Effect of study duration on the interpretation of tuberculosis molecular epidemiology investigations

Transmission of tuberculosis in a South African community with a high prevalence of HIV infection

BACKGROUND

In settings of high tuberculosis transmission, little is known of the interaction between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive and HIV-negative tuberculosis disease and of the impact of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs on tuberculosis transmission dynamics.

METHODS

Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates were collected from patients with tuberculosis who resided in a South African township with a high burden of tuberculosis and HIV infection. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from clinic records. Isolates underwent IS6110-based restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. Patients with unique (nonclustered) M. tuberculosis genotypes and cluster index cases (ie, the first tuberculosis case in a cluster) were defined as having tuberculosis due to reactivation of latent M. tuberculosis infection. Secondary cases in clusters were defined as having tuberculosis due to recent M. tuberculosis infection.

RESULTS

Overall, 311 M. tuberculosis genotypes were identified among 718 isolates from 710 patients; 224 (31%) isolates were unique strains, and 478 (67%) occurred in 87 clusters. Cluster index cases were significantly more likely than other tuberculosis cases to be HIV negative. HIV-positive patients were more likely to be secondary cases (P = .001), including patients receiving ART (P = .004). Only 8% of cases of adult-adult transmission of tuberculosis occurred on shared residential plots.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent infection accounted for the majority of tuberculosis cases, particularly among HIV-positive patients, including patients receiving ART. HIV-negative patients may be disproportionally responsible for ongoing transmission.

Towards eliminating bias in cluster analysis of TB genotyped data

The relative contributions of transmission and reactivation of latent infection to TB cases observed clinically has been reported in many situations, but always with some uncertainty. Genotyped data from TB organisms obtained from patients have been used as the basis for heuristic distinctions between circulating (clustered strains) and reactivated infections (unclustered strains). Naïve methods previously applied to the analysis of such data are known to provide biased estimates of the proportion of unclustered cases. The hypergeometric distribution, which generates probabilities of observing clusters of a given size as realized clusters of all possible sizes, is analyzed in this paper to yield a formal estimator for genotype cluster sizes. Subtle aspects of numerical stability, bias, and variance are explored. This formal estimator is seen to be stable with respect to the epidemiologically interesting properties of the cluster size distribution (the number of clusters and the number of singletons) though it does not yield satisfactory estimates of the number of clusters of larger sizes. The problem that even complete coverage of genotyping, in a practical sampling frame, will only provide a partial view of the actual transmission network remains to be explored.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in a country with low tuberculosis incidence: role of immigration and HIV infection

Immigrants from high-burden countries and HIV-coinfected individuals are risk groups for tuberculosis (TB) in countries with low TB incidence. Therefore, we studied their role in transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Switzerland. We included all TB patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort and a sample of patients from the national TB registry. We identified molecular clusters by spoligotyping and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) analysis and used weighted logistic regression adjusted for age and sex to identify risk factors for clustering, taking sampling proportions into account. In total, we analyzed 520 TB cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2008; 401 were foreign born, and 113 were HIV coinfected. The Euro-American M. tuberculosis lineage dominated throughout the study period (378 strains; 72.7%), with no evidence for another lineage, such as the Beijing genotype, emerging. We identified 35 molecular clusters with 90 patients, indicating recent transmission; 31 clusters involved foreign-born patients, and 15 involved HIV-infected patients. Birth origin was not associated with clustering (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 3.43; P = 0.25, comparing Swiss-born with foreign-born patients), but clustering was reduced in HIV-infected patients (aOR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.93; P = 0.030). Cavitary disease, male sex, and younger age were all associated with molecular clustering. In conclusion, most TB patients in Switzerland were foreign born, but transmission of M. tuberculosis was not more common among immigrants and was reduced in HIV-infected patients followed up in the national HIV cohort study. Continued access to health services and clinical follow-up will be essential to control TB in this population.