Outcomes and endpoints in trials of cancer treatment: the past, present, and future

Clinical Practice of Poly (ADP-Ribose) Polymerase Inhibitors for Maintenance Treatment of Platinum-Sensitive Recurrent Ovarian Cancer in China

Clinical trials of three poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors, olaparib, niraparib and fuzuloparib, in platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer (PSR OC) in China showed that PARP inhibitors improved progression-free survival and achieved an all-comer indication in this population. We reviewed the efficacy and safety of these PARP inhibitors in patient populations studied in clinical trials and highlighted the positive role of PARP inhibitors in improving patient outcomes using clinical trials and real-world studies conducted in China. This article also discusses the issues encountered in clinical practice and how to evaluate the different indications for PSR OC in China and abroad.

Efficient discovery of robust prognostic biomarkers and signatures in solid tumors

Recent advancements in multi-omics and big-data technologies have facilitated the discovery of numerous cancer prognostic biomarkers and gene signatures. However, their clinical application remains limited due to poor reproducibility and insufficient independent validation. Despite the availability of high-quality datasets, achieving reliable biomarker identification across multiple cohorts continues to be a significant challenge. To address these issues, we developed a comprehensive platform, SurvivalML, designed to support the discovery and validation of prognostic biomarkers and gene signatures using large-scale and harmonized data from 21 cancer types. Through SurvivalML, we identified DCLRE1B as a novel prognostic biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma, with experimental confirmation of its role in promoting tumor progression. Additionally, we developed the Chinese glioblastoma prognostic signature (CGPS) and its simplified version, SCGPS, a three-gene model. Both demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to other glioblastoma signatures in our in-house cohort and five independent Chinese datasets. The SCGPS model was further validated in 109 clinical samples using multiplex immunofluorescence, showing strong consistency with the original CGPS model. Overall, SurvivalML provides a robust platform for the identification and validation of prognostic biomarkers and gene signatures, offering a valuable resource for advancing cancer research and clinical application.

Longitudinal and time-to-event modeling for the survival of advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most lethal cancers especially at advanced stage. In order to analyze the dynamics of potential prognostic biomarkers and further quantify their relationships with the overall survival (OS) of advanced PDAC patients, we herein developed a parametric time-to-event (TTE) model integrated with longitudinal submodels. Data from 104 patients receiving standard chemotherapies were retrospectively collected for model development, and other 54 patients were enrolled as external validation. The longitudinal submodels were developed with the time-course data of sum of longest diameters (SLD) of tumors, serum albumin (ALB) and body weight (BW) using nonlinear mixed effect models. The model-derived metrics including model parameters and individual predictions at different time points were further analyzed in the TTE model, together with other baseline information of patients. A linear growth-exponential shrinkage model was employed to describe the dynamics of SLD, while logistic models were used to fit the relationship of time prior to death with ALB and BW. The TTE model estimated the ALB and BW changes at the 9th week after chemotherapies as well as the baseline CA19-9 level that showed most significant impact on the OS, and the model-based simulations could provide individual survival rate predictions for patients with different prognostic factors. This study quantitatively demonstrates the importance of physical status and baseline disease for the OS of advanced PDAC patients, and highlights that timely nutrition support would be helpful to improve the prognosis.

Bevacizumab exerts dose-dependent risk for intracranial hemorrhage in patients with malignant gliomas

PURPOSE

Bevacizumab, an anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody, has become a mainstay therapeutic in the management of malignant glioma. It is unknown if the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), a major complication associated with bevacizumab use, is dose-dependent.

METHODS

This was a single institution retrospective analysis of patients treated with bevacizumab for the management of gliomas between 2009 and 2022. Incidence rates of ICH between patients receiving low-dose (< 5 mg/kg/week) and conventional-dose (5 mg/kg/week) bevacizumab regimens were compared via competing risk analysis over time. We evaluated post-progression survival (PPS) as a secondary outcome using multivariate Cox regression.

RESULTS

One hundred and seventy-three patients were identified (low-dose group, n = 51, conventional-dose group, n = 122) for inclusion in our analysis. Cumulative incidence rates of all cases of ICH and clinically symptomatic cases of ICH were higher in the conventional-dose (17.2% for all cases, 13.7% for symptomatic) relative to the low-dose group (3.9% for all cases, 2.0% for symptomatic); p-value 0.0296 for all cases, p-value 0.0274 for symptomatic cases. On multivariate Fine-Gray regression, conventional-dose bevacizumab therapy remained significantly associated with increased risk for symptomatic ICH (SHR 8.0560; p-value 0.0442). No difference in PPS was observed between the low-dose versus conventional-dose groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Conventional-dose bevacizumab therapy (5 mg/kg/week) is associated with increased incidence of ICH in patients with malignant glioma compared to lower dose bevacizumab (< 5 mg/kg/week) in this single center retrospective cohort. No difference in PPS was observed between the low-dose versus conventional-dose groups.

Time-to-Event Endpoints in Imaging Biomarker Studies

Time-to-event endpoints are widely used as measures of patients' well-being and indicators of prognosis. In imaging-based biomarker studies, there are increasingly more studies that focus on examining imaging biomarkers' prognostic or predictive utilities on those endpoints, whether in a trial or an observational study setting. In this educational review article, we briefly introduce some basic concepts of time-to-event endpoints and point out potential pitfalls in the context of imaging biomarker research in hope of improving radiologists' understanding of related subjects. Besides, we have included some review and discussions on the benefits of using time-to-event endpoints and considerations on selecting overall survival or progression-free survival for primary analysis. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 5 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 3.

ESR Essentials: response assessment criteria in oncologic imaging-practice recommendations by the European Society of Oncologic Imaging

Assessing the response to oncological treatments is paramount for determining the prognosis and defining the best treatment for each patient. Several biomarkers, including imaging, can be used, but standardization is fundamental for consistency and reliability. Tumor response evaluation criteria have been defined by international groups for application in pharmaceutical clinical trials evaluating new drugs or therapeutic strategies. RECIST 1.1 criteria are exclusively based on unidimensional lesion measurements; changes in tumor size are used as surrogate imaging biomarkers to correlate with patient outcomes. However, increased tumor size does not always reflect tumor progression. The introduction of immunotherapy has led to the development of new criteria (iRECIST, Level of Evidence (LoE) Ib) that consider the possibility that an increase in disease burden is secondary to the immune response instead of progression, with the new concept of Unconfirmed Progressive Disease (a first progression event which must be confirmed on follow-up). Specific criteria were devised for HCC (mRECIST, LoE IV), which measure only enhancing HCC portions to account for changes after local therapy. For GIST treated with imatinib, criteria were developed to account for the possible increase in size reflecting a response rather than a progression by assessing both tumor size and density on CT (Choi, LoE II). This article provides concise and relevant practice recommendations aimed at general radiologists to help choose and apply the most appropriate criteria for assessing response to treatment in different oncologic scenarios. Though these criteria were developed for clinical trials, they may be applied in clinical practice as a guide for day-to-day interpretation. KEY POINTS: Response evaluation criteria, designed for use in clinical trials, might serve as a surrogate biomarker for overall survival. RECIST 1.1 defines measurable and non-measurable disease among which target lesions and non-target lesions are selected at baseline as reference for follow-ups. Some therapies and/or cancers require the use of different criteria, such as iRECIST, mRECIST, and Choi criteria.

Risk and Benefit for Basket Trials in Oncology: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Oncology research is increasingly adopting new clinical trial models that implement the concept of precision medicine. One of these is the basket clinical trial design. Basket clinical trials allow new treatments to be evaluated across multiple tumor types. Patients recruited to basket clinical trials share certain molecular characteristics of their cancer that are predictive of clinical benefit from the experimental treatment.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to describe the risks and benefits of basket clinical trials in oncology.

METHODS

Our study was prospectively registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023406401). We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and ClinicalTrials.gov for reports of basket clinical trials in oncology published between 1 January, 2001, and 14 June, 2023. We measured the risk by treatment-related adverse events (grades 3, 4, and 5), and the benefit by objective response rate. We also extracted and analyzed data on progression-free survival and overall survival. When possible, data were meta-analyzed.

RESULTS

We included 126 arms of 75 basket clinical trials accounting for 7659 patients. The pooled objective response rate was 18.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 14.8-21.1). The rate of treatment-related death was 0.7% (95% CI 0.4-1.0), while 30.4% (95% CI 24.2-36.7) of patients experienced grade 3/4 drug-related toxicity. The median progression-free survival was 3.1 months (95% CI 2.6-3.9), and the median overall survival was 8.9 months (95% CI 6.7-10.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide an empirical basis for communicating about the risks and benefits of basket clinical trials and for refining new models of clinical trials applied in precision medicine.

Is There Anything New in Canine AGASACA?

