Latent class analysis of diagnostic tests for adenovirus, Bordetella pertussis and influenza virus infections in German adults with longer lasting coughs

Diagnostic test evaluation methodology: A systematic review of methods employed to evaluate diagnostic tests in the absence of gold standard - An update

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review methods developed and employed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of medical test when there is a missing or no gold standard.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTINGS

Articles that proposed or applied any methods to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of medical test(s) in the absence of gold standard were reviewed. The protocol for this review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42018089349).

RESULTS

Identified methods were classified into four main groups: methods employed when there is a missing gold standard; correction methods (which make adjustment for an imperfect reference standard with known diagnostic accuracy measures); methods employed to evaluate a medical test using multiple imperfect reference standards; and other methods, like agreement studies, and a mixed group of alternative study designs. Fifty-one statistical methods were identified from the review that were developed to evaluate medical test(s) when the true disease status of some participants is unverified with the gold standard. Seven correction methods were identified and four methods were identified to evaluate medical test(s) using multiple imperfect reference standards. Flow-diagrams were developed to guide the selection of appropriate methods.

CONCLUSION

Various methods have been proposed to evaluate medical test(s) in the absence of a gold standard for some or all participants in a diagnostic accuracy study. These methods depend on the availability of the gold standard, its' application to the participants in the study and the availability of alternative reference standard(s). The clinical application of some of these methods, especially methods developed when there is missing gold standard is however limited. This may be due to the complexity of these methods and/or a disconnection between the fields of expertise of those who develop (e.g. mathematicians) and those who employ the methods (e.g. clinical researchers). This review aims to help close this gap with our classification and guidance tools.

Evaluating latent tuberculosis infection diagnostics using latent class analysis

BACKGROUND

Lack of a gold standard for latent TB infection has precluded direct measurement of test characteristics of the tuberculin skin test and interferon-γ release assays (QuantiFERON Gold In-Tube and T-SPOT.TB).

OBJECTIVE

We estimated test sensitivity/specificity and latent TB infection prevalence in a prospective, US-based cohort of 10 740 participants at high risk for latent infection.

METHODS

Bayesian latent class analysis was used to estimate test sensitivity/specificity and latent TB infection prevalence among subgroups based on age, foreign birth outside the USA and HIV infection.

RESULTS

Latent TB infection prevalence varied from 4.0% among foreign-born, HIV-seronegative persons aged <5 years to 34.0% among foreign-born, HIV-seronegative persons aged ≥5 years. Test sensitivity ranged from 45.8% for the T-SPOT.TB among foreign-born, HIV-seropositive persons aged ≥5 years to 80.7% for the tuberculin skin test among foreign-born, HIV-seronegative persons aged ≥5 years. The skin test was less specific than either interferon-γ release assay, particularly among foreign-born populations (eg, the skin test had 70.0% specificity among foreign-born, HIV-seronegative persons aged ≥5 years vs 98.5% and 99.3% specificity for the QuantiFERON and T-SPOT.TB, respectively). The tuberculin skin test's positive predictive value ranged from 10.0% among foreign-born children aged <5 years to 69.2% among foreign-born, HIV-seropositive persons aged ≥5 years; the positive predictive values of the QuantiFERON (41.4%) and T-SPOT.TB (77.5%) were also low among US-born, HIV-seropositive persons aged ≥5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

These data reinforce guidelines preferring interferon-γ release assays for foreign-born populations and recommending against screening populations at low risk for latent TB infection.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01622140.

Long-lasting cough in an adult German population: incidence, symptoms, and related pathogens

Studies of the incidence of pertussis in adults have shown that it accounts for only 5–15% cases of prolonged coughing. We assessed the burden of suffering related to prolonged coughing and tried to identify further causative agents. Based on a sentinel study with 35 general practitioners in two German cities (Krefeld, Rostock), with 3,946 patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria, we estimated the incidence of prolonged coughing in adults. In 975 of these outpatients, PCR and/or serology for adenovirus, Bordetella pertussis and B. parapertussis, human metapneumovirus, influenza virus A and rhinovirus, parainfluenza virus, Mycoplasma pneumonia, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were performed. Treatment data were extracted for a subgroup of 138 patients. Descriptive statistics, including Kaplan–Maier curves were generated. Yearly incidence ranged between 1.4 and 2.1% per population in the two cities. Adult patients sought medical attention only after a median of 3 weeks of coughing. Irrespective of smoking and unrelated to the identified pathogens, the median duration of coughing was 6 weeks, with an interquartile range of 4–11 weeks. In 48.3% of patients, possible pathogens were identified, among which adenovirus (15.1%), RSV (7.5%), B. pertussis (5.6%), and influenza viruses (4.0%) were most often found. Symptoms were not indicative of a specific agent and a total of 64% of patients received antibiotics. Prolonged adult coughing requiring medical attention prompts substantial healthcare use. Apart from B. pertussis, a broad range of pathogens was associated with the symptoms. However, patients sought medical attention too late to guide efficacious therapeutic interventions using the diagnostic tests.