Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study

A novel approach to model the role of mobility suppression and vaccinations in containing epidemics in a network of cities

This paper presents a comprehensive agent-based model for the spread of an infection in a network of cities. Directional mobility is defined between each two cities and can take different values. The work examines the role that such mobility levels play in containing the infection with various vaccination coverage and age distributions. The results indicate that mobility reduction is sufficient to control the disease under all circumstances and full lockdowns are not a necessity. It has to be reduced to different ratios depending on the vaccination level and age distribution. A key finding is that increasing vaccination coverage above a certain level does not affect the mobility suppression level required to control the infection anymore for the cases of young population and heterogeneous age distributions. By investigating several migration and commuting patterns, it is found that shutting mobility in a few local places is favored against reducing mobility over the entire country network. In addition, commuting -and not migration-influences the spread level of the infection. The work offers an exclusive combined network-based and agent-based model that makes use of randomly generated mobility matrices.

Monitoring the ventilation of living spaces to assess the risk of airborne transmission of infection using a novel Pocket CO2 Logger to track carbon dioxide concentrations in Tokyo

We employed carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration monitoring using mobile devices to identify location-specific risks for airborne infection transmission. We lent a newly developed, portable Pocket CO2 Logger to 10 participants, to be carried at all times, for an average of 8 days. The participants recorded their location at any given time as cinema, gym, hall, home, hospital, other indoors, other outgoings, pub, restaurant, university, store, transportation, or workplace. Generalized linear mixed model was used for statistical analysis, with the objective variable set to the logarithm of CO2 concentration. Analysis was performed by assigning participant identification as the random effect and location as the fixed effect. The data were collected per participant (seven males, four females), resulting in a total of 12,253 records. Statistical analysis identified three relatively poorly ventilated locations (median values > 1,000 ppm) that contributed significantly (p < 0.0001) to CO2 concentrations: homes (1,316 ppm), halls (1,173 ppm), and gyms (1005ppm). In contrast, two locations were identified to contribute significantly (p < 0.0001) to CO2 concentrations but had relatively low average values (<1,000 ppm): workplaces (705 ppm) and stores (620 ppm). The Pocket CO2 Logger can be used to visualize airborne infectious transmission risk by location to help guide recommendation regarding infectious disease policies, such as restrictions on human flow and ventilation measures and guidelines. In the future, large-scale surveys are expected to utilize the global positioning system, Wi-Fi, or Bluetooth of an individual's smartphone to improve ease and accuracy.

Secondary attack rates and determinants of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) household transmission in Pakistan: A case-ascertained prospective, longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Households are considered ideal settings for studying the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease.

METHODS

A prospective study was conducted, based on the World Health Organization FFX protocol from October 2020 to January,2021. Household contacts of laboratory-confirmed index cases were followed up for their symptomatic history, nasal swabs for RT-PCR,and blood samples for anti-SARS CoV-2 antibodies were collected at enrollment and days 7, 14 and 28. We estimated secondary attack rate (SAR), effective household case cluster size and determinants of secondary infection among susceptible household contacts using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

We enrolled 77 index cases and their 543 contacts. Out of these, 252 contacts were susceptible at the time of enrollment. There were 77 household clusters, out of which, transmission took place in 20 (25.9%) giving rise to 34 cases. The acquired secondary attack rate (SAR) was 14.0% (95% CI 9.0-18.0). The effective household case cluster size was 0.46 (95%CI 0.33,0.56). Reported symptoms of nausea and vomiting (aOR, 7.9; 95% CI, 1.4-45.5) and fatigue (aOR, 9.3; 95% CI, 3.8-22.7) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a low SARS-CoV-2 secondary attack rate in the backdrop of high seroprevalence and asymptomatic transmission among households in Karachi, Pakistan.

Substantial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through casual contact in retail stores: Evidence from matched administrative microdata on card payments and testing

This paper presents quasiexperimental evidence of Covid-19 transmission through casual contact between customers in retail stores. For a large sample of individuals in Denmark, we match card payment data, indicating exactly where and when each individual made purchases, with Covid-19 test data, indicating when each individual was tested and whether the test was positive. The resulting dataset identifies more than 100,000 instances where an infected individual made a purchase in a store and, in each instance, allows us to track the infection dynamics of other individuals who made purchases in the same store around the same time. We estimate transmissions by comparing the infection rate of exposed customers, who made a purchase within 5 min of an infected individual, and nonexposed customers, who made a purchase in the same store 16 to 30 min before. We find that exposure to an infected individual in a store increases the infection rate by around 0.12 percentage points (P < 0.001) between day 3 and day 7 after exposure. The estimates imply that transmissions in stores contributed around 0.04 to the reproduction number for the average infected individual and significantly more in the period where Omicron was the dominant variant.

Household secondary attack rate amongst the susceptible contacts of COVID-19 cases and its epidemiological profile: A retrospective study from central Gujarat, India

Introduction

Secondary attack rate (SAR) is a proportion of primary contacts developing the diseases within the incubation period upon exposure to a primary case among the total susceptible household contacts. The epidemiological profile and SAR will help in understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 for further strengthening preventive and effective control measures.

Objectives of the Study

The study was conducted with the primary objective to estimate the household SAR of COVID-19 cases at Mahisagar District, Gujarat, and to study the epidemiological profile of primary and secondary cases of COVID-19.

Methodology

A retrospective study was conducted to estimate SAR among 245 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 898 susceptible household contacts in Mahisagar district through telephonic interview and questionnaire by the Investigator team.

Results

The household SAR was calculated from the current study in Mahisagar district, Gujarat, and was 13.9%. Among primary cases, 74.7% males were affected, and among secondary cases, 52.8% females were affected. The SAR among elderly was 23.9%, and the SAR among children was 3.9%. 74.1% household contacts had developed disease among symptomatic contacts as compared to asymptomatic household contacts.

Conclusion

The household SAR in Mahisagar district, Gujarat, was found to be 13.9%. In primary cases, more males, and in secondary cases, more females were found to be affected. The household SAR was increased in elderly as compared to the younger age group. The SAR was more among the contacts of symptomatic cases than asymptomatic cases. Overall hospitalization in public hospitals was more than that in private hospitals.

Parametric analysis of the transmission dynamics during indigenous aggregated outbreaks caused by five SARS-CoV-2 strains in Nanjing, China

Background

SARS-CoV-2 strains have been of great concern due to their high infectivity and antibody evasion.

Methods

In this study, data were collected on indigenous aggregated outbreaks in Nanjing from January 2020 to December 2022, caused by five strains including the original strain, the Delta variant, and the Omicron variant (BA.2, BA.5.2, and BF.7). The basic epidemiological characteristics of infected individuals were described and then parametric analysis of transmission dynamics was performed, including the calculation of incubation period, serial interval (SI), the basic reproductive number (R0), and the household secondary attack rate (HSAR). Finally, we compared the trends of transmission dynamic parameters of different strains.

Results

The incubation period for the original strain, the Delta variant, Omicron BA.2, Omicron BA.5.2, and Omicron BF.7 were 6 d (95% CI: 3.5-7.5 d), 5 d (95% CI: 4.0-6.0 d), 3 d (95% CI: 3.0-4.0 d), 3 d (95% CI: 3.0-3.0 d), and 2 d (95% CI: 2.0-3.0 d), respectively; Also, the SI of the five strains were 5.69 d, 4.79 d, 2.7 d, 2.12 d, and 2.43 d, respectively. Notably, the incubation period and SI of the five had both a progressive shortening trend (p < 0.001); Moreover, R0 of the five were 2.39 (95% CI: 1.30-4.29), 3.73 (95% CI: 2.66-5.15), 5.28 (95% CI: 3.52-8.10), 5.54 (95% CI: 2.69-11.17), 7.39 (95% CI: 2.97-18.76), with an increasing trend gradually (p < 0.01); HSAR of the five were 25.5% (95% CI: 20.1-31.7%), 27.4% (95% CI: 22.0-33.4%), 42.9% (95% CI: 34.3-51.8%), 53.1% (95% CI: 45.0-60.9%), 41.4% (95% CI, 25.5-59.3%), also with an increasing trend (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Compared to the original strain, the incubation period and SI decreased while R0 and HSAR increased, suggesting that transmission in the population was faster and the scope of the population was wider. Overall, it's crucial to keep implementing comprehensive measures like monitoring and alert systems, herd immunization plans, and outbreak control.

