Non-invasive predictors of the presence of large oesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis

Transient elastography and platelet count as noninvasive predictors of gastroesophageal varices in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus-related liver cirrhosis

Background

Early detection of esophageal varices (EV) before the first attack of bleeding is crucial for primary prophylaxis. The current work aims to investigate the use of a combination of FibroScan and platelet count as noninvasive means to identify EV in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Methods

Sixty-two patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis were divided into two groups with and without EV. All patients were exposed to complete history, physical examination, laboratory, and endoscopic evaluation. FibroScan was performed for all patients, and the two groups were compared.

Results

A statistically significant higher mean liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (KPa), lower mean platelet count to splenic diameter ratio (PSR), and higher mean fibrosis-4 (FIB4) score were noticed in those with EV with P < 0.0005. A cutoff value of ≥23.1 for LSM, ≥3.71 for FIB4, and ≥130 mm for splenic diameter have a sensitivity of 94%, 97%, and 97% and a specificity of 81%, 81%, and 68%, respectively, in the detection of varices. Platelet count of ≥112,500 (×103/dl) and of ≥771.33 for PSR have a sensitivity of 84% and 77% and a specificity of 87% and 90%, respectively, to rule out the presence of varices. LSM, FIB4 score, and splenic diameter are predictors of the presence of varices where platelet count and PSR are negative predictors.

Conclusion

The combination of LSM by transient elastography (TE), PSR, or platelet count can be used to detect a relevant category of patients with compensated cirrhosis who have a very low possibility of EV where endoscopy can be avoided.

Correlation of Liver Elastography as a Predictor of Esophageal Varices and Its Comparison With Ultrasound Abdomen and Liver Function Tests in Patients With Chronic Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION

Variceal haemorrhage is a life-threatening complication that occurs in up to 40% of patients with chronic liver disease including cirrhosis. It is associated with a mortality rate of 20% with each episode of variceal bleeding. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy is the gold standard for the detection of esophageal varices but is an invasive procedure and not very cost-effective. Our study was designed to correlate the presence of esophageal varices on endoscopy with the liver stiffness measurement using liver elastography in patients with chronic liver disease. We also compared various non-invasive predictors like laboratory parameters and ultrasound features and correlated them with the presence of varices in patients with chronic liver disease.

METHODOLOGY

This prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary-care hospital in South India from November 2017 to April 2019. All patients with chronic liver disease were subjected to endoscopy, and the presence of esophageal varices and their grading was noted. The predictive efficacy of ultrasound elastography using Toshiba Aplio 500 ultrasound two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) in predicting esophageal varices was calculated and compared with the efficacy of predicting esophageal varices by other non-invasive parameters like laboratory investigations, abdominal ultrasound, and liver scores like Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, fibrosis 4 (FIB-4) score, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) score, and aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR).

RESULTS

The study included a total of 168 patients out of which 57% (96 patients) had no varices. About 52 patients (72.2%) had F1/Grade I varices, 9 (12.5%) had F2/Grade II varices, and 11 (15.3%) had F3/Grade III varices. The greatest predictive value for esophageal varices was liver stiffness with a diagnostic accuracy of 81.7%. Ultrasound features like coarse echotexture of the liver (66.7%), splenomegaly (67%), dilated portal vein (78.6%), and presence of moderate ascites (66.7%) had a significant statistical association with the presence of esophageal varices. Laboratory parameters like thrombocytopenia of less than 1.5 lakhs/cu.mm (52.8%), albumin <3 g/dL (60.4%), and reversal of albumin/globulin ratio (52.4%) were significant predictors of esophageal varices. The odds ratio for significant scores in predicting oesophageal varices using binary logistic regression was significant in patients whose liver elastography grade was more than F4, CTP score was B, MELD score was >11, and FIB-4 scores was >3.25 and between 1.46 and 3.25.

CONCLUSION

Liver elastography is a non-invasive procedure that can be a useful tool in predicting esophageal varices in chronic liver disease. Other non-invasive predictors like ultrasound abdomen and laboratory parameters can also be considered a replacement for repeated invasive endoscopy, thus facilitating early intervention and avoiding unfavourable outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease.

Sonographic gallbladder wall thickness measurement and the prediction of esophageal varices among cirrhotics

Acute variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension (PHT) is the most serious emergency complication among those patients and could have catastrophic ‎outcomes if not timely managed. ‎Early screening by esophago-gastro-duodenoscopy (EGD) for the presence of esophageal varices (EVs) is ‎‎currently recommended by the practice guidelines for all cirrhotic patients. Meanwhile, EGD is not readily accepted or preferred by many patients. The literature is rich in ‎studies to investigate and validate ‎ non-invasive markers of EVs prediction aiming at reducing the unneeded endoscopic procedures. Gallbladder (GB) wall thickness (GBWT) ‎measurement has been found promising in many published research ‎articles. We aim to highlight the validity of sonographic GBWT measurement in the ‎prediction of EVs based on the available evidence.‎ We searched databases including Cochrane library, PubMed, Web of Science and many others for relevant articles. GBWT is associated with the presence of EVs in cirrhotic patients with PHT of different etiologies. The cut-off of GBWT that can predict the presence of EVs varied in the literature and ranges from 3.1 mm to 4.35 mm with variable sensitivities of 46%-90.9% and lower cut-offs in viral cirrhosis compared to non-viral, however GBWT > 4 mm in many studies is associated with acceptable sensitivity up to 90%. Furthermore, a relation was also noticed with the degree of varices and portal hypertensive gastropathy. Among cirrhotics, GBWT > 3.5 mm predicts the presence of advanced (grade III-IV) EVs with a sensitivity of 45%, the sensitivity increased to 92% when a cut-off ≥ 3.95 mm was used in another cohort. Analysis of these results should carefully be revised in the context of ascites, hypoalbuminemia and other intrinsic GB diseases among cirrhotic patients. The sensitivity for prediction of EVs improved upon combining GBWT measurement with other non-invasive predictors, e.g., platelets/GBWT.

Spleen stiffness can predict liver decompensation and survival in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has been predicting liver decompensation and survival in cirrhotics. The aim of our study was to investigate if spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) by 2D shear-wave elastography could predict better the probability of decompensation and mortality, compared with LSM and other parameters.

METHODS

Consecutive cirrhotic patients were recruited between 1/2017 and 12/2021. LSM and SSM were performed at baseline and epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data were collected. Clinical events were recorded every 3 months.

RESULTS

Totally, 177 patients were followed for a mean period of 31 ± 18 months. In Cox regression analysis, only SSM was independently associated with the probability of decompensation (HR: 1.063, 95% CI: 1.009-1.120; P = 0.021), offering an AUROC of 0.710 (P = 0.003) for predicting 1-year liver decompensation (NPV: 81.1% for the cut-off point of 37 kPa). The occurrence of death/liver transplantation was independently associated only with higher SSM (HR: 1.043; 95% CI:1.003-1.084; P = 0.034). The AUROC of SSM for predicting 1-year death/liver transplantation was 0.72 (P = 0.006) (NPV: 95% for the cut-off of 38.8 kPa). The performance of SSM to predict the 1-year death/liver transplantation increased in high-risk patients (CTP: B/C plus MELD >10 plus LSM > 20 kPa), giving an AUROC of 0.80 (P < 0.001). Only 1/26 high-risk patients with SSM < 38.8 kPa died during the first year of follow-up (NPV: 96.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

SSM was the only factor independently associated with the probability of decompensation and occurrence of death, showing better diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of 1-year decompensation or death compared with LSM and MELD score.

Apelin Association with Hepatic Fibrosis and Esophageal Varices in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Virus

Portal hypertension and esophageal varices complicating hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related chronic liver diseases are some of the most devastating sequelae. Angiogenesis is the hallmark of their pathogenesis. Apelin is one of the recently identified angiogenic and fibrogenic peptides. We studied apelin gene expression, apelin (rs3761581) single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), and serum apelin level in patients with chronic HCV, and their association with liver fibrosis and esophageal varices in 112 patients with HCV-related chronic liver disease (40 with liver cirrhosis [LC]/low-grade varices, 33 with LC/high-grade varices, and 39 with fibrotic non-cirrhotic liver/no varices) and 80 healthy control subjects. Real-time polymerase chain reaction was used for apelin gene expression assay and apelin rs3761581 SNP analysis in peripheral blood samples. The serum apelin level was measured by ELISA. Apelin gene expression was undetectable in the studied samples. The SNP analysis revealed a greater frequency of the C (mutant) allele among patients compared with control subjects (P = 0.012; odds ratio, 3.67). The serum apelin level was significantly greater in patients with LC/varices (median, 31.6 ng/L) compared with patients without LC/varices (median, 2.9 ng/L; P < 0.001). A serum apelin level cutoff value of 16.55 ng/L predicted the presence of varices, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.786. A positive correlation was found between serum apelin level and grade of liver fibrosis (r = 0.346, P < 0.001) and portal hypertension (r = 0.438, P < 0.001). In conclusion, the apelin rs3761581-C allele may be associated with the progression of HCV-related chronic liver disease and varices formation, and can be considered a potential therapeutic target to control fibrosis progression. The serum apelin level provided an accurate prediction of the presence of esophageal varices.

