A fetal growth standard derived from multiple modalities

Machine Learning for Fetal Growth Prediction

Birthweight is often used as a proxy for fetal weight. Problems with this practice have recently been brought to light. We explore whether data available at birth can be used to predict estimated fetal weight using linear and quantile regression, random forests, Bayesian additive regression trees, and generalized boosted models. We train and validate each approach using 18,517 pregnancies (31,948 ultrasound visits) from the Magee-Womens Obstetric Maternal and Infant data and 240 pregnancies in a separate dataset of high-risk pregnancies. We also quantify the relation between smoking and small-for-gestational-age birth, defined as a birthweight in the lower 10th percentile of a population birthweight standard and estimated and predicted fetal weight standard. Using mean squared error and median absolute deviation criteria, quantile regression performed best among the regression-based approaches, but generalized boosted models performed best overall. Using the birthweight standard, smoking during pregnancy increased the risk of small-for-gestational-age 3.84-fold (95% CI: 2.70, 5.47). This ratio dropped to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.50, 1.81) when using the correct fetal weight standard, which was no different from the machine learning-based predicted standards, but higher than the regression-based predicted standards. Machine learning algorithms show promise in recovering missing fetal weight information. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B314.

External Evaluation of Population Pharmacokinetic Models of Vancomycin in Neonates: The transferability of published models to different clinical settings

BACKGROUND

Vancomycin is one of the most evaluated antibiotics in neonates using modeling and simulation approaches. However no clear consensus on optimal dosing has been achieved. The objective of the present study was to perform an external evaluation of published models, in order to test their predictive performances in an independent dataset and to identify the possible study-related factors influencing the transferability of pharmacokinetic models to different clinical settings.

METHOD

Published neonatal vancomycin pharmacokinetic models were screened from the literature. The predictive performance of 6 models was evaluated using an independent dataset (112 concentrations from 78 neonates). The evaluation procedures used simulation-based diagnostics (visual predictive check [VPC] and normalized prediction distribution errors [NPDE]).

RESULTS

Differences in predictive performances of models for vancomycin pharmacokinetics in neonates were found. The mean of NPDE for 6 evaluated models were 1.35, -0.22, -0.36, 0.24, 0.66, 0.48, respectively. These differences were explained, at least partly, by taking into account the method used to measure serum creatinine concentrations. The adult conversion factor of 1.3 (enzymatic to Jaffé) was tested with an improvement in the VPC and NPDE, but it still need to be evaluated and validated in neonates. Differences were also identified between analytical methods for vancomycin.

CONCLUSION

The importance of analytical techniques for serum creatinine concentrations and vancomycin as a predictor of vancomycin concentrations in neonates has been confirmed. Dosage individualisation of vancomycin in neonates should consider not only patients' characteristics and clinical conditions, but also the methods used to measure serum creatinine and vancomycin.

Impending macrosomia: will induction of labour modify the risk of caesarean delivery?

OBJECTIVE

To compare the annual incidence rates of caesarean delivery between induction of labour and expectant management in the setting of macrosomia.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Deliveries in the USA in 2003.

POPULATION

Singleton births of macrosomic neonates to low-risk nulliparous women at 39 weeks of gestation and beyond.

METHODS

Women who had induction of labour at 39 weeks of gestation with a neonatal birthweight of 4000 ± 125 g (3875-4125 g) were compared with women who delivered (either induced or spontaneous labour) at 40, 41 or 42 weeks (i.e. expectant management), assuming an intrauterine fetal weight gain of 200 g per additional week of gestation. Similar comparisons were made at 40 and 41 weeks of gestation. Chi-square test and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used for statistical comparison.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Method of delivery, 5-minute Apgar scores, neonatal injury.

RESULTS

There were 132,112 women meeting the study criteria. In women whose labours were induced at 39 weeks and who delivered a neonate with a birthweight of 4000 ± 125 g, the frequency of caesarean was lower compared with women who delivered at a later gestational age (35.2% versus 40.9%; adjusted OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.17-1.33). This trend was maintained at both 40 weeks (36.1% versus 42.6%; adjusted OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.23-1.40) and 41 weeks (38.9% versus 41.8%; adjusted OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.06-1.28) of gestation.

