A Geographic Simulation Model for the Treatment of Trauma Patients in Disasters

Design and validation of a preparedness evaluation tool of pre-hospital emergency medical services for terrorist attacks: a mixed method study

INTRODUCTION

Terrorist attacks are one of the human problems that affect many countries, leaving behind a huge toll of disabilities and deaths. The aim of this study was to use a mixed-method analysis to design and validate an evaluation tool for pre-hospital emergency medical services for terrorist attacks.

METHODS

The present study is a mixed-method (qualitative and quantitative) study that was conducted in two phases. In the qualitative phase (item generation), semi-structured interviews were conducted with 34 Iranian emergency medical technicians who were selected through a purposive sampling method and a scoping literature review was conducted to generate an item pool for the preparedness evaluation of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) in terrorist attacks. In the quantitative phase (item reduction), for validity of tool face, content and construct validity, were performed; for tool reliability, the test and retest and intra-class correlation coefficient were evaluated.

RESULTS

At the first stage, 7 main categories and 16 subcategories were extracted from the data, the main categories including "Policy and Planning", "Education and Exercise "," Surge Capacity", "Safety and Security", "Command, Control and Coordination", "Information and Communication Management "and "Response Operations Management". The initial item pool included 160 items that were reduced to 110 after assessment of validity (face, content and construct). intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC = 0.71) examination and Pearson correlation test (r = 0.81) indicated that the tool was also reliable.

CONCLUSION

The research findings provide a new perspective to understand the preparedness of pre-hospital emergency medical services for terrorist attacks. The existing 110-item tool can evaluate preparedness of pre-hospital emergency medical services for terrorist attacks through collecting data with appropriate validity and reliability.

Defining Referral Regions for Inpatient Trauma Care: The Utility of a Novel Geographic Definition

INTRODUCTION

Geographic variation is an inherent feature of the US health system. Despite efforts to account for geographic variation in trauma system strengthening, it remains unclear how trauma "regions" should be defined. The objective of this study is to evaluate the utility of a novel definition of Trauma Referral Regions (TRR) for assessing geographic variation in inpatient trauma across the age span of hospitalized trauma patients.

METHODS

Using 2016-2017 State Inpatient Databases, we assessed the extent of geographic variability in three common metrics of hospital use (localization index, market share index, net patient flow) among TRRs and, as a comparison, trauma regions alternatively defined based on Hospital Referral Regions, Hospital Service Areas, and counties.

RESULTS

A total of 860,593 admissions from 102 TRRs, 127 Hospital Referral Regions, 884 Hospital Service Areas, and 583 counties were included. Consistent with expectations for distinct trauma regions, TRR presented with high average localization indices (mean [standard deviation]: 83.4 [11.7%]), low market share indices (mean [standard deviation]: 11.9 [7.0%]), and net patient flows close to 1.00. Similar results were found among stratified pediatric, adult, and older adult patients. Associations between TRRs and variations in important demographic features (e.g., travel time by road to the nearest Level I or II Trauma Center) suggest that while indicative of standalone trauma regions, TRRs are also able to simultaneously capture critical variations in regional trauma care.

CONCLUSIONS

TRRs offer a standalone set of geographic regions with minimal variation in common metrics of hospital use, minimal geographic clustering, and preserved associations with important demographic factors. They provide a needed, valid means of assessing geographic variation among trauma systems.

Developing Public Health Emergency Response Leaders in Incident Management: A Scoping Review of Educational Interventions

During emergency responses, public health leaders frequently serve in incident management roles that differ from their routine job functions. Leaders' familiarity with incident management principles and functions can influence response outcomes. Therefore, training and exercises in incident management are often required for public health leaders. To describe existing methods of incident management training and exercises in the literature, we queried 6 English language databases and found 786 relevant articles. Five themes emerged: (1) experiential learning as an established approach to foster engaging and interactive learning environments and optimize training design; (2) technology-aided decision support tools are increasingly common for crisis decision-making; (3) integration of leadership training in the education continuum is needed for developing public health response leaders; (4) equal emphasis on competency and character is needed for developing capable and adaptable leaders; and (5) consistent evaluation methodologies and metrics are needed to assess the effectiveness of educational interventions.These findings offer important strategic and practical considerations for improving the design and delivery of educational interventions to develop public health emergency response leaders. This review and ongoing real-world events could facilitate further exploration of current practices, emerging trends, and challenges for continuous improvements in developing public health emergency response leaders.