Egyptian revalidation of non-invasive parameters for predicting esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

In resource-limited countries, non-invasive tests for assessing liver fibrosis are a potential alternative to costly endoscopic screening for esophageal varices. We aimed to validate several non-invasive parameters for predicting the presence of varices.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between September 2006 and August 2017, a total of 46,014 patients who underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy as one of the perquisites for receiving hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy were enrolled and divided into group I (without varices) and group II (with varices). Non-invasive parameters of fibrosis, namely Lok index, Bonacini score, liver stiffness, FIB-4, Baveno, and extended Baveno criteria, were validated.

RESULTS

Lok index, Bonacini score, liver stiffness, and FIB-4 had areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of >0.6 (all P < 0.01 for the null hypothesis that the AUC was 0.5) for determination of the presence/absence of varices, with cutoff values of 0.80, 6.5, 21.9 kPa, and 2.94, and sensitivities of 74%, 74%, 66%, and 83%, respectively. The expanded Baveno VI criteria performed better than the Baveno VI criteria (spared endoscopy rate 81% versus 63%).

CONCLUSION

The use of non-invasive methods is of limited value in predicting esophageal varices. The limited accuracy of ≤60% may delay the use of appropriate primary prophylaxis against variceal bleeding in a large proportion of cirrhotic patients.

Nomogram for predicting the risk of gastroesophageal varices after primary endoscopic prophylaxis for variceal hemorrhage in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The aim of this study was to identify predictors of non-high-risk gastroesophageal varices and evaluate the probability of the residual high-risk varices in cirrhosis patients after the primary endoscopic treatment.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Medical records of the patients with cirrhosis admitted for primary endoscopic prophylaxis gastroesophageal varices hemorrhage were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into high-risk varices and non-high-risk varices groups according to the endoscopy. A nomogram was developed based on the results of multivariate Cox analyses. Accuracy of this model was validated by the concordance index (Harrell's c-index) and calibration curve.

RESULTS

Altogether 117 patients were enrolled between March 2014 and April 2018. The multivariate Cox analyses identified spleen length <140 mm [odds ratio (OR) = 2.715; P = 0.037), small or medium size of esophageal varices (OR = 4.412; P = 0.017), unaccompanied with gastric varices (OR = 7.025; P = 0.003) and frequency of endoscopic variceal ligation ≥one time per 4 months (OR = 3.834; P = 0.034) as independent factors of non-high-risk varices. All significant predictors were incorporated into a nomogram to predict the residual high-risk varices, which showed a notable accuracy with the concordance index (0.833).

CONCLUSION

The nomogram-based prediction of residual high-risk varices can be used for risk stratification in cirrhosis patients with gastroesophageal varices.

Does gallbladder wall thickness measurement predict esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients with portal hypertension?

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIM

Endoscopy is the gold standard investigation for diagnosis of gastroesophageal varices (GOVs), yet it is invasive, associated with complications. Many noninvasive parameters were investigated to predict the presence of GOVs. The current study investigated gallbladder wall thickening (GBWT) measurement as a noninvasive predictor of GOVs in posthepatitic cirrhotic patients with portal hypertension.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, 105 cirrhotic patients were divided into, group I and II according to the presence or absence of GOVs, respectively. Group I subdivided into, groups A and B according to the grade of GOVs either nonadvanced (grades I and II) or advanced (grades III and IV), respectively. Complete history taking, full clinical examination, full investigations, upper endoscopy and abdominal ultrasonography were performed to examine all patients.

RESULTS

Both groups were comparable in their baseline characteristics except for AST to Platelet Ratio Index and Fibrosis-4 scores, which were significantly higher in group I. GBWT, portal vein diameter and spleen length were significantly associated not only with GOVs but also with its advanced grades. GBWT at a cutoff level >3.1 mm can predict the presence of GOVs with 54.29% sensitivity, 97.14% specificity, 97.4% positive predictive value (PPV), 51.5% negative predictive value (NPV) and 68.5% accuracy. GBWT can predict advanced grades of GOVs at a cutoff level >3.5 mm, with 45% sensitivity, 90% specificity, 64.3% PPV, 80.4% NPV and 77.1% accuracy.

CONCLUSION

GBWT was associated with the presence of GOVs, and with advanced GOVs in posthepatitis cirrhotic patients with portal hypertension.

Accuracy of noninvasive tests in the prediction of portal hypertensive gastropathy in Egyptian patients with cirrhosis

Background and Aim

Liver cirrhosis (LC) is commonly associated with portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG), and it causes gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) is the gold standard in diagnosing PHG. Besides its invasiveness, the disadvantages of EGD include psychological and financial problems. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of different noninvasive screening tools in predicting PHG.

Methods

This cross‐sectional study was conducted on 100 patients with LC who were divided into two groups based on EGD: group (A), 50 patients with LC with PHG, and group (B), 50 patients with LC without PHG. All patients were subjected to history taking, full clinical examination, laboratory investigations, abdominal–pelvic ultrasonography, and EGD.

Results

To predict PHG, the respective sensitivity and specificity of portal vein diameter (>10.5 mm) were 86 and 67%, of gallbladder wall thickness (GBWT) (>3.5 mm) were 64 and 68%, of platelets/GBWT (<40) were 68 and 78%, of aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/platelet ratio index (APRI) score (>1.1) were 60 and 66%, of platelet/spleen diameter (<1290) were 88 and 72%, of right liver lobe diameter/albumin ratio (>4) were 74 and 80%, and of AST/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (>1.1) were 50 and 58% (P = 0.353).

Conclusion

Portal vein diameter, platelet/spleen diameter, and right liver lobe diameter/albumin ratio were independently associated with PHG and were good predictors of the PHG, whereas AST/ALT ratio and King score are poor predictors.

Portal vein flow velocity as a possible fast noninvasive screening tool for esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients

Background and Aim

Esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) is the gold standard tool in both screening/diagnosis and management of varices in cirrhotic patients; however, its invasive nature may be uncomfortable to some patients, and in addition, it may be unavailable in some centers that cannot afford it. Therefore, to decrease the economic and physical burden on patients, multiple noninvasive clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters are evaluated as triage screening predictors of varices before patients' referral to endoscopy. In this respect, we tried to evaluate the validity of portal vein velocity (PVV) as a noninvasive screening tool of esophageal varices (EV).

Methods

One hundred thirty‐five cirrhotic patients were consecutively enrolled in this cross‐sectional study. All patients were evaluated independently and blindly by EGD as the gold standard and then by Doppler ultrasound on portal vein (PV).

Results

Univariate regression showed significant coefficients for PVV, platelet (PLT), albumin, bilirubin, international normalized ratio (INR), portal vein diameter, and ascites; however, multivariable regression showed significant coefficients only for PVV, PLT, and albumin; (P = 0.000, 0.000, and 0.006, respectively). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, LR+, and LR− values were then calculated and validated using bootstrap analysis. PVV was more accurate than other evaluated parameters (AUROC: 0.927 and P = 0.000). The most accurate rule out cutoff value for PVV was ≥19 cm/s with the sensitivity of 97% and LR− of 0.05.

Conclusion

PVV may be useful as a noninvasive triage test for selection of the high‐risk cirrhotic patients who should be referred to and could benefit from EGD. We could highlight using PVV to rule out EV at a cutoff value ≥19 cm/s, reserving EGD only for patients with the PVV value <19 cm/s.

Screening for esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients - Non-invasive methods

Variceal bleeding is a dramatic complication of cirrhosis. Primary prophylaxis against variceal bleeding is indicated for patients with high-risk varices. In order for these patients to be identified, endoscopic screening for esophageal varices has been traditionally recommended at the time of the diagnosis of cirrhosis. Considering that many patients do not have esophageal varices in the early stages of cirrhosis and, therefore, are submitted to endoscopy unnecessarily, non-invasive methods for variceal screening have been studied. Among these non-invasive methods, the most extensively studied probably are platelet count/spleen diameter ratio, liver stiffness, spleen stiffness and an association between liver stiffness and platelet count, referred to as the Baveno VI criteria. The Baveno VI criteria has recently been recommended by different medical associations for variceal screening. This is a critical review on the non-invasive methods for variceal screening, in which the performances of the different methods are presented and the limitations of the existing evidence is discussed. Despite reasonable performances of some of these methods, especially platelet count/spleen diameter ratio and the association between liver stiffness and platelet count, we understand that the available evidence still has relevant limitations and that physicians should decide on screening cirrhotic patients for esophageal varices with endoscopy or non-invasive methods on a case-by-case basis.

Non-invasive assessment of large esophageal varices with liver cirrhosis ; a study conducted in Pakistan

The assessment of non-invasive parameters for the prediction of large esophageal varices among patients with liver cirrhosisis is of utmost importance. In this study, non-invasive parameters for prediction of large esophageal varices were retrospectively evaluated. The presence of esophageal varices grade III and IV was classified as large esophageal varices positive while no varices or grade I and II were classified as large esophageal varices negative. There were 473 (90.09%) patients with ascites [mild 38 (8.03%), moderate 257 (54.33%) and severe 178 (37.63%)]. Frequency of esophageal varices was found to be higher (n=415, 79.04%). Whereas, large esophageal varices were found in 251 (47.81%) patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value, negative predicted value and test accuracy of thrombocytopenia in predicting large esophageal varices were found to be 88.05%, 59.85%, 66.77%, 84.54% and 73.33% respectively. A significant association for large esophageal varices was observed for low platelet counts (AOR : 0.98, 95% CI : 0.97-0.99), high bilirubin level (AOR : 1.22, 95% CI : 1.07-1.39), ascites (AOR : 1.98, CI : 1.02-3.85) and Child score A (AOR : 0.26, 95% CI : 0.09-0.75) and Child Score B (AOR : 0.42, 95% CI : 0.28-0.61). In conclusion, low platelet count, high bilirubin level and ascites are found to be non-invasive predictive factor for large esophageal varices. J. Med. Invest. 66 : 248-251, August, 2019.

