Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Canadian Oil Sands Products: Implications for U.S. Petroleum Fuels

Aircraft and satellite observations reveal historical gap between top-down and bottom-up CO2 emissions from Canadian oil sands

Measurement-based estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from complex industrial operations are challenging to obtain, but serve as an important, independent check on inventory-reported emissions. Such top-down estimates, while important for oil and gas (O&G) emissions globally, are particularly relevant for Canadian oil sands (OS) operations, which represent the largest O&G contributor to national GHG emissions. We present a multifaceted top-down approach for estimating CO₂ emissions that combines aircraft-measured CO₂/NO_x emission ratios (ERs) with inventory and satellite-derived NO_x emissions from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and TROPOspheric Ozone Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and apply it to the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in Alberta, Canada. Historical CO₂ emissions were reconstructed for the surface mining region, and average top-down estimates were found to be >65% higher than facility-reported, bottom-up estimates from 2005 to 2020. Higher top-down vs. bottom-up emissions estimates were also consistently obtained for individual surface mining and in situ extraction facilities, which represent a growing category of energy-intensive OS operations. Although the magnitudes of the measured discrepancies vary between facilities, they combine such that the observed reporting gap for total AOSR emissions is ≥(31 ± 8) Mt for each of the last 3 years (2018-2020). This potential underestimation is large and broadly highlights the importance of continued review and refinement of bottom-up estimation methodologies and inventories. The ER method herein offers a powerful approach for upscaling measured facility-level or regional fossil fuel CO₂ emissions by taking advantage of satellite remote sensing observations.

LCA model validation of SAGD facilities with real operation data as a collaborative example between model developers and industry

There has been a notable disagreement between life cycle GHG emission estimates reported by research communities and key energy sector stakeholders as many LCA models are not validated against real operation data. This is originated from lack of collaboration and knowledge exchange between model developers and company experts. We present a pragmatic procedure for engaging company experts to advance the assumptions, models, and information used in an open-source LCA simulator (OPGEE). Using real operation and local emission factor data, two oil sands SAGD fields GHG emissions are compared rigorously against the scope 1 and 2 reported emissions. By introducing consistent region-specific input data, system boundaries, and assumptions, OPGEE carbon intensity estimates are within 1%-5% of reported data by companies. The system boundary expansion (e.g., expanding from direct emissions to also include offsite emissions from natural gas co-production, diluent source emission) impacts the GHG intensities estimates for both fields.

Canadian Oil Sands Extraction and Upgrading: A Synthesis of the Data on Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Supply Costs

As Canadian crude bitumen production from oil sands has increased in recent decades, the nation’s oil and gas industry has become a significant contributor to national greenhouse gas emissions. Canada has developed carbon emission reduction targets to meet its Nationally Determined Contributions and Mid-Century Strategy goals. A detailed profile of energy consumption pathways in the oil sands industry is necessary to identify potential areas of improvement and to monitor progress toward meeting emissions reduction targets. Much of the existing literature for oil sands modeling provides input assumptions with different technological boundaries. For a set of oil sands extraction and upgrading technologies, this study first reviews the literature and then quantifies energy input requirements, CO2 emissions, and operating costs for a set of consistent technological boundaries and energy units. Summary results refer to requirements and costs at the production facility, excluding transportation and blending costs. An energy system diagram of oil sands production that matches these boundaries is provided, which can be used by integrated assessment models, oil sands companies, and government ministries to evaluate the present and future energy consumption and emissions pathways of the oil sands industry.

Measured Canadian oil sands CO2 emissions are higher than estimates made using internationally recommended methods

The oil and gas (O&G) sector represents a large source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. However, estimates of O&G emissions rely upon bottom-up approaches, and are rarely evaluated through atmospheric measurements. Here, we use aircraft measurements over the Canadian oil sands (OS) to derive the first top-down, measurement-based determination of the their annual CO₂ emissions and intensities. The results indicate that CO₂ emission intensities for OS facilities are 13-123% larger than those estimated using publically available data. This leads to 64% higher annual GHG emissions from surface mining operations, and 30% higher overall OS GHG emissions (17 Mt) compared to that reported by industry, despite emissions reporting which uses the most up to date and recommended bottom-up approaches. Given the similarity in bottom-up reporting methods across the entire O&G sector, these results suggest that O&G CO₂ emissions inventory data may be more uncertain than previously considered.

Evaluation of Variability in Greenhouse Gas Intensity of Canadian Oil Sands Surface Mining and Upgrading Operations

We present a statistically enhanced version of the GreenHouse gas emissions of current Oil Sands Technologies model that facilitates characterization of variability of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with mining and upgrading of bitumen from Canadian oil sands. Over 30 years of publicly available project-specific operating data are employed as inputs, enabling Monte Carlo simulation of individual projects and the entire industry, for individual years and project life cycles. We estimate that median lifetime GHG intensities range from 89 to 137 kg CO₂eq/bbl synthetic crude oil (SCO) for projects that employ upgrading. The only project producing dilbit that goes directly to a refinery has a median lifetime GHG intensity of 51 kg CO₂eq/bbl dilbit. As SCO and dilbit are distinct products with different downstream processing energy requirements, a life cycle assessment ("well to wheel") is needed to properly compare them. Projects do not reach steady-state in terms of median GHG intensity. Projects with broader distributions of annual GHG intensities and higher median values are linked to specific events (e.g., project expansions). An implication for policymakers is that no specific technology or operating factor can be directly linked to GHG intensity and no particular project or year of operation can be seen as representative of the industry or production technology.

