Novel Method of Sensitivity Analysis Improves the Prioritization of Research in Anticipatory Life Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies

A critical review of the circular economy for lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaic modules - status, challenges, and opportunities

To meet net-zero emissions and cost targets for power production, recent analysis indicates that photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the United States could exceed 1 TW by 2050 alongside comparable levels of energy storage capacity, mostly from batteries. For comparison, the total U.S. utility-scale power capacity from all energy sources in 2020 was 1.2 TW, of which solar satisfied approximately 3%. With such massive scales of deployment, questions have arisen regarding issues of material supply for manufacturing, end-of-life management of technologies, environmental impacts across the life cycle, and economic costs to both individual consumers and society at large. A set of solutions to address these issues center on the development of a circular economy - shifting from a take-make-waste linear economic model to one that retains the value of materials and products as long as possible, recovering materials at end of life to recirculate back into the economy. With limited global experience, scholars and practitioners have begun to investigate circular economy pathways, focusing on applying novel technologies and analytical methods to fast-growing sectors like renewable energy. This critical review aims to synthesize the growing literature to identify key insights, gaps, and opportunities for research and implementation of a circular economy for two of the leading technologies that enable the transition to a renewable energy economy: solar PV and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). We apply state-of-the-science systematic literature review procedures to critically analyze over 3,000 publications on the circular economy of solar PV and LIBs, categorizing those that pass a series of objective screens in ways that can illuminate the current state of the art, highlight existing impediments to a circular economy, and recommend future technological and analytical research. We conclude that while neither PV nor LIB industries have reached a circular economy, they are both on a path towards increased circularity. Based on our assessment of the state of current literature and scientific understanding, we recommend research move beyond its prior emphasis on recycling technology development to more comprehensively investigate other CE strategies, more holistically consider economic, environmental and policy aspects of CE strategies, increase leveraging of digital information systems that can support acceleration towards a CE, and to continue to study CE-related aspects of LIB and PV markets.

Assessing the Relative Climate Impact of Carbon Utilization for Concrete, Chemical, and Mineral Production

Estimates show that 6.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) can be captured and utilized across three pathways, concrete, chemical, and minerals, by 2050. However, it is difficult to compare the climate benefit across these three carbon capture and utilization (CCU) pathways to determine the most effective use of captured CO₂. The life cycle assessment methods to evaluate the climate benefit of CCU chemicals should additionally account for the change in material properties of concrete due to CO₂ utilization. Furthermore, with most CO₂ utilization technologies being in the early stages of research and development, the uncertainty and variability in process and inventory data present a significant challenge in evaluating the climate benefit. We present a stochastically determined climate return on investment (ROI) metric to rank and prioritize CO₂ utilization across 20 concrete, chemical and mineral pathways based on the realized climate benefit. We show that two concrete pathways, which use CO₂ during concrete mixing, and two chemical pathways, which produce formic acid through hydrogenation of CO₂ and carbon monoxide through dry reforming of methane, generate the greatest climate ROI and are the only CCU pathways with a higher likelihood of generating a climate benefit than a climate burden.

How Far Can Life Cycle Assessment Be Simplified? A Protocol to Generate Simple and Accurate Models for the Assessment of Energy Systems and Its Application to Heat Production from Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Life cycle assessments (LCAs) quantify environmental impacts of systems and support decision-making processes. LCAs are however time-consuming and difficult to conduct for nonexperts, thus calling for simplified approaches for multicriteria environmental assessments. In this paper, a five-step protocol is presented to generate simplified arithmetic equations from a reference parametrized LCA model of an energy system and its application illustrated for an enhanced geothermal system for heat generation with very low direct emissions in continental Europe. The simplified models estimate seven environmental impacts (climate change, freshwater ecotoxicity, human health, minerals and metals, and fossil resources depletion, and acidification) based on six technological parameters: number of injection and production wells, power of the production and injection pump, average well length, thermal power output, and eight background parameters defining the European electricity mix. A global sensitivity analysis identified these parameters as influencing the variance of the environmental impacts the most. Ensuring the representativeness of the reference LCA model and the validity of the simplified models requires thorough assessment. This protocol allows to develop relevant alternatives to detailed LCAs for quick and multicriteria environmental impact assessments of energy systems, showing that LCAs can be simplified to system-specific equations based on few, easily quantified, parameters.

