OC-0487: EMT signatures as a prognostic marker for metastasis in HPV-negative HNSCC

Biological Determinants of Chemo-Radiotherapy Response in HPV-Negative Head and Neck Cancer: A Multicentric External Validation

Purpose: Tumor markers that are related to hypoxia, proliferation, DNA damage repair and stem cell-ness, have a prognostic value in advanced stage HNSCC patients when assessed individually. Here we aimed to evaluate and validate this in a multifactorial context and assess interrelation and the combined role of these biological factors in determining chemo-radiotherapy response in HPV-negative advanced HNSCC. Methods: RNA sequencing data of pre-treatment biopsy material from 197 HPV-negative advanced stage HNSCC patients treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy was analyzed. Biological parameter scores were assigned to patient samples using previously generated and described gene expression signatures. Locoregional control rates were used to assess the role of these biological parameters in radiation response and compared to distant metastasis data. Biological factors were ranked according to their clinical impact using bootstrapping methods and multivariate Cox regression analyses that included clinical variables. Multivariate Cox regression analyses comprising all biological variables were used to define their relative role among all factors when combined. Results: Only few biomarker scores correlate with each other, underscoring their independence. The different biological factors do not correlate or cluster, except for the two stem cell markers CD44 and SLC3A2 (r = 0.4, p < 0.001) and acute hypoxia prediction scores which correlated with T-cell infiltration score, CD8⁺ T cell abundance and proliferation scores (r = 0.52, 0.56, and 0.6, respectively with p < 0.001). Locoregional control association analyses revealed that chronic (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 3.9) and acute hypoxia (HR = 1.9), followed by stem cell-ness (CD44/SLC3A2; HR = 2.2/2.3), were the strongest and most robust determinants of radiation response. Furthermore, multivariable analysis, considering other biological and clinical factors, reveal a significant role for EGFR expression (HR = 2.9, p < 0.05) and T-cell infiltration (CD8⁺T-cells: HR = 2.2, p < 0.05; CD8⁺T-cells/Treg: HR = 2.6, p < 0.01) signatures in locoregional control of chemoradiotherapy-treated HNSCC. Conclusion: Tumor acute and chronic hypoxia, stem cell-ness, and CD8⁺ T-cell parameters are relevant and largely independent biological factors that together contribute to locoregional control. The combined analyses illustrate the additive value of multifactorial analyses and support a role for EGFR expression analysis and immune cell markers in addition to previously validated biomarkers. This external validation underscores the relevance of biological factors in determining chemoradiotherapy outcome in HNSCC.

Acute Hypoxia Profile is a Stronger Prognostic Factor than Chronic Hypoxia in Advanced Stage Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Hypoxic head and neck tumors respond poorly to radiotherapy and can be identified using gene expression profiles. However, it is unknown whether treatment outcome is driven by acute or chronic hypoxia. Gene expression data of 398 head and neck cancers was collected. Four clinical hypoxia profiles were compared to in vitro acute and chronic hypoxia profiles. Chronic and acute hypoxia profiles were tested for their association to outcome using Cox proportional hazard analyses. In an initial set of 224 patients, scores of the four clinical hypoxia profiles correlated with each other and with chronic hypoxia. However, the acute hypoxia profile showed a stronger association with local recurrence after chemoradiotherapy (p = 0.02; HR = 3.1) than the four clinical (chronic hypoxia) profiles (p = 0.2; HR = 0.9). An independent set of 174 patients confirmed that acute hypoxia is a stronger prognostic factor than chronic hypoxia for overall survival, progression-free survival, local and locoregional control. Multivariable analyses accounting for known prognostic factors substantiate this finding (p = 0.045; p = 0.042; p = 0.018 and p = 0.003, respectively). In conclusion, the four clinical hypoxia profiles are related to chronic hypoxia and not acute hypoxia. The acute hypoxia profile shows a stronger association with patient outcome and should be incorporated into existing prediction models.