The von Willebrand Factor antigen to platelet ratio (VITRO) score predicts hepatic decompensation and mortality in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The ratio of von Willebrand Factor to platelets (VITRO) reflects the severity of fibrosis and portal hypertension and might thus hold prognostic value.

METHODS

Patients with compensated cirrhosis were recruited. VITRO, Child-Pugh score (CPS) and MELD were determined at study entry. Hepatic decompensation was defined as variceal bleeding, ascites or hepatic encephalopathy. Liver transplantation and death were recorded.

RESULTS

One hundred and ninety-four patients with compensated cirrhosis (CPS-A 89%, B 11%; 56% male; median age 56 years; 50% with varices) were included. During a median follow-up of 45 months (IQR 29-61), decompensation occurred in 35 (18%) patients and 14 (7%) patients deceased. The risk of hepatic decompensation was significantly increased in the n = 88 (45%) patients with a VITRO ≥ 2.5 (p < 0.001). Patients with a VITRO ≥ 2.5 had a higher probability of decompensation at 1-year 9% (95% CI 3-16) vs. 0% (95% CI 0-0) and at 2-years 18% (95% CI 10-27%), vs. 4% (95% CI 0-8%) as compared to patients with VITRO < 2.5. Patients with VITRO ≥ 2.5, the estimated 1-year/2-year survival rates were at 98% (95% CI 95-100%) and 94% (95% CI 88-99%) as compared to 100% (95% CI 100-100%) both in the patients with a VITRO < 2.5 (p < 0.001). After adjusting for age, albumin and MELD, VITRO ≥ 2.5 remained as significant predictor of transplant-free mortality (HR 1.38, CI 1.09-1.76; p = 0.007). Patients with compensated cirrhosis and VITRO > 2.1 after hepatitis C eradication remained at significantly increased risk for decompensation (p = 0.033).

CONCLUSIONS

VITRO is a valuable prognostic tool for estimating the risk of decompensation and mortality in patients with compensated cirrhosis-including the setting after hepatitis C eradication.

Evaluation of non-invasive marker of esophageal varices in cirrhosis of liver

Introduction

Esophageal varices develop as a consequence of portal hypertension (PHT) in patients with chronic liver disease. Hence, screening of all cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal endoscopy to detect the presence of significant esophageal varices implies a number of unnecessary endoscopies and has its limitation where such facilities are not available, especially in the rural part of country.

Method

Patients with either sex, aged between 18 and 60 years with diagnosis of cirrhosis were studied. Detailed history, physical examination along with relevant investigations were recorded and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy was done within 2-3 days of investigation. Esophageal varices were graded as I-IV, using the Paquet grading system and patients were classified dichotomously either as having large esophageal varices (LEV) group A (Grade III-IV) and no varices group B (grade I-II).

Result

A total of 50 patients with cirrhosis of liver were recruited in the study. Among hematological markers, only low platelet count was significantly associated with the presence of LEV (P value <0.05). None of the biochemical markers were found to be significantly associated with LEV. All the ultrasonographic parameters, i.e. spleen size, splenic vein size, portal vein size, and the presence of portosystemic collaterals were found to be significantly associated with the presence of LEV (P value <0.05).

Conclusion

Though upper gastrointestinal endoscopy remains the gold standard for the diagnosis of esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients,those patients at high risk of having LEV can be screened by using clinical, hematological, biochemical, and radiological markers.

The magnitude and correlates of esophageal Varices among newly diagnosed cirrhotic patients undergoing screening fibre optic endoscope before incident bleeding in North-Western Tanzania; a cross-sectional study

Background

Bleeding esophageal varices is a deadly complication of liver cirrhosis. Guidelines recommend an early diagnosis of esophageal varices before incident bleeding by screening all patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis. Though it has been reported elsewhere that the presence of esophageal varices varies widely among cirrhotic patients this has not been assessed in Tanzania since endoscopy is not readily available for routine use in our setting. This study was designed to determine the prevalence of esophageal varices and assess the utility of clinical parameters in predicting the presence of varices among cirrhotic patients in northwestern Tanzania.

Methods

A cross-sectional analysis of adult patients with liver cirrhosis was done at Bugando Medical Centre. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and endoscopic data were collected and analyzed using STATA 13. The presence of esophageal varices was detected using endoscopic examination and associated factors were assessed by logistic regression. The predictive value of clinical predictors was also assessed by calculating sensitivity and specificity.

Results

A total of 223 patients were enrolled, where 88 (39.5%; 95%CI: 33.0–45.9) had esophageal varices. The varices were independently associated with increased age (OR: 1.02; 95%CI: 1.0–1.04; p = 0.030); increased splenic diameter (OR:1.3; 95%CI:1.2–1.5; p <  0.001), increased portal vein diameter (OR:1.2; 95%CI: 1.07–1.4; p = 0.003), having ascites (OR: 3.0; 95%CI: 1.01–8.7; p = 0.046), and advanced liver disease (OR: 2.9; 95%CI: 1.3–6.7; p = 0.008). PSDR least performed in predicting varices, (AUC: 0.382; 95%CI: 0.304–0.459; cutoff: < 640; Sensitivity: 58.0%; 95%CI: 46.9–68.4; specificity: 57.0%; 95%CI: 48.2–65.5). SPD had better prediction; (AUC: 0.713; 95%CI: 0.646–0.781; cut off: > 15.2 cm; sensitivity: 65.9%; (95% CI: 55–75.7 and specificity:65.2%; 95%CI: 56.5–73.2), followed by PVD, (AUC: 0.6392; 95%CI: 0.566–0.712;cutoff: > 1.45 cm; sensitivity: 62.5%; 95CI: 51.5–72.6; specificity: 61.5%; 95%CI: 52.7–69.7).

Conclusion

Esophageal varices were prevalent among cirrhotic patients, most of which were at risk of bleeding. The non-invasive prediction of varices was not strong enough to replace endoscopic diagnosis. However, the predictors in this study can potentially assist in the selection of patients at high risk of having varices and prioritize them for endoscopic screening and appropriate management.

Role of Spleen Stiffness Measurement by 2D-Shear Wave Elastography in Ruling Out the Presence of High-Risk Varices in Cirrhotic Patients

BACKGROUND AND AIM

To evaluate if spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) can rule out the presence of high-risk varices in patients with cirrhosis, avoiding an upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE).

METHODS

We enrolled 71 cirrhotic patients irrespective of liver disease's etiology. 2D shear wave elastography (SWE) of spleen and UGE was performed. High-risk varices (HRV) were defined as esophageal varices ≥ 5 mm and/or red spots and any gastric varices.

RESULTS

Esophageal varices were documented in 37 (52.1%) and HRV in 25 (35.2%) patients. SSM was not technically feasible in 7/71 patients (9.8%). From the remaining 64 patients, when those with cholestatic liver disease were excluded (n = 17), SSM < 35.8 kPa was found to exclude well the existence of HRV offering an AUROC of 0.854 (p < 0.001), sensitivity 88.9%, negative predictive value (NPV) 91.3%, specificity 72.4%, and positive predictive value (PPV) 66.7%. Only 2/47 patients (4.3%) were misclassified, and 23 (48.9%) could avoid endoscopy. In the total cohort of 64 patients, SSM < 33.7 kPa was found to exclude well the presence of HRV offering AUROC 0.792 (p < 0.001), sensitivity 91.7%, specificity 60%, NPV 92.3%, and PPV 57.9%. The misclassification rate was 3.1% (2/64), while 26/64 (40.6%) could avoid endoscopy.

CONCLUSIONS

2D-SWE of spleen is a reliable method for ruling out the presence of HRV in cirrhotic patients. If larger studies confirm our results, a large number of endoscopies could be avoided.

Percentage of small platelets on peripheral blood smear and Child-Turcott-Pugh class can predict the presence of oesophageal varices in newly diagnosed patients with cirrhosis: development of a prediction model for resource limited settings

Background

In cirrhosis upper-gastrointestinal-endoscopy (UGIE) identifies oesophageal varices (OV). UGIE is unavailable in most resource-limited settings. Therefore, we assessed prediction of presence of OV using hematological parameters (HP) and Child-Turcott-Pugh (CTP) class.

Methods

A prospective study was carried out on consecutive, consenting, newly-diagnosed patients with cirrhosis, in the University Medical Unit, Colombo North Teaching Hospital, Ragama, Sri Lanka from April 2014–April 2016. All patients had UGIE to evaluate presence and degree of OV, prior to appropriate therapy. HP (full blood count with indices using automated analyzer and peripheral blood smear using Leishmann stain) and CTP class were assessed on admission. Linear logistic regression model was developed to predict OV using HP and CTP class.

