When behavioural science can make a difference in times of COVID-19

Risk attitude and belief updating: theory and experiment

Despite the importance of risk attitude in decision-making, its role in belief updating has been overlooked. Using economic theory, we analyzed a dual-self equilibrium where an individual first updates her belief about an uncertain state and then takes an action to maximize her payoff. We showed that stronger risk aversion drives more conservative actions and thus decreases the instrumental value of information relative to the importance of belief-based utility. As a result, the relationship between risk attitude and belief updating depends on the nature of the belief-based utility. With self-relevant information, stronger risk aversion leads to more belief change, whereas with self-irrelevant information, stronger risk aversion leads to less belief change. Our experimental results concur with the theoretical predictions with two settings where subjects update their belief about their IQ and a randomly drawn number, respectively. We discuss implications on persuasion, advertisements, and political campaigns.

When norms collide: The effect of religious holidays on compliance with COVID guidelines

Aim

This paper investigates the effect of a religious holiday (Eid-ul-Fitr in Pakistan) on compliance behaviour instituted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Longstanding religion-based norms of behaviour during the Eid holidays (traveling to meet family members, praying in large gatherings, hugging) may counteract newly established (and weaker) norms of health-preserving behaviours.

Method

We study the impact of Eid-ul-Fitr on compliance with COVID guidelines for a sample of university students. Our effects are identified by unprompted delays in fielding a survey measuring compliance with prescribed behaviours.

Results

We find that compliance with guidelines declines immediately after the religious holiday in our sample of students, with no observable decline in other well documented predictors of compliance behaviour (risk perceptions, trust in the authorities). We find that this decline in compliance is largely attributable to male participants, with one important exception. We further confirm our results by conducting robustness checks incorporating matching techniques and a smaller follow-up study where we randomize invitations to the survey.

Conclusion

We conclude that amid the pandemic, newly formed norms pertaining to healthcare guidelines (focusing on social-distancing) emerged, and were subsequently undercut by longstanding norms of behaviour following a religious celebration: Eid-ul-Fitr. This paper underscores the fragility of these newly emerged norms, especially when challenged by a more well-entrenched, traditional norm.

The impact of government actions and risk perception on the promotion of self-protective behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic

INTRODUCTION

We aim to understand the factors that drive citizens of different countries to adhere to recommended self-protective behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Survey data was obtained through the COVID-19 Impact project. We selected countries that presented a sufficiently complete time series and a statistically relevant sample for running the analysis: Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Latvia, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. To identify country-specific differences in self-protective behaviors, we used previous evidence and change-point detection analysis to establish variations across participating countries whose effect was then assessed by means of interrupted series analysis.

RESULTS

A high level of compliance with health and governmental authorities' recommendations were generally observed in all included countries. The level of stress decreased near the period when countries such as Cyprus, Greece or the United Kingdom relaxed their prevention behavior recommendations. However, this relaxation of behaviors did not occur in countries such as Germany, Ireland, or the United States. As observed in the change-point detection analysis, when the daily number of recorded COVID-19 cases decreased, people relaxed their protective behaviors (Cyprus, Greece, Ireland), although the opposite trend was observed in Switzerland.

DISCUSSION

COVID-19 self-protective behaviors were heterogeneous across countries examined. Our findings show that there is probably no single winning strategy for exiting future health crises, as similar interventions, aimed to promote self-protective behaviors, may be received differently depending on the specific population groups and on the particular geographical context in which they are implemented.

The Life with Corona survey

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis affecting everyone. Yet, its challenges and countermeasures vary significantly over time and space. Individual experiences of the pandemic are highly heterogeneous and its impacts span and interlink multiple dimensions, such as health, economic, social and political impacts. Therefore, there is a need to disaggregate "the pandemic": analysing experiences, behaviours and impacts at the micro level and from multiple disciplinary perspectives. Such analyses require multi-topic pan-national survey data that are collected continuously and can be matched with other datasets, such as disease statistics or information on countermeasures. To this end, we introduce a new dataset that matches these desirable properties - the Life with Corona (LwC) survey - and perform illustrative analyses to show the importance of such micro data to understand how the pandemic and its countermeasures shape lives and societies over time.