CONCLUSIONS

In the setting of known birthweight, it appears that induction of labour may reduce the risk of caesarean delivery. Future research should concentrate on clinical and radiological methods to better estimate birthweight to facilitate improved clinical care. These findings deserve examination in a large, prospective, randomised trial.

Population pharmacokinetics of vancomycin in premature Malaysian neonates: identification of predictors for dosing determination

The present study determined the pharmacokinetic profile of vancomycin in premature Malaysian infants. A one-compartment infusion model with first-order elimination was fitted to serum vancomycin concentration data (n = 835 points) obtained retrospectively from the drug monitoring records of 116 premature newborn infants. Vancomycin concentrations were estimated by a fluorescence polarization immunoassay. Population and individual estimates of clearance and distribution volume and the factors which affected the variability observed for the values of these parameters were obtained using a population pharmacokinetic modeling approach. The predictive performance of the population model was evaluated by visual inspections of diagnostic plots and nonparametric bootstrapping with replacement. Dosing guidelines targeting a value of > or =400 for the area under the concentration-time curve over 24 h in the steady state divided by the MIC (AUC(24)/MIC ratio) were explored using Monte Carlo simulation. Body size (weight), postmenstrual age, and small-for-gestational-age status are important factors explaining the between-subject variability of vancomycin pharmacokinetic parameter values for premature neonates. The typical population parameter estimates of clearance and distribution volume for a 1-kg premature appropriate-for-gestational-age neonate with a postmenstrual age of 30 weeks were 0.0426 liters/h and 0.523 liters, respectively. There was a 20% reduction in clearance for small-for-gestational-age infants compared to the level for the appropriate-for-gestational-age control. Dosage regimens based on a priori target response values were formulated. In conclusion, the pharmacokinetic parameter values for vancomycin in premature Malaysian neonates were estimated. Improved dosage regimens based on a priori target response values were formulated by incorporating body size, postmenstrual age, and small-for-gestational-age status, using Monte Carlo simulations with the model-estimated pharmacokinetic parameter values.

Are environmental pollutants risk factors for low birth weight?

The aim of this study was to assess the association between prenatal exposure to air pollutants and low birth weight in a medium-sized city. An ecological study was performed, using live birth data from São José dos Campos, São Paulo State, Brazil. The environmental data were obtained from the São Paul State Environmental Agency. The study included full-term newborns whose mothers were 20 to 34 years of age and had at least a complete high school education, seven or more prenatal visits, singleton pregnancy, and vaginal delivery, in order to minimize potential confounding from these variables. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of each pollutant. Low birth weight was defined as less than 2,500g. The sample included a total of 2,529 data from 2001 that met the inclusion criteria (25.6% of the total). We identified 99 newborns (3.95% of the sample) with low birth weight, and the pollutants sulfur dioxide and ozone were associated with low birth weight. The final model was À(x) = -1.79 + 1.30 (SO2) + 1.26 (O3). Thus, sulfur dioxide and ozone were identified as risk factors for low birth weight in a medium-sized city in Southeast Brazil.

[Air pollution and low birth weight in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2002]

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of air pollution on low birth weight in full term singleton newborns in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The study adopted a cross-sectional design based on the year 2002. Data on live births were obtained from the Live Birth Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Low birth weight was defined as less than 2,500 g. Maternal exposure to air pollution was defined as the mean for a given pollutant over each trimester of pregnancy and was assessed taking birth date into account. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) were estimated for each potential risk factor. For PM(10), CO, and NO(2), no significant increases were detected. For SO(2), the OR of the fourth interquartile range of exposure in the third trimester of pregnancy was 1.149 (95%CI: 1.016-1.301). For O(3), the estimated OR was 0.830 (95%CI: 0.750-0.987). When exposure variable was regarded as a continuous measure, the OR for PM(10), CO, and SO2 in the third trimester were not statistically significant and were 1.089, 2.223, and 1.259, respectively.