Apocrine gland anal sac adenocarcinoma (AGASACA) is a locally invasive tumor with a high potential for early metastasis. The most recent studies indicate that 23.4-83% of dogs have metastases to the iliosacral lymph nodes (LNs), and 2.1-31% have distant metastases to other organs at the time of first presentation. Usually, only one anal sac is affected, but bilateral involvement has been reported in 4-20% of dogs. About 16-53% of dogs present with paraneoplastic hypercalcemia. The most recent studies show an overall improvement in median survival time (MST) (15-28 months) for dogs with different stages of AGASACA treated with surgery and adjuvant therapy compared to those treated with chemotherapy alone (6.9 to 8.7 months). The highest MST (22-32 months) was reported when radiation therapy (RT) was selected as a sole or adjunctive treatment. Several studies have been published to identify the subset of tumors with more aggressive behavior and higher metastatic potential. The main negative prognostic factors are the size of the primary tumor, metastatic regional lymphadenopathy at first presentation, the size and the number of the metastatic lymph nodes, distant metastases at the time of diagnosis, and the histological characteristics of the primary tumor. In this critical review, the latest advancements in histological diagnosis, staging, treatment, and prognosis of AGASACA are described. The aim is to provide a full overview of this neoplasm, focusing on the latest advancements on prognostic variables and treatments.

Chemotherapy alone versus chemotherapy plus radiotherapy for adults with early-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma

BACKGROUND

Early-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma in adults is commonly treated with combined modality treatment of chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy. The role of radiotherapy has been questioned due to potential long-term adverse effects.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of chemotherapy compared to chemotherapy plus radiotherapy in adults with early-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma.

SEARCH METHODS

We updated all previous searches for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the databases Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trial, MEDLINE and Embase, in trial registries and in relevant conference proceedings until November 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included RCTs comparing chemotherapy alone with chemotherapy plus radiotherapy in adults with early-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma and excluded trials with more than 20% of participants with advanced Hodgkin's lymphoma. We considered immunotherapy in addition to chemotherapy eligible if both were applied similarly in the comparator groups, but did not identify such trials. For our comparisons, we separated RCTs with the same number of chemotherapy cycles in both arms and RCTs with a different number of cycles, when the chemotherapy regimens were the same. We separated RCTs which compared participants with a favourable, mixed or unfavourable risk profile.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened search results, extracted data and assessed the quality of included trials. A third review author resolved discrepancies. We analysed time-to-event outcomes (overall survival, progression-free survival) as hazard ratios (HR) and binary outcomes (adverse events) as risk ratios (RR). We assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We included nine comparisons of eight RCTs involving 3840 participants in this updated review. Same number of chemotherapy cycles in both trial arms Favourable disease For overall survival in individuals with favourable Hodgkin's lymphoma, the evidence is uncertain and inconclusive (HR 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11 to 7.92; 2 RCTs, 1245 participants; very low-certainty evidence due to study limitations, inconsistency and imprecision). Additional radiotherapy to chemotherapy is likely to improve progression-free survival (HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.68; 2 RCTs, 1245 participants; moderate-certainty evidence due to study limitations). The evidence was uncertain and inconclusive for second-cancer-related mortality (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.01 to 74.24; 2 RCTs, 1245 participants; very low-certainty evidence due to study limitations, inconsistency and substantial imprecision) and suggests little to no difference in cardiac disease-related mortality (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.06 to 14.16; 1 RCT, 667 participants; low-certainty evidence due to substantial imprecision). There were no data on infection-related mortality or infertility. Mixed population For a population of mixed risk profile, the evidence on overall survival is uncertain and inconclusive (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.13 to 4.80; 2 RCTs, 572 participants; very low-certainty evidence due to study limitations, inconsistency and imprecision). It indicates that additional radiotherapy may lead to an improvement in progression-free survival (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.17; 2 RCTs, 572 participants; low-certainty evidence due to study limitations and imprecision). The evidence is uncertain and inconclusive for infection-related mortality (RR 1.35, 95% CI 0.17 to 10.87; 2 RCTs, 572 participants) and second-cancer-related mortality (RR 0.52, 95% CI 0.09 to 2.98; 2 RCTs, 572 participants) (both very low-certainty evidence due to study limitations and substantial imprecision), but suggests that additional radiotherapy may increase cardiac disease-related mortality (RR 3.03, 95% CI 0.12 to 73.92; 1 RCT, 420 participants; low-certainty evidence due to substantial imprecision). There were no data on infertility. Unfavourable disease For individuals with unfavourable disease, the evidence on overall survival is uncertain and inconclusive (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.20 to 2.44; 2 RCTs, 688 participants; very low-certainty evidence due to study limitations and substantial imprecision), but additional radiotherapy probably improves progression-free survival (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.19 to 1.60; 1 RCT, 651 participants; moderate-certainty evidence due to imprecision). The evidence was uncertain and inconclusive for cardiac disease-related mortality (RR 2.85, 95% CI 0.12 to 65.74; 1 RCT, 37 participants; very low-certainty evidence due to study limitations and substantial imprecision). There were no data on infection-related mortality, second-cancer related mortality or infertility. Different number of chemotherapy cycles in both trial arms Favourable disease The evidence for overall survival in individuals with favourable disease treated with different numbers of chemotherapy cycles in both arms is uncertain and inclusive (HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.04 to 3.38; 1 RCT, 357 participants; very low-certainty evidence due to study limitations and substantial imprecision), yet it suggests a likely improvement in progression-free survival with additional radiotherapy (HR 0.08, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.32; 1 RCT, 357 participants; moderate-certainty evidence due to study limitations). For second-cancer-related mortality, the evidence is uncertain and inconclusive (RR 0.21, 95% CI 0.01 to 4.34; 1 RCT, 465 participants; very low-certainty evidence due to study limitations and substantial imprecision). There were no data on infection-related mortality and infertility and data for cardiac disease-related mortality were not estimable (no events in either group). Unfavourable disease For individuals with an unfavourable risk profile, additional radiotherapy may decrease overall survival slightly (HR 1.66, 95% CI 0.95 to 2.90; 2 RCTs, 698 participants; low-certainty evidence due to study limitations and imprecision), but may slightly improve progression-free survival (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.33; 2 RCTs, 698 participants; low-certainty evidence due to study limitations and imprecision). The evidence is uncertain and inconclusive for infection-related mortality (RR 6.90, 95% CI 0.36 to 132.34; 1 RCT, 276 participants), second-cancer-related mortality (RR 2.19, 95% CI 0.77 to 6.19; 2 RCTs, 870 participants) and cardiac disease-related mortality (RR 1.60, 95% CI 0.31 to 8.22; 2 RCTs, 870 participants) (all very low-certainty evidence due to study limitations and substantial imprecision). There were no data on infertility.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The chemotherapy regimens in the trials differed and data for regimens commonly used today were limited. Additional radiotherapy may slightly improve progression-free survival. The available data for overall survival and adverse events were of low and very low certainty, and we were unable to draw conclusions about the effects of additional radiotherapy on these outcomes. No studies evaluated infertility. High-quality, longer-term follow-up data are required and data on fertility are needed.

Improving the clinical meaning of surrogate endpoints: An empirical assessment of clinical progression in phase III oncology trials

Disease progression in clinical trials is commonly defined by radiologic measures. However, clinical progression may be more meaningful to patients, may occur even when radiologic criteria for progression are not met, and often requires a change in therapy in clinical practice. The objective of this study was to determine the utilization of clinical progression criteria within progression-based trial endpoints among phase III trials testing systemic therapies for metastatic solid tumors. The primary manuscripts and protocols of phase III trials were reviewed for whether clinical events, such as refractory pain, tumor bleeding, or neurologic compromise, could constitute a progression event. Univariable logistic regression computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI for associations between trial-level covariates and clinical progression. A total of 216 trials enrolling 148,190 patients were included, with publication dates from 2006 through 2020. A major change in clinical status was included in the progression criteria of 13% of trials (n = 27), most commonly as a secondary endpoint (n = 22). Only 59% of trials (n = 16) reported distinct clinical progression outcomes that constituted the composite surrogate endpoint. Compared with other disease sites, genitourinary trials were more likely to include clinical progression definitions (16/33 [48%] vs. 11/183 [6%]; OR, 14.72; 95% CI, 5.99 to 37.84; p < .0001). While major tumor-related clinical events were seldom considered as disease progression events, increased attention to clinical progression may improve the meaningfulness and clinical applicability of surrogate endpoints for patients with metastatic solid tumors.

Identification of gasdermin B function in the progression of renal clear cell carcinoma by a pan-cancer analysis

The Gasdermin (GSDM) protein family is critically involved in pyroptosis, which participates in the onset and progression of human malignancies. The exact role and impact of the GSDM family genes in various malignancies, particularly renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC), is still uncertain. The present results indicated GSDMB gene expression significantly upregulated in individuals with KIRC, whose diagnostic effectiveness was confirmed through ROC analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis also revealed KIRC patients had poor survival prognosis. The high expression of GSDMB served as an independent risk factor for overall survival (OS) in KIRC, based on multivariate cox analysis for confirmation. A nomogram based on GSDMB expression and clinical characteristics displayed remarkable diagnostic effectiveness for KIRC. Collectively, these findings may shed light on functions of GSDM family genes in tumor progression and offer new directions for future research into their potential as therapeutic targets in various types of tumors. Furthermore, the outcomes of this research highlighted that the prediction of treatment responses in KIRC patients may get improved through in-depth exploration into the impact of GSDMB expression on individuals with KIRC patients.

