Mathematical models to assess strategies for the control of gastrointestinal roundworms in cattle 2. Validation

A simulation model to investigate interactions between first season grazing calves and Ostertagia ostertagi

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A deterministic model to address calf—O. ostertagi interactions was developed.

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The model predicts performance and FEC for different infection intensities.

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It performs well when validated against published data.

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It does not account for calf genotypic variation.

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A future aim is to develop a stochastic model to account for between host variation.

A dynamic, deterministic model was developed to investigate the consequences of parasitism with Ostertagia ostertagi, the most prevalent and economically important gastrointestinal parasite of cattle in temperate regions. Interactions between host and parasite were considered to predict the level of parasitism and performance of an infected calf. Key model inputs included calf intrinsic growth rate, feed quality and mode and level of infection. The effects of these varied inputs were simulated on a daily basis for key parasitological (worm burden, total egg output and faecal egg count) and performance outputs (feed intake and bodyweight) over a 6 month grazing period. Data from published literature were used to parameterise the model and its sensitivity was tested for uncertain parameters by a Latin hypercube sensitivity design. For the latter each parameter tested was subject to a 20% coefficient of variation. The model parasitological outputs were most sensitive to the immune rate parameters that affected overall worm burdens. The model predicted the expected larger worm burdens along with disproportionately greater body weight losses with increasing daily infection levels. The model was validated against published literature using graphical and statistical comparisons. Its predictions were quantitatively consistent with the parasitological outputs of published experiments in which calves were subjected to different infection levels. The consequences of model weaknesses are discussed and point towards model improvements. Future work should focus on developing a stochastic model to account for calf variation in performance and immune response; this will ultimately be used to test the effectiveness of different parasite control strategies in naturally infected calf populations.

The parasitic phase of Ostertagia ostertagi: quantification of the main life history traits through systematic review and meta-analysis

Predictive models of parasite life cycles increase our understanding of how parasite epidemiology is influenced by global changes and can be used to support decisions for more targeted worm control. Estimates of parasite population dynamics are needed to parameterize such models. The aim of this study was to quantify the main life history traits of Ostertagia ostertagi, economically the most important nematode of cattle in temperate regions. The main parameters determining parasite density during the parasitic phase of O. ostertagi are (i) the larval establishment rate, (ii) hypobiosis rate, (iii) adult mortality and (iv) female fecundity (number of eggs laid per day per female). A systematic review was performed covering studies from 1962 to 2007, in which helminth-naïve calves were artificially infected with O. ostertagi. The database was further extended with results of unpublished trials conducted at the Laboratory for Parasitology of Ghent University, Belgium. Overall inverse variance weighted estimates were computed for each of the traits through random effects models. An average establishment rate (±S.E.) of 0.269±0.022 was calculated based on data of 27 studies (46 experiments). The establishment rate declined when infection dose increased and was lower in younger animals. An average proportion of larvae entering hypobiosis (±S.E.) of 0.041 (±0.009) was calculated based on 27 studies (54 experiments). The proportion of ingested larvae that went into hypobiosis was higher in animals that received concomitant infections with nematode species other than O. ostertagi (mixed infections). An average daily adult mortality (±S.E.) of 0.028 (±0.002) was computed based on data from 28 studies (70 experiments). Adult mortality was positively correlated with infection dose. A daily fecundity (±S.E.) of 284 (±45) eggs per female was found based on nine studies (10 experiments). The average female sex ratio of O. ostertagi based on individual animal data (n=75) from six different studies was estimated to be 0.55. We believe that this systematic review is the first to summarise the available data on the main life history traits of the parasitic phase of O. ostertagi. In conclusion, this meta-analysis provides novel estimates for the parameterization of life cycle-based transmission models, explicitly reports measures of variance around these estimates, gives evidence for density dependence of larval establishment and adult mortality, shows that host age affects larval establishment and, to our knowledge, provides the first evidence for O. ostertagi of a female-biased sex ratio.