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Chen HY, Möller H, Senserrick TM, Rogers KD, Cullen P, Ivers RQ. Young drivers' early access to their own car and crash risk into early adulthood: Findings from the DRIVE study. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2024; 199:107516. [PMID: 38401242 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107516] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2022] [Revised: 12/04/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 02/26/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Car ownership at early licensure for young drivers has been identified as a crash risk factor, but for how long this risk persists is unknown. This study examined crash hazard rates between young drivers with their own vehicle and those who shared a family vehicle at early licensure over 13 years. METHODS The DRIVE study, a 2003/04 survey of 20,806 young novice drivers in New South Wales, Australia was used to link to police crash, hospital and death records up to 2016. The first police-reported crash and crash resulting in hospitalisation/death was modelled via flexible parametric survival analysis by type of vehicle access at baseline (own vs. shared family vehicle). RESULTS After adjusting for covariates, drivers with their own vehicle at early licensure had an almost 30 % increased hazard rate for any crash after one year (95 % CI:1.16-1.42) compared with those who only had access to a family car and this attenuated but remained significantly higher until year 7 (HR: 1.1, 95 % CI: >1.00-1.20). For crashes resulting in hospitalisation or death, an almost 15-times higher hazard (95 % CI: 1.40-158.17) was observed at the start of follow up, remaining 50 % to year 3 (95 % CI:1.01-2.18). CONCLUSIONS Parents and young drivers should be aware of the increased risks involved in car ownership at early licensure. Development of poorer driving habits has been associated with less parental monitoring at this time. Graduated Driving Licensing educators, researchers and stakeholders should seek to address this and to identify improved safety management options.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huei-Yang Chen
- Evidence Directorate, Agency for Clinical Innovation, Sydney, NSW 2065, Australia.
| | - Holger Möller
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, NSW 2042, Australia.
| | - Teresa M Senserrick
- Western Australian Centre for Road Safety Research, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia.
| | - Kris D Rogers
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, NSW 2042, Australia; Graduate School of Health, The University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
| | - Patricia Cullen
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, NSW 2042, Australia; Ngarruwan Ngadju: First Peoples Health and Wellbeing Research Centre, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia.
| | - Rebecca Q Ivers
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, NSW 2042, Australia.
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Fisher DL, Agrawal R, Divekar G, Hamid MA, Krishnan A, Mehranian H, Muttart J, Pradhan A, Roberts S, Romoser M, Samuel S, Vlakveld W, Yamani Y, Young J, Zafian T, Zhang L. Novice driver crashes: The relation between putative causal factors, countermeasures, real world implementations, and policy - A case study in simple, scalable solutions. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2024; 198:107397. [PMID: 38271896 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2023.107397] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Revised: 09/17/2023] [Accepted: 11/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Novice drivers are at a greatly inflated risk of crashing. This led in the 20th century to numerous attempts to develop training programs that could reduce their crash risk. Yet, none proved effective. Novice drivers were largely considered careless, not clueless. This article is a case study in the United States of how a better understanding of the causes of novice driver crashes led to training countermeasures targeting teen driving behaviors with known associations with crashes. These effects on behaviors were large enough and long-lasting enough to convince insurance companies to develop training programs that they offered around the country to teen drivers. The success of the training programs at reducing the frequency of behaviors linked to crashes also led to several large-scale evaluations of the effect of the training programs on actual crashes. A reduction in crashes was observed. The cumulative effect has now led to state driver licensing agencies considering as a matter of policy both to include items testing the behaviors linked to crashes on licensing exams and to require training on safety critical behaviors. The effort has been ongoing for over a quarter century and is continuing. The case study highlights the critical elements that made it possible to move from a paradigm shift in the understanding of crash causes to the development and evaluation of crash countermeasures, to the implementation of those crash countermeasures, and to subsequent policy changes at the state and federal level. Key among these elements is the development of simple, scalable solutions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Donald L Fisher
- University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003, United States; Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA 02142, United States.
