The challenge of post-implementation surveillance for novel meningococcal vaccines

Recent approaches in computational modelling for controlling pathogen threats

In this review, we assess the status of computational modelling of pathogens. We focus on three disparate but interlinked research areas that produce models with very different spatial and temporal scope. First, we examine antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Many mechanisms of AMR are not well understood. As a result, it is hard to measure the current incidence of AMR, predict the future incidence, and design strategies to preserve existing antibiotic effectiveness. Next, we look at how to choose the finite number of bacterial strains that can be included in a vaccine. To do this, we need to understand what happens to vaccine and non-vaccine strains after vaccination programmes. Finally, we look at within-host modelling of antibody dynamics. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic produced huge amounts of antibody data, prompting improvements in this area of modelling. We finish by discussing the challenges that persist in understanding these complex biological systems.

Product review on the IMD serogroup B vaccine Bexsero®

Bexsero® is a multicomponent vaccine composed of four major proteins of Neisseria meningitidis: the fHbp, NHBA, NadA and PorA. This vaccine was licensed against invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) due to serogroup B isolates. When administered alone, Bexsero® showed a safety profile similar to other childhood vaccines. It provides an excellent immunogenicity but that requires booster doses in infants and young children. Although the vaccine does not seem to impact on acquisition of carriage of serogroup B isolates, it confers protection against isolates of serogroup B harboring distinct but cross-reactive variants of fHbp, NadA and NHBA. Primary vaccination schemes in infancy underwent a rapid increase after a toddler booster suggesting an anamnestic response and the establishment of a memory response. As Bexsero® targets sub-capsular proteins that can be conserved regardless the capsule, the vaccine can be effective against non-B isolates such as isolates of serogroups W and X.

Cumulative annual coverage of meningococcal B vaccination in Australian general practice for three at-risk groups, 2014 to 2019

Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B (MenB) is the most common cause of meningococcal disease in adolescents and young adults. In Australia, MenB vaccination has been available through private prescription since 2014 and has been recommended for at-risk groups including adolescents, young adults who smoke and people medically at risk. For each of these at-risk groups, we estimated cumulative annual coverage of MenB vaccination between 2014 and 2019. We also evaluated factors associated with vaccination coverage in 2019. Our analyses used electronic health records in the national MedicineInsight database for people regularly attending general practices. Cumulative vaccination coverage increased among the at-risk groups between 2014 and 2019: from 0.09% to 1.65% for adolescents, from 0.01% to 0.15% for young adults who smoke, and from 0.35% to 12.09% for people medically at risk. However, vaccination coverage in 2019 remained very low across these groups. Data sparsity prevented the evaluation of factors associated with vaccination coverage for smokers. We observed variation in the relative risk of being vaccinated by age, sex, socioeconomic and clinical factors for adolescents and people medically at risk. Still, the absolute magnitude of coverage was low across all subgroups examined, and indicates a need for strategies to increase vaccination uptake among at-risk groups irrespective of patient and practice characteristics. Our study provides baseline data for monitoring menB vaccination uptake among recommended groups in light of limited national data, especially for medically at-risk groups.

Genomic Characterization of Invasive Meningococcal Serogroup B Isolates and Estimation of 4CMenB Vaccine Coverage in Finland