Anthropometry of Malawian live births between 35 and 41 weeks of gestation

The aim of this analysis was to construct cross-sectional gestational age specific percentile curves for birthweight, length, head and mid-arm circumference for Malawian babies, and to compare these percentiles with reference values for babies born to women with normal pregnancies, from a developed country. A cross-sectional study which enrolled pregnant women attending two study hospitals between March 1993 and July 1994 was undertaken. Data on maternal socio-economic status, newborn anthropometry, previous obstetric history and current pregnancy were collected. Smoothed percentile values were derived using the LMS method. Malawian reference percentiles were constructed for fetal growth from 35 weeks' gestation for singleton births. Mean birthweight, length and head circumference were lower at all gestational ages for Malawian compared with Swedish newborns. Fetal growth per completed gestational week was higher by 60 g in weight, 0.5 cm in length and 0.2 cm in head circumference in Swedish compared with Malawian babies. Growth restriction was present from 35 to 41 weeks' gestation. The pattern for the 10th percentile suggested that this was occurring from well before 35 weeks' gestation in a proportion of babies.

Pre-pregnancy weight and the risk of stillbirth and neonatal death

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and the risk of stillbirth and neonatal death and to study the causes of death among the children.

DESIGN

Cohort study of pregnant women receiving routine antenatal care in Aarhus, Denmark.

SETTING

Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark, 1989-1996.

POPULATION

A total of 24,505 singleton pregnancies (112 stillbirths, 75 neonatal deaths) were included in the analyses.

METHODS

Information on maternal pre-pregnancy weight, height, lifestyle factors and obstetric risk factors were obtained from self-administered questionnaires and hospital files. We classified the population according to pre-pregnancy BMI as underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m(2)), normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)), overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m(2)) and obese (BMI 30.0 kg/m(2) or more).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Stillbirth and neonatal death and causes of death.

RESULTS

Maternal obesity was associated with a more than doubled risk of stillbirth (odds ratio = 2.8, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5-5.3) and neonatal death (odds ratio = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.2-5.8) compared with women of normal weight. No statistically significantly increased risk of stillbirth or neonatal death was found among underweight or overweight women. Adjustment for maternal cigarette smoking, alcohol and caffeine intake, maternal age, height, parity, gender of the child, years of schooling, working status and cohabitation with partner did not change the conclusions, nor did exclusion of women with hypertensive disorders or diabetes mellitus. No single cause of death explained the higher mortality in children of obese women, but more stillbirths were caused by unexplained intrauterine death and fetoplacental dysfunction among obese women compared with normal weight women.

CONCLUSION

Maternal obesity more than doubled the risk of stillbirth and neonatal death in our study. The present and other studies linking maternal obesity to an increased risk of severe adverse pregnancy outcomes emphasise the need for public interventions to prevent obesity in young women.

Association between ambient air pollution and birth weight in São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVES

Previous studies have implicated air pollution in increased mortality and morbidity, especially in the elderly population and children. More recently, associations with mortality in infants and with some reproductive outcomes have also been reported. The aim of this study is to explore the association between exposure to outdoor air pollution during pregnancy and birth weight.

DESIGN

Cross sectional study using data on all singleton full term live births during a one year period. For each individual birth, information on gestational age, type of delivery, birth weight, sex, maternal education, maternal age, place of residence, and parity was available. Daily mean levels of PM(10), sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone were also gathered. The association between birth weight and air pollution was assessed in regression models with exposure averaged over each trimester of pregnancy.

SETTING

São Paulo city, Brazil.

RESULTS

Birth weight was shown to be associated with length of gestation, maternal age and instruction, infant gender, number of antenatal care visits, parity, and type of delivery. On adjusting for these variables negative effects of exposure to PM(10) and carbon monoxide during the first trimester were observed. This effect seemed to be more robust for carbon monoxide. For a 1 ppm increase in mean exposure to carbon monoxide during the first trimester a reduction of 23 g in birth weight was estimated.

CONCLUSIONS

The results are consistent in revealing that exposure to air pollution during pregnancy may interfere with weight gain in the fetus. Given the poorer outlook for low birthweight babies on a number of health outcomes, this finding is important from the public health perspective.