Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector

Currently responsible for over one fifth of carbon emissions worldwide, the transportation sector will need to undergo a substantial technological transition to ensure compatibility with global climate goals. Few studies have modeled strategies to achieve zero emissions across all transportation modes, including aviation and shipping, alongside an integrated analysis of feedbacks on other sectors and environmental systems. Here, we use a global integrated assessment model to evaluate deep decarbonization scenarios for the transportation sector consistent with maintaining end-of-century warming below 1.5 °C, considering varied timelines for fossil fuel phase-out and implementation of advanced alternative technologies. We highlight the leading low carbon technologies for each transportation mode, finding that electrification contributes most to decarbonization across the sector. Biofuels and hydrogen are particularly important for aviation and shipping. Our most ambitious scenario eliminates transportation emissions by mid-century, contributing substantially to achieving climate targets but requiring rapid technological shifts with integrated impacts on fuel demands and availability and upstream energy transitions.

Revealing varying relationships between wastewater mercury emissions and economic growth in Chinese cities

Mercury emission from industrial wastewater has a great impact on the aquatic environment but is not well studied. Inventory analysis, decoupling and decomposition methods have been conducted based on the China Pollution Source Census dataset, which combines industry removal efficiencies to calculate mercury emissions from industrial wastewater in 340 cities in China during 2000-2010. The results show that over these 11 years, total mercury emissions and per capita mercury emissions increased by approximately 5 times, while the emission intensity increased by only about 3%. From 2000 to 2010, only 0.59% of cities showed strong decoupling between economic growth and mercury emissions, and 37.65% of cities showed weak decoupling, whereas 38.82% of cities showed negative decoupling. We attribute the decoupling of economic development and emissions in individual cities to several socioeconomic factors and find that a decline in emission intensity is the main driver. The Gini coefficient indicates a significant imbalance between cities' emissions, but this situation improved during 2000-2010. The objective of this article is to provide a historical perspective on the situation of mercury emissions from wastewater in China, thereby contributing' to the broader understanding of industrial pollution.

Water-saving co-benefits of CO2 reduction in China's electricity sector

Electricity sector is the largest CO₂ emitter and water user in China's industrial sectors. The low-carbon transition of China's electricity sector reduces its cooling water consumption. Here we firstly quantify CO₂ emission and virtual water embodied in electricity trade with Quasi-Input-Output model. Then, we analyze the impacts of energy substitution, efficiency improvement, and electricity trade on water-saving co-benefits of CO₂ reduction with the differences between the baseline scenario and counterfactual scenario. Results show that the low-carbon transition contributes to water-saving in China's electricity sector. Virtual water and embodied CO₂ have relatively decoupled from electricity trade since 2012. Water-saving (+10.4% yr^-1) outweighed CO₂ reduction (+8.4% yr^-1) through energy substitution and efficiency improvement in the 'new normal' stage. Our work emphasizes the need to integrate water-saving co-benefits of CO₂ reduction into electricity system planning and highlights the challenges to facilitate coordinated development of the electricity-water nexus in China.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Development of Electromobility in Poland. The Perspective of Companies in the Transport-Shipping-Logistics Sector: A Case Study

Negative processes occurring in the natural environment, under dynamic economy development, have become a factor for taking actions limiting destructive human activity. An important area in which initiatives are taken to improve the state of the natural environment is that of companies in the Transport-Shipping-Logistics Sector (TSL sector). The main objective of this article was to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of electromobility among companies in the Polish TSL sector, and identify factors that positively influenced or hindered its development during this time. For this purpose, qualitative and quantitative data analyses were carried out based on a literature review, statistical data, and direct research results. Descriptive statistics, chi-square test of concordance, and contingency coefficients were used to process the data. The results showed that the pandemic period did not affect the development of electromobility among TSL companies. Only a few companies own electric cars in Poland. Many of them did not plan to purchase this type of vehicle during the pandemic. The main factors influencing the decisions of entrepreneurs during the study period were the availability of charging infrastructure and electricity price uncertainty. The results of the study can be used by stakeholders of this sector in Poland.

Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.