Association between health-related quality-of-life results, outcomes of efficacy and drug approvals: a meta-research study of randomized phase III trials in oncology

BACKGROUND

Despite the interest from the scientific community and regulatory agencies, limited data are available on the association between health-related quality-of-life (QoL) results, outcome of efficacy and drug approvals.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We updated the previously published meta-research study of phase III clinical trials in patients with solid tumours treated with systemic treatments, published from 2012 to 2021 in 11 selected journals. For the present analysis, we focused on studies conducted in the advanced setting. The primary outcome was the association of global QoL results with study primary endpoints (EP1), overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), while a secondary outcome was the frequency of positive global QoL results among treatments approved by regulatory agencies [European Medicines Agency (EMA)/Food and Drug Administration (FDA)]. A descriptive analysis was carried out and the association between QoL results and characteristics of studies and of publications was tested.

RESULTS

Five hundred and ninety-two eligible publications were identified from 2012 to 2021. The primary endpoint was OS in 298 clinical trials (50.3%) and PFS in 304 clinical trials (51.4%). A positive result in EP1 analysis was reported in 124 trials (41.6%) with OS as EP1 and in 182 trials (59.5%) with PFS as EP1. Among studies with positive OS and PFS, global QoL results were positive in 39 (31.5%) and 45 studies (24.7%), respectively. FDA and EMA approvals were available for 143 (24.2%) and 142 studies (24%), respectively. Among these, global QoL results were positive in 55 (38.5%) and 56 studies (39.4%), respectively. QoL results were available for most drugs approved by regulatory agencies, but the proportion of approvals with positive global QoL results was not significantly increased from 2012-2016 to 2017-2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite QoL data being available for most cancer treatments recently approved by regulatory agencies, QoL improvement has been demonstrated in a minority of studies with positive results in the primary endpoint.

Melittin alcalase-hydrolysate: a novel chemically characterized multifunctional bioagent; antibacterial, anti-biofilm and anticancer

The prevalent life-threatening microbial and cancer diseases and lack of effective pharmaceutical therapies created the need for new molecules with antimicrobial and anticancer potential. Bee venom (BV) was collected from honeybee workers, and melittin (NM) was extracted from BV and analyzed by urea-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (urea-PAGE). The isolated melittin was hydrolyzed with alcalase into new bioactive peptides and evaluated for their antimicrobial and anticancer activity. Gel filtration chromatography fractionated melittin hydrolysate (HM) into three significant fractions (F1, F2, and F3), that were characterized by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) and evaluated for their antimicrobial, anti-biofilm, antitumor, and anti-migration activities. All the tested peptides showed antimicrobial and anti-biofilm activities against Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria. Melittin and its fractions significantly inhibited the proliferation of two types of cancer cells (Huh-7 and HCT 116). Yet, melittin and its fractions did not affect the viability of normal human lung Wi-38 cells. The IC50 and selectivity index data evidenced the superiority of melittin peptide fractions over intact melittin. Melittin enzymatic hydrolysate is a promising novel product with high potential as an antibacterial and anticancer agent.

Assessment of endpoint definitions in recurrent and metastatic mucosal head and neck squamous cell carcinoma trials: Head and Neck Cancer International Group consensus recommendations

Transparent and precise endpoint definitions are a crucial aspect of clinical trial conduct and reporting, and are used to communicate the benefit of an intervention. Previous studies have identified inconsistencies in endpoint definitions across oncological clinical trials. Here, the Head and Neck Cancer International Group assessed endpoint definitions from phase 3 trials or trials considered practice-changing for patients with recurrent or metastatic mucosal head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, published between 2008 and 2021. We identify considerable and global heterogeneity in endpoint definitions, which undermines the interpretation of results and development of future studies. We show how fundamental components of even incontrovertible endpoints such as overall survival vary widely, highlighting an urgent need for increased rigour in reporting and harmonisation of endpoints.

Niraparib maintenance therapy using an individualised starting dose in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer (NORA): final overall survival analysis of a phase 3 randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Background

Niraparib significantly prolonged progression-free survival versus placebo in patients with platinum-sensitive, recurrent ovarian cancer (PSROC), regardless of germline BRCA mutation (gBRCAm) status, in NORA. This analysis reports final data on overall survival (OS).

Methods

This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial enrolled patients across 30 centres in China between 26 September 2017 and 2 February 2019 (clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03705156). Eligible patients had histologically confirmed, recurrent, (predominantly) high-grade serous epithelial ovarian cancer, fallopian tube carcinoma, or primary peritoneal carcinoma (no histological restrictions for those with gBRCAm) and had received ≥2 prior lines of platinum-based chemotherapy. Patients were randomised (2:1) to receive niraparib or placebo, with stratification by gBRCAm status, time to recurrence following penultimate platinum-based chemotherapy, and response to last platinum-based chemotherapy. Following a protocol amendment, the starting dose was individualised: 200 mg/day for patients with bodyweight <77 kg and/or platelet count <150 × 103/μL at baseline and 300 mg/day otherwise. OS was a secondary endpoint.

Findings

Totally, 265 patients were randomised to receive niraparib (n = 177) or placebo (n = 88), and 249 (94.0%) received an individualised starting dose. As of 14 August 2023, median follow-up for OS was 57.9 months (IQR, 54.8-61.6). Median OS (95% CI) with niraparib versus placebo was 51.5 (41.4-58.9) versus 47.6 (33.3-not evaluable [NE]) months, with hazard ratio [HR] of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.60-1.23), in the overall population; 56.0 (36.1-NE) versus 47.6 (31.6-NE) months, with HR of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.46-1.58), in patients with gBRCAm; and 46.5 (41.0-NE) versus 46.9 (31.8-NE) months, with HR of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.56-1.35), in those without. No new safety signals were identified, and myelodysplastic syndromes/acute myeloid leukaemia occurred in three (1.7%) niraparib-treated patients.

Interpretation

Niraparib maintenance therapy with an individualised starting dose demonstrated a favourable OS trend versus placebo in PSROC patients, regardless of gBRCAm status.

Funding

Zai Lab (Shanghai) Co., Ltd; National Major Scientific and Technological Special Project for "Significant New Drugs Development" in 2018, China [grant number 2018ZX09736019].

Meta-analysis of response rates to first-line salvage treatment after CAR-T therapy failure in large B-cell lymphoma patients

INTRODUCTION

The prognosis for large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL) patients who did not respond or relapsed after chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T therapy remains dismal, with no established consensus on the most effective salvage regimen.

METHODS

We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis of complete response (CR) and overall response rates (ORR) to first-line treatments for CAR-T-relapsed/refractory LBCL. We followed the predefined protocol available at PROSPERO (CRD42023473854).

RESULTS

We identified 41 studies evaluating the following interventions: non-CD19 CAR-T, CD19 CAR-T, bispecific antibodies (BiTEs), lenalidomide- and polatuzumab-based regimens, radiotherapy, immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI), Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase inhibitors (BTKi). Non-CD19 CAR-T cells yielded the best CR (56%, CI: 40-71%), significantly higher than other interventions except CD19 CAR-T (CR = 30%, CI: 7-58%). BiTEs, radiotherapy, lenalidomide- and polatuzumab-based regimens (CR: 28%, 26%, 19%, 24% respectively) did not differ significantly from each other. ICI and BTKi showed the lowest CR rates (12%, CI: 5-20% and 8%, CI: 0-23%, respectively), and were also significantly inferior to BiTEs. ORR was the highest for non-CD19 CAR-T (ORR = 80%, CI: 66-92%), whereas all other regimens yielded values below 50%.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-CD19 CAR-T cells were associated with higher response rates and should be considered if patients are eligible. Given the heterogeneity of the estimates, the results should be interpreted cautiously.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42023473854.

Progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma

OBJECTIVES

The goal of the research was to assess the quantitative relationship between median progression-free survival (PFS) and median overall survival (OS) specifically among patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) based on published randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

METHODS

Two bibliographic databases (PubMed and Embase, 1970-2017) were systematically searched for RCTs in RRMM that reported OS and PFS, followed by an updated search of studies published between 2010 and 2022 in 3 databases (Embase, MEDLINE, and EBM Reviews, 2010-2022). The association between median PFS and median OS was assessed using the nonparametric Spearman rank and parametric Pearson correlation coefficients. Subsequently, the quantitative relationship between PFS and OS was assessed using weighted least-squares regression adjusted for covariates including age, sex, and publication year. Study arms were weighted by the number of patients in each arm.

RESULTS

A total of 31 RCTs (56 treatment arms, 10,450 patients with RRMM) were included in the analysis. The average median PFS and median OS were 7.1 months (SD 5.5) and 28.1 months (SD 11.8), respectively. The Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficients between median PFS and median OS were 0.80 (P < 0.0001) and 0.79 (P < 0.0001), respectively. In individual treatment arms of RRMM trials, each 1-month increase in median PFS was associated with a 1.72-month (95% CI 1.26-2.17) increase in median OS.

CONCLUSION

Analysis of the relationship between PFS and OS incorporating more recent studies in RRMM further substantiates the use of PFS to predict OS in RRMM.

A preliminary study of optimal treatment response rates in patients undergoing hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy combined with molecular targeting and immunotherapy

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of the best response rate (BRR) as a surrogate for overall survival (OS), using the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST), in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) with fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) combined with molecular targeting and immunotherapy.