Detecting changes in generation and serial intervals under varying pathogen biology, contact patterns and outbreak response

The epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission have changed over the pandemic due to emergence of new variants. A decrease in the generation or serial intervals would imply a shortened transmission timescale and, hence, outbreak response measures would need to expand at a faster rate. However, there are challenges in measuring these intervals. Alongside epidemiological changes, factors like varying delays in outbreak response, social contact patterns, dependence on the growth phase of an outbreak, and effects of exposure to multiple infectors can also influence measured generation or serial intervals. To guide real-time interpretation of variant data, we simulated concurrent changes in the aforementioned factors and estimated the statistical power to detect a change in the generation and serial interval. We compared our findings to the reported decrease or lack thereof in the generation and serial intervals of different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Our study helps to clarify contradictory outbreak observations and informs the required sample sizes under certain outbreak conditions to ensure that future studies of generation and serial intervals are adequately powered.

Serological screening in a large-scale municipal survey in Cascais, Portugal, during the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons for future pandemic preparedness efforts

Background

Serological surveys for SARS-CoV-2 were used early in the COVID-19 pandemic to assess epidemiological scenarios. In the municipality of Cascais (Portugal), serological testing combined with a comprehensive socio-demographic, clinical and behavioral questionnaire was offered to residents between May 2020 and beginning of 2021. In this study, we analyze the factors associated with adherence to this municipal initiative, as well as the sociodemographic profile and chronic diseases clinical correlates associated to seropositivity. We aim to contribute with relevant information for future pandemic preparedness efforts.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study with non-probabilistic sampling. Citizens residing in Cascais Municipality went voluntarily to blood collection centers to participate in the serological survey. The proportion of participants, stratified by socio-demographic variables, was compared to the census proportions to identify the groups with lower levels of adherence to the survey. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify socio-demographic, clinical and behavioral factors associated with seropositivity.

Results

From May 2020 to February 2021, 19,608 participants (9.2% of the residents of Cascais) were included in the study. Based on the comparison to census data, groups with lower adherence to this survey were men, the youngest and the oldest age groups, individuals with lower levels of education and unemployed/inactive. Significant predictors of a reactive (positive) serological test were younger age, being employed or a student, and living in larger households. Individuals with chronic diseases generally showed lower seroprevalence.

Conclusion

The groups with low adherence to this voluntary study, as well as the socio-economic contexts identified as more at risk of viral transmission, may be targeted in future pandemic situations. We also found that the individuals with chronic diseases, perceiving higher risk of serious illness, adopted protective behaviors that limited infection rates, revealing that health education on preventive measures was effective for these patients.

Age-specific transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during the first 2 years of the pandemic

During its first 2 years, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic manifested as multiple waves shaped by complex interactions between variants of concern, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the immunological landscape of the population. Understanding how the age-specific epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 has evolved throughout the pandemic is crucial for informing policy decisions. In this article, we aimed to develop an inference-based modeling approach to reconstruct the burden of true infections and hospital admissions in children, adolescents, and adults over the seven waves of four variants (wild-type, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1) during the first 2 years of the pandemic, using the Netherlands as the motivating example. We find that reported cases are a considerable underestimate and a generally poor predictor of true infection burden, especially because case reporting differs by age. The contribution of children and adolescents to total infection and hospitalization burden increased with successive variants and was largest during the Omicron BA.1 period. However, the ratio of hospitalizations to infections decreased with each subsequent variant in all age categories. Before the Delta period, almost all infections were primary infections occurring in naive individuals. During the Delta and Omicron BA.1 periods, primary infections were common in children but relatively rare in adults who experienced either reinfections or breakthrough infections. Our approach can be used to understand age-specific epidemiology through successive waves in other countries where random community surveys uncovering true SARS-CoV-2 dynamics are absent but basic surveillance and statistics data are available.

Association between COVID-19 Vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 Infection among Household Contacts of Infected Individuals: A Prospective Household Study in England

BACKGROUND

We investigated whether COVID-19 vaccination reduced SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among adult household contacts of COVID-19 index cases during the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron waves in England.

METHODS

Between February 2021 and February 2022, SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR nasal swabs were collected from COVID-19-confirmed index cases aged ≥20 years and their household contacts at enrolment and three and seven days thereafter. Generalized Estimating Equations models were fitted with SARS-CoV-2 positivity as the outcome and household contacts' vaccination status as the main exposure while adjusting for confounders.

RESULTS

SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed in 238/472 household contacts (50.4%) aged ≥20 years. The adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval) of infection in vaccinated versus unvaccinated household contacts was 0.50 (0.35-0.72) and 0.69 (0.53-0.90) for receipt of two doses 8-90 and >90 days ago, respectively, and 0.34 (0.23-0.50) for vaccination with three doses 8-151 days ago. Primary vaccination protected household contacts against infection during the Alpha and Delta waves, but only three doses protected during the Omicron wave. Vaccination with three doses in the index case independently reduced contacts' infection risk: 0.45 (0.23-0.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination of household contacts reduces their risk of infection under conditions of household exposure though, for Omicron, only after a booster dose.

Personal protective measures and settings on the risk of SARS-COV-2 community transmission: a case-control study

Background

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, nurses of primary health care has been an important role in Spain. Even so, the data obtained in the tracing have been scarcely used to investigate the possible mechanisms of transmission. Few studies focused on community transmission, evaluating the effectiveness of individual protective measures and exposure environment. The main aim of the study was to evaluate the association between individual protective measures and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community and to compare secondary attack rates in different exposure settings.

Methods

A case-control study from contact tracing of SARS-CoV-2 index patients. COVID-19 contact tracing was led by nurses at the COVID-19 Coordinating Centre in Majorca (Spain). During the systematic tracing, additional information for this study was collected from the index patient (social-demographic variables, symptoms, the number of close contacts). And also, the following variables from their close contacts: contact place, ventilation characteristics mask-wearing, type of mask, duration of contact, shortest distance, case-contact relationship, household members, and handwashing, the test result for SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic. Close contacts with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 were classified as "cases" and those negative as "controls."

Results

A total of 1,778 close contacts from 463 index patients were identified. No significant differences were observed between the sexes but between age groups. Overall Secondary Attack Rate (SAR) was 24.0% (95% CI: 22.0-26.0%), 36.9% (95% CI: 33.2-40.6%) in closed spaces without ventilation and 50.7% (95% CI: 45.6-55.8%) in exposure time > 24 h. A total of 49.2% of infections occurred among household members. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that open-air setting (OR 0.43, 95% CI: 0.27-0.71), exposure for less than 1 h (OR 0.19, 95% CI: 0.11-0.32), and wearing a mask (OR 0.49, 95% CI: 0.28-0.85) had a protective effect transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the community.

Conclusion

Ventilation of the space, mask-wearing and shorter exposure time were associated with a lower risk of transmission in the community. The data obtained allowed an assessment of community transmission mechanisms and could have helped to improve and streamline tracing by identifying close contacts at higher risk.

Pediatric and Young Adult Household Transmission of the Initial Waves of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States: Administrative Claims Study

BACKGROUND

The correlates responsible for the temporal changes of intrahousehold SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States have been understudied mainly due to a lack of available surveillance data. Specifically, early analyses of SARS-CoV-2 household secondary attack rates (SARs) were small in sample size and conducted cross-sectionally at single time points. From these limited data, it has been difficult to assess the role that different risk factors have had on intrahousehold disease transmission in different stages of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in children and youth.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the transmission dynamic and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 among pediatric and young adult index cases (age 0 to 25 years) in the United States through the initial waves of the pandemic.

METHODS

Using administrative claims, we analyzed 19 million SARS-CoV-2 test records between January 2020 and February 2021. We identified 36,241 households with pediatric index cases and calculated household SARs utilizing complete case information. Using a retrospective cohort design, we estimated the household SARS-CoV-2 transmission between 4 index age groups (0 to 4 years, 5 to 11 years, 12 to 17 years, and 18 to 25 years) while adjusting for sex, family size, quarter of first SARS-CoV-2 positive record, and residential regions of the index cases.

RESULTS

After filtering all household records for greater than one member in a household and missing information, only 36,241 (0.85%) of 4,270,130 households with a pediatric case remained in the analysis. Index cases aged between 0 and 17 years were a minority of the total index cases (n=11,484, 11%). The overall SAR of SARS-CoV-2 was 23.04% (95% CI 21.88-24.19). As a comparison, the SAR for all ages (0 to 65+ years) was 32.4% (95% CI 32.1-32.8), higher than the SAR for the population between 0 and 25 years of age. The highest SAR of 38.3% was observed in April 2020 (95% CI 31.6-45), while the lowest SAR of 15.6% was observed in September 2020 (95% CI 13.9-17.3). It consistently decreased from 32% to 21.1% as the age of index groups increased. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, we found that the youngest pediatric age group (0 to 4 years) had 1.69 times (95% CI 1.42-2.00) the odds of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to any family members when compared with the oldest group (18 to 25 years). Family size was significantly associated with household viral transmission (odds ratio 2.66, 95% CI 2.58-2.74).

