External validation of PREPARE score in Turkish patients who underwent pancreatic surgery

Preoperative nutritional support in patients undergoing pancreatic surgery affects PREPARE score accuracy

Background

This study aimed to validate the accuracy of the Preoperative Pancreatic Resection (PREPARE) risk score in pancreatic resection patients.

Patients and methods

This prospective study included 216 patients who underwent pancreatic resection between January 2015 and December 2018. All patients in our cohort with weight loss or lack of appetite received dietary advice and preoperative oral nutritional supplementation (600 kcal/day). Demographic, clinicopathological, operative, and postoperative data were collected prospectively. The PREPARE score and the predicted risk of major complications were computed for each patient. Differences in major postoperative complications were analyzed using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model. The predicted and observed risks of major complications were tested using the C-statistic.

Results

The study included 216 patients [117 men (54.2%)] with a median age of 65.0 (30.0-83.0) years. The majority of patients were classified as American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA)' Physical Status score II (N = 164/216; 75.9%) and as "low risk" PREPARE score (N = 185/216; 85.6%) before the surgery. Only 4 (1.9%) patients were malnourished, with albumin levels of less than 3.5 g/dl. The most common type of pancreatic resection was a pylorus-preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy (N = 122/216; 56.5%). Major morbidity and 30-day mortality rates were 11.1% and 1.9%, respectively. The type of surgical procedure (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.849; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.208-12.264) and ASA score (HR: 3.089; 95% CI: 1.067-8.947) were significantly associated with the incidence of major postoperative complications in multivariate analysis. The receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.657 for incremental values and 0.559 for risk categories, indicating a weak predictive model.

Conclusion

The results of the present study suggest that the PREPARE risk score has low accuracy in predicting the risk of major complications in patients with consistent preoperative nutritional support. This limits the use of PREPARE risk score in future preoperative clinical routines.

Severe morbidity after pancreatectomy is accurately predicted by preoperative pancreatic resection score (PREPARE): A prospective validation analysis from a medium-volume center

BACKGROUND

Major morbidity in pancreatic surgery remains high. Different scores for predicting complications have been described. Preoperative pancreatic resection (PREPARE) score is based on objective preoperative variables and offers good predictive accuracy for Clavien ≥ III complications. This study aimed to validate this score and analyze other preoperative variables in a prospective study performed in a medium-volume center.

METHODS

A total of 50 pancreatic resections were included. Preoperative variables were registered and PREPARE was calculated. The main outcome was severe morbidity (Clavien ≥ III) up to 30 days after discharge. The secondary outcomes were length of stay (LOS) and readmission. Statistical validation was performed to compare severe morbidity rate among the scores categories. Association with other preoperative variables (not included in PREPARE) was also tested.

RESULTS

Of the 50 pancreatic resections, the severe morbidity was 34.0%, with median LOS of 11 days. Readmission rate was 25.5%. Severe morbidity rates according to PREPARE categories were 18.5% in low-risk group, 41.7% in intermediate-risk group, and 63.6% in high-risk group, respectively (P = 0.023). The accuracy was 72% (Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = 0.86). ROC curve was obtained both for PREPARE score expressed as incremental values and categorized as the three risk groups, showing an area under curve (AUC) of 0.736 (95% CI: 0.586-0.887; P = 0.007) and 0.712 (95% CI: 0.555-0.869; P = 0.015), respectively. PREPARE was significant in multivariate analysis. Median LOS was statistically higher as PREPARE category increases (9, 11 and 15 days in low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively; P = 0.009). Readmission was not associated with any variables.

CONCLUSIONS

PREPARE behaves as an independent risk factor for severe morbidity after pancreatic surgery. Score validation shows good accuracy prediction. Increasing PREPARE category is also associated with longer LOS.