Recognizing flawed assumptions in suicide risk assessment research and clinical practice

Do people know how suicidal they will be? Understanding suicidal prospection

INTRODUCTION

Little research has been done on how people mentally simulate future suicidal thoughts and urges, a process we term suicidal prospection.

METHODS

Participants were 94 adults with recent suicidal thoughts. Participants completed a 42-day real-time monitoring study and then a follow-up survey 28 days later. Each night, participants provided predictions for the severity of their suicidal thoughts the next day and ratings of the severity of suicidal thoughts over the past day. We measured three aspects of suicidal prospection: predicted levels of desire to kill self, urge to kill self, and intent to kill self. We generated prediction errors by subtracting participants' predictions of the severity of their suicidal thoughts from their experienced severity.

RESULTS

Participants tended to overestimate (although the average magnitude was small and the modal error was zero) the severity of their future suicidal thoughts. The best fitting models suggested that participants used both their current suicidal thinking and previous predictions of their suicidal thinking to generate predictions of their future suicidal thinking. Finally, the average severity of predicted future suicidal thoughts predicted the number of days participants thought about suicide during the follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights prospection as a psychological process to better understand suicidal thoughts and behaviors.

Healthcare Utilization 12 Months Prior to Fatal and Non-fatal Suicidal Behaviour in Cape Town, South Africa

The purpose of this study was to characterize healthcare use for general care and mental health one year before suicidal behavior among individuals with fatal and non-fatal suicidal behavior (NFSB) in Cape Town, South Africa. We linked electronic health records of 484 participants from a case series of 93 completed suicides on whom forensic autopsies were performed at a mortuary in Cape Town, between August 2014 and January 2016; and 391 patients admitted to hospital following NFSB between June 2014 and March 2015, and between August 2015 and August 2017. Time from last healthcare visit to date of suicidal behavior (fatal or non-fatal) was calculated, and Kaplan Meier curves were used to compare the differences by psychiatric diagnoses and study group. Overall, 64.5% of completed suicides and 65.9% of NFSB patients sought general healthcare in the year before suicidal behavior. Most of these visits occurred at hospital outpatient clinics (40.8%) and primary healthcare facilities (31.3%). The prevalence of preexisting psychiatric diagnoses and the use of mental healthcare services was lower for individuals who completed suicide compared to NFSB patients. Common reasons for a healthcare visit among individuals who completed suicide were chronic disease and assault; and psychiatric illness (depression, bipolar, and/or substance use disorders), chronic disease and HIV among NFSB patients. A large proportion of individuals with fatal and NFSB interacted with the healthcare system before suicidal behavior. These findings suggest opportunities for suicide prevention at primary healthcare facilities, antiretroviral treatment centers and emergency departments.HIGHLIGHTSHealthcare access is common among individuals with fatal and NFSB in the year before suicidal behavior.The prevalence of mental disorder diagnoses is higher among NFSB patients than among individuals who completed suicide.A greater proportion of NFSB patients accessed mental healthcare services compared to individuals who completed suicide.

Talking really does matter: Lay perspectives from older people on talking about suicide in later life

Background

The cumulative body of research on suicidality in later life describes its unique and complex features in older people when compared with that in other population groups. Yet significant gaps exist in how research informs the further development of suitable interventions. The perspectives of older people are also limited in research findings.

Aims

Therefore, this exploratory study aimed to (1) identify potential barriers and enablers in discussing suicidal thoughts and their expression in later life from the perspectives of lay older people and (2) explore where opportunities might occur in approach, place, relationships, and language with older people to discuss suicidal thoughts and their expression.

Method

We conducted in-depth qualitative individual interviews with 15 people aged 70-89 years. This method helped explore older peoples' own lay perspectives on suicidal thoughts in later life and how these are expressed, and their understanding of where and how people might seek support.

Results

A total of three themes were generated from the dataset: (1) intergenerational and socio-cultural differences in suicide expression, (2) the normalization of suicidal thoughts in later life, and (3) the importance and difficulties of everyday discussion and opportunities to express suicidal thoughts.

Conclusion

Suicidal thoughts and their expression appear commonly and are normalized in later life yet remain taboo and hidden. The participants revealed how such thoughts and behaviors are typically expressed through colloquial or "off-hand" remarks and comments and the importance of authentic listening. The findings highlight the importance of more informal discussions around these topics and how care professionals, practitioners, and providers might frame opportunities for dialogue with people who may want to access support. Further engagement with community-informed participatory research methods in which older people provide their own perspectives and experiences is important in addressing these gaps. There is a need for co-designing in developing screening, assessment, and signposting outside of clinical settings that can be used in everyday caring relationships with people in later life.

Predicting suicide attempts among U.S. Army soldiers after leaving active duty using information available before leaving active duty: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS)

Suicide risk is elevated among military service members who recently transitioned to civilian life. Identifying high-risk service members before this transition could facilitate provision of targeted preventive interventions. We investigated the feasibility of doing this by attempting to develop a prediction model for self-reported suicide attempts (SAs) after leaving or being released from active duty in the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS). This study included two self-report panel surveys (LS1: 2016-2018, LS2: 2018-2019) administered to respondents who previously participated while on active duty in one of three Army STARRS 2011-2014 baseline self-report surveys. We focus on respondents who left active duty >12 months before their LS survey (n = 8899). An ensemble machine learning model using predictors available prior to leaving active duty was developed in a 70% training sample and validated in a 30% test sample. The 12-month self-reported SA prevalence (SE) was 1.0% (0.1). Test sample AUC (SE) was 0.74 (0.06). The 15% of respondents with highest predicted risk included nearly two-thirds of 12-month SAs and over 80% of medically serious 12-month SAs. These results show that it is possible to identify soldiers at high post-transition self-report SA risk before the transition. Future model development is needed to examine prediction of SAs assessed by administrative data and using surveys administered closer to the time of leaving active duty.