Adding a reaction-restoration type transmission rate dynamic-law to the basic SEIR COVID-19 model

The classical SEIR model, being an autonomous system of differential equations, has important limitations when representing a pandemic situation. Particularly, the geometric unimodal shape of the epidemic curve is not what is generally observed. This work introduces the βSEIR model, which adds to the classical SEIR model a differential law to model the variation in the transmission rate. It considers two opposite thrives generally found in a population: first, reaction to disease presence that may be linked to mitigation strategies, which tends to decrease transmission, and second, the urge to return to normal conditions that pulls to restore the initial value of the transmission rate. Our results open a wide spectrum of dynamic variabilities in the curve of new infected, which are justified by reaction and restoration thrives that affect disease transmission over time. Some of these dynamics have been observed in the existing COVID-19 disease data. In particular and to further exemplify the potential of the model proposed in this article, we show its capability of capturing the evolution of the number of new confirmed cases of Chile and Italy for several months after epidemic onset, while incorporating a reaction to disease presence with decreasing adherence to mitigation strategies, as well as a seasonal effect on the restoration of the initial transmissibility conditions.

Exploring the need for external input through the prism of social, material and sensation seeking input

External input is any kind of physical stimulation created by an individual's surroundings that can be detected by the senses. The present research established a novel conceptualization of this construct by investigating it in relation to the needs for material, social and sensation seeking input, and by testing whether these needs predict psychological functioning during long- and short-term input deprivation. It was established that the three needs constitute different dimensions of an overarching construct (i.e. need for external input). The research also suggested that the needs for social and sensation seeking input are negatively linked to people's experiences of long-term input deprivation (i.e. COVID-19 restrictions), and that the need for material input may negatively predict the experiences of short-term input deprivation (i.e. sitting in a chair without doing anything else but thinking). Overall, this research indicates that the needs for social, material and sensation seeking input may have fundamental implications for experiences and actions in a range of different contexts.

Exploring the need for external input through the prism of social, material and sensation seeking input

External input is any kind of physical stimulation created by an individual's surroundings that can be detected by the senses. The present research established a novel conceptualization of this construct by investigating it in relation to the needs for material, social and sensation seeking input, and by testing whether these needs predict psychological functioning during long- and short-term input deprivation. It was established that the three needs constitute different dimensions of an overarching construct (i.e. need for external input). The research also suggested that the needs for social and sensation seeking input are negatively linked to people's experiences of long-term input deprivation (i.e. COVID-19 restrictions), and that the need for material input may negatively predict the experiences of short-term input deprivation (i.e. sitting in a chair without doing anything else but thinking). Overall, this research indicates that the needs for social, material and sensation seeking input may have fundamental implications for experiences and actions in a range of different contexts.

Public Reaction towards the Potential Side Effects of a COVID-19 Vaccine: An Italian Cross-Sectional Study

In March 2021, the possible link between the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine and some cases of blood clots lead several governments to suspend the administration of said vaccine, or to adjust their administration strategies, regardless of the fact that both EMA and WHO claimed the benefits of the vaccine to far outweigh its risks. The lack of a coordinated decision-making process between different health authorities possibly had an impact on people’s trust in the health authorities themselves, and on their willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19. In this study, we assessed the impact of the Astrazeneca case on a sample of 1000 Italian participants. The results demonstrate that a large part of the population is willing to delay the vaccination to be granted a vaccine perceived as “better”. We also assessed the importance of several socio-demographic and psychological factors in predicting hesitancy and discuss the implications for public communication strategies.

Building Resilient Health Systems Intelligence: Adapting Indicators of Compromise for the Cyber-Bionexus

The health sector is an underutilized source of actionable health intelligence for responding to threats across the "cyber-bionexus," defined as the convergence of threats from the biological and cybersecurity domains to produce harms with widespread societal consequences. The escalation of concerns about such threats-related to misinformation and disinformation; chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear events; cyberattacks; natural disease outbreaks; and disasters of various kinds-places health system concerns squarely at the forefront of national critical systems and broader security imperatives. Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the dearth of systems available for generating real-time intelligence in relation to critical functions of health sector operations amidst an unfolding crisis. Drawing on principles from the field of cyberthreat intelligence, and building on existing scholarship in health security intelligence, we propose a model for applying health system indicators of compromise for cyberbio events. We further discuss the relevance of this approach within the broader landscape of the cyber-bionexus to signal new pathways for research, practice, and policy engagement.