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) caused by Neisseria meningitidis is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. In Finland, the incidence rate of IMD is low, with meningococcal serogroup B (MenB) accounting for around one-third of IMD cases annually. The aim of this study was to investigate the genetic variability of invasive MenB isolates collected in Finland between 2010 and 2017 (n = 81), including the genes encoding the 4-component MenB vaccine (4CMenB; Bexsero; GSK) antigens and their promoters, and to evaluate the 4CMenB potential coverage. Whole-genome sequencing was performed. The meningococcal antigen typing system (MATS) was used to characterize MenB isolates and predict the potential coverage of 4CMenB. MATS was complemented by genetic MATS (gMATS) through association of antigen genotyping and phenotypic MATS results. Multilocus sequence typing revealed predominance of the ST-41/44 clonal complex among which sequence type (ST)-303 was the most common and was predicted to be covered by 4CMenB. Of the 4 major vaccine antigens, the factor H-binding protein variant 1, neisserial heparin binding antigen peptide 2, and the PorA P1.4 antigen were predominant, whereas Neisseria adhesin A was present in only 4% of the 81 isolates. MATS and gMATS 4CMenB strain coverage predictions were 78% and 86%, respectively, in a subpanel of 60 isolates collected during 2010 to 2014, with a gMATS prediction of 84% for all 81 isolates. The results suggest that 4CMenB could reduce the burden of IMD in Finland and that gMATS could be applied to monitor vaccine strain coverage and predict vaccine effectiveness.IMPORTANCE 4CMenB is a 4-component vaccine used against invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) caused by Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B (MenB). We investigated the genetic variability of MenB in Finland and evaluated 4CMenB strain coverage by 2 different methods: MATS (meningococcal antigen typing system) and gMATS (genetic MATS). In a set of MenB isolates, 78% (MATS) and 86% (gMATS) were predicted as covered by 4CMenB, suggesting that use of 4CMenB would help reduce IMD incidence in Finland. MATS has been used in 13 countries worldwide, generating information on phenotypic characteristics that could infer protection by 4CMenB. Based on these data and genetic information, gMATS coverage predictions can be made. gMATS predicts coverage consistent with MATS for about 94% of tested strains. Unlike MATS, gMATS does not require live isolates, thus allowing the analysis also of noncultivable strains, making the coverage predictions more accurate. Therefore, gMATS can replace MATS to assess 4CMenB coverage, including in regions with no prior MATS data.

Genetic Meningococcal Antigen Typing System (gMATS): A genotyping tool that predicts 4CMenB strain coverage worldwide

BACKGROUND

The Meningococcal Antigen Typing System (MATS) was developed to identify meningococcus group B strains with a high likelihood of being covered by the 4CMenB vaccine, but is limited by the requirement for viable isolates from culture-confirmed cases. We examined if antigen genotyping could complement MATS in predicting strain coverage by the 4CMenB vaccine.

METHODS

From a panel of 3912 MATS-typed invasive meningococcal disease isolates collected in England and Wales in 2007-2008, 2014-2015 and 2015-2016, and in 16 other countries in 2000-2015, 3481 isolates were also characterized by antigen genotyping. Individual associations between antigen genotypes and MATS coverage for each 4CMenB component were used to define a genetic MATS (gMATS). gMATS estimates were compared with England and Wales human complement serum bactericidal assay (hSBA) data and vaccine effectiveness (VE) data from England.

RESULTS

Overall, 81% of the strain panel had genetically predictable MATS coverage, with 92% accuracy and highly concordant results across national panels (Lin's accuracy coefficient, 0.98; root-mean-square deviation, 6%). England and Wales strain coverage estimates were 72-73% by genotyping (66-73% by MATS), underestimating hSBA values after four vaccine doses (88%) and VE after two doses (83%). The gMATS predicted strain coverage in other countries was 58-88%.

CONCLUSIONS

gMATS can replace MATS in predicting 4CMenB strain coverage in four out of five cases, without requiring a cultivable isolate, and is open to further improvement. Both methods underestimated VE in England. Strain coverage predictions in other countries matched or exceeded England and Wales estimates.

Meningococcal Antigen Typing System (MATS)-Based Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup B Coverage Prediction for the MenB-4C Vaccine in the United States