Results

54-patients with cirrhosis were included [14(26%), 24(44%) and 16(30%) belonged to CTP class A, B and C respectively]. 37 had varices [CTP-A 4/14(26.6%), CTP-B 19/24(79.2%), CTP-C 14/16(87.5%)] on UGIE. Generalized linear model fitting showed decreasing percentage of small platelets (%SP) (P = 0.002), CTP-B (P = 0.003) and CTP-C (P = 0.003) compared to CTP-A had higher probability of having OV. The model predicts the log odds for having OV = − 0.189 – (0.046*%SP) + 2.9 [if CTP-B] + 3.7 [if CTP-C]. Based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, a model value > − 0.19 was selected as the cutoff point to predict OV with 89%-sensitivity, 76%-specificity, 89%-positive predictive value and 76%-negative predictive value.

Conclusions

We constructed a model using %SP on peripheral blood smear and CTP class. This model may be used to predict the presence of OV, in newly diagnosed patients with cirrhosis, with acceptable sensitivity and specificity, to prioritize the patients who deserve early UGIE in limited resource settings.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12876-019-1054-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The relationship between fibrosis and nodule structure and esophageal varices

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the histopathological findings of cirrhosis together with clinical and laboratory parameters, and to investigate their relationship with esophageal varices that are portal hypertension findings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 67 (42 male and 25 female) patients who were diagnosed with cirrhosis were included in the study. The mean age of the patients was 51.6±19.0 (1-81) years. The biopsy specimens of the patients were graded in terms of fibrosis, nodularity, loss of portal area, central venous loss, inflammation, and steatosis. The spleen sizes were graded ultrasonographically, and the esophageal varices were graded endoscopically.

RESULTS

In the multivariate regression analysis, there was a correlation between the advanced disease stage (Child-Pugh score odds ratio (OR): 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.018-2.121, p=0.040), presence of micronodularity (OR: 0.318, 95% CI: 0.120-0.842, p=0.021), grade of central venous loss (OR: 5.231, 95% CI: 1.132-24.176, p=0.034), and presence of esophageal varicose veins.

CONCLUSION

Although thrombocytopenia and splenomegaly may predict the presence of large esophageal varices, cirrhosis histopathology is the main factor in the presence of varices.

Real-life experience of lusutrombopag for cirrhotic patients with low platelet counts being prepared for invasive procedures

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The present study aimed to report our real-life experience of the TPO receptor agonist lusutrombopag for cirrhotic patients with low platelet counts.

METHODS

We studied platelet counts in 1,760 cirrhotic patients undergoing invasive procedures at our hospital between January 2014 and December 2017. In addition, we studied 25 patients who were administered lusutrombopag before invasive procedures between June 2017 and January 2018. Effectiveness of lusutrombopag to raise platelet counts and to avoid transfusion and treatment-related adverse events were analyzed.

RESULTS

In 1,760 cirrhotic patients without lusutrombopag prior to invasive procedures, proportion of patients whose platelet counts <50,000/μL and needed platelet transfusions were 66% (n = 27/41) for radiofrequency ablation, 43% (n = 21/49) for transarterial chemoembolization, and 55% (n = 21/38) for endoscopic injection sclerotherapy / endoscopic variceal ligation, respectively. In 25 cirrhotic patients treated by lusutrombopag prior to the invasive procedures, platelet counts significantly increased compared with baseline (82,000 ± 26,000 vs. 41,000 ± 11,000/μL) (p < 0.01). Out of 25 patients, only 4 patients (16%) needed platelet transfusion before the invasive procedures. The proportion of patients with low platelet count and who needed platelet transfusions was significantly low in patients treated with lusutrombopag compared to those not treated with lusutrombopag (16% (4/25) vs. 54% (69/128), p = 0.001). Platelet counts after lusutrombopag treatment and prior to invasive procedures were lower in patients with a baseline platelet count ≤30,000/μL (n = 8) compared with those with a baseline platelet count >30,000/μL (n = 17) (50,000 ± 20,000 vs 86,000 ± 26,000/μL, p = 0.002). Patients with a baseline platelet count ≤30,000/μL with spleen index (calculated by multiplying the transverse diameter by the vertical diameter measured by ultrasonography) ≥40 cm2 (n = 3) had a lower response rate to lusutrombopag compared to those with spleen index <40 cm2 (n = 5) (0% vs. 100%, p = 0.02). Hemorrhagic complication was not observed. Recurrence of portal thrombosis was observed and thrombolysis therapy was required in one patient who had prior history of thrombosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Lusutrombopag is an effective and safe drug for thrombocytopenia in cirrhotic patients, and can reduce the frequency of platelet transfusions.

Detection of Treg/Th17 cells and related cytokines in peripheral blood of chronic hepatitis B patients combined with thrombocytopenia and the clinical significance

Changes of regulatory T (Treg) cells and Th17 cells, and related cytokines in peripheral blood of patients with chronic hepatitis B combined with thrombocytopenia were investigated to explore the relationship with treatment outcomes. A total of 45 chronic hepatitis B patients combined with thrombocytopenia were selected in Heilongjiang Provincial Hospital from June 2015 to December 2016. All patients were treated with prednisolone acetate + γ globulins for 60 days. Treg cells and Th17 cells in peripheral blood were detected by flow cytometry, and IL-10, TGF-β, IL-17, IL-21 and IL-22 in peripheral blood were detected by ELISA before and after treatment. No significant differences in the percentages of Treg and Th17, and levels of IL-10, TGF-β, IL-17, IL-21 and IL-22 were found in non-responders (n=17, platelets <100×10⁹/l) before and after treatment (P>0.05). After treatment, percentage of Treg was significantly increased (higher than that of non-responders) and percentage of Th17 was significantly decreased (lower than that of non-responders) in responders (P<0.05). In addition, serum levels of IL-10 and TGF-β were significantly increased (higher than that of non-responders) and serum levels of IL-17, IL-21 and IL-22 were significantly decreased (lower than that of non-responders) in responders (P<0.05). The results showed that after treatment, the number of Treg cells was increased, the number of Th17 cells was decreased, the levels of anti-inflammatory factors IL-10 and TGF-β were increased, and levels of pro-inflammatory factors IL-17, IL-21 and IL-22 were decreased in chronic hepatitis B patients combined with thrombocytopenia, indicating the decreased autoimmune response and improved thrombocytopenia. The changes were closely related to the complete response.

Sublingual microcirculatory alterations in cirrhotic patients

OBJECTIVE

To assess sublingual microcirculation in cirrhotic patients and its relationship to spider angiomas, complications, and outcome.

METHODS

Thirty-one cirrhotic patients were prospectively compared to 31 matched controls. Sublingual microcirculation was evaluated by videomicroscopy. We specifically looked for capillaries with increased RBCV, which was defined as a velocity higher than the percentile 100th of controls.

RESULTS

Compared to controls, cirrhotic patients showed decreased total and PVD (14.4 ± 2.2 vs 16.0 ± 1.3 and 14.1 ± 2.3 vs 15.9 ± 1.6 mm/mm² , respectively, P < .001 for both) and increased HFI (0.64 ± 0.39 vs 0.36 ± 0.21, P = .001). They also exhibited high RBCV in 2% of the microvessels (P < .0001). Patients with MELD score ≥10 had higher RBCV than patients with score <10 (1414 ± 290 vs 1206 ± 239 μm/s, P < .05). Patients with spider angiomas showed lower vascular densities. Microcirculation did not differ between survivors and nonsurvivors.

CONCLUSIONS

Cirrhosis is associated with microcirculatory alterations that can be easily monitored in the sublingual mucosa. Alterations included decreased density and PPV and hyperdynamic microvessels. The most striking finding, however, was the microvascular heterogeneity. Patients with spider angiomas had more severe alterations. Larger studies should clarify the relationship between microcirculatory abnormalities and outcome.

A novel scoring system for prediction of esophageal varices in critically ill patients

Background and aims

Patients with advanced systemic illness or critically ill patients may present with upper gastrointestinal tract (GIT) bleeding which may need endoscopic intervention; however, this may expose them to unnecessary endoscopy. The aim was to validate a novel scoring system for risk stratification for urgency of GIT endoscopy in critically ill patients.

Methods

This is an observational study conducted from January 2013 to January 2016 to analyze 300 patients with critical medical conditions and presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Meticulous clinical, laboratory, and sonographic evaluations were performed to calculate Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS) and variceal metric score for risk stratification and prediction of the presence of esophageal varices (OV). Finally, this score was applied on a validation group (n=100).

Results

The use of GBS and variceal metric scores in critically ill patients revealed that patients who showed a low risk score value for OV (0-4 points) and GBS <2 can be treated conservatively and discharged safely without urgent endoscopy. In patients with a low risk for varices but GBS >2, none of them had OV on endoscopy. In patients with intermediate risk score value for OV (5-8 points) and with GBS >2, 33.33% of them had varices on endoscopy. In patients with high risk score value for varices (9-13) and GBS >2, endoscopy revealed varices in 94.4% of them. Finally, in patients with very high risk score for varices (14-17), endoscopy revealed varices in 100% of them.

Conclusion

GBS and variceal metric score were highly efficacious in identifying critically ill patients who will benefit from therapeutic endoscopic intervention.