CONCLUSIONS

Using retrospective claims data, the pediatric index transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the initial waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was associated with location and family characteristics. Pediatric SAR (0 to 25 years) was less than the SAR for all age other groups. Less than 1% (n=36,241) of all household data were retained in the retrospective study for complete case analysis, perhaps biasing our findings. We have provided measures of baseline household pediatric transmission for tracking and comparing the infectivity of later SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway

Vaccination was a key intervention in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In early 2021, Norway faced significant regional variations in COVID-19 incidence and prevalence, with large differences in population density, necessitating efficient vaccine allocation to reduce infections and severe outcomes. This study explored alternative vaccination strategies to minimize health outcomes (infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths) by varying regions prioritized, extra doses prioritized, and implementation start time. Using two models (individual-based and meta-population), we simulated COVID-19 transmission during the primary vaccination period in Norway, covering the first 7 months of 2021. We investigated alternative strategies to allocate more vaccine doses to regions with a higher force of infection. We also examined the robustness of our results and highlighted potential structural differences between the two models. Our findings suggest that early vaccine prioritization could reduce COVID-19 related health outcomes by 8% to 20% compared to a baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. For minimizing infections, hospitalizations, or ICU admissions, the best strategy was to initially allocate all available vaccine doses to fewer high-risk municipalities, comprising approximately one-fourth of the population. For minimizing deaths, a moderate level of geographic prioritization, with approximately one-third of the population receiving doubled doses, gave the best outcomes by balancing the trade-off between vaccinating younger people in high-risk areas and older people in low-risk areas. The actual strategy implemented in Norway was a two-step moderate level aimed at maintaining the balance and ensuring ethical considerations and public trust. However, it did not offer significant advantages over the baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. Earlier implementation of geographic prioritization could have more effectively addressed the main wave of infections, substantially reducing the national burden of the pandemic.

Mitigation through on-site testing & education among formerly incarcerated individuals against Covid-19 - The MOSAIC study: Design and rationale

BACKGROUND

Many of the largest COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States have occurred at carceral facilities. Criminal legal system (CLS)-involved individuals typically face structural barriers accessing medical care post-release. Improving COVID-19 testing and education for CLS-involved individuals could improve health outcomes for this vulnerable population and the communities to which they return. Community-based organizations (CBO) and community health workers (CHWs) fill care gaps by connecting CLS-involved individuals with essential re-entry services. The MOSAIC study will: 1) test an onsite CHW-led SARS-CoV-2 testing and education intervention in a reentry CBO and 2) model the cost-effectiveness of this intervention compared to standard care.

METHODS

We will recruit 250 CLS-involved individuals who have left incarceration in the prior 90 days. Participants will be randomized to receive onsite Point-of-Care testing and education (O-PoC) or Standard of Care (SoC). Over one year, participants will complete quarterly questionnaires and biweekly short surveys through a mobile application, and be tested for SARS-CoV-2 quarterly, either at the CBO (O-PoC) or an offsite community testing site (SoC). O-PoC will also receive COVID-19 mitigation counseling and education from the CHW. Our primary outcome is the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 tests performed with results received by participants. Secondary outcomes include adherence to mitigation behaviors and cost-effectiveness of the intervention.

DISCUSSION

The MOSAIC study will offer insight into cost effective strategies for SARS-CoV-2 testing and education for CLS-involved individuals. The study will also contribute to the growing literature on CHW's role in health education, supportive counseling, and building trust between patients and healthcare organizations.

Relationship of close contact settings with transmission and infection during the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 epidemic in Shanghai

INTRODUCTION

We analysed case-contact clusters during the Omicron BA.2 epidemic in Shanghai to assess the risk of infection of contacts in different settings and to evaluate the effect of demographic factors on the association of infectivity and susceptibility to the Omicron variant.

METHODS

Data on the settings and frequency of contact, demographic characteristics and comorbidities of index cases, contacts and secondary cases were analysed. Independent effect of multiple variables on the risk for transmission and infection was evaluated using generalised estimating equations.

RESULTS

From 1 March to 1 June 2022, we identified 450 770 close contacts of 90 885 index cases. The risk for infection was greater for contacts in farmers' markets (fixed locations where farmers gather to sell products, adjusted OR (aOR): 3.62; 95% CI 2.87 to 4.55) and households (aOR: 2.68; 95% CI 2.15 to 3.35). Children (0-4 years) and elderly adults (60 years and above) had higher risk for infection and transmission. During the course of the epidemic, the risk for infection and transmission in different age groups initially increased, and then decreased on about 21 April (17th day of citywide home quarantine). Compared with medical workers (reference, aOR: 1.00), unemployed contacts (aOR: 1.77; 95% CI 1.53 to 2.04) and preschoolers (aOR: 1.61; 95% CI 1.26 to 2.05) had the highest risk for infection; delivery workers (aOR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.51 to 2.40) and public service workers (aOR: 1.85; 95% CI 1.64 to 2.10) had the highest risk for transmission. Contacts who had comorbidities (aOR: 1.10; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.12) had a higher risk for infection, particularly those with lung diseases or immune deficiency.

CONCLUSION

Farmers' markets and households were the main setting for transmission of Omicron. Children, the elderly, delivery workers and public service workers had the highest risk for transmission and infection. These findings should be considered when implementing targeted interventions.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of School Closure in COVID-19-Related Syndromes From Community-Based Syndromic Surveillance: Longitudinal Observational Study

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a school closure policy was adopted to prevent cluster transmission in schools and subsequent household transmission. However, the effectiveness of school closure is not consistent in studies conducted in different countries.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the association between school closure and the daily standardized incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes in an outpatient syndromic surveillance system.

METHODS

We calculated the incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes derived from a community-based syndromic surveillance system between the first week of January and the second or fourth weeks after school closure in 2021 and 2022 in Taipei City, Taiwan. The effect of school closure on the standardized incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes was evaluated by interrupted time series analysis using an autoregressive integrated moving average with a distributed lag function. The exogenous variables were changes in human mobility measured by Google COVID-19 community mobility reports. Furthermore, the models quantified the influence of different age groups and the hierarchy of medical facilities, such as clinics or community hospitals.

RESULTS

School closure was only negatively and significantly associated with the overall standardized incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes in 2021 for 2 weeks after the intervention (coefficient -1.24, 95% CI -2.40 to -0.08). However, in different age groups, school closure had a significantly negative association with the standardized incidence among people aged 13-18 years and ≥65 years for 2 weeks after the intervention in clinics in 2021. In community hospitals, school closure was significantly positively associated with the standardized incidence among people aged 19-24 years in 2021. In 2022, 2 weeks after the intervention, school closure had a significantly negative association with the standardized incidence among people aged 0-6, 7-12, and 19-24 years in community hospitals and aged >45 years in clinics. Furthermore, the standardized incidence was positively associated with movement change toward grocery and pharmacy stores in all age groups in 2022. In addition, movement changes toward residences were significantly positively associated with the standardized incidence among all age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, school closure effectively suppresses COVID-19-related syndromes in students owing to the reduction of physical contact. In addition, school closure has a spillover effect on elderly people who stay at home.

Sensitivities of a Rapid Test Versus an ELISA Kit for Detecting Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG in Sera from an Egyptian Cohort

This study aimed to compare diagnostic sensitivities of a rapid test (Rt) and an ELISA kit for detecting anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG in virus-RT-PCR-positive (VPP) and virus-RT-PCR-unchecked (VPU) subjects in an Egyptian cohort during the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The results revealed higher sensitivity of the Rt for detecting IgM/IgG in the VPP subjects. Both the Rt and ELISA showed identical sensitivities for IgM detection in the VPU subjects. The ELISA was more sensitive for detecting IgG in the VPU subjects. Generally, within both the VPP and the VPU groups, Rt was more sensitive for detecting IgM/IgG among the symptomatic (S) compared to asymptomatic (AS) subjects than ELISA. Within the VPP group, the Rt was more sensitive for detecting both IgM/IgG among the AS subjects than ELISA. In the VPU group, the Rt was more sensitive for detecting IgM among the S subjects than ELISA. The ELISA was more sensitive for detecting IgM/IgG among AS subjects than the Rt. From these results we concluded that, despite the limitation of sample size, this study indicates suitability of the used Rt for detecting anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG among S subjects and sheds light on possibility of relying on the used ELISA for IgG detection among AS human subjects.

