Poxvirus Countermeasures During an Emergency in the United States

Comparative Pathology of Zoonotic Orthopoxviruses

This review provides a brief history of the impacts that a human-specific Orthopoxvirus (OPXV), Variola virus, had on mankind, recalls how critical vaccination was for the eradication of this disease, and discusses the consequences of discontinuing vaccination against OPXV. One of these consequences is the emergence of zoonotic OPXV diseases, including Monkeypox virus (MPXV). The focus of this manuscript is to compare pathology associated with zoonotic OPXV infection in veterinary species and in humans. Efficient recognition of poxvirus lesions and other, more subtle signs of disease in multiple species is critical to prevent further spread of poxvirus infections. Additionally included are a synopsis of the pathology observed in animal models of MPXV infection, the recent spread of MPXV among humans, and a discussion of the potential for this virus to persist in Europe and the Americas.

A Critical Analysis of the Scientific and Commercial Rationales for the De Novo Synthesis of Horsepox Virus

This article evaluates the scientific and commercial rationales for the synthesis of horsepox virus. I find that the claimed benefits of using horsepox virus as a smallpox vaccine rest on a weak scientific foundation and an even weaker business case that this project will lead to a licensed medical countermeasure. The combination of questionable benefits and known risks of this dual use research raises serious questions about the wisdom of undertaking research that could be used to recreate variola virus. This analysis also raises important questions about the propriety of a private company sponsoring such dual use research without appropriate oversight and highlights an important gap in United States dual use research regulations.

Estimating the Size of the U.S. Population at Risk of Severe Adverse Events from Replicating Smallpox Vaccine

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the population at risk of serious adverse reactions to replicating smallpox vaccine.

DESIGN AND SAMPLE

Conditions known or suspected to carry risk were identified via Centers for Disease Control and Prevention planning documents, other federal publications, and peer-reviewed literature. Conditions identified were categorized as historically recognized risks or more recently recognized immunocompromised states that may pose risk. Major historical risk factors were as follows: eczema/atopic dermatitis, pregnancy, HIV, and primary immunodeficiency. More recently identified states were as follows: rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, dialysis, bone marrow transplant recipients within 24 months post-transplant, solid-organ transplant recipients within 3 months post-transplant, age under 1 year, and systemic lupus erythematosus.

MEASURES

The estimated prevalence or absolute number of affected individuals for each condition was ascertained from peer-reviewed studies, vital statistics, and registry databases.

RESULTS

An estimated 48,121,280 to 50,028,045 individuals (15.2-15.8% of the U.S. population) are potentially contraindicated to replicating smallpox vaccine. This rises to 119,244,531 to 123,669,327 (37.4-38.8%) if household contacts are included.

CONCLUSIONS

These figures are significant and larger than the only previously published study. Understanding this number allows for improved clinical utilization, equitable attention to the health needs of a vulnerable population, and strategic vaccine stockpiling.