Influence of sustained viral response on the regression of fibrosis and portal hypertension in cirrhotic HCV patients treated with antiviral triple therapy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The regression of liver fibrosis and portal hypertension (PH) and their influence on the natural history of compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis has not been studied previously. Our objective was to evaluate the influence of sustained virologic response (SVR) on the portal pressure gradient (HVPG) and non-invasive parameters of PH and prognostic factors of response.

METHODS

Sixteen patients with compensated HCV genotype 1-related cirrhosis with PH (HVPG > 6 mmHg) without beta-blocker therapy were considered as candidates for PEGα2a + RBV + BOC (48 weeks; lead-in and accepted stopping rules). A hemodynamic study and Fibroscan® were performed at baseline, at eight weeks and, in the case of SVR, 24 weeks after treatment. In each hemodynamic study, serum samples were analyzed for inflammatory biomarkers associated with PH.

RESULTS

In eight cases, SVR was obtained; five patients relapsed, and treatment was stopped early for non-response to lead in (one case) and a decrease of < 3 log at week 8 (two patients). Compared to baseline, there was a significant decrease in HVPG and Fibroscan® at weeks 8 and 72 (10.31 ± 4.3 vs 9.4 ± 5.04 vs 6.1 ± 3.61 mmHg, p < 0.0001 and 21.3 ± 14.5 vs 16.2 ± 9.5 vs 6.4 ± 4.5 kPa, p < 0.0001, respectively). The average HVPG decrease in SVR was 40.8 ± 17.53%, achieving an HVPG < 6 mmHg in five patients (62.5%) and a Fibroscan® < 7.1 kPa in three patients (37.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Complete hemodynamic response (HVPG < 6 mmHg) and fibrosis regression (Fibroscan® < 7.1 kPa) occur in more than half and one-third of patients achieving SVR, respectively, and must be another target in cirrhotic patients with SVR.

Validation of noninvasive methods to predict the presence of gastroesophageal varices in a cohort of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The aim was to validate noninvasive methods to predict the presence of gastroesophageal varices (GEV) in patients with suspected compensated advanced chronic liver disease.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed clinical and radiological data collected prospectively between September 2013 and September 2015. We reviewed 442 consecutive patients with suspected compensated advanced chronic liver disease measured by transient elastography (TE) and a gastroscopy. We evaluated platelets, spleen diameter, TE, liver stiffness × spleen size/platelets (LSPS), variceal risk index (VRI), Baveno VI strategy, and Augustin algorithm.

RESULTS

One hundred sixty-one out of 442 patients were included. Patients with GEV were compared with patients without GEV and showed statistically significant differences in platelet count (117 SD 51 vs 149 SD 62; P = 0.02), spleen diameter (13.0 SD 1.9 vs 11.5 SD 2; P = 0.003), and TE (28 SD 15 vs 19 SD 10; P = 0.001). Single methods (platelet count and TE) diagnosed correctly 51% and 71.4% of patients. Combined methods (LSPS, VRI, Baveno VI, and Augustin algorithm) diagnosed correctly 78%, 83.6%, 45.3%, and 57.1% of patients. Patients with GEV misdiagnosed: platelets 5/161 (3.1%), TE 6/161 (3.7%), LSPS 16/159 (10%), VRI 18/159 (11.3%), Baveno VI 3/161 (1.8%), and Augustin algorithm 6/161 (3.7%). Rate of unnecessary gastroscopies: platelets 46%, TE 25%, LSPS 13%, VRI 6%, Baveno VI 53%, and Augustin algorithm 39.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant number of patients were classified correctly using TE, LSPS, and VRI; however, LSPS and VRI had unacceptable rates of misdiagnoses. TE is the best noninvasive single method and the Baveno VI strategy the best combined method.

Ultrathin disposable gastroscope for screening and surveillance of gastroesophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis: a prospective comparative study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aims to evaluate the role of unsedated, ultrathin disposable gastroscopy (TDG) against conventional gastroscopy (CG) in the screening and surveillance of gastroesophageal varices (GEVs) in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHOD

Forty-eight patients (56.4 ± 1.3 years; 38 male, 10 female) with liver cirrhosis referred for screening (n = 12) or surveillance (n = 36) of GEVs were prospectively enrolled. Unsedated gastroscopy was initially performed with TDG, followed by CG with conscious sedation. The 2 gastroscopies were performed by different endoscopists blinded to the results of the previous examination. Video recordings of both gastroscopies were validated by an independent investigator in a random, blinded fashion. Endpoints were accuracy and interobserver agreement of detecting GEVs, safety, and potential cost saving.

RESULTS

CG identified GEVs in 26 (54%) patients, 10 of whom (21%) had high-risk esophageal varices (HREV). Compared with CG, TDG had an accuracy of 92% for the detection of all GEVs, which increased to 100% for high-risk GEVs. The interobserver agreement for detecting all GEVs on TDG was 88% (κ = 0.74). This increased to 94% (κ = 0.82) for high-risk GEVs. There were no serious adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

Unsedated TDG is safe and has high diagnostic accuracy and interobserver reliability for the detection of GEVs. The use of clinic-based TDG would allow immediate determination of a follow-up plan, making it attractive for variceal screening and surveillance programs. (Clinical trial (ANZCTR) registration number: ACTRN12616001103459.).

Predictive Value of Mean Platelet Volume in Variceal Bleeding due to Cirrhotic Portal Hypertension

Aim:

To investigate whether mean platelet volume (MPV) is a predictor of variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension.

Materials and methods:

This prospective cohort was performed in the internal medicine department of our tertiary care center. Cirrhotic patients were allocated into two groups: Group I consisted of 31 cases without a history of variceal bleeding, whereas group II was made up of 31 patients with a history of variceal bleeding. Data derived from medical history, physical examination, ultrasonography, gastrointestinal system endoscopy, complete blood count, hepatic, and renal function tests were recorded and compared between two groups. On physical examination, encephalopathy and ascites were evaluated and graded with respect to Child-Pugh-Turcotte classification.

Results:

There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of age, duration of the disease, and gender of the patient. The only remarkable difference was that hemoglobin (p = 0.02) and hematocrit (p = 0.02) values were lower in group II. Neither the etiology of bleeding was different between groups nor did MPV seem to have a noteworthy impact on bleeding. Interestingly, risk of variceal bleeding increased in parallel to the higher grade of varices.

Conclusion:

Our results imply that there is a correlation between the grade of varices and esophageal vari-ceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients. However, association between MPV and variceal bleeding could not be demonstrated. Utilization of noninvasive tests as predictors in these patients necessitates further controlled trials on larger series.

How to cite this article: Erdogan MA, Benli AR, Acmali SB, Koroglu M, Atayan Y, Danalioglu A, Kayhan B. Predictive Value of Mean Platelet Volume in Variceal Bleeding due to Cirrhotic Portal Hypertension. Euroasian J Hepato-Gastroenterol 2017;7(1):6-10.

Platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices in people with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend screening of people with oesophageal varices via oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy at the time of diagnosis of hepatic cirrhosis. This requires that people repeatedly undergo unpleasant invasive procedures with their attendant risks, although half of these people have no identifiable oesophageal varices 10 years after the initial diagnosis of cirrhosis. Platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio are non-invasive tests proposed as triage tests for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices.

OBJECTIVES

Primary objectives To determine the diagnostic accuracy of platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices of any size in paediatric or adult patients with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis, irrespective of aetiology. To investigate the accuracy of these non-invasive tests as triage or replacement of oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy. Secondary objectives To compare the diagnostic accuracy of these same tests for the diagnosis of high-risk oesophageal varices in paediatric or adult patients with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis, irrespective of aetiology.We aimed to perform pair-wise comparisons between the three index tests, while considering predefined cut-off values.We investigated sources of heterogeneity.

