Source Contributions to Fine Particulate Matter and Attributable Mortality in India and the Surrounding Region

Continued Rise in Health Burden from Ambient PM2.5 in India under SSP Scenarios Until 2100 despite Decreasing Concentrations

Forecasting alterations in ambient air pollution and the consequent health implications is crucial for safeguarding public health, advancing environmental sustainability, informing economic decision making, and promoting appropriate policy and regulatory action. However, predicting such changes poses a substantial challenge, requiring accurate data, sophisticated modeling methodologies, and a meticulous evaluation of multiple drivers. In this study, we calculate premature deaths due to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure in India from the 2020s (2016-2020) to the 2100s (2095-2100) under four different socioeconomic and climate scenarios (SSPs) based on four CMIP6 models. PM2.5 concentrations decreased in all SSP scenarios except for SSP3-7.0, with the lowest concentration observed in SSP1-2.6. The results indicate an upward trend in the five-year average number of deaths across all scenarios, ranging from 1.01 million in the 2020s to 4.12-5.44 million in the 2100s. Further analysis revealed that the benefits of reducing PM2.5 concentrations under all scenarios are largely mitigated by population aging and growth. These findings underscore the importance of proactive measures and an integrated approach in India to improve atmospheric quality and reduce vulnerability to aging under changing climate conditions.

A district-level emission inventory of anthropogenic PM2.5 from the primary sources over the Indian Indo Gangetic Plain: Identification of the emission hotspots

A district-wise emission inventory was made for the states and union territories (UTs) of the Indian Indo-Gangetic Plain for the base year of 2018 to estimate the emissions of PM2.5 from various sectors. In addition to conventional sectors, emissions from road dust, fossil-fuelled irrigation pumps, and construction dust were also taken into account. Total primary anthropogenic PM2.5 emission was estimated to be 3157.3 Gg (or kilo-tones) for the year 2018 of which 32 % originated from the industrial sector, 27 % from domestic fuel consumption, 23 % from open burning, 14 % from road dust, 2 % from vehicular and 2 % from various unorganized sectors. The highest emissions were observed during the premonsoon (1013 Gg/year) followed by postmonsoon (802Gg/year), winter (788 Gg/year), and lowest during the monsoon (554Gg/year). Among the states and UTs, Uttar Pradesh contributes the most in total emissions (39 %), followed by Punjab (19 %), Bihar (17 %), West Bengal (13 %), Haryana (11 %), Delhi (0.9 %) and Chandigarh (0.1 %). Emission for per capita and for billion-rupee of state gross domestic product (GDP) were the highest for Punjab and Haryana. Results have identified the districts of Punjab (Firozpur, Ludhiana, Jalandhar), scattered pockets of Uttar Pradesh (Sonbhadra, Agra, Varanasi, Kanpur, Lucknow, Prayagraj) and lower Gangetic delta (Gaya, Muzaffarpur, Burdwan, both 24-parganas and Murshidabad) as potent hotspots of cumulative PM2.5 emissions. On the other hand, the districts of Punjab (Faridkot, Mansa, Muktsar, Fatehgarh) were found to be the hotspots for per capita emissions. High emissions were observed from the domestic sector, brick kilns, and micro and small-scale industries, and regulating norms should be more stringent for these sectors. Such a study will be a value add for the policymakers and health experts to assess emission hot spots, pollution simulation, and associated mortality analysis of the region.