METHODS

This study enrolled 111 consecutive patients who had complete imaging data. The median age of patients was 58 years (IQR 50.5-65.0). Among the patients, those with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A, BCLC stage B, and BCLC stage C comprised 6.4%, 19.1%, and 73.6%, respectively. The optimal threshold of BRR can be determined using restricted cubic splines (RCS) and the rank sum statistics of maximum selection. Survival curves of patients in the high rating and low rating groups were plotted. We then used the change-in-estimate (CIE) method to filter out confounders and the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to balance confounders between the two groups to assess the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

The median frequency of the combination treatment regimens administered in the overall population was 3 times (IQR 2.0-3.0). The optimal BRR truncation value calculated was -0.2. Based on this value, 77 patients were categorized as the low rating group and 34 as the high rating group. The differences in the OS between the high and low rating groups were statistically significant (7 months [95%CI 6.0-14.0] vs. 30 months [95%CI 30.0-]; p< 0.001). Using the absolute 10% cut-off value, the CIE method was used to screen out the following confounding factors affecting prognosis: successful conversion surgery, baseline tumor size, BCLC stage, serum total bilirubin level, number of interventional treatments, alpha-fetoprotein level, presence of inferior vena cava tumor thrombus, and partial thrombin activation time. The survival curve was then plotted again using IPTW for confounding factors, and it was found that the low rating group continued to have better OS than the high rating group. Finally, the relationship between BRR and baseline factors was analyzed, and inferior vena cava tumor thrombus and baseline tumor size correlated significantly with BRR.

CONCLUSIONS

BRR can be used as a surrogate endpoint for OS in unresectable HCC patients undergoing FOLFOX-HAIC in combination with molecular targeting and immunotherapy. Thus, by calculating the BRR, the prognosis of HCC patients after combination therapy can be predicted. Inferior vena cava tumor thrombus and baseline tumor size were closely associated with the BRR.

Multipeptide vaccines for melanoma in the adjuvant setting: long-term survival outcomes and post-hoc analysis of a randomized phase II trial

The critical roles of CD4+ T cells have been understudied for cancer vaccines. Here we report long-term clinical outcomes of a randomized multicenter phase II clinical trial (NCT00118274), where patients with high-risk melanoma received a multipeptide vaccine targeting CD8+ T cells (12MP) and were randomized to receive either of two vaccines for CD4+ (helper) T cells: 6MHP (6 melanoma-specific helper peptides), or tet (a nonspecific helper peptide from tetanus toxoid). Cyclophosphamide (Cy) pre-treatment was also assessed. Primary outcomes for T cell responses to 12MP, 6MHP, and tet were previously reported, suggesting immunogenicity of both vaccines but that CD8 T cell responses to 12MP were lower when tet was replaced with 6MHP. Here, in post-hoc analyses, we report durable prolongation of overall survival by adding 6MHP instead of tet. That benefit was experienced only by male patients. A favorable interaction of 6MHP and Cy is also suggested. Multivariable Cox regression analysis of the intent-to-treat population identify vaccine arm (12MP + 6MHP+Cy) and patient sex (male) as the two significant predictors of enhanced survival. These findings support the value of adding cognate T cell help to cancer vaccines and also suggest a need to assess the impact of patient sex on immune therapy outcomes.

Early Efficacy End Points in Neoadjuvant Rectal Cancer Trials: Surrogacy Revisited

Trial-level surrogacy is critical before early response endpoints are used to approve new therapies.

Efficacy and toxicity of immune checkpoint inhibitors combination therapy for advanced renal cell carcinoma: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

Background

Although immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) show a significant overall survival advantage over standard advanced renal cell carcinoma (aRCC) therapies, tumor response to these agents remains poor. Some studies have shown that combination therapy including an ICI appears to be the best treatment; however, the overall benefit in terms of efficacy and toxicity still needs to be assessed. Thus, we performed a network meta-analysis to evaluate the differences in the efficacy of several combinations that include an ICI to provide a basis for clinical treatment selection.

Methods

We conducted a thorough search of PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for articles from January 2010 to June 2023. R 4.4.2 and STATA 16.0 were used to analyze data; hazard ratio (HR) and odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to assess the results.

Results

An indirect comparison showed that nivolumab plus cabozantinib and pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib were the most effective treatments for progression-free survival (PFS), with no significant differences between the two interventions (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.96-1.78; P=0.08); rank probability showed that pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib had a 57.1% chance of being the preferred treatment. In the absence of indirect comparisons between pembrolizumab plus axitinib, nivolumab plus ipilimumab, avelumab plus axitinib, nivolumab plus cabozantinib, and pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib, pembrolizumab plus axitinib (40.2%) was the best treatment option for overall survival (OS). Compared to pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib, nivolumab plus ipilimumab (OR, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.01-0.65; P=0.02) and pembrolizumab plus axitinib (OR, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.00-0.78; P<0.001) had a lower incidence of overall adverse events (AEs).

Conclusion

Pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib and pembrolizumab plus axitinib resulted in the highest PFS and OS rates, respectively. Pembrolizumab plus axitinib may be the best option when AEs are a concern.

Systematic review registration

https://inplasy.com/, identifier INPLASY202410078.

Telehealth and Outcomes in Patients With Cancer: Data and Innovation

ABSTRACT

Despite that telehealth has been crucial to the delivery of oncology care during the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of this care delivery mechanism on outcomes in cancer care has not been rigorously studied relative standard in-person care for patients with cancer. Patient-centered outcomes such as quality of life, patient satisfaction, and symptoms are important outcomes that have been the primary focus of many of the existing studies in this space, yet only a select few have evaluated overall survival and other objective efficacy endpoints. Studies have alluded to positive effects of telehealth on mitigating financial toxicity and enhancing cost-effective care delivery in oncology. Telehealth carries much potential for advancing care for patients with cancer, but future study should focus on additional efficacy endpoints, implementation, and ways to reduce disparities.

Reviewing the evolutive ACQ-to-AIE transformation of photosensitizers for phototheranostics

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) represents an emerging noninvasive treatment technique for cancers and various nonmalignant diseases, including infections. During the process of PDT, the physical and chemical properties of photosensitizers (PSs) critically determine the effectiveness of PDT. Traditional PSs have made great progress in clinical applications. One of the challenges is that traditional PSs suffer from aggregation-caused quenching (ACQ) due to their discotic structures. Recently, aggregation-induced emission PSs (AIE-PSs) with a twisted propeller-shaped conformation have been widely concerned because of high reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation efficiency, strong fluorescence efficiency, and resistance to photobleaching. However, AIE-PSs also have some disadvantages, such as short absorption wavelengths and insufficient molar absorption coefficient. When the advantages and disadvantages of AIE-PSs and ACQ-PSs are complementary, combining ACQ-PSs and AIE-PSs is a "win-to-win" strategy. As far as we know, the conversion of traditional representative ACQ-PSs to AIE-PSs for phototheranostics has not been reviewed. In the review, we summarize the recent progress on the ACQ-to-AIE transformation of PSs and the strategies to achieve desirable theranostic applications. The review would be helpful to design more efficient ACQ-AIE-PSs in the future and to accelerate the development and clinical application of PDT.

The correlation between the costs and clinical benefits of national price-negotiated anticancer drugs for specific cancers in China

Background

The high costs of novel anticancer drugs have caused concern among healthcare stakeholders. To address the knowledge gap on the proportion of survival benefit with the related economic expenditure, we aimed to assess the correlation between the costs and value of innovative drugs targeted to specific tumours, before and after price negotiation policy implementation.

Methods

We identified new drugs for lung and breast cancer that entered the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) through price negotiation from 2016 to 2023. Therapeutic value consisted of traditional clinical endpoints, like the percentage improvement of overall survival (ΔOS%) and progression-free survival (ΔPFS%), and the quantified gains of the American Society of Clinical Oncology Value Framework (ASCO-VF) and the European Society for Medical Oncology Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS). We calculated monthly drug costs and used Spearman's correlation coefficient and Cohen's kappa statistics for statistical analysis.

Results

Twenty-nine innovative price-negotiated drugs were collected between 2016 and 2023. The median monthly costs were US$3381.31 out of NRDL and US$1095.88 within NRDL, with an ΔOS% of 22.24% (IQR = 6.45-29.48) and a ΔPFS% of 83.82% (IQR = 50.41-104.05). The median ASCO-VF score was 40.98, and 17 drugs scored the meaningful benefit of ESMO-MCBS. We found no association between clinical benefits and their costs before and after NRDL, either overall or for specific cancers. The agreement between the two frameworks was stable.

Conclusions

The negotiation policy decreased medication costs, but did not generate the expected correlation between the value and costs of anticancer drugs. Comprehensive value assessments need to be performed in the future to explore more in-depth findings and promote the affordability and availability of effective anticancer drugs.

Inferring cancer disease response from radiology reports using large language models with data augmentation and prompting

OBJECTIVE

To assess large language models on their ability to accurately infer cancer disease response from free-text radiology reports.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We assembled 10 602 computed tomography reports from cancer patients seen at a single institution. All reports were classified into: no evidence of disease, partial response, stable disease, or progressive disease. We applied transformer models, a bidirectional long short-term memory model, a convolutional neural network model, and conventional machine learning methods to this task. Data augmentation using sentence permutation with consistency loss as well as prompt-based fine-tuning were used on the best-performing models. Models were validated on a hold-out test set and an external validation set based on Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) classifications.

RESULTS

The best-performing model was the GatorTron transformer which achieved an accuracy of 0.8916 on the test set and 0.8919 on the RECIST validation set. Data augmentation further improved the accuracy to 0.8976. Prompt-based fine-tuning did not further improve accuracy but was able to reduce the number of training reports to 500 while still achieving good performance.