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies Register, the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), and Science Citation Index - Expanded (Web of Science) (14 June 2016). We applied no language or document-type restrictions.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices via oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy as the reference standard in children or adults of any age with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis, who did not have variceal bleeding.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Standard Cochrane methods as outlined in the Cochrane Handbook for Diagnostic Test of Accuracy Reviews.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 71 studies, 67 of which enrolled only adults and four only children. All included studies were cross-sectional and were undertaken at a tertiary care centre. Eight studies reported study results in abstracts or letters. We considered all but one of the included studies to be at high risk of bias. We had major concerns about defining the cut-off value for the three index tests; most included studies derived the best cut-off values a posteriori, thus overestimating accuracy; 16 studies were designed to validate the 909 (n/mm³⁾/mm cut-off value for platelet count-to-spleen length ratio. Enrolment of participants was not consecutive in six studies and was unclear in 31 studies. Thirty-four studies assessed enrolment consecutively. Eleven studies excluded some included participants from the analyses, and in only one study, the time interval between index tests and the reference standard was longer than three months. Diagnosis of varices of any size. Platelet count showed sensitivity of 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63 to 0.77) and specificity of 0.80 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.88) (cut-off value of around 150,000/mm³ from 140,000 to 150,000/mm³; 10 studies, 2054 participants). When examining potential sources of heterogeneity, we found that of all predefined factors, only aetiology had a role: studies including participants with chronic hepatitis C reported different results when compared with studies including participants with mixed aetiologies (P = 0.036). Spleen length showed sensitivity of 0.85 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.91) and specificity of 0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.62) (cut-off values of around 110 mm, from 110 to 112.5 mm; 13 studies, 1489 participants). Summary estimates for detection of varices of any size showed sensitivity of 0.93 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.97) and specificity of 0.84 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.91) in 17 studies, and 2637 participants had a cut-off value for platelet count-to-spleen length ratio of 909 (n/mm³)/mm. We found no effect of predefined sources of heterogeneity. An overall indirect comparison of the HSROCs of the three index tests showed that platelet count-to-spleen length ratio was the most accurate index test when compared with platelet count (P < 0.001) and spleen length (P < 0.001). Diagnosis of varices at high risk of bleeding. Platelet count showed sensitivity of 0.80 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.85) and specificity of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.77) (cut-off value of around 150,000/mm³ from 140,000 to 160,000/mm³; seven studies, 1671 participants). For spleen length, we obtained only a summary ROC curve as we found no common cut-off between studies (six studies, 883 participants). Platelet count-to-spleen length ratio showed sensitivity of 0.85 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.93) and specificity of 0.66 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.77) (cut-off value of around 909 (n/mm³)/mm; from 897 to 921 (n/mm³)/mm; seven studies, 642 participants). An overall indirect comparison of the HSROCs of the three index tests showed that platelet count-to-spleen length ratio was the most accurate index test when compared with platelet count (P = 0.003) and spleen length (P < 0.001). DIagnosis of varices of any size in children. We found four studies including 277 children with different liver diseases and or portal vein thrombosis. Platelet count showed sensitivity of 0.71 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.80) and specificity of 0.83 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.91) (cut-off value of around 115,000/mm³; four studies, 277 participants). Platelet count-to-spleen length z-score ratio showed sensitivity of 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.81) and specificity of 0.64 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.84) (cut-off value of 25; two studies, 197 participants).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Platelet count-to-spleen length ratio could be used to stratify the risk of oesophageal varices. This test can be used as a triage test before endoscopy, thus ruling out adults without varices. In the case of a ratio > 909 (n/mm³)/mm, the presence of oesophageal varices of any size can be excluded and only 7% of adults with varices of any size would be missed, allowing investigators to spare the number of oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy examinations. This test is not accurate enough for identification of oesophageal varices at high risk of bleeding that require primary prophylaxis. Future studies should assess the diagnostic accuracy of this test in specific subgroups of patients, as well as its ability to predict variceal bleeding. New non-invasive tests should be examined.

Baveno VI Recommendation on Avoidance of Screening Endoscopy in Cirrhotic Patients: Are We There Yet?

INTRODUCTION

Recent studies assessed the predictive value of liver transient elastography, combined or not with platelet count, for the presence of esophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis, and multiple cutoffs have been proposed. The Baveno VI consensus states that patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease, liver stiffness <20 kPa, and a platelet count >150,000 have a very low risk of having varices requiring treatment and can avoid screening endoscopy. We aimed to validate this recommendation in a cohort of cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of all patients evaluated at the Gastroenterology Department (Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Central) between September 2009 and October 2015 with a liver stiffness (FibroScan®) compatible with liver cirrhosis as well as upper endoscopy and blood tests within 12 months from elastography. Patients on propranolol ≥80 mg/day or carvedilol ≥12.5 mg/day, as well as those with previous variceal bleeding, variceal endoscopic treatments, or cirrhosis decompensations were excluded. We validated the new Baveno VI recommendation and explored alternative cutoffs.

RESULTS

Ninety-seven patients were analyzed, 76.3% (74/97) male, mean age 54.3 ± 11.2 years. Most patients (55.7%) had no varices and 14.4% had varices requiring treatment. Most patients (78.4%) had cirrhosis related to chronic hepatitis C. If the new Baveno VI recommendation had been applied to this cohort, upper endoscopy would have been avoided in 11.3% (11/97) of patients, none of them with esophageal varices requiring treatment: specificity 100%, sensitivity 13.3%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 16.3% for absence of varices requiring treatment. If screening endoscopy had been avoided in those patients with liver stiffness <30 kPa and platelet count ≥120,000, endoscopy would have been avoided in 27.8% (27/97) of patients, none of whom with esophageal varices requiring treatment: specificity 100%, sensitivity 32.5%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 20% for absence of varices requiring treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The new Baveno VI criteria identified compensated cirrhotic patients without varices requiring treatment in whom screening endoscopy could have been avoided safely. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and potentially explore more ambitious but still safe cutoffs for those criteria.

Diagnostic non-invasive model of large risky esophageal varices in cirrhotic hepatitis C virus patients

AIM

To build a diagnostic non-invasive model for screening of large varices in cirrhotic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients.

METHODS

This study was conducted on 124 post-HCV cirrhotic patients presenting to the clinics of the Endemic Medicine Department at Mansoura University Hospital for evaluation before HCV antiviral therapy: 78 were Child A and 46 were Child B (score ≤ 8). Inclusion criteria for patients enrolled in this study was presence of cirrhotic HCV (diagnosed by either biopsy or fulfillment of clinical basis). Exclusion criteria consisted of patients with other etiologies of liver cirrhosis, e.g., hepatitis B virus and patients with high MELD score on transplant list. All patients were subjected to full medical record, full basic investigations, endoscopy, and computed tomography (CT), and then divided into groups with no varices, small varices, or large risky varices. In addition, values of Fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4), aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and platelet count/splenic diameter ratio (PC/SD) were also calculated.

RESULTS

Detection of large varies is a multi-factorial process, affected by many variables. Choosing binary logistic regression, dependent factors were either large or small varices while independent factors included CT variables such coronary vein diameter, portal vein (PV) diameter, lieno-renal shunt and other laboratory non-invasive variables namely FIB-4, APRI, and platelet count/splenic diameter. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to determine the accuracy of non-invasive parameters for predicting the presence of large esophageal varices and the area under the ROC curve for each one of these parameters was obtained. A model was established and the best model for prediction of large risky esophageal varices used both PC/SD and PV diameter (75% accuracy), while the logistic model equation was shown to be (PV diameter × -0.256) plus (PC/SD × -0.006) plus (8.155). Values nearing 2 or more denote large varices.

CONCLUSION

This model equation has 86.9% sensitivity and 57.1% specificity, and would be of clinical applicability with 75% accuracy.

Liver and spleen stiffness and other noninvasive methods to assess portal hypertension in cirrhotic patients: a review of the literature

Portal hypertension (PH) is one of the most important causes of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. PH measurement is crucial to stage and predict the clinical outcome of liver cirrhosis. Measurement of hepatic vein pressure gradient is considered the gold standard for assessment of the degree of PH; however, it is an invasive method and has not been used widely. Thus, noninvasive methods have been proposed recently. We critically evaluated serum markers, abdominal ultrasonography, and particularly liver and spleen stiffness measurement, which represent the more promising methods to stage PH degree and to assess the presence/absence of esophageal varices (EV). A literature search was carried out on MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Scopus for articles and abstracts. The search terms used included 'liver cirrhosis', 'portal hypertension', 'liver stiffness', 'spleen stiffness', 'ultrasonography', and 'portal hypertension serum biomarker'. The articles cited were selected on the basis of their relevance to the objective of the review. The results of available studies indicate that individually, these methods have a mild accuracy in predicting the presence of EV, and thus they cannot substitute endoscopy to predict EV. When these tests were used in combination, their accuracy increased. In addition to the PH staging, several serum markers and spleen stiffness measurement can predict the clinical outcome of liver cirrhosis with a good accuracy, comparable to that of hepatic vein pressure gradient. In the future, noninvasive methods could be used to select patients requiring further investigations to identify the best tailored clinical management.

Noninvasive predictors of presence and grade of esophageal varices in viral cirrhotic patients

Predicting the presence and the grade of varices by non-invasive methods is likely to predict the need for prophylactic beta blockers or endoscopic variceal ligation. The factors related to the presence of varices are not well-defined. Therefore, the present study has been undertaken to determine the appropriateness of the various factors in predicting the existence and also the grade of esophageal varices. Patients with diagnosis of liver cirrhosis due to hepatitis C or B were included in a retrospective study between January 2001 and January 2010. All the patients underwent detailed clinical evaluation, appropriate investigations, imaging studies (ultrasound with Doppler) and endoscopy at our center. Five variables considered relevant to the presence and grade of varices were tested using univariate and multivariate analysis (logistic regression). Three hundred and seventy two patients with viral liver cirrhosis were included, with 192 (51.6%) males. Platelet count and abundance of ascites were significantly associated with the presence of esophageal varices. However, abundance of ascites, prothrombin time, diameter of the spleen and portal vein were significantly associated with a large varice. In multivariate analysis, platelet count inferior to 100000 was associated with presence of varices (p = 0.04) and only abundance of ascites was associated with large varice. Low Platelet count (< or equal 100000) is associated with the presence of varices in viral cirrhotic patients and abundance of ascites is correlated with the presence of large varices.

Assessment of portal hypertension and high-risk oesophageal varices with liver and spleen three-dimensional multifrequency MR elastography in liver cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the value of the liver and spleen viscoelastic parameters at multifrequency MR elastography to determine the degree of portal hypertension and presence of high-risk oesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

From January to September 2012, 36 consecutive patients with cirrhosis evaluated for transplantation were prospectively included. All patients underwent hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurements and endoscopy to assess oesophageal varices. Multifrequency MR elastography was performed within the liver and spleen. The shear, storage and loss moduli were calculated and compared to the HVPG with Spearman coefficients and multiple regressions. Patients with and without severe portal hypertension and high-risk varices were compared with Mann-Whitney tests, logistic regression and ROC analysis.