Neisseria meningitidis is the most common cause of bacterial meningitis in children and young adults worldwide. A 4-component vaccine against N. meningitidis serogroup B (MenB) disease (MenB-4C [Bexsero]; GSK) combining factor H binding protein (fHBP), neisserial heparin binding protein (NHBA), neisserial adhesin A (NadA), and PorA-containing outer membrane vesicles was recently approved for use in the United States and other countries worldwide. Because the public health impact of MenB-4C in the United States is unclear, we used the meningococcal antigen typing system (MATS) to assess the strain coverage in a panel of strains representative of serogroup B (NmB) disease in the United States. MATS data correlate with killing in the human complement serum bactericidal assay (hSBA) and predict the susceptibility of NmB strains to killing in the hSBA, the accepted correlate of protection for MenB-4C vaccine. A panel of 442 NmB United States clinical isolates (collected in 2000 to 2008) whose data were down weighted with respect to the Oregon outbreak was selected from the Active Bacterial Core Surveillance (ABCs; CDC, Atlanta, GA) laboratory. MATS results examined to determine strain coverage were linked to multilocus sequence typing and antigen sequence data. MATS predicted that 91% (95% confidence interval [CI₉₅], 72% to 96%) of the NmB strains causing disease in the United States would be covered by the MenB-4C vaccine, with the estimated coverage ranging from 88% to 97% by year with no detectable temporal trend. More than half of the covered strains could be targeted by two or more antigens. NHBA conferred coverage to 83% (CI₉₅, 45% to 93%) of the strains, followed by factor H-binding protein (fHbp), which conferred coverage to 53% (CI₉₅, 46% to 57%); PorA, which conferred coverage to 5.9%; and NadA, which conferred coverage to 2.5% (CI₉₅, 1.1% to 5.2%). Two major clonal complexes (CC32 and CC41/44) had 99% strain coverage. The most frequent MATS phenotypes (39%) were fHbp and NHBA double positives. MATS predicts over 90% MenB-4C strain coverage in the United States, and the prediction is stable in time and consistent among bacterial genotypes. IMPORTANCE The meningococcal antigen typing system (MATS) is an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-based system that assesses the levels of expression and immune reactivity of the three recombinant MenB-4C antigens and, in conjunction with PorA variable 2 (VR2) sequencing, provides an estimate of the susceptibility of NmB isolates to killing by MenB-4C-induced antibodies. MATS assays or similar antigen phenotype analyses assume importance under conditions in which analyses of vaccine coverage predictions are not feasible with existing strategies, including large efficacy trials or functional antibody screening of an exhaustive strain panel. MATS screening of a panel of NmB U.S. isolates (n = 442) predicts high MenB-4C vaccine coverage in the United States.

Persistence of bactericidal antibodies to 5 years of age after immunization with serogroup B meningococcal vaccines at 6, 8, 12 and 40 months of age

BACKGROUND

A serogroup B meningococcal vaccine (4CMenB) has been licensed by the European commission for use in various infant schedules. However, data are limited on persistence of serum bactericidal antibodies (SBA), which is necessary to inform cost-effectiveness analysis.

METHODS

Sera were obtained from 3 groups of 5-year-old children previously immunized at 6, 8, 12 and 40 months with either 4CMenB or rMenB (which lacks the outer membrane vesicle of 4CMenB) or at 40 and 42 months with 4CMenB only. Forty-nine control children were also recruited and blood obtained before and after 2 doses of 4CMenB at 60 and 62 months of age. Sera were tested for SBA to meningococcal B reference strains.

RESULTS

At 5 years of age, 67% of those receiving 4CMenB in infancy had SBA titers ≥1:4 for strain 44/76, 100% for 5/99, 17% for NZ98/254 and 45% for M10713. Results for rMenB recipients varied from 0 (NZ98/254) to 100% (5/99). Of those immunized with 4CMenB at 40 and 42 months, 38% had SBA titers ≥1:4 at age 5 for 44/76, 100% for 5/99, 0% (NZ98/254) and 83% (M10713). Among controls, SBA titers were ≥1:4 in 4% (H44/76, 5/99), 0% (NZ98/254) and 67% (M10713) at baseline, increasing to 100% (H44/76 and 5/99), 89% (NZ98/254) and 97% (M10713) postimmunization.

CONCLUSION

The variable rates of waning of antibody to the 4 components of 4CMenB complicates estimates of duration of protection and should be taken into account in cost-effectiveness analyses. A 2-dose schedule of 4CMenB in 5-year-old children was immunogenic.

A vaccine against serogroup B Neisseria meningitidis: dealing with uncertainty

Neisseria meningitidis is an important cause of invasive bacterial infection in children worldwide. Although serogroup C meningococcal disease has all but disappeared in the past decade as a direct result of immunisation programmes in Europe, Canada, and Australia, meningitis and septicaemia caused by serogroup B meningococci remain uncontrolled. A vaccine (4CMenB) has now been licensed for use in the European Union, comprising three immunogenic antigens (identified with use of reverse vaccinology) combined with bacterial outer-membrane vesicles. The vaccine has the potential to reduce mortality and morbidity associated with serogroup B meningococci infections, but uncertainty remains about the breadth of protection the vaccine might induce against the diverse serogroup B meningococci strains that cause disease. We discuss drawbacks in the techniques used to estimate coverage and potential efficacy of the vaccine, and their effects on estimates of cost-effectiveness, both with and without herd immunity. For parents, and clinicians treating individual patients, the predicted benefits of vaccination outweigh existing uncertainties if any cases can be prevented, but future use of the vaccine must be followed by rigorous post-implementation surveillance to reassess its value to health systems with directly recorded epidemiological data.