Clinical outcomes and phylogenetic analysis in reflection with three predominant clades of SARS-CoV-2 variants

BACKGROUND

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a broad spectrum of clinical manifestations. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) undergoes continuous evolution, resulting in the emergence of several variants. Each variant has a different severity and mortality rate.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this study, 1174 COVID-19 patients were studied for mortality and severity over three SARS-CoV-2 predominating variant periods in 2021 and 2022 in Sulaimani Province, Iraq. In each period, a representative, variant virus was subjected to phylogenetic and molecular and clinical analysis.

RESULTS

Phylogenetic analysis revealed three SARS-CoV-2 variants, belonging to: Delta B.1.617.2, Omicron BA.1.17.2, and Omicron BA.5.6. The Delta variants showed more severe symptoms and a lower PCR-Ct value than Omicron variants regardless of gender, and only 4.3% of the cases were asymptomatic. The mortality rate was lower with Omicron (.5% for BA.5.2 and 1.3% for BA.1.17.2) compared with Delta variants (2.5%). The higher mortality rate with Delta variants was in males (2.84%), while that with Omicron BA1.17.2 and BA.5.2 was in females, 1.05% and .0%, respectively. Age group (≥70) years had the highest mortality rate; however, it was (.0%) in the age group (30-49) years with Omicron variants, compared with (.96%) in Delta variants.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been a surge in COVID-19 infection in the city due to the predominant lineages of SARS-CoV-2, B.1.617, Omicron BA.1.17.2 and Omicron BA.5.6, respectively. A higher PCR-Ct value and severity of the Delta variant over Omicron BA.1.17.2 and/or BA.5.2 variants were significantly correlated with a higher death rate in the same order.

Quantifying individual-level heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility through household studies

The spread of SARS-CoV-2, like that of many other pathogens, is governed by heterogeneity. "Superspreading," or "over-dispersion," is an important factor in transmission, yet it is hard to quantify. Estimates from contact tracing data are prone to potential biases due to the increased likelihood of detecting large clusters of cases, and may reflect variation in contact behavior more than biological heterogeneity. In contrast, the average number of secondary infections per contact is routinely estimated from household surveys, and these studies can minimize biases by testing all members of a household. However, the models used to analyze household transmission data typically assume that infectiousness and susceptibility are the same for all individuals or vary only with predetermined traits such as age. Here we develop and apply a combined forward simulation and inference method to quantify the degree of inter-individual variation in both infectiousness and susceptibility from observations of the distribution of infections in household surveys. First, analyzing simulated data, we show our method can reliably ascertain the presence, type, and amount of these heterogeneities given data from a sufficiently large sample of households. We then analyze a collection of household studies of COVID-19 from diverse settings around the world, and find strong evidence for large heterogeneity in both the infectiousness and susceptibility of individuals. Our results also provide a framework to improve the design of studies to evaluate household interventions in the presence of realistic heterogeneity between individuals.

SIgA in various pulmonary diseases

Secretory immunoglobulin A (SIgA) is one of the most abundant immunoglobulin subtypes among mucosa, which plays an indispensable role in the first-line protection against invading pathogens and antigens. Therefore, the role of respiratory SIgA in respiratory mucosal immune diseases has attracted more and more attention. Although the role of SIgA in intestinal mucosal immunity has been widely studied, the cell types responsible for SIgA and the interactions between cells are still unclear. Here, we conducted a wide search of relevant studies and sorted out the relationship between SIgA and some pulmonary diseases (COPD, asthma, tuberculosis, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, COVID-19, lung cancer), which found SIgA is involved in the pathogenesis and progression of various lung diseases, intending to provide new ideas for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of related lung diseases.

Risk factors of infection among close contacts of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first detected in December 2019, and declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020. The current management of COVID-19 is based generally on supportive therapy and treatment to prevent respiratory failure.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, CNKI, and other databases were searched by computer, and relevant literature published from December 2019 to November 2022 on the influencing factors of infection in close contacts with novel coronavirus pneumonia was collected. Meta-analysis was carried out after literature screening, quality assessment, and data extraction.

RESULTS

A total of 425 articles were retrieved and 11 were included. Meta-analysis showed that there were 6 risk factors, and the combined OR value and 95% CI of each influencing factor were 5.23 (3.20, 8.57) for family members, 1.63 (0.56, 4.77) for regular contact, 2.14 (0.62, 7.32) for the elderly, 0.58 (0.001569.89) for cohabitation, 1.97 (1.02, 3.82) for women and 0.75 (0.01, 54.07) for others. The Deeks' funnel diagram indicates that there is no potential publication bias among the included studies.

CONCLUSION

Family members and gender differences are the risk factors of infection among close contacts, and it cannot be proved that there are differences in infection among frequent contact, advanced age, and living together.

Close contact behaviors of university and school students in 10 indoor environments

Close contact routes, including short-range airborne and large-droplet routes, play an important role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in indoor environments. However, the exposure risk of such routes is difficult to quantify due to the lack of data on the close contact behavior of individuals. In this study, a digital wearable device, based on semi-supervised learning, was developed to automatically record human close contact behavior. We collected 337,056 s of indoor close contact of school and university students from 194.5 h of depth video recordings in 10 types of indoor environments. The correlation between aerosol exposure and close contact behaviors was then evaluated. Individuals in restaurants had the highest close contact ratio (64%), as well as the highest probability of face-to-face pattern (78%) during close contact. Accordingly, university students showed greater exposure potential in dormitories than school students in homes, however, a lower exposure was observed in classrooms and postgraduate student offices in comparison with school students in classrooms. In addition, restaurants had the highest aerosol exposure volume for both short-range inhalation and direct deposition on the facial mucosa. Thus, the classroom was established as the primary indoor environment where school students are exposed to aerosols.

CASCADIA: a prospective community-based study protocol for assessing SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness in children and adults using a remote nasal swab collection and web-based survey design

INTRODUCTION

Although SARS-CoV-2 vaccines were first approved under Emergency Use Authorization by the Food and Drug Administration in late 2020 for adults, authorisation for young children 6 months to <5 years of age did not occur until 2022. These authorisations were based on clinical trials, understanding real-world vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the setting of emerging variants is critical. The primary goal of this study is to evaluate SARS-CoV-2 VE against infection among children aged >6 months and adults aged <50 years.

METHODS

CASCADIA is a 4-year community-based prospective study of SARS-CoV-2 VE among 3500 adults and paediatric populations aged 6 months to 49 years in Oregon and Washington, USA. At enrolment and regular intervals, participants complete a sociodemographic questionnaire. Individuals provide a blood sample at enrolment and annually thereafter, with optional blood draws every 6 months and after infection and vaccination. Participants complete weekly self-collection of anterior nasal swabs and symptom questionnaires. Swabs are tested for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory pathogens by reverse transcription-PCR, with results of selected pathogens returned to participants; nasal swabs with SARS-CoV-2 detected will undergo whole genome sequencing. Participants who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 undergo serial swab collection every 3 days for 21 days. Serum samples are tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibody by binding and neutralisation assays.

ANALYSIS

The primary outcome is SARS-CoV-2 infection. Cox regression models will be used to estimate the incidence rate ratio associated with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination among the paediatric and adult population, controlling for demographic factors and other potential confounders.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All study materials including the protocol, consent forms, data collection instruments, participant communication and recruitment materials, were approved by the Kaiser Permanente Interregional Institutional Review Board, the IRB of record for the study. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, presentations, participant newsletters and appropriate general news media.

Direct indicators of social distancing effectiveness in COVID-19 outbreak stages: a correlational analysis of case contacts and population mobility in Korea

OBJECTIVES

The effectiveness of social distancing during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been evaluated using the magnitude of changes in population mobility. This study aimed to investigate a direct indicator-namely, the number of close contacts per patient with confirmed COVID-19.

METHODS

From week 7, 2020 to week 43, 2021, population movement changes were calculated from the data of two Korean telecommunication companies and Google in accordance with social distancing stringency levels. Data on confirmed cases and their close contacts among residents of Gyeonggi Province, Korea were combined at each stage. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to compare the movement data with the change in the number of contacts for each confirmed case calculated by stratification according to age group. The reference value of the population movement data was set using the value before mid-February 2020, considering each data's characteristics.

RESULTS

In the age group of 18 or younger, the number of close contacts per confirmed case decreased or increased when the stringency level was strengthened or relaxed, respectively. In adults, the correlation was relatively low, with no correlation between the change in the number of close contacts per confirmed case and the change in population movement after the commencement of vaccination for adults.

CONCLUSIONS

The effectiveness of governmental social distancing policies against COVID-19 can be evaluated using the number of close contacts per confirmed case as a direct indicator, especially for each age group. Such an analysis can facilitate policy changes for specific groups.

Household transmission dynamics of COVID-19 among residents of Delhi, India: a prospective case-ascertained study

Objective

The aim of this study was to observe the secondary infection rate and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 among household contacts, and their associations with various factors across four dimensions of interaction.