| | | | | | - Malek Abdul Hamid
- Department of Manufacturing and Materials Engineering, International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | | | | | - Jeff Muttart
- Driver Research Institute, East Hampton, CT, USA
| | - Anuj Pradhan
- University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003, United States
| | - Shannon Roberts
- University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003, United States
| | | | - Siby Samuel
- University of Waterloo, College of Enigneering, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Yusuke Yamani
- Old Dominion University, Department of Psychology, Norfolk, VA, USA
| | - Jared Young
- Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA 02142, United States
| | - Tracy Zafian
- University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003, United States
| | - Lisa Zhang
- Institute of Human Factors and Ergonomics, College of Mechatronics and Control Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, PR China
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Ciranka S, Hertwig R. Environmental statistics and experience shape risk-taking across adolescence. Trends Cogn Sci 2023; 27:1123-1134. [PMID: 37739921 DOI: 10.1016/j.tics.2023.08.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2023] [Revised: 08/29/2023] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/24/2023]
Abstract
Adolescents are often portrayed as reckless risk-takers because of their immature brains. Recent research has cast doubt on this portrayal, identifying the environment as a moderator of risk-taking. However, the key features of environments that drive risk-taking behaviors are often underspecified. We call for greater attention to the environment by drawing on research showing that its statistical structure impacts future risk-taking as people learn from outcomes they experience after taking a risk. This opinion shows that adolescents are unlikely to experience harm from many risks because environmental statistics are skewed and favor safe experiences. Environmental statistics and experience suggest entry points for policy interventions by carefully timing risk warnings and leveraging peers' potential to shape the statistics of rewarding experiences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon Ciranka
- Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
| | - Ralph Hertwig
- Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany
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Senserrick T, Möller H, Boufous S, Stevenson M, Williamson A, Patton G, McLean R, Chen HY, Cullen P, Woodward M, Ivers R. Learning With a Supervisor Who has Traffic Offences and Young Driver Crashes: The DRIVE Study 13-Year Follow-Up. J Adolesc Health 2023; 73:859-865. [PMID: 37642621 DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2023.06.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2022] [Revised: 06/20/2023] [Accepted: 06/23/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Young learner drivers commonly must record substantial supervised practice driving before independent licensure. Supervisory driver requirements can be limited or highly regulated, yet research is lacking on the effectiveness of different approaches. The current objective was to explore whether young drivers who were mostly supervised by someone who they perceived had traffic offences versus no offences had different crash records over a period of 13 years postlicensing. METHODS DRIVE is an Australian prospective cohort study of more than 20,000 drivers who were aged 17-24 years and newly licensed during 2003-2004. They completed detailed baseline questionnaires, including whether the person they identified as supervising their learner driving the most had perceived traffic offences in the past 12 months. Responses were linked to their state crash, hospitalization, and death records to 2016. A parametric survival model was created to calculate hazard ratios of time to crash for those reporting that their supervisor had 0 versus 1 and 0 versus 2+ perceived offences, adjusting for the participants' prior crash history and other covariates. RESULTS After adjusting for covariates, 369 participants reporting supervisory drivers with 2+ perceived offences, compared to 15,451 participants reporting no such offences, had up to 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.10-2.53 at 6 months) times the rate of any crash for the first 2.5 years and up to 2.01 (95% confidence interval 1.26-3.19 at 3.5 years) times the rate of crashes resulting in injury for 5.5 years. DISCUSSION Although overall supervision by a driver with two or more perceived offences was low, further attention is needed to ensure improved supervised driving experiences, with mentoring programs and professional instructor partnerships worthy of exploration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Teresa Senserrick
- Western Australian Centre for Road Safety Research, School of Psychological Science, The University of Western Australia, Western Australia, Australia; Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland, School of Psychology and Counselling, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.