DISCUSSION

These models could be used by researchers to derive progression-free survival in large datasets. It may also serve as a decision support tool by providing clinicians an automated second opinion of disease response.

CONCLUSIONS

Large clinical language models demonstrate potential to infer cancer disease response from radiology reports at scale. Data augmentation techniques are useful to further improve performance. Prompt-based fine-tuning can significantly reduce the size of the training dataset.

Comparison of clinical outcomes among cancer patients treated in and out of clinical trials

BACKGROUND

It is unknown if participation in a cancer clinical trial confers clinical benefits to patients. There is not enough scientific evidence in this regard and the available publications are scarce and provide ambiguous and limited information.

OBJECTIVE

Compare overall and progression-free survival and response to treatment among those who met the eligibility criteria and accepted to participate and those who refused to participate in cancer clinical trials.

METHODS

An observational cross-sectional study with an analytical component was carried out, which included patients diagnosed with cancer who participated in phase III clinical trials and patients who, being eligible, refused to participate. The patients were cared for at the National Institute of Cancerology in Colombia between 2019 and 2022. Analysis of differences in proportions and means of sociodemographic and clinical variables was included; overall survival and progression-free survival time were described and the survival curves between groups were compared. Variables related to survival were determined using a Cox regression model and Hazard Ratios were calculated.

RESULTS

62 women and 50 men were included. In the women group, we found a statistical association between clinical trial participation and non-serious events adverse and progression. The stable disease and complete response were higher in participants than in refusers. The median progression-free survival for refusers was 7,4 m meantime for participants the median was not reached and 74,1% remained without progression at 28 months. In the men group, we also found a statistical association between clinical trial participation and the occurrence of non-serious events adverse meanwhile there were no significant differences in overall response, progression, and death, even though the proportion of progression was minor in participants 20% vs. refusers 26% respectively. The median survival was not reached for any group, even though in the participants group 55,2% were still alive at month 20 and in the refusers group still alive at 56,8% at month 45. Covariables included for the multivariate Cox regression only age had a statistical association with overall survival in the women's group and the men group any covariables reached statistical association.

CONCLUSION

It can be considered that participation in clinical trials could give participants a better response to treatment, without increasing the probability of death and with the probability of decreasing the progression of the disease. Participation in trials could improve the outcomes of clinical response rates, no change in overall survival, and progression-free.

Value of central review of RECIST v1.1 outcomes in the AGITG INTEGRATE randomised phase 2 international trial for advanced oesophago-gastric cancer

PURPOSE

Activity estimates should be accurately evaluated in phase 2 clinical trials to ensure appropriate decisions about proceeding to phase 3 trials. RECIST v1.1. progression-free survival (PFS) is a common endpoint in oncology; however, it can be influenced by assessment criteria and trial design. We assessed the value of central adjudication of investigator-assessed PFS times of participants in a double-blind, randomised phase 2 trial evaluating regorafenib versus placebo in advanced gastro-oesophageal cancer (AGITG INTEGRATE) to inform plans for central review in future trials.

METHODS

We calculated the proportion of participants with a disagreement between the site investigator assessment and blinded independent central review and in whom central review resulted in a change, then evaluated the effect of central review on study conclusions by comparing hazard ratios (HRs) for PFS based on site review versus central review. Post-progression unblinding was assessed with similar methods. Simulation studies explored the effect of differential and non-differential measurement error on treatment effect estimation and study power.

RESULTS

Disagreements between site assessments versus central review occurred in 8/147 (5.4%) participants, 5 resulting in amended date of progression (3.4%). PFS HRs (sites vs central review progression dates) were similar (0.39 vs 0.40). RECIST progression occurred in 82/86 (95%) of cases where post-progression unblinding was requested by the site investigator.

CONCLUSIONS

Blinded independent central review was feasible and supported the reliability of site assessments, trial results, and conclusions. Modelling showed that when treatment effects were large and outcome assessments blinded, central review was unlikely to affect conclusions.

The impact of palliative radiotherapy on health-related quality of life in patients with head and neck cancer - Results of a multicenter prospective cohort study

Purpose

Palliative radiotherapy for patients with head and neck cancer can be used to alleviate symptoms. Only a few studies have investigated its impact on patient-reported outcomes (PRO). Therefore, we conducted a prospective multicenter observational study. The primary objective was to assess changes in health-related quality of life (HrQoL) per PRO.

Methods

Eligibility criteria included i.) head and neck cancer and ii.) palliative radiotherapy indicated (EQD_2Gy < 60 Gy). The primary follow-up date was eight weeks after radiotherapy (t_8w). PRO measures included the EORTC QLQ-C30 and EORTC QLQ-H&N43 and pain per Numeric Rating Scale (NRS). Per protocol, five PRO domains were to be reported in detail as well as PRO domains corresponding to a primary and secondary symptom as determined by the individual patient. We defined a minimal important difference (MID) of 10 points.

Results

From 06/2020 to 06/2022, 61 patients were screened and 21 patients were included. Due to death or decline in health-status, HrQoL data was available for 18 patients at the first fraction and for eight patients at t_8w. The MID was not met for the predefined domains in terms of mean values as compared from first fraction to t_8w. Individually in those patients with available HrQoL data at t_8w, 71% (5/7) improved in their primary and 40% (2/5) in their secondary symptom domain reaching the MID from first fraction to t_8w, respectively. There was a significant improvement in pain per NRS in those patients with available data at t_8w per Wilcoxon signed rank test (p = 0.041). Acute mucositis of grade ≥3 per CTCAE v5.0 occurred in 44% (8/18) of the patients. The median overall survival was 11 months.

Conclusion

Despite low patient numbers and risk of selection bias, our study shows some evidence of a benefit from palliative radiotherapy for head and neck cancer as measured by PRO.German Clinical Trial Registry identifier: DRKS00021197.

Dual neoadjuvant blockade plus chemotherapy versus monotherapy for the treatment of women with non-metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

We aimed to determine the effect of dual anti-HER2 blockade compared to monotherapy on clinically important outcomes.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic review updated until July 2022. The outcomes included pathological complete response (pCR), clinical response, event-free survival, and overall survival.

RESULTS

We identified eleven randomized clinical trials (2836 patients). When comparing paclitaxel plus dual treatment versus paclitaxel plus trastuzumab or lapatinib, dual treatment was associated with a higher probability of achieving a pathological complete response (OR 2.88, 95% CI 2.02-4.10). Addition of a taxane to an anthracycline plus cyclophosphamide and fluorouracil, plus lapatinib or trastuzumab, showed that the dual treatment was better than lapatinib alone (OR 2.47, 95% CI 1.41-4.34), or trastuzumab alone (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.13-3.16). Dual treatment may result in an increase in survival outcomes and tumour clinical response, although such benefits are not consistent for all the combinations studied.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of dual blockade with combinations of trastuzumab and pertuzumab can be recommended for the neoadjuvant treatment of women with HER2-positive breast cancer. PROSPERO Registration number: CRD42018110273.

Outcomes and endpoints of relevance in gynecologic cancer clinical trials

Drug development is paramount to improve outcomes in patients with gynecologic cancers. A randomized clinical trial should measure whether a clinically relevant improvement is detected with the new intervention compared with the standard of care, using reproductible and appropriate endpoints. Clinically meaningful improvements in overall survival and/or quality of life (QoL) are the gold standards to measure benefit of new therapeutic strategies. Alternative endpoints, such as progression-free survival, provide an earlier measure of the effect of the new therapeutic drug, and are not confounded by the effect of subsequent lines of therapy. Yet, its surrogacy with improved overall survival or QoL is unclear in gynecologic malignancies. Of relevance to studies assessing maintenance strategies are other time-to-event endpoints, such as progression-free survival two and time to second subsequent treatment, which provide valuable information on the disease control in the longer term. Translational and biomarker studies are increasingly being incorporated into gynecologic oncology clinical trials, as they may allow understanding of the biology of the disease, resistance mechanisms, and enable a better selection of patients who might benefit from the new therapeutic strategy. Globally, the endpoint selection of a clinical trial will differ according to the type of study, population, disease setting, and type of therapeutic strategy. This review provides an overview of primary and secondary endpoint selection of relevance for gynecologic oncology clinical trials.

Comprehensive evaluation of surrogate endpoints to predict overall survival in trials with PD1/PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitors plus chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

PD1/PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have revolutionized cancer treatment. Although there is controversy about the accuracy of surrogate endpoints in the ICI setting to predict overall survival (OS), these endpoints are commonly used in confirmatory trials. Here we aimed to explore the validity of classical and novel surrogate endpoints in randomised controlled trials (RCT) that combine ICI plus chemotherapy (CT) in the first-line setting.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A systematic review was conducted to identify RCT investigating anti-PD1/PD-L1 drugs plus CT versus CT alone. We performed (i) arm-level analysis to evaluate predictors of median OS (mOS) and (ii) comparison-level analysis for OS hazard ratio (HR) estimations. Linear regression models weighted by trial size were fitted and adjusted R² values were reported.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine RCTs involving 22,341 patients met the inclusion criteria (17 non-small cell lung, 9 gastroesophageal and 13 in other cancers) with ten different ICI under study. Overall, ICI plus CT improved OS (HR = 0.76; 95%CI: 0.73-0.80). In the arm-level analysis, the best mOS prediction was obtained with a new endpoint that combines median duration of response and ORR (mDoR-ORR) and with median PFS (R² = 0.5 both). In the comparison-level analysis, PFS HR showed a moderate association with OS HR (R² = 0.52). Early OS read-outs were highly associated with final OS outcomes (R² = 0.80).