Methods

This was a case-ascertained study among unvaccinated household contacts of a laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case in New Delhi between December 2020 and July 2021. For this study, 99 index cases and their 316 household contacts were interviewed and sampled (blood and oro-nasal swab) on days 1, 7, 14, and 28.

Results

The secondary infection rate among unvaccinated household contacts was 44.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 39.1-50.1). The predictors of secondary infection among individual contact levels were: being female (odds ratio (OR) 2.13), increasing age (OR 1.01), symptoms at baseline (OR 3.39), and symptoms during follow-up (OR 3.18). Among index cases, age of the primary case (OR 1.03) and symptoms during follow-up (OR 6.29) were significantly associated with secondary infection. Among household-level and contact patterns, having more rooms (OR 4.44) and taking care of the index case (OR 2.02) were significantly associated with secondary infection.

Conclusion

A high secondary infection rate highlights the need to adopt strict measures and advocate COVID-19-appropriate behaviors. A targeted approach for higher-risk household contacts would efficiently limit infections among susceptible contacts.

Risk factors associated with indoor transmission during home quarantine of COVID-19 patients

Purpose

The study aimed to identify potential risk factors for family transmission and to provide precautionary guidelines for the general public during novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) waves.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study with numerous COVID-19 patients recruited was conducted in Shanghai. Epidemiological data including transmission details, demographics, vaccination status, symptoms, comorbidities, antigen test, living environment, residential ventilation, disinfection and medical treatment of each participant were collected and risk factors for family transmission were determined.

Results

A total of 2,334 COVID-19 patients participated. Compared with non-cohabitation infected patients, cohabitated ones were younger (p = 0.019), more commonly unvaccinated (p = 0.048) or exposed to infections (p < 0.001), and had higher rates of symptoms (p = 0.003) or shared living room (p < 0.001). Risk factors analysis showed that the 2019-nCov antigen positive (OR = 1.86, 95%CI 1.40-2.48, p < 0.001), symptoms development (OR = 1.86, 95%CI 1.34-2.58, p < 0.001), direct contact exposure (OR = 1.47, 95%CI 1.09-1.96, p = 0.010) were independent risk factors for the cohabitant transmission of COVID-19, and a separate room with a separate toilet could reduce the risk of family transmission (OR = 0.62, 95%CI 0.41-0.92, p = 0.018).

Conclusion

Patients showing negative 2019-nCov antigen tests, being asymptomatic, living in a separate room with a separate toilet, or actively avoiding direct contact with cohabitants were at low risk of family transmission, and the study recommended that avoiding direct contact and residential disinfection could reduce the risk of all cohabitants within the same house being infected with COVID-19.

Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on workplace transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the home-delivery sector

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to use mathematical models of SARS-COV-2 to assess the potential efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions on transmission in the parcel delivery and logistics sector.

METHODS

We devloped a network-based model of workplace contacts based on data and consultations from companies in the parcel delivery and logistics sectors. We used these in stochastic simulations of disease transmission to predict the probability of workplace outbreaks in this settings. Individuals in the model have different viral load trajectories based on SARS-CoV-2 in-host dynamics, which couple to their infectiousness and test positive probability over time, in order to determine the impact of testing and isolation measures.

RESULTS

The baseline model (without any interventions) showed different workplace infection rates for staff in different job roles. Based on our assumptions of contact patterns in the parcel delivery work setting we found that when a delivery driver was the index case, on average they infect only 0.14 other employees, while for warehouse and office workers this went up to 0.65 and 2.24 respectively. In the LIDD setting this was predicted to be 1.40, 0.98, and 1.34 respectively. Nonetheless, the vast majority of simulations resulted in 0 secondary cases among customers (even without contact-free delivery). Our results showed that a combination of social distancing, office staff working from home, and fixed driver pairings (all interventions carried out by the companies we consulted) reduce the risk of workplace outbreaks by 3-4 times.

CONCLUSION

This work suggests that, without interventions, significant transmission could have occured in these workplaces, but that these posed minimal risk to customers. We found that identifying and isolating regular close-contacts of infectious individuals (i.e. house-share, carpools, or delivery pairs) is an efficient measure for stopping workplace outbreaks. Regular testing can make these isolation measures even more effective but also increases the number of staff isolating at one time. It is therefore more efficient to use these isolation measures in addition to social distancing and contact reduction interventions, rather than instead of, as these reduce both transmission and the number of people needing to isolate at one time.

The role of children in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern within households: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis, as at 30 June 2022

BackgroundMeta-analyses and single-site studies have established that children are less infectious than adults within a household when positive for ancestral SARS-CoV-2. In addition, children appear less susceptible to infection when exposed to ancestral SARS-CoV-2 within a household. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) has been associated with an increased number of paediatric infections worldwide. However, the role of children in the household transmission of VOC, relative to the ancestral virus, remains unclear.AimWe aimed to evaluate children's role in household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 VOC.MethodsWe perform a meta-analysis of the role of children in household transmission of both ancestral SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-2 VOC.ResultsUnlike with the ancestral virus, children infected with VOC spread SARS-CoV-2 to an equivalent number of household contacts as infected adults and were equally as likely to acquire SARS-CoV-2 VOC from an infected family member. Interestingly, the same was observed when unvaccinated children exposed to VOC were compared with unvaccinated adults exposed to VOC.ConclusionsThese data suggest that the emergence of VOC was associated with a fundamental shift in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. It is unlikely that this is solely the result of age-dependent differences in vaccination during the VOC period and may instead reflect virus evolution over the course of the pandemic.

Social contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in 21 European countries - evidence from a two-year study

BACKGROUND

Most countries have enacted some restrictions to reduce social contacts to slow down disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic. For nearly two years, individuals likely also adopted new behaviours to avoid pathogen exposure based on personal circumstances. We aimed to understand the way in which different factors affect social contacts - a critical step to improving future pandemic responses.

METHODS

The analysis was based on repeated cross-sectional contact survey data collected in a standardized international study from 21 European countries between March 2020 and March 2022. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a clustered bootstrap by country and by settings (at home, at work, or in other settings). Where data were available, contact rates during the study period were compared with rates recorded prior to the pandemic. We fitted censored individual-level generalized additive mixed models to examine the effects of various factors on the number of social contacts.

RESULTS

The survey recorded 463,336 observations from 96,456 participants. In all countries where comparison data were available, contact rates over the previous two years were substantially lower than those seen prior to the pandemic (approximately from over 10 to < 5), predominantly due to fewer contacts outside the home. Government restrictions imposed immediate effect on contacts, and these effects lingered after the restrictions were lifted. Across countries, the relationships between national policy, individual perceptions, or personal circumstances determining contacts varied.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study, coordinated at the regional level, provides important insights into the understanding of the factors associated with social contacts to support future infectious disease outbreak responses.

Health Care Logistics Network Design and Analysis on Pandemic Outbreaks: Insights From COVID-19

Health care systems throughout the world are under pressure as a result of COVID-19. It is over two years since the first case was announced in China and health care providers are continuing to struggle with this fatal infectious disease in intensive care units and inpatient wards. Meanwhile, the burden of postponed routine medical procedures has become greater as the pandemic has progressed. We believe that establishing separate health care institutions for infected and non-infected patients would provide safer and better quality health care services. The aim of this study is to find the appropriate number and location of dedicated health care institutions which would only treat individuals infected by a pandemic during an outbreak. For this purpose, a decision-making framework including two multi-objective mixed-integer programming models is developed. At the strategic level, the locations of designated pandemic hospitals are optimized. At the tactical level, we determine the locations and operation durations of temporary isolation centers which treat mildly and moderately symptomatic patients. The developed framework provides assessments of the distance that infected patients travel, the routine medical services expected to be disrupted, two-way distances between new facilities (designated pandemic hospitals and isolation centers), and the infection risk in the population. To demonstrate the applicability of the suggested models, we perform a case study for the European side of Istanbul. In the base case, seven designated pandemic hospitals and four isolation centers are established. In sensitivity analyses, 23 cases are analyzed and compared to provide support to decision makers.

Clustering of SARS-CoV-2 in Households in New York City: A Building-Level Analysis, March-December 2020

OBJECTIVES

To identify the proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases that occurred within households or buildings in New York City (NYC) beginning in March 2020 during the first stay-at-home order to determine transmission attributable to these settings and inform targeted prevention strategies.

DESIGN

The residential addresses of cases were geocoded (converting descriptive addresses to latitude and longitude coordinates) and used to identify clusters of cases residing in unique buildings based on building identification number (BIN), a unique building identifier. Household clusters were defined as 2 or more cases within 2 weeks of onset or diagnosis date in the same BIN with the same unit number, last name, or in a single-family home. Building clusters were defined as 3 or more cases with onset date or diagnosis date within 2 weeks in the same BIN who do not reside in the same household.