Neisseria meningitidis B vaccines: recent advances and possible immunization policies

Since the development of the first-generation vaccines based on outer membrane vesicles (OMV), which were able to contain strain-specific epidemics, but were not suitable for universal use, enormous steps forward in the prevention of Neisseria meningitidis B have been made. The first multicomponent vaccine, Bexsero(®), has recently been authorized for use; other vaccines, bivalent rLP2086 and next-generation OMV vaccines, are under development. The new vaccines may substantially contribute to reducing invasive bacterial infections as they could cover most Neisseria meningitidis B strains. Moreover, other potentially effective serogroup B vaccine candidates are being studied in preclinical settings. It is therefore appropriate to review what has recently been achieved in the prevention of disease caused by serogroup B.

The Long Road to an Effective Vaccine for Meningococcus Group B (MenB)

Neisseria meningitidis infection can cause life-threatening meningitis and meningococcal septicaemia. Over the past 40 years, vaccines against most of the main meningococcal serogroups have offered increasingly good protection from disease, with one major exception in the developed world: serogroup B meningococcus (MenB). In the United States, MenB accounts for about a quarter of cases of meningococcal meningitis, with the bulk of the rest caused by meningococcus serogroups C (MenC) and Y (MenY). In the UK, where a vaccine against MenC is widely used, MenB is now responsible for nearly 90% of cases of invasive meningococcal disease. Recent attempts to create a universal MenB vaccine have been thwarted by the variability of the surface proteins of MenB and by the similarity of the MenB capsule to human glycoproteins. This review discusses current meningococcal vaccine strategies and their limitations with regard to MenB, and examines a promising new strategy for the rational design of a MenB vaccine. Thanks to a fusion of a rational reverse genetics approach and a membrane vesicle approach, a MenB vaccine, 4CMenB (Bexsero(®)), has finally gained regulatory approval in Europe and could be in clinical use by the end of 2013.

Bactericidal antibody against a representative epidemiological meningococcal serogroup B panel confirms that MATS underestimates 4CMenB vaccine strain coverage

BACKGROUND

4CMenB (Bexsero), a vaccine developed against invasive meningococcal disease caused by capsular group B strains (MenB), was recently licensed for use by the European Medicines Agency. Assessment of 4CMenB strain coverage in specific epidemiologic settings is of primary importance to predict vaccination impact on the burden of disease. The Meningococcal Antigen Typing System (MATS) was developed to predict 4CMenB strain coverage, using serum bactericidal antibody assay with human complement (hSBA) data from a diverse panel of strains not representative of any specific epidemiology.

OBJECTIVE

To experimentally validate the accuracy of MATS-based predictions against strains representative of a specific epidemiologic setting.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used a stratified sampling method to identify a representative sample from all MenB disease isolates collected from England and Wales in 2007-2008, tested the strains in the hSBA assay with pooled sera from infant and adolescent vaccinees, and compared these results with MATS. MATS predictions and hSBA results were significantly associated (P=0.022). MATS predicted coverage of 70% (95% CI, 55-85%) was largely confirmed by 88% killing in the hSBA (95% CI, 72-95%). MATS had 78% accuracy and 96% positive predictive value against hSBA.

CONCLUSION

MATS is a conservative predictor of strain coverage by the 4CMenB vaccine in infants and adolescents.

Predicted strain coverage of a meningococcal multicomponent vaccine (4CMenB) in Europe: a qualitative and quantitative assessment

BACKGROUND

A novel multicomponent vaccine against meningococcal capsular group B (MenB) disease contains four major components: factor-H-binding protein, neisserial heparin binding antigen, neisserial adhesin A, and outer-membrane vesicles derived from the strain NZ98/254. Because the public health effect of the vaccine, 4CMenB (Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics, Siena, Italy), is unclear, we assessed the predicted strain coverage in Europe.

METHODS

We assessed invasive MenB strains isolated mainly in the most recent full epidemiological year in England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy, and Norway. Meningococcal antigen typing system (MATS) results were linked to multilocus sequence typing and antigen sequence data. To investigate whether generalisation of coverage applied to the rest of Europe, we also assessed isolates from the Czech Republic and Spain.