CONCLUSIONS

The association between surrogate endpoints and OS in first-line RCT combining anti-PD1/PD-L1 and CT is moderate-low. Early OS read-outs showed a good association with final OS HR while the mDOR-ORR endpoint could help to better design confirmatory trials after single-arm phase II trials.

Projecting overall survival in health-economic models: uncertainty and maturity of data

OBJECTIVE

As lifetime horizons are considered for economic evaluations, the Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimate is used to extrapolate survival in cases of immature overall survival (OS) data. This study estimated the error induced by the choice of distribution when extrapolating different levels of OS maturity.

METHODS

Fifteen phase 3 trials reporting KM estimates of OS where at least 70% maturity (i.e. 70% of the population had died during follow-up) were included and compared to artificially created truncated data (30 and 50% maturity). Individual patient-data were reproduced using the Guyot algorithm based on digitized KM curves. Parametric survival distributions were fit for each arm in each study, for each maturity level, using the same time horizon (equal to the maximum follow-up). For each KM curve, the best distribution was chosen based on visual inspection, Akaike/Bayesian information criteria, and external validity. Outcomes were measured as life expectancy in months (LM) and life months gained (LMG).

RESULTS

The Weibull (33%), log-logistic (32%) and log-normal (27%) were most often selected as the best fitting distribution. Compared to LM at full maturity, LM was overestimated in 23 and 40% of cases, at 30 and 50% maturity, respectively. Mean absolute error was 2.12months at 30% maturity, and decreased to 0.88months at 50% maturity. When comparing to mature data, the mean percentage of error in LMG was 126.4 and 62.4% at 30 and 50% maturity, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The extent of OS maturity increases the risk of error when projecting long-term life expectancy for economic models. Even marginal gains in OS maturity result in more accurate estimations and should be considered when developing models.

An integrated PK/PD model investigating the impact of tumor size and systemic safety on animal survival in SW1990 pancreatic cancer xenograft

Survival is one of the most important endpoints in cancer therapy, and parametric survival analysis could comprehensively reveal the overall result of disease progression, drug efficacy, toxicity as well as their interactions. In this study we investigated the efficacy and toxicity of dexamethasone (DEX) combined with gemcitabine (GEM) in pancreatic cancer xenograft. Nude mice bearing SW1990 pancreatic cancer cells derived tumor were treated with DEX (4 mg/kg, i.g.) and GEM (15 mg/kg, i.v.) alone or in combination repeatedly (QD, Q3D, Q7D) until the death of animal or the end of study. Tumor volumes and net body weight (NBW) were assessed every other day. Taking NBW as a systemic safety indicator, an integrated pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model was developed to quantitatively describe the impact of tumor size and systemic safety on animal survival. The PK/PD models with time course data for tumor size and NBW were established, respectively, in a sequential manner; a parametric time-to-event (TTE) model was also developed based on the longitudinal PK/PD models to describe the survival results of the SW1990 tumor-bearing mice. These models were evaluated and externally validated. Only the mice with good tumor growth inhibition and relatively stable NBW had an improved survival result after DEX and GEM combination therapy, and the simulations based on the parametric TTE model showed that NBW played more important role in animals' survival compared with tumor size. The established model in this study demonstrates that tumor size was not always the most important reason for cancer-related death, and parametric survival analysis together with safety issues was also important in the evaluation of oncology therapies in preclinical studies.

Prognostic Implications of Endoscopic Obstruction in Patients with Pathological Stage II Colon Cancers: a Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The prognostic effect of endoscopic obstruction (eOB) on the survival of stage II colon cancer patients and the role of eOB in guiding postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy of stage II colon cancer are little known.

METHODS

In this retrospective, single-center cohort study, patients who had undergone curative surgery and preoperative colonoscope for stage II colon carcinoma were included. The eOB was defined as severe luminal colon obstruction that prevented the standard colonoscope from passing beyond the tumor. The association between eOB and stage II colon cancer survival and the predictive role of eOB for adjuvant chemotherapy were evaluated using multivariate Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 1102 included patients, 616 (55.9%) had eOB and 486 (44.1%) had no eOB. The median follow-up was 49 months (interquartile range, 38-68 months). Kaplan-Meier curves showed that patients with eOB had poor 5-year overall survival (OS; 85.3% vs. 95.3%, p < 0.001) compared to patients without eOB. Five-year disease-free survival (DFS; 78.5% vs. 87.6%, p = 0.004) was also poor in these patients. Multivariate analysis demonstrated eOB was a significant prognostic factor for poor OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.531, p < 0.001), but not for DFS (p = 0.081). Even when patients with clinical colonic obstruction were excluded from the population with eOB, the worse OS (HR = 2.262, p = 0.001) was observed. The OS and DFS of eOB patients improved slightly after adjuvant chemotherapy, but there was no statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Stage II colon cancer patients with eOB have a poor prognosis. However, whether eOB can guide adjuvant chemotherapy still needs further study.

Evaluation of efficacy and safety for compound kushen injection combined with intraperitoneal chemotherapy for patients with malignant ascites: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives: Compound Kushen injection (CKI) combined with intraperitoneal chemotherapy (IPC) is widely used in the treatment of malignant ascites (MA). However, evidence about its efficacy and safety remains limited. This review aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of CKI combined with IPC for the treatment of MA. Methods: Protocol of this review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022304259). Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on the efficacy and safety of IPC with CKI for the treatment of patients with MA were searched through 12 electronic databases and 2 clinical trials registration platforms from inception until 20 January 2023. The Cochrane risk-of-bias tool was used to assess the quality of the included trials through the risk of bias assessment. We included RCTs that compared IPC single used or CKI combined with IPC for patients with MA schedule to start IPC. The primary outcome was identified as an objective response rate (ORR), while the secondary outcomes were identified as the quality of life (QoL), survival time, immune functions, and adverse drug reactions (ADRs). The Revman5.4 and Stata17 software were used to calculate the risk ratio (RR) at 95% confidence intervals (CI) for binary outcomes and the mean difference (MD) at 95% CI for continuous outcomes. The certainty of the evidence was assessed according to the GRADE criteria. Results: A total of 17 RCTs were assessed, which included 1200 patients. The risk of bias assessment of the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool revealed that one study was rated high risk and the remaining as unclear or low risk. Meta-analysis revealed that CKI combined with IPC had an advantage in increasing ORR (RR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.43, p < 0.00001) and QoL (RR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.83, p < 0.0001) when compared with IPC alone. Moreover, the combined treatment group showed a lower incidence of myelosuppression (RR = 0.51, 95%CI 0.40-0.64, p < 0.00001), liver dysfunction (RR = 0.33, 95%CI 0.16 to 0.70, p = 0.004), renal dysfunction (RR = 0.39, 95%CI 0.17 to 0.89, p = 0.02), and fever (RR = 0.51, 95%CI 0.35 to 0.75, p = 0.0007) compared to those of the control group. The quality of evidence assessment through GRADE criteria showed that ORR, myelosuppression, and fever were rated moderate, renal dysfunction and liver dysfunction were rated low, and QoL and abdominal pain were rated very low. Conclusion: The efficacy and safety of CKI combined with IPC were superior to that with IPC alone for the treatment of MA, which indicates the potentiality of the treatment. However, more high-quality RCTs are required to validate this conclusion. Systematic Review Registration: [https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022304259], identifier [PROSPERO 2022 CRD42022304259].

Objective Measurements of Physical Function to Predict Survival in Patients with Metastatic Cancer

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Physician-reported performance status (PS) constitutes the established method for stratifying oncologic patients in therapeutic decision-making. Objective measurements of physical function may further refine prognostication.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

In this prospective observational study, 103 patients with metastatic cancer who were referred for systemic therapy initiation were evaluated. PS was evaluated using the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG-PS) and five objective physical function measurements (handgrip strength [HGS], chair stand test [CST], timed up and go [TUG] test, 4-m gait speed [GS] test, and short physical performance battery [SPPB] test). Overall survival and treatment complications were recorded from the medical records.

RESULTS

Patients with low PS according to ECOG-PS (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.80, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.84, 7.80), HGS (HR: 2.37, 95% CI: 1.24, 4.55), SPPB (HR: 3.43, 95% CI: 1.55, 7.57), GS (HR: 3.03, 95% CI: 1.44, 6.38), and TUG (HR: 5.16, 95% CI: 2.19, 12.14) had shorter overall survival after adjustment for sex, age, symptomatology, comorbidity, percentage of weight loss, and tumor localization.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the studied objective physical function measurements, HGS, SPPB, GS, and TUG were independent predictors of survival in a sample of patients with metastatic cancer, with TUG showing the highest effect size.

Surrogate Endpoints as Predictors of Overall Survival in Metastatic Urothelial Cancer: A Trial-level Analysis

Background

Surrogate endpoints (SEs), such as progression-free survival (PFS) and objective response rate (ORR), are frequently used in clinical trials. The relationship between SEs and overall survival (OS) has not been well described in metastatic urothelial cancer (MUC).

Objective

We evaluated trial-level data to assess the relationship between SEs and OS. We hypothesize a moderate surrogacy relationship between both PFS and ORR with OS.