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ∼450 gCO₂e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H₂ FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO₂e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ∼350 gCO₂/mi for ICEVs and ∼250 gCO_2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

Well-to-wake analysis of ethanol-to-jet and sugar-to-jet pathways

BACKGROUND

To reduce the environmental impacts of the aviation sector as air traffic grows steadily, the aviation industry has paid increasing attention to bio-based alternative jet fuels (AJFs), which may provide lower life-cycle petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than petroleum jet fuel. This study presents well-to-wake (WTWa) results for four emerging AJFs: ethanol-to-jet (ETJ) from corn and corn stover, and sugar-to-jet (STJ) from corn stover via both biological and catalytic conversion. For the ETJ pathways, two plant designs were examined: integrated (processing corn or corn stover as feedstock) and distributed (processing ethanol as feedstock). Also, three H₂ options for STJ via catalytic conversion are investigated: external H₂ from natural gas (NG) steam methane reforming (SMR), in situ H₂, and H₂ from biomass gasification.

RESULTS

Results demonstrate that the feedstock is a key factor in the WTWa GHG emissions of ETJ: corn- and corn stover-based ETJ are estimated to produce WTWa GHG emissions that are 16 and 73%, respectively, less than those of petroleum jet. As for the STJ pathways, this study shows that STJ via biological conversion could generate WTWa GHG emissions 59% below those of petroleum jet. STJ via catalytic conversion could reduce the WTWa GHG emissions by 28% with H₂ from NG SMR or 71% with H₂ from biomass gasification than those of petroleum jet. This study also examines the impacts of co-product handling methods, and shows that the WTWa GHG emissions of corn stover-based ETJ, when estimated with a displacement method, are lower by 11 g CO₂e/MJ than those estimated with an energy allocation method.

CONCLUSION

Corn- and corn stover-based ETJ as well as corn stover-based STJ show potentials to reduce WTWa GHG emissions compared to petroleum jet. Particularly, WTWa GHG emissions of STJ via catalytic conversion depend highly on the hydrogen source. On the other hand, ETJ offers unique opportunities to exploit extensive existing corn ethanol plants and infrastructure, and to provide a boost to staggering ethanol demand, which is largely being used as gasoline blendstock.

Life Cycle Analysis of Bitumen Transportation to Refineries by Rail and Pipeline

Crude oil is currently transported primarily by pipelines and rail from extraction sites to refineries around the world. This research evaluates energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for three scenarios (synthetic crude oil and dilbit with and without diluent return) in which 750 000 bpd of Alberta's bitumen is transported 3000 km to determine which method has a lower environmental impact. Each scenario has a pipeline and rail pathway, and the dilbit without diluent return scenario has an additional heated bitumen pathway, which does not require diluent. An Excel based bottom-up model is developed using engineering first-principles to calculate mass and energy balances for each process. Results show that pipeline transportation produced between 61% and 77% fewer GHG emissions than by rail. The GHG emissions decreased by 15% and 73% for rail and pipelines as the capacity increased from 100 000 to 800 000 bpd. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to determine the uncertainty in the emissions and found that the uncertainty was larger for pipelines (up to ±73%) and smaller for rail (up to ±28%). The uncertainty ranges do not overlap, thus confirming that pipelines have lower GHG emissions, which is important information for policy makers conducting pipeline reviews.

Development and Application of a Life Cycle-Based Model to Evaluate Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Oil Sands Upgrading Technologies

A life cycle-based model, OSTUM (Oil Sands Technologies for Upgrading Model), which evaluates the energy intensity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of current oil sands upgrading technologies, is developed. Upgrading converts oil sands bitumen into high quality synthetic crude oil (SCO), a refinery feedstock. OSTUM's novel attributes include the following: the breadth of technologies and upgrading operations options that can be analyzed, energy intensity and GHG emissions being estimated at the process unit level, it not being dependent on a proprietary process simulator, and use of publicly available data. OSTUM is applied to a hypothetical, but realistic, upgrading operation based on delayed coking, the most common upgrading technology, resulting in emissions of 328 kg CO₂e/m³ SCO. The primary contributor to upgrading emissions (45%) is the use of natural gas for hydrogen production through steam methane reforming, followed by the use of natural gas as fuel in the rest of the process units' heaters (39%). OSTUM's results are in agreement with those of a process simulation model developed by CanmetENERGY, other literature, and confidential data of a commercial upgrading operation. For the application of the model, emissions are found to be most sensitive to the amount of natural gas utilized as feedstock by the steam methane reformer. OSTUM is capable of evaluating the impact of different technologies, feedstock qualities, operating conditions, and fuel mixes on upgrading emissions, and its life cycle perspective allows easy incorporation of results into well-to-wheel analyses.

A geographical assessment of vegetation carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions on potential microalgae-based biofuel facilities in the United States

The microalgae biofuels life cycle assessments (LCA) present in the literature have excluded the effects of direct land use change (DLUC) from facility construction under the assumption that DLUC effects are negligible. This study seeks to model the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of microalgae biofuels including DLUC by quantifying the CO₂ equivalence of carbon released to the atmosphere through the construction of microalgae facilities. The locations and types of biomass and Soil Organic Carbon that are disturbed through microalgae cultivation facility construction are quantified using geographical models of microalgae productivity potential including consideration of land availability. The results of this study demonstrate that previous LCA of microalgae to biofuel processes have overestimated GHG benefits of microalgae-based biofuels production by failing to include the effect of DLUC. Previous estimations of microalgae biofuel production potential have correspondingly overestimated the volume of biofuels that can be produced in compliance with U.S. environmental goals.