SETTING

NYC from March to December 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

NYC residents with a positive SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification or antigen test result with a specimen collected during March 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The proportion of NYC COVID-19 cases in a household or building cluster.

RESULTS

The BIN analysis identified 65 343 building and household clusters: 17 139 (26%) building clusters and 48 204 (74%) household clusters. A substantial proportion of NYC COVID-19 cases (43%) were potentially attributable to household transmission in the first 9 months of the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Geocoded address matching assisted in identifying COVID-19 household clusters. Close contact transmission within a household or building cluster was found in 43% of noncongregate cases with a valid residential NYC address. The BIN analysis should be utilized to identify disease clustering for improved surveillance.

The effect of variation of individual infectiousness on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in households

Quantifying variation of individual infectiousness is critical to inform disease control. Previous studies reported substantial heterogeneity in transmission of many infectious diseases including SARS-CoV-2. However, those results are difficult to interpret since the number of contacts is rarely considered in such approaches. Here, we analyze data from 17 SARS-CoV-2 household transmission studies conducted in periods dominated by ancestral strains, in which the number of contacts was known. By fitting individual-based household transmission models to these data, accounting for number of contacts and baseline transmission probabilities, the pooled estimate suggests that the 20% most infectious cases have 3.1-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.2- to 4.2-fold) higher infectiousness than average cases, which is consistent with the observed heterogeneity in viral shedding. Household data can inform the estimation of transmission heterogeneity, which is important for epidemic management.

COVID-19 vaccination in children: a public health priority

OBJECTIVE

Covid-19 had a direct impact on children's health. The aim of this review was to analyze epidemiological and clinical data, the consequences of the pandemic, and vaccination aspects in this group.

SOURCES OF DATA

The searches were carried out from January 2020 to November 2022, in the MEDLINE databases (PubMed) and publications of the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Brazilian Society of Pediatrics.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

Covid-19 has a mild presentation in most children; however, the infection can progress to the severe form and, in some cases, to MIS-C. The prevalence of the so-called long Covid in children was 25.24%. Moreover, several indirect impacts occurred on the health of children and adolescents. Vaccination played a crucial role in enabling the reduction of severe disease and mortality rates. Children and adolescents, as a special population, were excluded from the initial clinical trials and, therefore, vaccination was introduced later in this group. Despite its importance, there have been difficulties in the efficient implementation of vaccination in the pediatric population. The CoronaVac vaccines are authorized in Brazil for children over three years of age and the pediatric presentations of the Pfizer vaccine have shown significant effectiveness and safety.

CONCLUSIONS

Covid-19 in the pediatric age group was responsible for the illness and deaths of a significant number of children. For successful immunization, major barriers have to be overcome. Real-world data on the safety and efficacy of several pediatric vaccines is emphasized, and the authors need a uniform message about the importance of immunization for all children.

“We are Tired but Do Not Give Up” the Dilemma and Challenges of Primary Nurses Facing the Omicron Variant: Qualitative Research

Background

Everyone becomes aware due to the epidemic, especially primary department nurses. The significance of their experiences teaches nurses how to take care of themselves and be successful in their caregiving.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to investigate the perceptions of nurses working in primary care settings in rural regions during the omicron variant pandemic.

Methods

On the basis of the Nvivo 12 analytic approach, extensive semi-structured interviews were used to perform this qualitative study. 20 interviews later, data saturation had been reached. Data collecting was place from February to March 2022 for a month. The following participant characteristics were discovered through semi-structured interviews with 20 nurse participants. Ages of the participants, who were split between eight men and twelve women, varied from 28 to 43 years (average age 36.4 years). The majority (75% of them) had a vocational education, and their years of experience ranged from five to fifteen (average 11 years).

Results

4 topics and 7 sub-themes' results. The results' fundamental message is: The Nursing Clinical Practice Dilemma, school district, virus type uncertainty Indigenous peoples do not adhere to the concept of the afterlife. Must Be Excited and Alert; School Cluster; Virus Type Confusion; Non-Belief in Covid; and the Dilemma of Nursing in Clinical Practice are the Overarching Themes of This Study.

Conclusion

Making innovations to increase motivation thereby reducing mental and physical fatigue are the implications of the results of this study. Further exploration of the readiness of nurses to treat patients in the main department is believed to be beneficial for the results of this study.

Effect of COVID-19 vaccination on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission among social and household close contacts: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccination was expected to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but the relevance of this effect remains unclear. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination of the index cases and their close contacts in reducing the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

METHODS

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection was evaluated in two cohorts of adult close contacts of COVID-19 confirmed cases (social and household settings) by COVID-19 vaccination status of the index case and the close contact, from April to November 2021 in Navarre, Spain. The effects of vaccination of the index case and the close contact were estimated as (1-adjusted relative risk) × 100%.

RESULTS

Among 19,631 social contacts, 3257 (17%) were confirmed with SARS-CoV-2. COVID-19 vaccination of the index case reduced infectiousness by 44% (95% CI, 27-57%), vaccination of the close contact reduced susceptibility by 69% (95% CI, 65-73%), and vaccination of both reduced transmissibility by 74% (95% CI, 70-78%) in social settings, suggesting some synergy of effects. Among 20,708 household contacts, 6269 (30%) were infected, and vaccine effectiveness estimates were 13% (95% CI, -5% to 28%), 61% (95% CI, 58-64%), and 52% (95% CI, 47-56%), respectively. These estimates were lower in older people and had not relevant differences between the Alpha (April-June) and Delta (July-November) variant periods.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccination reduces infectiousness and susceptibility; however, these effects are insufficient for complete control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, especially in older people and household setting. Relaxation of preventive behaviors after vaccination may counteract part of the vaccine effect on transmission.

Local travel behaviour under continuing COVID-19 waves- A proxy for pandemic fatigue?

COVID-19 continues to threaten the world. Relaxing local travel behaviours on preventing the spread of COVID-19, may increase the infection risk in subsequent waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this study, we analysed changes in the travel behaviour of different population groups (adult, child, student, elderly) during four pandemic waves in Hong Kong before January 2021, by 4-billion second-by-second smartcard records of subway. A significant continuous relaxation in human travel behaviour was observed during the four waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Residents sharply reduced their local travel by 51.9%, 50.1%, 27.6%, and 20.5% from the first to fourth pandemic waves, respectively. The population flow in residential areas, workplaces, schools, shopping areas, amusement areas and border areas, decreased on average by 30.3%, 33.5%, 41.9%, 58.1%, 85.4% and 99.6%, respectively, during the pandemic weeks. We also found that many other cities around the world experienced a similar relaxation trend in local travel behaviour, by comparing traffic congestion data during the pandemic with data from the same period in 2019. The quantitative pandemic fatigue in local travel behaviour could help governments partially predicting personal protective behaviours, and thus to suggest more accurate interventions during subsequent waves, especially for highly infectious virus variants such as Omicron.

Changes on local travel behaviors under travel reduction-related interventions during COVID-19 pandemic: a case study in Hong Kong

The emerging Omicron variant poses a serious threat to human health. Public transports play a critical role in infection spread. Based on the data of nearly 4 billion smartcard uses, between January 1, 2019 and January 31, 2021 from the Mass Transit Railway Corporation of Hong Kong, we analyzed the subway travel behavior of different population groups (adults, children, students and senior citizens) due to the COVID-19 pandemic and human travel behavior under different interventions (e.g. work suspension, school closure). Due to the pandemic, the number of MTR passengers (the daily number of passengers in close proximity in subway carriages) decreased by 37.4% (40.8%) for adults, 80.3% (78.5%) for children, 71.6% (71.6%) for students, and 33.5% (36.1%) for senior citizens. Due to work from home (school suspension), the number of contacted adults (students/children) in the same carriage during the rush hours decreased by 39.6% (38.6%/43.2%). If all workers, students, and children were encouraged to commute avoiding rush hours, the possible repeated contacts during rush hour of adults, children and students decreased by 73.3%, 77.9% and 79.5%, respectively. Since adults accounted for 87.3% of the total number of subway passengers during the pandemic, work from home and staggered shift pattern of workers can reduce the infection risk effectively. Our objective is to find the changes of local travel behavior due to the pandemic. From the perspective of public transports, the results provide a scientific support for COVID-19 prevention and control in cities.