| | - Holger Möller
- School of Population Health, The University of New South Wales (UNSW Sydney), Kensington, New South Wales, Australia; The George Institute for Global Health, The University of New South Wales (UNSW Sydney), Kensington, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Soufiane Boufous
- Transport and Road Safety Research, School of Aviation, The University of New South Wales (UNSW Sydney), Kensington, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Mark Stevenson
- Transport Health and Urban Design Research Lab, Melbourne School of Design, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ann Williamson
- Transport and Road Safety Research, School of Aviation, The University of New South Wales (UNSW Sydney), Kensington, New South Wales, Australia
| | - George Patton
- Centre for Adolescent Development, The Royal Children's Hospital, Murdoch Children's Research Institute and Department of Paediatrics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia
| | - Rebecca McLean
- Department of Population Health, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Huei-Yang Chen
- Evidence, Agency for Clinical Innovation, St Leonards, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Patricia Cullen
- School of Population Health, The University of New South Wales (UNSW Sydney), Kensington, New South Wales, Australia; The George Institute for Global Health, The University of New South Wales (UNSW Sydney), Kensington, New South Wales, Australia; Ngarruwan Ngadju: First Peoples Health and Wellbeing Research Centre, School of Medical, Indigenous and Health Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Mark Woodward
- The George Institute for Global Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rebecca Ivers
- School of Population Health, The University of New South Wales (UNSW Sydney), Kensington, New South Wales, Australia; The George Institute for Global Health, The University of New South Wales (UNSW Sydney), Kensington, New South Wales, Australia
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Cullen P, Mőller H, Baffsky R, Martiniuk A, Senserrick T, Rogers K, Woodward M, Stevenson MR, McLean R, Sawyer S, Patton G, Ivers RQ. Self-harm in adolescence and risk of crash: a 13-year cohort study of novice drivers in New South Wales, Australia. Inj Prev 2023; 29:302-308. [PMID: 36813554 PMCID: PMC10423516 DOI: 10.1136/ip-2022-044807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2022] [Accepted: 01/20/2023] [Indexed: 02/24/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Self-harm and suicide are leading causes of morbidity and death for young people, worldwide. Previous research has identified self-harm is a risk factor for vehicle crashes, however, there is a lack of long-term crash data post licensing that investigates this relationship. We aimed to determine whether adolescent self-harm persists as crash risk factor in adulthood. METHODS We followed 20 806 newly licensed adolescent and young adult drivers in the DRIVE prospective cohort for 13 years to examine whether self-harm was a risk factor for vehicle crashes. The association between self-harm and crash was analysed using cumulative incidence curves investigating time to first crash and quantified using negative binominal regression models adjusted for driver demographics and conventional crash risk factors. RESULTS Adolescents who reported self-harm at baseline were at increased risk of crashes 13 years later than those reporting no self-harm (relative risk (RR) 1.29: 95% CI 1.14 to 1.47). This risk remained after controlling for driver experience, demographic characteristics and known risk factors for crashes, including alcohol use and risk taking behaviour (RR 1.23: 95% CI 1.08 to 1.39). Sensation seeking had an additive effect on the association between self-harm and single-vehicle crashes (relative excess risk due to interaction 0.87: 95% CI 0.07 to 1.67), but not for other types of crashes. DISCUSSION Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that self-harm during adolescence predicts a range of poorer health outcomes, including motor vehicle crash risks that warrant further investigation and consideration in road safety interventions. Complex interventions addressing self-harm in adolescence, as well as road safety and substance use, are critical for preventing health harming behaviours across the life course.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia Cullen
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Ngarruwan Ngadju: First Peoples Health and Wellbeing Research Centre, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Holger Mőller
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Rachel Baffsky
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Alexandra Martiniuk
- The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Teresa Senserrick
- Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Kris Rogers
- The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Faculty of Health, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Mark Woodward
- The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- The George Institute for Global Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Mark R Stevenson
- Transport Health and Urban Design Research Hub, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rebecca McLean
- Department of Population Health, University of Otago Christchurch, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Susan Sawyer
- Department of Pediatrics, The University of Melbourne Faculty of Medicine Dentistry and Health Sciences, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Adolescent Health, The Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - George Patton
- Department of Pediatrics, The University of Melbourne Faculty of Medicine Dentistry and Health Sciences, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Adolescent Health, The Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rebecca Q Ivers
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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