RESULTS

The liver storage and loss moduli and the spleen shear, storage and loss moduli correlated with the HVPG. At multiple regression, only the liver and the spleen loss modulus correlated with the HVPG (r = 0.44, p = 0.017, and r = 0.57, p = 0.002, respectively). The spleen loss modulus was the best parameter for identifying patients with severe portal hypertension (p = 0.019, AUROC = 0.81) or high-risk varices (p = 0.042, AUROC = 0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

The spleen loss modulus appears to be the best parameter for identifying patients with severe portal hypertension or high-risk varices.

KEY POINTS

1. Noninvasive HVPG assessment can be performed with liver and spleen MR elastography 2. The spleen loss modulus enables the detection of high-risk oesophageal varices 3. The spleen loss modulus enables the detection of severe portal hypertension.

Multidetector CT oesophagography: an alternative screening method for endoscopic diagnosis of oesophageal varices and bleeding risk

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Variceal bleeding is a frequent and life-threatening complication of portal hypertension. The aim of this study was to evaluate multidetector computed tomographic (MDCT) oesophagography as an alternative to endoscopy for screening oesophageal varices (EVs) and predicting bleeding risk.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 137 cirrhotic patients underwent MDCT followed by endoscopy and EVs were graded independently. The screening ability of CT for EV was evaluated by comparing the grades of EV at CT and at endoscopy. Prediction of bleeding risk by CT was determined by correlating the CT variceal grades, diameters and palisade vein dilatation with the endoscopic red colour (RC) sign. Extra-oesophageal findings were assessed by CT. Patients' acceptance for both examinations were compared.

RESULTS

At endoscopy, 47 (34%) patients had grade 0 EV, 52 (38%) patients had grade 1 EV, 29 (21%) patients had grade 2 EV and nine (7%) patients had grade 3 EV. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy of CT oesophagography for defining EV in all grades were 99%, 98%, 99%, 98% and 99%, respectively. The MDCT variceal grades, diameters and palisade vein dilatation were correlated with the severity of the RC sign. Important extra-oesophageal findings were determined by CT only. The acceptance of patients for CT oesophagography was significantly more than that for endoscopy (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

MDCT is a reliable, preliminary or adjunctive method that can be used for routine screening for EVs and the prediction of variceal bleeding.

Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) for the non-invasive prediction of esophageal varices

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Variceal bleeding is a dramatic and common complication of cirrhosis, and, therefore, endoscopy is recommended for the screening of EV (esophageal varices) in every cirrhotic. This study evaluates the capacity of APRI (aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index) in non-invasively predicting EV.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study evaluated cirrhotics for their APRI value and the presence of EV, with a cutoff point of 1, 3; platelet count, spleen diameter, PC/SD (platelet count/ spleen diameter ratio), aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, Child-Pugh score and MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) score were also studied.

RESULTS

The study included 164 cirrhotics, 59.7% male, with a mean age of 56.7 years. APRI demonstrated a sensitivity of 64.7% (95% confidence interval-95%CI = 0.56-0.73), specificity of 72.7% (95%CI = 0.59-0.86), positive predictive value of 86.5% (95%CI = 0.79-0.94), negative predictive value of 43.2% (95%CI = 0.32-0.55). In the univariate analysis, platelet count, spleen diameter, Child and MELD scores, PC/SD and APRI were related to EV (p < 0.05). In the logistic regression, only platelet count and Child score were associated to EV (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

APRI is not an independent factor for the prediction of EV. Its sensitivity, specificity and predictive values are insufficient for the index to be used for the screening of EV in cirrhotics.

Value of baseline platelet count for prediction of complications in primary biliary cirrhosis patients treated with ursodeoxycholic acid

BACKGROUND

Decreased platelet count has been observed in various liver diseases, but its significance in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) remains unknown. The present study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the platelet count at diagnosis for PBC-related complications in patients newly diagnosed with PBC and treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA).

METHODS

Ninety-six PBC patients without complications treated with UDCA immediately after diagnosis were retrospectively reviewed. All hematologic and chemical parameters, Mayo risk score and PBC-related complications including upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage, presence of ascites, serum bilirubin concentration > 102.6 μmol/L and onset of hepatic encephalopathy were extracted. The associations between these parameters at diagnosis and complications were determined and the prognostic value of the platelet count was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis, Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard model with the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) calculated.

RESULTS

Patients with PBC-related complications had significantly decreased platelet count and serum bilirubin concentration, prolonged prothrombin time, and increased Mayo risk score compared to those without complications. A platelet count of ≤ 132.5 × 10(9)/L was associated with the occurrence of complications, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.64-0.85). The association remained even after adjustment for Mayo risk score (HR: 2.85; 95% CI: 1.46-5.54; p < 0.01), as shown in the Cox proportional hazard model.

CONCLUSIONS

Decreased platelet count is a predictive factor for PBC-related complications. A cut-off value of ≤ 132.5 × 10(9)/L is recommended for the baseline platelet count to predict complications in patients newly diagnosed with PBC and treated with UDCA.

Gamna-Gandy bodies of the spleen detected with susceptibility weighted imaging: maybe a new potential non-invasive marker of esophageal varices

Background/Objectives

Portal hypertension (PH) is a clinical sequelae of liver cirrhosis, and bleeding from esophageal varices (EV) is a serious complication of PH with significant morbidity and mortality. The aims of this study were to assess the ability of 2D multislice breath-hold susceptibility weighted imaging (SWI) to detect Gamna-Gandy bodies (GGBs) in the spleens of patients with PH and to evaluate the potential role of GGB number as a non-invasive marker of PH and EV.

Materials and Methods

T1-, T2- and T2^*- weighted imaging and SWI were performed on 135 patients with PH and on 37 control individuals. Platelet counts were collected from all PH patients. Two radiologists analyzed all magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, and measured the portal vein diameter, splenic index (SI), and platelet count/spleen diameter ratio. The numbers of patients with GGBs in the spleen were determined, and the numbers of GGB were counted in the four MRI sequences in GGB-positive patients. The portal vein diameter, SI, platelet count, and platelet count/spleen diameter ratio of control individuals were compared with those of GGB-negative and GGB-positive patients on SWI images. The correlations among GGB numbers, the portal vein diameter, the SI, the platelet count, and the platelet count/spleen diameter ratio were analyzed.

Results

The GGB detection rate and the detected GGB number by using SWI were significantly greater than those by using T1-, T2-, and T2*- weighted images. The number of GGBs in the SWI images correlated positively with the portal vein diameter and SI and correlated negatively with the platelet count and platelet count/spleen diameter ratio.

Conclusion

SWI provided more accurate information of GGBs in patients with PH. The number of GGB may be a non-invasive predictor of improving the selection for endoscopic screening of PH patients at risk of EV.

Elastography, spleen size, and platelet count identify portal hypertension in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Noninvasive methods are needed to identify clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and esophageal varices (EVs) in patients with compensated cirrhosis. We looked for markers of the presence of CSPH and EVs in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional study that included a training set of 117 patients with compensated cirrhosis, confirmed by histology, from a tertiary referral center. Spleen diameter was measured by ultrasound, and liver stiffness (LS) was measured by transient elastography; endoscopy was used as the standard for detection of EVs, and measurements of hepatic venous pressure gradient were used as the standard for identifying CSPH. We assessed the ability of platelet count, spleen diameter, LS, and combinations of these factors (ie, ratio of platelet count to spleen size, and LS × spleen size/platelet count [LSPS]) to identify patients with CSPH and EV. The analysis included 2 new statistical models: the PH risk score and the varices risk score. Results were validated using an independent series of 56 patients with compensated patients from another center.

RESULTS

LS was the best single noninvasive variable for identifying patients with CSPH (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.883; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.824-0.943; P < .0001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic value increased when LS was combined with platelet count and spleen size, either as LSPS (0.918; 95% CI, 0.872-0.965; P < .0001) or PH risk score (0.935; 95% CI, 0.893-0.977; P < .0001). More than 80% of patients were accurately classified using LSPS and PH risk score. Analyses of the varices risk score and LSPS were superior to all other noninvasive tests for identifying patients with EVs (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.909; 95% CI, 0.841-0.954 and 0.882; 95% CI, 0.810-0.935, respectively); they correctly classified 85% of patients in the training set and 75% in the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined data on LS, spleen diameter, and platelet count can be used to identify patients with compensated cirrhosis most likely to have CSPH and EV.

Thrombocytopenia represents a risk for deterioration of liver function after radiofrequency ablation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS

We evaluated changes in liver function parameters and risk factors for the deterioration of liver function 12 months after percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA) therapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

The subjects in this retrospective study comprised 102 patients with HCC who had undergone RFA therapy and exhibited no recurrence of HCC 12 months thereafter. Serial changes in serum total bilirubin and albumin, prothrombin time, and Child-Pugh score were evaluated before RFA and 3, 6, 9, and 12 months thereafter. Deterioration of liver function was defined when the Child-Pugh score increased by at least 2 at 12 months after RFA therapy. We determined the factors related to aggravation of liver function after RFA therapy.