How Will Digitalization Change Road Freight Transport? Scenarios Tested in Sweden

Road freight transport is a key function of modern societies. At the same time, road freight transport accounts for significant emissions. Digitalization, including automation, digitized information, and artificial intelligence, provide opportunities to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase service levels in road freight transport. Digitalization may also radically change the business ecosystem in the sector. In this paper, the question, “How will digitalization change the road freight transport landscape?” is addressed by developing four exploratory future scenarios, using Sweden as a case study. The results are based on input from 52 experts. For each of the four scenarios, the impacts on the road freight transport sector are investigated, and opportunities and barriers to achieving a sustainable transportation system in each of the scenarios are discussed. In all scenarios, an increase in vehicle kilometers traveled is predicted, and in three of the four scenarios, significant increases in recycling and urban freight flows are predicted. The scenario development process highlighted how there are important uncertainties in the development of the society that will be highly important for the development of the digitized freight transport landscape. One example is the sustainability paradigm, which was identified as a strategic uncertainty.

Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals

In the international community, there are many appeals to ratcheting up the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs), in order to narrow the 2030 global emissions gap with the Paris goals. Near-term mitigation has a direct impact on the required efforts beyond 2030 to control warming within 2°C or 1.5°C successfully. In this study, implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions until 2100 for aligning with the Paris goals, are quantified using a refined Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with six mitigation scenarios. Results show that intensifying near-term mitigation will alleviate China's transitional challenges during 2030-2050 and long-term reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies (CDR). Each five-year earlier peaking of CO₂ allows almost a five-year later carbon neutrality of China's energy system. To align with 2°C (1.5°C), peaking in 2025 instead of 2030 reduces the requirement of CDR over the century by 17% (13%). Intensifying near-term mitigation also tends to have economic benefits to China's Paris-aligned energy transitions. Under 2°C (1.5°C), peaking in 2025 instead of 2030, with larger near-term mitigation costs by 1.3 (1.6) times, has the potential to reduce China's aggregate mitigation costs throughout the century by 4% (6%). Although in what way China's NDC is to be updated is determined by decision-makers, transitional and economic benefits suggest China to try its best to pursue more ambitious near-term mitigation in accordance with its latest national circumstances and development needs.

Drivers toward a Low-Carbon Electricity System in China's Provinces

Decarbonization of the power sector is one of the most important efforts to meet the climate mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement. China's power sector is of global importance, accounting for ∼25% of global electricity production in 2015. The carbon intensity of China's electricity is still much higher than the global average, but the country has made important strides toward a low-carbon transition based on two main pillars: improvement of energy efficiency and decreasing the share of fossil fuels. By applying a decoupling indicator, our study shows that 21 provinces achieved a "relative decoupling" of carbon emissions and electricity production and the remaining nine provinces achieved "absolute decoupling" between 2005 and 2015. We updated China's emission factors based on the most recent data by also considering the quality of imported coal and compared our results with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change coefficients to show the sensitivity of results and the potential error. Our decomposition analysis shows that improvement of energy efficiency was the dominant driver for decarbonization of 16 provincial power sectors, while the access to low-carbon electricity and substitution of natural gas for coal and oil further accelerated their decarbonization.

Environmental impact of the on-road transportation distance and product volume from farm to a fresh food distribution center: a case study in Brazil

The pollutants' emissions from on-road transport are critical pressure on the climate change scenario, and most developing countries rely on mostly diesel transportation. The current study aimed to estimate the environmental impact of the distance from the agricultural production area of fresh food (papaya, potato, and tomato) to a fresh food distribution center located in Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil. The way the products were carried was assessed for calculating the total transported volume. The total amount carried was measured, considering the number of trips multiplied by the total distance traveled within a year of supply. An online calculator was used to evaluate the amount of CO₂ emission, and to allow the estimative of the amount of CO₂-eq, that is the Global Warming Impact (GWP) in 100 years. The highest CO₂ emission was identified in the potato transported from Paraná State to the distribution center, with a CO₂-eq emission of 3237 t/year (64% of contribution), followed by the papaya from Bahia State (2723 t/year, 42% of contribution), and the tomato from Sao Paulo State (625 t/year, 71% of contribution). However, when computing the GWP, the highest value was found in the transport of potato from the Minas Gerais State (8 × 10^-2 in 100 years) followed by the papaya from Rio Grande do Norte State (5 × 10^-2 in 100 years) and the papaya from Bahia (3 × 10^-2 in 100 years). The higher the amount of product transported by a trip, the smaller the environmental impact in the long run. A proper strategy to reduce the environmental impact would be to have large freight volume when transporting food from vast distances within continental countries.