Design setting and participants

We systematically reviewed phase 2/3 trials in MUC with two or more treatment arms, and report PFS and/or ORR, and OS.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Linear regression was performed, and the coefficient of determination (R²) and surrogate threshold effect (STE) estimate were determined between PFS/ORR and OS.

Results and limitations

Of 3791 search results, 59 trials and 62 comparisons met the inclusion criteria. Of the 53 trials that reported PFS, 31 (58%) reported proportional hazard regression for PFS and OS. Linear regression across trials demonstrated an R² of 0.60 between hazard ratio (HR) for PFS (HR^PFS) and HR for OS (HR^OS), and an STE of 0.41. Linear regression of ΔPFS (median PFS in months of the treatment arm - that of the control arm) and ΔOS demonstrated an R² of 0.12 and an STE of 14.1 mo. Thirty trials reported ORRs. Linear regression for ORR^ratio and HR^OS among all trials found an R² of 0.08; an STE of 95% was not reached at any value and ΔORR and HR^OS similarly demonstrated a poor correlation with an R² value of 0.03.

Conclusions

PFS provides only a moderate level of surrogacy for OS; An HR^PFS of ≤0.41 provides 95% confidence of OS improvement. ORR is weakly correlated with OS and should be de-emphasized in MUC clinical trials. When PFS is discussed, proportional hazard regression should be reported.

Patient summary

We examined the relationship between surrogate endpoints, common outcomes in clinical trials, with survival in urothelial cancer trials. Progression-free survival is moderately correlated, while objective response rate had a poor correlation with survival and should be de-emphasized as a primary endpoint.

The Evolving Scenario in the Assessment of Radiological Response for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the Era of Immunotherapy: Strengths and Weaknesses of Surrogate Endpoints

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a challenging malignancy characterised by clinical and biological heterogeneity, independent of the stage. Despite the application of surveillance programs, a substantial proportion of patients are diagnosed at advanced stages when curative treatments are no longer available. The landscape of systemic therapies has been rapidly growing over the last decade, and the advent of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) has changed the paradigm of systemic treatments. The coexistence of the tumour with underlying cirrhosis exposes patients with HCC to competing events related to tumour progression and/or hepatic decompensation. Therefore, it is relevant to adopt proper clinical endpoints to assess the extent of treatment benefit. While overall survival (OS) is the most accepted endpoint for phase III randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and drug approval, it is affected by many limitations. To overcome these limits, several clinical and radiological outcomes have been used. For instance, progression-free survival (PFS) is a useful endpoint to evaluate the benefit of sequential treatments, since it is not influenced by post-progression treatments, unlike OS. Moreover, radiological endpoints such as time to progression (TTP) and objective response rate (ORR) are frequently adopted. Nevertheless, the surrogacy between these endpoints and OS in the setting of unresectable HCC (uHCC) remains uncertain. Since most of the surrogate endpoints are radiology-based (e.g., PFS, TTP, ORR), the use of standardised tools is crucial for the evaluation of radiological response. The optimal way to assess the radiological response has been widely debated, and many criteria have been proposed over the years. Furthermore, none of the criteria have been validated for immunotherapy in advanced HCC. The coexistence of the underlying chronic liver disease and the access to several lines of treatments highlight the urgent need to capture early clinical benefit and the need for standardised radiological criteria to assess cancer response when using ICIs in mono- or combination therapies. Here, we review the most commonly used clinical and radiological endpoints for trial design, as well as their surrogacy with OS. We also review the criteria for radiological response to treatments for HCC, analysing the major issues and the potential future perspectives.

Clinical endpoints in trials of palliative radiotherapy: A systematic meta-research analysis

PURPOSE

Up to 50% of radiotherapy courses are delivered in palliative intent for various indications. Despite the large number of treated patients, we know little about the choice of endpoints in trials of palliative radiotherapy. Our primary aim was, therefore, to analyze primary endpoints in trials of palliative radiotherapy.

METHODS

We conducted a pre-registered (https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/GMCAF) meta-research analysis searching Pubmed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and "ClinicalTrials.gov" for clinical trials of palliative radiotherapy published 1990-2020. Endpoints were categorized in "patient-centered endpoints", including overall survival and patient-reported outcomes, and "tumor-centered endpoints" such as local control. The remainder were "other endpoints" including toxicity or observer-rated symptoms. We applied descriptive statistics to summarize data and logistic regression to assess if year of publication predicted the choice of primary endpoints.

RESULTS

Of 7379 records screened, 292 were eligible. Trials were characterized by small sample sizes and use of external beam radiotherapy for metastases or thoracic primaries. Median patient age was 64 and median ECOG was 1. Only 64.4%(145/225) of published trials clearly stated their primary endpoint. Published trials employed a "patient-centered primary endpoint" in 45.5%(66/145) and a "tumor-centered primary endpoint" in 17.3%(25/145) of the cases. There was no statistically significant trend in time for the use of "patient-centered primary endpoints". Registered ongoing trials used a "patient-centered primary endpoint" in 32.8%(22/67) and a "tumor-centered primary endpoint" in 26.9%(18/67) of the cases.

CONCLUSION

Although "patient-centered primary endpoints" appear relatively prevalent in published trials of palliative radiotherapy, their use is still suboptimal and appears to be lower in currently ongoing trials.

Validating Restricted Mean Survival Time Estimates From Reconstructed Kaplan-Meier Data Against Original Trial Individual Patient Data From Trials Conducted by the Canadian Cancer Trials Group

OBJECTIVES

The development of novel cancer therapies, including immuno-oncology agents, has increased interest in reconstructed individual patient data (IPD) based restricted mean survival time (RMST) analyses. Additionally, reconstructed IPD-based RMST is recommended in cost-effectiveness analyses when original trial IPD are not available. Nevertheless, recently concerns regarding potential bias of reconstructed-IPD RMST have been presented, because reconstructed-IPD RMSTs have not been validated and previous validation endpoints may not capture the entire Kaplan-Meier (KM) curve, especially the "tail." Our study aims to validate the recommended method of IPD reconstruction by comparing reconstructed IPD- and original trial IPD-based RMST.

METHODS

Canadian Cancer Trials Group trials from 1990 to 2017 were included. Overall survival and progression-free survival IPD were reconstructed based on published KM curves using the Guyot method. Analysts were blinded to original trial IPD. RMST was calculated at 1 year and over the entire KM curve. Reconstructed-IPD and original trial-IPD (gold-standard) RMSTs were compared for accuracy and predictive error via mean deviation, mean absolute error (MAE), mean percentage bias, and Bland-Altman plots and across KM curve quality (vector traced or bitmapped).

RESULTS

We identified 39 trials. The mean deviation, MAE, and mean percentage bias of RMST between the reconstructed IPD and original trial IPD were small. In particular, the mean deviation was -0.01 months and -0.04 months, MAE was 0.19 months and 0.24 months, and mean percentage bias was 0.82% and 0.84% in overall survival KM curves in control and experimental arms, respectively. Accuracy was generally not associated with KM curve quality.

CONCLUSIONS

RMST derived from reconstructed IPD displayed excellent accuracy and predictive error compared with the gold standard. Reconstructed IPD could be used to calculate RMST in lieu of original trial IPD, to facilitate decision making for clinicians, researchers, and policy makers.

Prices and Clinical Benefit of National Price-Negotiated Anticancer Medicines in China

BACKGROUND

High prices of anticancer medicines have increased the economic burden for both patients and health insurance systems. Since 2017, China has implemented national price negotiations for medicines, relying on evidence from health technology assessments. We aim to assess the relation between negotiated price and value of anticancer medicines listed in China's National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL).

METHODS

For all price-negotiated anticancer medicines and corresponding indications listed in the latest NRDL between 2017 and 2020, we collected their clinical outcomes data, including overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), in supporting trials. Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated to estimate the association between the daily cost and clinical benefit of each indication.

RESULTS

In total, 75 indications of 46 branded anticancer medicines were included for analysis. The median daily costs for the anticancer therapies that had gone through negotiation in 2017-2020 were US$87.6, US$71.8, US$58.9, and US$39.7, respectively. For indications supported by randomized trials, no correlation between daily costs and OS and PFS benefit of the price-negotiated cancer therapies was observed (N = 41, r = -0.05, and N = 49, r = 0.04, respectively). For cancer indications newly listed in NRDL in 2020, the association between their daily cost and OS benefit was -0.78 (N = 4, p = 0.221) and 0.01 (N = 8, p = 0.986) before and after the price negotiation.

CONCLUSION

Though the negotiation policy decreased prices of anticancer medicines in China, no statistically significant correlation was observed between their daily costs and clinical benefits. A more transparent and credible pricing approach needs to be established to promote value-based anticancer medicines and healthcare system efficiency.

Analysis of a Real-World Progression Variable and Related Endpoints for Patients with Five Different Cancer Types

INTRODUCTION

We previously demonstrated that real-world progression (rwP) can be ascertained from unstructured electronic health record (EHR)-derived documents using a novel abstraction approach for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (base case). The objective of this methodological study was to assess the reliability, clinical relevance, and the need for disease-specific adjustments of this abstraction approach in five additional solid tumor types.