A mathematical model reveals the influence of NPIs and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant

An SVEIR SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant model is proposed to provide some insights to coordinate non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number R 0 and the effective reproduction number R e to measure the infection potential of Omicron variant and formulate an optimal disease control strategy. Our inversion results imply that the sick period of Omicron variant in the United States is longer than that of Delta variant in India. The decrease in the infectious period of the infection with infectiousness implies that the risk of hospitalization is reduced; but the increasing period of the infection with non-infectiousness signifies that Omicron variant lengthens the period of nucleic acid test being negative. Optimistically, Omicron's death rate is only a quarter of Delta's. Moreover, we forecast that the cumulative cases will exceed 100 million in the United States on February 28, 2022, and the daily confirmed cases will reach a peak on February 2, 2022. The results of parameters sensitivity analysis imply that NPIs are helpful to reduce the number of confirmed cases. In particular, NPIs are indispensable even if all the people were vaccinated when the efficiency of vaccine is relatively low. By simulating the relationships of the effective reproduction number R e , the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine, we find that it is impossible to achieve the herd immunity without NPIs while the efficiency of vaccine is lower than 88.7 % . Therefore, the herd immunity area is defined by the evolution of relationships between the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine. Finally, we present that the disease-induced mortality rate demonstrates the periodic oscillation and an almost periodic function is deduced to match the curve. A discussion completes the paper.

Limited role of children in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus in households-Immunological analysis of 26 familial clusters

BACKGROUND

The impact of children on the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains uncertain. This study provides an insight into distinct patterns of SARS-CoV-2 household transmission in case of pediatric and adult index cases as well as age-dependent susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

Immune analysis, medical interviewing, and contact tracing of 26 families with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection cases have been conducted. Blood samples were analyzed serologically with the use of a SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG assay and virus neutralization test (VNT). Uni- and multivariable linear regression and mixed effect logistic regression models were used to describe potential risk factors for higher contagiousness and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RESULTS

SARS-CoV-2 infection could be confirmed in 67 of 124 family members. Fourteen children and 11 adults could be defined as index cases in their households. Forty of 82 exposed family members were defined as secondarily infected. The mean secondary attack rate in households was 0.48 and was significantly higher in households with adult than with pediatric index cases (0.85 vs 0.19; p < 0.0001). The age (grouped into child and adult) of index case, severity of disease, and occurrence of lower respiratory symptoms in index cases were significantly associated with secondary transmission rates in households. Children seem to be equally susceptible to acquire a SARS-CoV-2 infection as adults, but they suffer milder courses of the disease or remain asymptomatic.

CONCLUSION

SARS-CoV-2 transmission from infected children to other household members occurred rarely in the first wave of the pandemic, despite close physical contact and the lack of hygienic measures.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in close contacts of adults at high risk of infection due to occupation: results from the contact tracing strategy of the CoVIDA epidemiological surveillance study in Bogotá, Colombia, in 2020-2021

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in close contacts of adults at high risk of infection due to occupation, participants of the CoVIDA study, in Bogotá D.C., Colombia.

SETTING

The CoVIDA study was the largest COVID-19 intensified sentinel epidemiological surveillance study in Colombia thus far, performing over 60 000 RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection. The study implemented a contact tracing strategy (via telephone call) to support traditional surveillance actions performed by the local health authority.

PARTICIPANTS

Close contacts of participants from the CoVIDA study.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

SARS-CoV-2 testing results were obtained (RT-PCR with CoVIDA or self-reported results). The secondary attack rate (SAR) was calculated using contacts and primary cases features.

RESULTS

The CoVIDA study performed 1257 contact tracing procedures on primary cases. A total of 5551 close contacts were identified and 1050 secondary cases (21.1%) were found. The highest SAR was found in close contacts: (1) who were spouses (SAR=32.7%; 95% CI 29.1% to 36.4%), (2) of informally employed or unemployed primary cases (SAR=29.1%; 95% CI 25.5% to 32.8%), (3) of symptomatic primary cases (SAR of 25.9%; 95% CI 24.0% to 27.9%) and (4) living in households with more than three people (SAR=22.2%; 95% CI 20.7% to 23.8%). The spouses (OR 3.85; 95% CI 2.60 to 5.70), relatives (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.33 to 2.70) and close contacts of a symptomatic primary case (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.77) had an increased risk of being secondary cases compared with non-relatives and close contacts of an asymptomatic index case, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Contact tracing strategies must focus on households with socioeconomic vulnerabilities to guarantee isolation and testing to stop the spread of the disease.

Association Between Population-Level Factors and Household Secondary Attack Rate of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

Accurate estimation of household secondary attack rate (SAR) is crucial to understand the transmissibility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The impact of population-level factors, such as transmission intensity in the community, on SAR estimates is rarely explored.

Methods

In this study, we included articles with original data to compute the household SAR. To determine the impact of transmission intensity in the community on household SAR estimates, we explored the association between SAR estimates and the incidence rate of cases by country during the study period.

Results

We identified 163 studies to extract data on SARs from 326 031 cases and 2 009 859 household contacts. The correlation between the incidence rate of cases during the study period and SAR estimates was 0.37 (95% CI, 0.24-0.49). We found that doubling the incidence rate of cases during the study period was associated with a 1.2% (95% CI, 0.5%-1.8%) higher household SAR.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the incidence rate of cases during the study period is associated with higher SAR. Ignoring this factor may overestimate SARs, especially for regions with high incidences, which further impacts control policies and epidemiological characterization of emerging variants.

Using a real-world network to model the trade-off between stay-at-home restriction, vaccination, social distancing and working hours on COVID-19 dynamics

Background

Human behaviour, economic activity, vaccination, and social distancing are inseparably entangled in epidemic management. This study aims to investigate the effects of various parameters such as stay-at-home restrictions, work hours, vaccination, and social distance on the containment of pandemics such as COVID-19.

Methods

To achieve this, we have developed an agent based model based on a time-dynamic graph with stochastic transmission events. The graph is constructed from a real-world social network. The edges of graph have been categorized into three categories: home, workplaces, and social environment. The conditions needed to mitigate the spread of wild-type COVID-19 and the delta variant have been analyzed. Our purposeful agent based model has carefully executed tens of thousands of individual-based simulations. We propose simple relationships for the trade-offs between effective reproduction number (R _e), transmission rate, working hours, vaccination, and stay-at-home restrictions.

Results

We have found that the effect of a 13.6% increase in vaccination for wild-type (WT) COVID-19 is equivalent to reducing four hours of work or a one-day stay-at-home restriction. For the delta, 20.2% vaccination has the same effect. Also, since we can keep track of household and non-household infections, we observed that the change in household transmission rate does not significantly alter the R _e. Household infections are not limited by transmission rate due to the high frequency of connections. For the specifications of COVID-19, the R _e depends on the non-household transmissions rate.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight that decreasing working hours is the least effective among the non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results suggest that policymakers decrease work-related activities as a last resort and should probably not do so when the effects are minimal, as shown. Furthermore, the enforcement of stay-at-home restrictions is moderately effective and can be used in conjunction with other measures if absolutely necessary.

Association between household composition and severe COVID-19 outcomes in older people by ethnicity: an observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform

BACKGROUND

Ethnic differences in the risk of severe COVID-19 may be linked to household composition. We quantified the association between household composition and risk of severe COVID-19 by ethnicity for older individuals.

METHODS

With the approval of NHS England, we analysed ethnic differences in the association between household composition and severe COVID-19 in people aged 67 or over in England. We defined households by number of age-based generations living together, and used multivariable Cox regression stratified by location and wave of the pandemic and accounted for age, sex, comorbidities, smoking, obesity, housing density and deprivation. We included 2 692 223 people over 67 years in Wave 1 (1 February 2020-31 August 2020) and 2 731 427 in Wave 2 (1 September 2020-31 January 2021).

RESULTS

Multigenerational living was associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 for White and South Asian older people in both waves [e.g. Wave 2, 67+ living with three other generations vs 67+-year-olds only: White hazard ratio (HR) 1.61 95% CI 1.38-1.87, South Asian HR 1.76 95% CI 1.48-2.10], with a trend for increased risks of severe COVID-19 with increasing generations in Wave 2. There was also an increased risk of severe COVID-19 in Wave 1 associated with living alone for White (HR 1.35 95% CI 1.30-1.41), South Asian (HR 1.47 95% CI 1.18-1.84) and Other (HR 1.72 95% CI 0.99-2.97) ethnicities, an effect that persisted for White older people in Wave 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Both multigenerational living and living alone were associated with severe COVID-19 in older adults. Older South Asian people are over-represented within multigenerational households in England, especially in the most deprived settings, whereas a substantial proportion of White older people live alone. The number of generations in a household, number of occupants, ethnicity and deprivation status are important considerations in the continued roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination and targeting of interventions for future pandemics.