Transportation Efficiency Evaluation Considering the Environmental Impact for China’s Freight Sector: A Parallel Data Envelopment Analysis

The freight sector is an important component of China’s national economy. It is composed of multiple sub-sectors and has a complex internal structure. This internal structure can hide information on the freight sector’s operational performance. Previous studies on transportation operational performance made measurements based on the whole transportation sector, and all of these studies ignored the impacts that the internal structure of the sub-sectors have on performance, which leaves a gap in the research. To illustrate this structure, this study proposes a parallel slacks-based measure model to measure transportation efficiency, which can represent the freight sector’s operational performance. The efficiencies of transportation operations for the whole freight sector and its three sub-sectors are further measured, by treating the sub-sectors as parallel subunits. Then, the inefficiency sources from the sub-sectors can be identified by the proposed model. To detect the environmental impact on transportation operations, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are also considered in the evaluation. On the basis of the proposed approach, an application of the Chinese freight sector from 2013 to 2017 is provided. The impacts of influential factors on transportation efficiency are also explored. The empirical findings can be illustrated as follows: (1) there exist significant disparities in regional transportation efficiencies in the freight sector and its sub-sectors; (2) the inefficient transportation performance of the Chinese freight sector mainly derives from the poor performance of the waterway sub-sector; and (3) freight volume and population density have positive impacts on the transportation efficiencies of the railway and highway sub-sectors. Finally, some policies for improving transportation efficiency are also provided.

The air quality and health impacts of projected long-haul truck and rail freight transportation in the United States in 2050

Diesel emissions from freight transportation activities are a key threat to public health. This study examined the air quality and public health impacts of projected freight-related emissions in 2050 over the continental United States. Three emission scenarios were considered: (1) a projected business-as-usual socioeconomic growth with freight fleet turnover and stringent emission control (CTR); (2) the application of a carbon pricing climate policy (PO); and (3) further technology improvements to eliminate high-emitting conditions in the truck fleet (NS). The PO and NS cases are superimposed on the CTR case. Using a WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ-BenMAP modeling framework, we quantified the impacts of diesel fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions change on air quality, health, and economic benefits. In the CTR case, we simulate a widespread reduction of PM_2.5 concentrations, between 0.5 and 1.5 μg m^-3, comparing to a base year of 2011. This translates into health benefits of 3600 (95% CI: 2400-4800) prevented premature deaths, corresponding to $38 (95% CI: $3.5-$100) billion. Compared to CTR case, the PO case can obtain ~9% more health benefits nationally, however, climate policy also affects the health outcomes regionally due to transition of demand from truck to rail; regions with fewer trucks could gain in health benefits, while regions with added rail freight may potentially experience a loss in health benefits due to air quality degradation. The NS case provides substantial additional benefits (~20%). These results support that a combination of continuous adoption of stringent emission standards and strong improvements in vehicle technology are necessary, as well as rewarding, to meet the sustainable freight and community health goals. States and metropolitan areas with high population density and usually high freight demand and emissions can take more immediate actions, such as accelerating vehicle technology improvements and removing high-emitting trucks, to improve air quality and health benefits.

Net-zero emissions energy systems

Some energy services and industrial processes-such as long-distance freight transport, air travel, highly reliable electricity, and steel and cement manufacturing-are particularly difficult to provide without adding carbon dioxide (CO₂) to the atmosphere. Rapidly growing demand for these services, combined with long lead times for technology development and long lifetimes of energy infrastructure, make decarbonization of these services both essential and urgent. We examine barriers and opportunities associated with these difficult-to-decarbonize services and processes, including possible technological solutions and research and development priorities. A range of existing technologies could meet future demands for these services and processes without net addition of CO₂ to the atmosphere, but their use may depend on a combination of cost reductions via research and innovation, as well as coordinated deployment and integration of operations across currently discrete energy industries.