RESULTS

Liver function had deteriorated 12 months after RFA in 29 patients (28.4%). Serum albumin levels decreased significantly from before (3.7±0.1 g/dL, mean±SD) to 12 months after RFA therapy (3.3±0.1 g/dL, P=0.002). The Child-Pugh score increased significantly during the same time period (from 6.1±0.2 to 7.2±0.3, P<0.001). Pre-RFA thrombocytopenia (≤100,000/mm(3)) was revealed as a significant risk factor for the deterioration of liver function after RFA. However, no patients had episodes of bleeding as a complication of RFA.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the liver-function parameters, serum albumin level was markedly decreased in HCC patients over the course of 24 months after RFA therapy. A pre-RFA thrombocytopenia represents a major risk factor for the deterioration of liver function.

Usefulness of Noninvasive Predictors of Oesophageal Varices in Black African Cirrhotic Patients in Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)

Aims. To determine the usefulness of platelet count (PC), spleen diameter (SD) and platelet count/spleen diameter ratio (PC/SD ratio) for the prediction of oesophageal varices (OV) and large OV in black African patients with cirrhosis in Côte d'Ivoire. Materials and Methods. Study was conducted in a training sample (111 patients) and in a validation sample (91 patients). Results. Factors predicting OV were sex: (OR = 0.08, P = 0.0003), PC (OR = 12.4, P = 0.0003), SD (OR = 1.04, P = 0.002) in the training sample. The AUROCs (±SE) of the model (cutoff ≥ 0.6), PC (cutoff < 110500), SD (cutoff > 140) and PC/SD ratio (cutoff ≤ 868) were, respectively; 0.879 ± 0.04, 0.768 ± 0.06, 0.679 ± 0.06, 0.793 ± 0.06. For the prediction of large OV, the model's AUROC (0.850 ± 0.05) was superior to that of PC (0.688 ± 0.06), SD (0.732 ± 0.05) and PC/SD ratio (0.752 ± 0.06). In the validation sample, with PC, PC/SD ratio and the model, upper digestive endoscopy could be obviated respectively in 45.1, 45.1, and 44% of cirrhotic patients. Prophylactic treatment with beta blockers could be started undoubtedly respectively in 36.3, 41.8 and 28.6% of them as having large OV. Conclusion. Non-invasive means could be used to monitor cirrhotic patients and consider treatment in African regions lacking endoscopic facilities.

A clinical predictor of varices and portal hypertensive gastropathy in patients with chronic liver disease

Background/Aims

The aim of this study was to identify the parameters that could noninvasively predict the presence of esophageal/gastric varices and portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG) in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD), and to determine the accuracy of those parameters.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 232 patients with CLD who underwent both upper endoscopy and liver CT within an interval of 3 months. The multidimensional index (M-Index) for spleen volume was obtained from the multiplication of splenic length, width, and thickness, as measured by computer tomography.

Results

The multivariate analysis revealed that platelet, albumin, and M-Index were independently associated with the presence of varices and PHG. We combined three independent parameters, and developed a varices and portal hypertensive gastropathy (VAP) scoring system (=[platelet count (/mm³)×albumin (g/dL)]/[M-Index (cm³)]). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the VAP score was 0.850 (95% confidence interval, 0.801-0.899). The VAP cut-off value of 861 had a sensitivity of 85.3%, a positive likelihood ratio of 3.17, and a negative predictive value of 86.4%. For predicting high-risk lesions for bleeding, with a cut-off value of 861 the sensitivity was 92.0%, the positive likelihood ratio was 2.20, and the negative predictive value was 96.4%.

Conclusions

The VAP score can predict the presence of varices and PHG in patients with CLD and may increase the cost-benefit of screening endoscopy in the clinical practice setting. A prospective validation study is necessary in the future.

Platelet count/spleen diameter ratio for non-invasive diagnosis of oesophageal varices: is it useful in compensated cirrhosis?

AIM

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of the platelet count/spleen diameter ratio for identification of oesophageal varices and/or hypertensive gastropathy in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

Platelet count/spleen diameter ratio was calculated in 87 consecutive patients with compensated cirrhosis. A new cut-off with the highest sensitivity and specificity for the presence/absence of oesophageal varices and/or hypertensive gastropathy was identified. Performance of the platelet count/spleen diameter ratio considering previously reported cut-off values were then tested in our population.

RESULTS

A platelet count/spleen diameter ratio <936.4 had the best sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices and for all endoscopic findings of portal hypertension. A value lower than 936.4 allowed identification of 64.5% of patients with oesophageal varices and 66.7% of patients with any sign of portal hypertension; a value higher than 936.4 excluded oesophageal varices in 64.3% of patients and any sign of portal hypertension in 68.6% of patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with compensated cirrhosis, the platelet count/spleen diameter ratio is not a useful parameter to avoid unnecessary upper endoscopy, independently of the cut-off.

Can we consider the right hepatic lobe size/albumin ratio a noninvasive predictor of oesophageal varices in hepatitis C virus-related liver cirrhotic Egyptian patients?

BACKGROUND

The current guidelines recommend the screening of all cirrhotic patients by endoscopy, but repeated endoscopic examinations are unpleasant for patients and have a high cost impact and burden on endoscopic units. The aim of this study is to evaluate the optimal liver lobe size/albumin ratio and to compare this ratio with spleen size, platelet count and platelet count/spleen diameter ratio as potential noninvasive predictors of oesophageal varices in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related liver cirrhosis in Egyptian patients.

METHODS

This prospective study included one hundred patients with HCV-related liver cirrhosis. All studied subjects underwent a detailed clinical examination, biochemical workup, upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and abdominal ultrasound. The platelet count/spleen diameter ratio and the right liver lobe/albumin concentration ratio for all patients were calculated.

RESULTS

The 4 predictors demonstrated a high statistically significant correlation with the presence and grade of oesophageal varices (P values<0.001). The platelet count/spleen diameter ratio had the highest accuracy, followed by the right liver lobe/albumin concentration ratio, spleen size and then platelet count.

CONCLUSION

The use of the studied noninvasive predictors, especially the platelet count/spleen diameter ratio and the right liver lobe/albumin concentration ratio, can help physicians by restricting the use of endoscopic screening only to patients presenting a high probability of oesophageal varices. This is especially useful in clinical settings where resources are limited and endoscopic facilities are not present in all areas. Such is the case in Egypt, where there is a large number of patients who require oesophageal screening for oesophageal varices.

A clinical prediction rule and platelet count predict esophageal varices in children

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The validation of noninvasive tests to diagnose esophageal varices is a priority in children because repeated endoscopic evaluations are too invasive. We measured the ability of a previously developed noninvasive clinical prediction rule (CPR) to predict the presence of esophageal varices in children.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 108 children, younger than age 18, who received endoscopies at 8 centers, to assess portal hypertension from chronic liver disease or portal vein obstruction. Blood test and abdominal ultrasound scan results were obtained within 4 months of endoscopy. Grading of varices identified by endoscopy was confirmed by independent blinded review. Spleen size, based on data from the ultrasound scan, was expressed as a standard deviation score relative to normal values for age.

RESULTS

Of the children studied, 74 had esophageal varices (69%), including 35 with large varices (32%). The best noninvasive predictors of esophageal varices of any size were as follows: platelet:spleen size z-score ratio (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.93), CPR (AUROC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.70-0.91), and platelet count (AUROC, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.69-0.90). The positive predictive values for the CPR and platelet count were 0.87 and 0.86, the negative predictive values were 0.64 and 0.63, the positive likelihood ratios were 3.06 and 2.76, and the negative likelihood ratios were 0.64 and 0.63, respectively. Based on positive and negative predictive values, the most accurate noninvasive tests were the CPR and platelet counts.

CONCLUSIONS

Noninvasive tests such as CPR and platelet count can assist in triaging children for endoscopy to identify esophageal varices.

Platelet count/spleen diameter ratio: analysis of its capacity as a predictor of the existence of esophageal varices

CONTEXT

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding associated to esophageal varices is the most dramatic complication of cirrhosis. It is recommended screening every cirrhotic for esophageal varices with endoscopy.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the capacity of the platelet count/spleen diameter ratio in non-invasively predicting esophageal varices in a population of cirrhotics originated in an independent center from the one in which it was developed.

METHODS

The study included patients from the ambulatory care clinic of cirrhosis of a Brazilian hospital and studied platelet count, spleen diameter and presence of esophageal varices, as well as Child and MELD scores. It used a cutoff value of 909 for the platelet count/spleen diameter ratio, as previously published. A sample of 139 patients was needed to grant results a 95% confidence level.

RESULTS

The study included 164 cirrhotics, 56.7% male, with a mean age of 56.6 ± 11.6 years. In the univariate analysis, platelet count, spleen diameter, presence of ascites, Child and MELD scores and the platelet count/spleen diameter ratio were related to esophageal varices (P<0.05). The platelet count/spleen diameter ratio had sensitivity of 77.5% (95% CI = 0.700-0.850), specificity of 45.5% (95% CI = 0.307-0.602), positive predictive value of 79.5% (95% CI = 0.722-0.868), negative predictive value of 42.6% (95% CI = 0.284-0.567) and accuracy of 68.9% (95% CI = 0.618-0.760). In the multivariate analysis, platelet count was the only variable which related to esophageal varices (P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Platelet count/ spleen diameter ratio is not adequate to predict esophageal varices in cirrhotics.