Quantifying individual-level heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility through household studies

The spread of SARS-CoV-2, like that of many other pathogens, is governed by heterogeneity. "Superspreading," or "over-dispersion," is an important factor in transmission, yet it is hard to quantify. Estimates from contact tracing data are prone to potential biases due to the increased likelihood of detecting large clusters of cases, and may reflect variation in contact behavior more than biological heterogeneity. In contrast, the average number of secondary infections per contact is routinely estimated from household surveys, and these studies can minimize biases by testing all members of a household. However, the models used to analyze household transmission data typically assume that infectiousness and susceptibility are the same for all individuals or vary only with predetermined traits such as age. Here we develop and apply a combined forward simulation and inference method to quantify the degree of inter-individual variation in both infectiousness and susceptibility from observations of the distribution of infections in household surveys. First, analyzing simulated data, we show our method can reliably ascertain the presence, type, and amount of these heterogeneities with data from a sufficiently large sample of households. We then analyze a collection of household studies of COVID-19 from diverse settings around the world, and find strong evidence for large heterogeneity in both the infectiousness and susceptibility of individuals. Our results also provide a framework to improve the design of studies to evaluate household interventions in the presence of realistic heterogeneity between individuals.

COVID-19 in one region of New Zealand: a descriptive epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in one region of New Zealand in the context of the national lockdown and provide a reference for comparing infection dynamics and control measures between SARS-Cov-2 strains.  Methods: Epidemiological linking and analysis of COVID-19 cases and their close contacts residing in the geographical area served by the Southern District Health Board (SDHB).  Results: From 13 March to 5 April 5 2020, 186 cases were laboratory-confirmed with wild-type Sars-Cov-2 in SDHB. Overall, 35·1% of cases were attributable to household transmission, 27·0% to non-household, 25·4% to overseas travel and 12·4% had no known epidemiological links. The highest secondary attack rate was observed in households during lockdown (15·3%, 95%CI 10·4-21·5). The mean serial interval in 50 exclusive infector-infectee pairs was 4·0 days (95%CI 3·2-4·7days), and the mean incubation period was 3.4 days (95%CI 2·7-4·2).

CONCLUSIONS

The SARS-CoV-2 incubation period may be shorter than early estimates that were limited by uncertainties in exposure history or small sample sizes.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

The continuation of household transmission during lockdown highlights the need for effective home-based quarantine guidance. Our findings of a short incubation period highlight the need to contact trace and isolate as rapidly as possible.

Analysis of the close contact management mode and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Chengdu, China

With the development of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic and the increase in cases, as a potential source of infection, the risk of close contact has gradually increased. However, few studies have analyzed the tracking and management of cross-regional personnel. In this study, we hope to understand the effectiveness and feasibility of existing close contact management measures in Chengdu, so as to provide a reference for further prevention and control of the epidemic. The close contact management mode and epidemiological characteristics of 40,425 close contacts from January 22, 2020, to March 1, 2022, in Chengdu, China, were analyzed. The relationship with index cases was mainly co-passengers (57.58%) and relatives (7.20%), and the frequency of contact was mainly occasional contact (70.39%). A total of 400 (0.99%) close contacts were converted into cases, which were mainly found in the first and second nucleic acid tests (53.69%), and the contact mode was mainly by sharing transportation (63.82%). In terms of close contact management time, both the supposed ((11.93 ± 3.00) days vs. (11.92 ± 7.24) days) and actual ((13.74 ± 17.47) days vs. (12.60 ± 4.35) days) isolation times in Chengdu were longer than those of the outer cities (P < 0.001). For the local clustered epidemics in Chengdu, the relationship with indexed cases was mainly colleagues (12.70%). The tracing and management of close contacts is a two-way management measure that requires cooperation among departments. Enhancing existing monitoring and response capabilities can control the spread of the epidemic to a certain extent.

Dynamic characteristics of a COVID-19 outbreak in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China

Objectives

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage B.1.617.2 (also named the Delta variant) was declared as a variant of concern by the World Health Organization (WHO). This study aimed to describe the outbreak that occurred in Nanjing city triggered by the Delta variant through the epidemiological parameters and to understand the evolving epidemiology of the Delta variant.

Methods

We collected the data of all COVID-19 cases during the outbreak from 20 July 2021 to 24 August 2021 and estimated the distribution of serial interval, basic and time-dependent reproduction numbers (R₀ and R_t), and household secondary attack rate (SAR). We also analyzed the cycle threshold (Ct) values of infections.

Results

A total of 235 cases have been confirmed. The mean value of serial interval was estimated to be 4.79 days with the Weibull distribution. The R₀ was 3.73 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.66-5.15] as estimated by the exponential growth (EG) method. The R_t decreased from 4.36 on 20 July 2021 to below 1 on 1 August 2021 as estimated by the Bayesian approach. We estimated the household SAR as 27.35% (95% CI, 22.04-33.39%), and the median Ct value of open reading frame 1ab (ORF1ab) genes and nucleocapsid protein (N) genes as 25.25 [interquartile range (IQR), 20.53-29.50] and 23.85 (IQR, 18.70-28.70), respectively.

Conclusions

The Delta variant is more aggressive and transmissible than the original virus types, so continuous non-pharmaceutical interventions are still needed.

The impact of caregivers on nosocomial transmission during a COVID-19 outbreak in a community-based hospital in South Korea

The COVID-19 pandemic becomes a cause of concern for hospital transmission. Caregivers may play an important role as vectors for nosocomial infections; however, infection control for caregivers often is neglected. A nosocomial COVID-19 outbreak occurred in a 768-bed hospital from March 20, 2020, to April 14, 2020. We conducted a retrospective chart review and epidemiologic investigation on all cases. A total of 54 cases of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 occurred in the community-based hospital. They included 26 (48.1%) patients, 21 (38.9%) caregivers, and 7 (13.0%) healthcare workers. These 21 caregivers cared for 18 patients, and of these, 9 were positive for COVID-19, 6 were negative, and 3 died before testing. Of the 6 negative patients, 3 had no exposure because the caregiver began to show symptoms at least 5 days after their discharge. Of the 9 positive patients, 4 cases of transmission took place from patient to caregiver (one patient transmitted COVID-19 to two caregivers), and 6 cases of transmission occurred from caregiver to patient. Of the 54 hospital-acquired cases, 38 occurred in the 8th-floor ward and 8 occurred in the 4th-floor ward. The index case of each ward was a caregiver. Counting the number of cases where transmission occurred only between patients and their own caregivers, 9 patients were suspected of having exposure to COVID-19 from their own caregivers. Six patients (66.7%) were infected by COVID-19-confirmed caregivers, and 3 patients were uninfected. Fewer patients among the infected were able to perform independent activities compared to uninfected patients. Not only patients and healthcare workers but also caregivers groups may be vulnerable to COVID-19 and be transmission sources of nosocomial outbreaks. Therefore, infection control programs for caregivers in addition to patients and healthcare workers can be equally important.

A four-generation family transmission chain of COVID-19 along the China-Myanmar border in October to November 2021

Background

Foreign imported patients and within-household transmission have been the focus and difficulty of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and control, which has also posed challenges to border areas' management. However, household transmission caused by foreign imported cases has not been reported in China's border areas. This study aimed to reveal a clear family clustering transmission chain of COVID-19 caused by contact with Myanmar refugees along the China-Myanmar border during an outbreak in October to November 2021.

Methods

During the outbreak, detailed epidemiological investigations were conducted on confirmed patients with COVID-19 and their close contacts in daily activities. Patients were immediately transported to a designated hospital for treatment and quarantine, and their close contacts were quarantined at designated sites. Regular nucleic acid testing and SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing were provided to them.

Results

A clear four-generation family clustering transmission involving five patients with COVID-19 was found along the China-Myanmar border. The index case (Patient A) was infected by brief conversations with Myanmar refugees across border fences during work. His wife (Patient B) and 9-month-old daughter (Patient C) were second-generation cases infected by daily contact with him. His 2-year-old daughter (Patient D) was the third-generation case infected by her mother and sister during quarantine in the same room and then transmitted the virus to her grandmother (Patient E, the fourth-generation case) who looked after her after Patients B and C were diagnosed and transported to the hospital. The household secondary attack rate was 80.0%, the average latent period was 4 days, and the generation time was 3 days. Ten of 942 close contacts (1.1%) of this family had positive IgM antibody during the medical observation period. In total 73.9% (696/942) of them were positive for IgG antibody and 8.3% (58/696) had IgG levels over 20 S/CO (optical density of the sample/cut-off value of the reagent).

Conclusion

This typical transmission chain indicated that it is essential to strengthen COVID-19 prevention and control in border areas, and explore more effective children care approaches in quarantine sites.