METHODS

Patients with metastatic breast cancer (mBC), advanced melanoma (aMel), small cell lung cancer (SCLC), metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), and advanced gastric/esophageal cancer (aGEC) were selected from a real-world database. Disease-specific additions to the base case were implemented as needed. The resulting abstraction approach was applied to each disease cohort to capture rwP events and dates. To provide comprehensive clinical context, real-world progression-free survival (rwPFS) and time to progression (rwTTP) were compared to real-world overall survival (rwOS), time to next treatment (rwTTNT), and time to treatment discontinuation (rwTTD). Endpoint estimates were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Correlations between real-world endpoints and rwOS were calculated using Spearman's ρ.

RESULTS

Additions to the base-case rwP abstraction approach were required for mBC, aMel, and SCLC. Inter-abstractor agreement for rwP occurrence, irrespective of date, ranged from 88% to 97%. Occurrence of clinically relevant downstream events (new antineoplastic systemic therapy start, antineoplastic systemic therapy end, or death relative to the rwP event) ranged from 59% (aMel) to 72% (mBC). Median rwPFS ranged from 3.7 (aMel) to 7.7 (mBC) months, and median rwTTP ranged from 4.6 (aMel) to 8.3 (mRCC) months. Correlations between rwOS and rwPFS ranged from 0.52 (aMel) to 0.82 (SCLC). The correlation between rwOS and rwTTD was often lower relative to other comparisons (range 0.40-0.62).

CONCLUSION

Derivation of a rwP variable from EHR documentation is feasible and reliable across the five solid tumors. Endpoint analyses show that rwP produces clinically meaningful information.

Identifying and handling unbalanced baseline characteristics in a non-randomized, controlled, multicenter social care nurse intervention study for patients in advanced stages of cancer

PURPOSE

Given the psychosocial burdens patients in advanced stages of cancer face, innovative care concepts are needed. At the same time, such vulnerable patient groups are difficult to reach for participation in intervention studies and randomized patient inclusion may not be feasible. This article aims to identify systematic biases respectively selection effects occurring during the recruitment phase and to discuss their potential causes based on a non-randomized, multicenter intervention study with patients in advanced stages of cancer.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with at least one of 16 predefined cancers were recruited at four hospitals in three German cities. The effect of social care nurses' continuous involvement in acute oncology wards was measured by health-related quality of life (EORTC QLQ-C30), information and participation preferences, decisional conflicts, doctor-patient communication, health literacy and symptom perception. Absolute standardized mean difference was calculated as a standardized effect size to test baseline characteristics balance between the intervention and control groups.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 362 patients, 150 in the intervention and 212 in the control group. Except for gender, both groups differed in relevant socio-demographic characteristics, e.g. regarding age and educational background. With respect to the distribution of diagnoses, the intervention group showed a higher symptom burden than the control group. Moreover, the control group reported better quality of life at baseline compared to the intervention group (52.6 points (SD 21.7); 47.8 points (SD 22.0), ASMD = 0.218, p = 0.044).

CONCLUSION

Overall, the intervention group showed more social and health vulnerability than the control group. Among other factors, the wide range of diagnoses included and structural variation between the recruiting clinics increased the risk for bias. We recommend a close, continuous monitoring of relevant social and health-related characteristics during the recruitment phase as well as the use of appropriate statistical analysis strategies for adjustment, such as propensity score methods.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS-ID: DRKS00013640 ); registered on 29th December 2017.

Health-related quality of life in cancer immunotherapy: a systematic perspective, using causal loop diagrams

Purpose

System science offers a unique set of tools, including causal loop diagrams (CLDs), for stakeholders to better grasp the complexity of factors surrounding quality of life. Because the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of cancer immunotherapy patients exists within an intricate system affected by and affecting many factors across multiple dimensions, the development of a systems-level model can provide a powerful framework to aid the understanding of this complexity. We developed a CLD for HRQoL of cancer immunotherapy patients.

Methods

We first applied a literature-based approach to construct a CLD for patients following immunotherapy. We then iteratively reviewed and enhanced the CLD through interviews with subject matter experts.

Results

Based on the reviewed literature and subject matter expert input, we produced a CLD representing the system surrounding cancer immunotherapy patients’ HRQoL. Several feedback loops are identified that span clinical experiences, oncology teams’ perceptions about immunotherapy, social support structures, and further research and development in cancer immunotherapy, in addition to other components. The CLD enables visualization of thought experiments regarding how a change anywhere in the system can ultimately worsen or improve patients’ HRQoL.

Conclusion

The CLD illustrates the valuable contribution of a systems perspective to quality-of-life research. This systems-based qualitative representation gives insight on strategies to inhibit harmful effects, enhance beneficial effects, and inherent tradeoffs within the system. The CLD identifies gaps in the literature and offers a communication tool for diverse stakeholders. Our research method provides an example for studying the complexities of quality of life in other health domains.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11136-022-03110-5.

An 11-Gene Signature Based on Treatment Responsiveness Predicts Radiation Therapy Survival Benefit Among Breast Cancer Patients

Purpose

We developed a strategy of building prognosis gene signature based on clinical treatment responsiveness to predict radiotherapy survival benefit in breast cancer patients.

Methods and Materials

Analyzed data came from the public database. PFS was used as an indicator of clinical treatment responsiveness. WGCNA was used to identify the most relevant modules to radiotherapy response. Based on the module genes, Cox regression model was used to build survival prognosis signature to distinguish the benefit group of radiotherapy. An external validation was also performed.

Results

In the developed dataset, MEbrown module with 534 genes was identified by WGCNA, which was most correlated to the radiotherapy response of patients. A number of 11 hub genes were selected to build the survival prognosis signature. Patients that were divided into radio-sensitivity group and radio-resistant group based on the signature risk score had varied survival benefit. In developed dataset, the 3-, 5-, and 10-year AUC of the signature were 0.814 (CI95%: 0.742–0.905), 0.781 (CI95%: 0.682–0.880), and 0.762 (CI95%: 0.626–0.897), respectively. In validation dataset, the 3- and 5-year AUC of the signature were 0.706 (CI95%: 0.523–0.889) and 0.743 (CI95%: 0.595–0.891). The signature had higher predictive power than clinical factors alone and had more clinical prognosis efficiency. Functional enrichment analysis revealed that the identified genes were mainly enriched in immune-related processes. Further immune estimated analysis showed the difference in distribution of immune micro-environment between radio-sensitivity group and radio-resistant group.

Conclusions

The 11-gene signature may reflect differences in tumor immune micro-environment that underlie the differential response to radiation therapy and could guide clinical-decision making related to radiation in breast cancer patients.

Does bevacizumab carry a hope for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer in the era of immunotherapy?

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) has a very high rate of recurrence. Our aim is to investigate the efficacy of bevacizumab, platinum and paclitaxel as first-line in metastatic TNBC (mTNBC). This study included 54 female patients with mTNBC. They received bevacizumab, carboplatin and paclitaxel every 21 day for six cycles then who progressed shifted to second-line chemotherapy and the responders continue another two cycles. The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 27 months [95% confidence interval (CI), 17.019-36.981]. There were two factors that affect PFS; visceral only metastasis (hazard ratio, 0.23; P =  0.05) and performance status 0 (hazard ratio = 0.16; P = 0.02) with C-index 0.77. The median overall survival (OS) was 55 months (95% CI, 38.973-71.027). There were two factors that affect OS; type of presentation (hazard ratio = 7.91; P = 0.02) and performance status 0 (hazard ratio = 0.12; P = 0.01) with C-index 0.73. In the final evaluation, three factors have their print on achieving either stable disease (SD) or complete response (CR). Patients having ≤3 sites of metastasis odds ratio (OR) 3.92 (P = 0.02), patients with visceral only metastasis OR was 13.20 (P = 0.001), those with performance status 0 had the highest OR 19.5 (P = 0.001) and the percentage of this prediction was 64.8, 70.4 and 70.4%, respectively. Bevacizumab, carboplatin and paclitaxel were well tolerated, continuation of bevacizumab is recommended as long as SD or CR responses are obtained and tolerated.

Differential frequency in imaging-based outcome measurement: Bias in real-world oncology comparative-effectiveness studies

BACKGROUND

Comparative-effectiveness studies using real-world data (RWD) can be susceptible to surveillance bias. In solid tumor oncology studies, analyses of endpoints such as progression-free survival (PFS) are based on progression events detected by imaging assessments. This study aimed to evaluate the potential bias introduced by differential imaging assessment frequency when using electronic health record (EHR)-derived data to investigate the comparative effectiveness of cancer therapies.

METHODS

Using a nationwide de-identified EHR-derived database, we first analyzed imaging assessment frequency patterns in patients diagnosed with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC). We used those RWD inputs to develop a discrete event simulation model of two treatments where disease progression was the outcome and PFS was the endpoint. Using this model, we induced bias with differential imaging assessment timing and quantified its effect on observed versus true treatment effectiveness. We assessed percent bias in the estimated hazard ratio (HR).

RESULTS

The frequency of assessments differed by cancer treatment types. In simulated comparative-effectiveness studies, PFS HRs estimated using real-world imaging assessment frequencies differed from the true HR by less than 10% in all scenarios (range: 0.4% to -9.6%). The greatest risk of biased effect estimates was found comparing treatments with widely different imaging frequencies, most exaggerated in disease settings where time to progression is very short.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided evidence that the frequency of imaging assessments to detect disease progression can differ by treatment type in real-world patients with cancer and may induce some bias in comparative-effectiveness studies in some situations.