured using a noninvasive method in 30 adult recipients up to 28 days after LDLT. The receptor index (LHL15) based on liver scintigraphy, and graft parenchymal damage score based on histopathological findings were evaluated after LDLT and correlated well with simultaneous K(ICG). Thus, K(ICG) measured by noninvasive method was confirmed as accurately evaluating graft function. Changes of K(ICG) after LDLT in recipients with good graft function were maintained, after some falls in the early periods, and had a significant difference compared with those for recipients without good graft function; moreover, there were already significant differences in K(ICG) 24 hours after LDLT. Mean transit time reflecting systemic hemodynamics revealed that recipients without good outcomes fell into an unstable systemic hemodynamic state, and effective hepatic blood flow has a large influence on liver regeneration after LDLT. In conclusion, we suggested that K(ICG) values can predict clinical outcomes at the early postoperative period after LDLT by sharply reflecting the influence of systemic dynamics on splanchnic circulation.

[Liver transplantation: deciding between need and donor allocation]

Liver transplantation represents an established therapeutic option for advanced liver diseases. The spectrum of indications encompasses infectious, vascular, immunological and toxic diseases leading to cirrhosis, in addition to genetic, metabolic, developmental and selected neoplastic diseases. On the one hand the timing of liver transplantation is determined by the disease specific course until decompensation and the disease manifestation involving bile ducts or hepatocytes. On the other hand it represents gene therapy of diseases affecting the liver, or entities where the genetic defect lies in the liver. In view of the shortage of donor organs and an increasing requirement for liver transplantation the challenge is to provide an effective and fair waiting list management. Reform of allocation criteria has put the focus on urgency. This in turn leads to an increase in waiting time for elective transplantations, inclusion of end stage diseases and critical patients, higher perioperative costs, problems with the matching of organs and the problem of an effective use of organ resources. Fair allocation and medical necessity therefore define the challenges surrounding the indications for liver transplantation.