A Spatiotemporal Tool to Project Hospital Critical Care Capacity and Mortality From COVID-19 in US Counties

Objectives. To create a tool to rapidly determine where pandemic demand for critical care overwhelms county-level surge capacity and to compare public health and medical responses.Methods. In March 2020, COVID-19 cases requiring critical care were estimated using an adaptive metapopulation SEIR (susceptible‒exposed‒infectious‒recovered) model for all 3142 US counties for future 21-day and 42-day periods from April 2, 2020, to May 13, 2020, in 4 reactive patterns of contact reduction-0%, 20%, 30%, and 40%-and 4 surge response scenarios-very low, low, medium, and high.Results. In areas with increased demand, surge response measures could avert 104 120 additional deaths-55% through high clearance of critical care beds and 45% through measures such as greater ventilator access. The percentages of lives saved from high levels of contact reduction were 1.9 to 4.2 times greater than high levels of hospital surge response. Differences in projected versus actual COVID-19 demands were reasonably small over time.Conclusions. Nonpharmaceutical public health interventions had greater impact in minimizing preventable deaths during the pandemic than did hospital critical care surge response. Ready-to-go spatiotemporal supply and demand data visualization and analytics tools should be advanced for future preparedness and all-hazards disaster response.

Small Area Estimates of Populations With Chronic Conditions for Community Preparedness for Public Health Emergencies

Objectives. To demonstrate a flexible and practical method to obtain near real-time estimates of the number of at-risk community-dwelling adults with a chronic condition in a defined area potentially affected by a public health emergency.Methods. We used small area estimation with survey responses from the 2016 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System together with a geographic information system to predict the number of adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who lived in the forecasted path of Hurricane Florence in North and South Carolina in 2018.Results. We estimated that a range of 32 002 to 676 536 adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease resided between 50 and 200 miles of 3 consecutive daily forecasted landfalls. The number of affected counties ranged from 8 to 10 (at 50 miles) to as many as 119 to 127 (at 200 miles).Conclusions. Community preparedness is critical to anticipating, responding to, and ameliorating these health threats. We demonstrated the feasibility of quickly producing detailed estimates of the number of residents with chronic conditions who may face life-threatening situations because of a natural disaster. These methods are applicable to a range of planning and response scenarios.

A Geographic Simulation Model for the Treatment of Trauma Patients in Disasters

BACKGROUND

Though the US civilian trauma care system plays a critical role in disaster response, there is currently no systems-based strategy that enables hospital emergency management and local and regional emergency planners to quantify, and potentially prepare for, surges in trauma care demand that accompany mass-casualty disasters.

OBJECTIVE

A proof-of-concept model that estimates the geographic distributions of patients, trauma center resource usage, and mortality rates for varying disaster sizes, in and around the 25 largest US cities, is presented. The model was designed to be scalable, and its inputs can be modified depending on the planning assumptions of different locales and for different types of mass-casualty events.

METHODS

To demonstrate the model's potential application to real-life planning scenarios, sample disaster responses for 25 major US cities were investigated using a hybrid of geographic information systems and dynamic simulation-optimization. In each city, a simulated, fast-onset disaster epicenter, such as might occur with a bombing, was located randomly within one mile of its population center. Patients then were assigned and transported, in simulation, via the new model to Level 1, 2, and 3 trauma centers, in and around each city, over a 48-hour period for disaster scenario sizes of 100, 500, 5000, and 10,000 casualties.

RESULTS

Across all 25 cities, total mean mortality rates ranged from 26.3% in the smallest disaster scenario to 41.9% in the largest. Out-of-hospital mortality rates increased (from 21.3% to 38.5%) while in-hospital mortality rates decreased (from 5.0% to 3.4%) as disaster scenario sizes increased. The mean number of trauma centers involved ranged from 3.0 in the smallest disaster scenario to 63.4 in the largest. Cities that were less geographically isolated with more concentrated trauma centers in their surrounding regions had lower total and out-of-hospital mortality rates. The nine US cities listed as being the most likely targets of terrorist attacks involved, on average, more trauma centers and had lower mortality rates compared with the remaining 16 cities.

CONCLUSIONS

The disaster response simulation model discussed here may offer insights to emergency planners and health systems in more realistically planning for mass-casualty events. Longer wait and transport times needed to distribute high numbers of patients to distant trauma centers in fast-onset disasters may create predictable increases in mortality and trauma center resource consumption. The results of the modeled scenarios indicate the need for a systems-based approach to trauma care management during disasters, since the local trauma center network was often too small to provide adequate care for the projected patient surge. Simulation of out-of-hospital resources that might be called upon during disasters, as well as guidance in the appropriate execution of mutual aid agreements and prevention of over-response, could be of value to preparedness planners and emergency response leaders. Study assumptions and limitations are discussed. Carr BG , Walsh L , Williams JC , Pryor JP , Branas CC . A geographic simulation model for the treatment of trauma patients in disasters. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(4):413-421.