Can nudges save lives?

To assess the promotion of life saving behaviors and determine the sustainability of nudge message effects, this paper examines nudges that promote evacuation during heavy rainfall, preventative COVID-19 infection behaviors, and COVID-19 vaccination. The results showed that altruistic gain messages may have more sustained effects than others in promoting both evacuation during heavy rainfall and contact reduction behaviors as a measure against COVID-19 infection. Specifically, social influence nudges that use a gain frame to convey that a person's behavior promotes the behavior of others are effective for both heavy rainfall evacuations and encouraging COVID-19 vaccination.

Prosocial behavior of wearing a mask during an epidemic: an evolutionary explanation

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, with limited or no supplies of vaccines and treatments, people and policymakers seek easy to implement and cost-effective alternatives to combat the spread of infection during the pandemic. The practice of wearing a mask, which requires change in people's usual behavior, may reduce disease transmission by preventing the virus spread from infectious to susceptible individuals. Wearing a mask may result in a public good game structure, where an individual does not want to wear a mask but desires that others wear it. This study develops and analyzes a new intervention game model that combines the mathematical models of epidemiology with evolutionary game theory. This approach quantifies how people use mask-wearing and related protecting behaviors that directly benefit the wearer and bring some advantage to other people during an epidemic. At each time-step, a suspected susceptible individual decides whether to wear a facemask, or not, due to a social learning process that accounts for the risk of infection and mask cost. Numerical results reveal a diverse and rich social dilemma structure that is hidden behind this mask-wearing dilemma. Our results highlight the sociological dimension of mask-wearing policy.

Effective but fragile? Responses to repeated nudge-based messages for preventing the spread of COVID-19 infection

Nudge-based messages have been employed in various countries to encourage voluntary contact-avoidance and infection-prevention behaviors to control the spread of COVID-19. People have been repeatedly exposed to such messages; however, whether the messages keep exerting a significant impact over time remains unclear. From April to August 2020, we conducted a four-wave online survey experiment to examine how five types of nudge-based messages influence Japanese people's self-reported preventive behaviors. In particular, we investigate how their behaviors are affected by repeated displays over time. The analysis with 4241 participants finds that only a gain-framed altruistic message, emphasizing their behavioral adherence would protect the lives of people close to them, reduces their frequency of going out and contacting others. We do not find similar behavioral changes in messages that contain an altruistic element but emphasize it in a loss-frame or describe their behavioral adherence as protecting both one's own and others' lives. Furthermore, the behavioral change effect of the gain-framed altruistic message disappears in the third and fourth waves, although its impact of reinforcing intentions remains. This message has even an adverse effect of worsening the compliance level of infection-prevention behaviors for the subgroup who went out less frequently before the experiment. The study's results imply that when using nudge-based messages as a countermeasure for COVID-19, policymakers and practitioners need to carefully scrutinize the message elements and wording and examine to whom and how the messages should be delivered while considering their potential adverse and side effects.

Reporting on one's behavior: a survey experiment on the nonvalidity of self-reported COVID-19 hygiene-relevant routine behaviors

Surveys based on self-reported hygiene-relevant routine behaviors have played a crucial role in policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, using anchoring to test validity in a randomized controlled survey experiment during the COVID-19 pandemic, we demonstrate that asking people to self-report on the frequency of routine behaviors are prone to significant measurement error and systematic bias. Specifically, we find that participants across age, gender, and political allegiance report higher (lower) frequencies of COVID-19-relevant behaviors when provided with a higher (lower) anchor. The results confirm that such self-reports should not be regarded as behavioral data and should primarily be used to inform policy decisions if better alternatives are not available. To this end, we discuss the use of anchoring as a validity test relative to self-reported behaviors as well as viable alternatives to self-reports when seeking to behaviorally inform policy decisions.