Brensing KA, Raab P, Textor J, Görich J, Schiedermaier P, Strunk H, Paar D, Schepke M, Sudhop T, Spengler U, Schild H, Sauerbruch T. Prospective evaluation of a clinical score for 60-day mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt: Bonn TIPSS early mortality analysis.
Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2002;
14:723-31. [PMID:
12169980 DOI:
10.1097/00042737-200207000-00003]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt (TIPSS) is increasingly used to treat complications of portal hypertension, but proven tools for risk assessment of early mortality are lacking.
DESIGN
The prospective evaluation of a new 60-day mortality score.
PATIENTS AND METHODS
In a tertiary medical centre, 30 consecutive TIPSS patients were analysed for early mortality predictors, such as Child-Pugh score, TIPSS urgency (elective: > or = 36 h or emergency: < 36 h after variceal bleeding), comorbidity (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE]-II) and clinical data. Main predictors (P< 0.01) in this group (group-1: Child-Pugh score 10A, 10B, 10C) were graded (1, 2 or 3 points representing low, medium and high risk, respectively) and summarized as a Bonn TIPSS early mortality (BOTEM) score. This score was then tested prospectively in the next 73 TIPSS patients (group-2: Child-Pugh score 14A, 42B, 17C).
RESULTS
Group 1 early mortality (30%) depended primarily on bilirubin (P< 0.005), APACHE-II (P < 0.001) and TIPSS urgency (P< 0.001). Added risk points (1, 2, 3) for bilirubin (< 3 mg/dl, 3-6 mg/dl, > 6 mg/dl, respectively), APACHE-II (< 10, 10-20, > 20 points, respectively) and urgency (elective, emergency, active bleeding, respectively) represented individual BOTEM score points. BOTEM was the best mortality predictor (P< 0.001); < or = / > 6 score points was the optimal cut-off, with 56% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 100% positive predictive value, 84% negative predictive value and 87% accuracy. In group 2, early mortality (8.2%) was again best predicted by BOTEM (P < 0.01) with the same cut-off and 67% sensitivity, 99% specificity, 80% positive predictive value, 97% negative predictive value and 96% accuracy.
CONCLUSION
BOTEM score based on bilirubin, comorbidity and TIPSS-urgency predicts rather reliably post-TIPSS 60-day mortality and might optimize TIPSS treatment.
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