FINDINGS

1052 strains collected from July, 2007, to June, 2008, were assessed from England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy, and Norway. All MenB strains contained at least one gene encoding a major antigen in the vaccine. MATS predicted that 78% of all MenB strains would be killed by postvaccination sera (95% CI 63-90, range of point estimates 73-87% in individual country panels). Half of all strains and 64% of covered strains could be targeted by bactericidal antibodies against more than one vaccine antigen. Results for the 108 isolates from the Czech Republic and 300 from Spain were consistent with those for the other countries.

INTERPRETATION

MATS analysis showed that a multicomponent vaccine could protect against a substantial proportion of invasive MenB strains isolated in Europe. Monitoring of antigen expression, however, will be needed in the future.

FUNDING

Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics.

An expanded age range for meningococcal meningitis: molecular diagnostic evidence from population-based surveillance in Asia

Background

To understand epidemiologic patterns of meningococcal disease in Asia, we performed a retrospective molecular analysis of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens collected in prospective surveillance among children aged < 5 years of age in China, South Korea, and Vietnam.

Methods

A total of 295 isolates and 2,302 CSFs were tested by a meningococcal species- and serogroup-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay targeting the Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) ctrA gene. Multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) was performed in Nm gene amplification analysis and incidence rates for meningococcal meningitis were estimated.

Results

Among 295 isolates tested, 10 specimens from Vietnam were confirmed as serogroup B and all were Sequence Type (ST) 1576 by MLST. Among the 2,032 CSF specimen tested, 284 (14%) were confirmed by PCR (ctrA gene), including 67 (23.6%) from China, 92 (32.4%) from Korea, and 125 (44.0%) from Vietnam. Neonates and infants aged < 6 months of age accounted for more than 50% of Nm-PCR positive CSF. Two CSF specimens from Vietnam were identified as serogroup B using MLST. In addition, 44 specimens underwent sequencing to confirm meningococcal serogroup; of these, 21 (48%) were serogroup C, 12 (27%) were serogroup X, 9 (20%) were serogroup Y and 2 (5%) were serogroup B. The incidence rates of meningococcal meningitis among children < 5 years of age was highest in Vietnam (7.4/100,000 [95% CI, 3.6—15.3] followed by Korea (6.8/100,000 [95% CI, 3.5-13.5] and China (2.1/100,000) [95% CI, 0.7-6.2]).

Conclusions

These results suggest that there is a previously undetected, yet substantial burden of meningococcal meningitis among infants and young children. Standardized, sensitive and specific molecular diagnostic assays with Nm serogrouping capacity are needed throughout Asia to understand the true burden of N. meningitidis disease.

Interlaboratory standardization of the sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay designed for MATS, a rapid, reproducible method for estimating the strain coverage of investigational vaccines

The meningococcal antigen typing system (MATS) sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was designed to measure the immunologic cross-reactivity and quantity of antigens in target strains of a pathogen. It was first used to measure the factor H-binding protein (fHbp), neisserial adhesin A (NadA), and neisserial heparin-binding antigen (NHBA) content of serogroup B meningococcal (MenB) isolates relative to a reference strain, or "relative potency" (RP). With the PorA genotype, the RPs were then used to assess strain coverage by 4CMenB, a multicomponent MenB vaccine. In preliminary studies, MATS accurately predicted killing in the serum bactericidal assay using human complement, an accepted correlate of protection for meningococcal vaccines. A study across seven laboratories assessed the reproducibility of RPs for fHbp, NadA, and NHBA and established qualification parameters for new laboratories. RPs were determined in replicate for 17 MenB reference strains at laboratories A to G. The reproducibility of RPs among laboratories and against consensus values across laboratories was evaluated using a mixed-model analysis of variance. Interlaboratory agreement was very good; the Pearson correlation coefficients, coefficients of accuracy, and concordance correlation coefficients exceeded 99%. The summary measures of reproducibility, expressed as between-laboratory coefficients of variation, were 7.85% (fHbp), 16.51% (NadA), and 12.60% (NHBA). The overall within-laboratory measures of variation adjusted for strain and laboratory were 19.8% (fHbp), 28.8% (NHBA), and 38.3% (NadA). The MATS ELISA was successfully transferred to six laboratories, and a further laboratory was successfully qualified.