Carbon dioxide utilization in concrete curing or mixing might not produce a net climate benefit

Carbon capture and utilization for concrete production (CCU concrete) is estimated to sequester 0.1 to 1.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) by 2050. However, existing estimates do not account for the CO2 impact from the capture, transport and utilization of CO2, change in compressive strength in CCU concrete and uncertainty and variability in CCU concrete production processes. By accounting for these factors, we determine the net CO2 benefit when CCU concrete produced from CO2 curing and mixing substitutes for conventional concrete. The results demonstrate a higher likelihood of the net CO2 benefit of CCU concrete being negative i.e. there is a net increase in CO2 in 56 to 68 of 99 published experimental datasets depending on the CO2 source. Ensuring an increase in compressive strength from CO2 curing and mixing and decreasing the electricity used in CO2 curing are promising strategies to increase the net CO2 benefit from CCU concrete.

How to Conduct Prospective Life Cycle Assessment for Emerging Technologies? A Systematic Review and Methodological Guidance

Emerging technologies are expected to contribute to environmental sustainable development. However, throughout the development of novel technologies, it is unknown whether emerging technologies can lead to reduced environmental impacts compared to a potentially displaced mature technology. Additionally, process steps suspected to be environmental hotspots can be improved by process engineers early in the development of the emerging technology. In order to determine the environmental impacts of emerging technologies at an early stage of development, prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) should be performed. However, consistency in prospective LCA methodology is lacking. Therefore, this article develops a framework for a prospective LCA in order to overcome the methodological inconsistencies regarding prospective LCAs. The methodological framework was developed using literature on prospective LCAs of emerging technologies, and therefore, a literature review on prospective LCAs was conducted. We found 44 case studies, four review papers, and 17 papers on methodological guidance. Three main challenges for conducting prospective LCAs are identified: Comparability, data, and uncertainty challenges. The issues in defining the aim, functionality, and system boundaries of the prospective LCAs, as well as problems with specifying LCIA methodologies, comprise the comparability challenge. Data availability, quality, and scaling are issues within the data challenge. Finally, uncertainty exists as an overarching challenge when applying a prospective LCA. These three challenges are especially crucial for the prospective assessment of emerging technologies. However, this review also shows that within the methodological papers and case studies, several approaches exist to tackle these challenges. These approaches were systematically summarized within a framework to give guidance on how to overcome the issues when conducting prospective LCAs of emerging technologies. Accordingly, this framework is useful for LCA practitioners who are analyzing early-stage technologies. Nevertheless, further research is needed to develop appropriate scale-up schemes and to include uncertainty analyses for a more in-depth interpretation of results.

The Future of Ex-Ante LCA? Lessons Learned and Practical Recommendations

Every decision-oriented life cycle assessment (LCAs) entails, at least to some extent, a future-oriented feature. However, apart from the ex-ante LCAs, the majority of LCA studies are retrospective in nature and do not explicitly account for possible future effects. In this review a generic theoretical framework is proposed as a guideline for ex-ante LCA. This framework includes the entire technology life cycle, from the early design phase up to continuous improvements of mature technologies, including their market penetration. The compatibility with commonly applied system models yields an additional aspect of the framework. Practical methods and procedures are categorised, based on how they incorporate future-oriented features in LCA. The results indicate that most of the ex-ante LCAs focus on emerging technologies that have already gone through some research cycles within narrowly defined system boundaries. There is a lack of attention given to technologies that are at a very early development stage, when all options are still open and can be explored at a low cost. It is also acknowledged that technological learning impacts the financial and environmental performance of mature production systems. Once technologies are entering the market, shifts in market composition can lead to substantial changes in environmental performance.