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Baratsas SG, Niziolek AM, Onel O, Matthews LR, Floudas CA, Hallermann DR, Sorescu SM, Pistikopoulos EN. A framework to predict the price of energy for the end-users with applications to monetary and energy policies. Nat Commun 2021; 12:18. [PMID: 33398000 PMCID: PMC7782726 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20203-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2020] [Accepted: 11/09/2020] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Energy affects every single individual and entity in the world. Therefore, it is crucial to precisely quantify the “price of energy” and study how it evolves through time, through major political and social events, and through changes in energy and monetary policies. Here, we develop a predictive framework, an index to calculate the average price of energy in the United States. The complex energy landscape is thoroughly analysed to accurately determine the two key factors of this framework: the total demand of the energy products directed to the end-use sectors, and the corresponding price of each product. A rolling horizon predictive methodology is introduced to estimate future energy demands, with excellent predictive capability, shown over a period of 174 months. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated by addressing two policy questions of significant public interest. Global energy transformation requires quantifying the "price of energy" and studying its evolution. Here the authors present a predictive framework that calculates the average US price of energy, estimating future energy demands for up to four years with excellent accuracy, designing and optimizing energy and monetary policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefanos G Baratsas
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA.,Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Alexander M Niziolek
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA.,Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Onur Onel
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA.,Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Logan R Matthews
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA.,Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Christodoulos A Floudas
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA.,Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Detlef R Hallermann
- Department of Finance, Mays Business School, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Sorin M Sorescu
- Department of Finance, Mays Business School, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Efstratios N Pistikopoulos
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA. .,Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA.
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2
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Structure, chemistry and physicochemistry of lignin for material functionalization. SN APPLIED SCIENCES 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s42452-019-1126-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022] Open
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3
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Demirhan CD, Tso WW, Powell JB, Pistikopoulos EN. Sustainable ammonia production through process synthesis and global optimization. AIChE J 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/aic.16498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- C. Doga Demirhan
- Artie McFerrin Dept. of Chemical Engineering; Texas A&M University; College Station, TX 77843
- Texas A&M Energy Institute; Texas A&M University; College Station, TX 77843
| | - William W. Tso
- Artie McFerrin Dept. of Chemical Engineering; Texas A&M University; College Station, TX 77843
- Texas A&M Energy Institute; Texas A&M University; College Station, TX 77843
| | | | - Efstratios N. Pistikopoulos
- Artie McFerrin Dept. of Chemical Engineering; Texas A&M University; College Station, TX 77843
- Texas A&M Energy Institute; Texas A&M University; College Station, TX 77843
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Matthews LR, Niziolek AM, Onel O, Pinnaduwage N, Floudas CA. Correction to “Biomass to Liquid Transportation Fuels via Biological and Thermochemical Conversion: Process Synthesis and Global Optimization Strategies”. Ind Eng Chem Res 2018. [DOI: 10.1021/acs.iecr.8b04523] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Logan R. Matthews
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, United States
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-3122, United States
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-3372, United States
| | - Alexander M. Niziolek
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, United States
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-3122, United States
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-3372, United States
| | - Onur Onel
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, United States
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-3122, United States
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-3372, United States
| | - Neesha Pinnaduwage
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, United States
| | - Christodoulos A. Floudas
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-3122, United States
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-3372, United States
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Tso WW, Niziolek AM, Onel O, Demirhan CD, Floudas CA, Pistikopoulos EN. Reprint of: Enhancing natural gas-to-liquids (GTL) processes through chemical looping for syngas production: Process synthesis and global optimization. Comput Chem Eng 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.compchemeng.2018.10.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Matthews LR, Guzman YA, Onel O, Niziolek AM, Floudas CA. Natural Gas to Liquid Transportation Fuels under Uncertainty Using Robust Optimization. Ind Eng Chem Res 2018. [DOI: 10.1021/acs.iecr.8b01638] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Logan R. Matthews
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, United States
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, United States
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, United States
| | - Yannis A. Guzman
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, United States
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, United States
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, United States
| | - Onur Onel
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, United States
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, United States
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, United States
| | - Alexander M. Niziolek
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, United States
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, United States
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, United States
| | - Christodoulos A. Floudas
- Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, United States
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, United States
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Tso WW, Niziolek AM, Onel O, Demirhan CD, Floudas CA, Pistikopoulos EN. Enhancing natural gas-to-liquids (GTL) processes through chemical looping for syngas production: Process synthesis and global optimization. Comput Chem Eng 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.compchemeng.2018.03.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
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Niziolek AM, Onel O, Floudas CA. Municipal solid waste to liquid transportation fuels, olefins, and aromatics: Process synthesis and deterministic global optimization. Comput Chem Eng 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.compchemeng.2016.07.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
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Yuan Z, Eden MR. Superstructure optimization of integrated fast pyrolysis‐gasification for production of liquid fuels and propylene. AIChE J 2016. [DOI: 10.1002/aic.15337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Zhihong Yuan
- Dept. of Chemical EngineeringAuburn UniversityAuburn AL36849
| | - Mario R. Eden
- Dept. of Chemical EngineeringAuburn UniversityAuburn AL36849
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Huang Y, Edgar TF. Preface for the Special Issue on Sustainable Chemical Manufacturing. Ind Eng Chem Res 2016. [DOI: 10.1021/acs.iecr.6b01040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yinlun Huang
- Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan, United States
| | - Thomas F. Edgar
- The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States
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Floudas CA, Niziolek AM, Onel O, Matthews LR. Multi‐scale systems engineering for energy and the environment: Challenges and opportunities. AIChE J 2016. [DOI: 10.1002/aic.15151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Christodoulos A. Floudas
- Artie McFerrin Dept. of Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M UniversityCollege Station TX77843 USA
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, 302D Williams Administration Building, 3372 Texas A&M UniversityCollege Station TX77843USA
| | - Alexander M. Niziolek
- Dept. of Chemical and Biological EngineeringPrinceton UniversityPrinceton NJ08544 USA
- Artie McFerrin Dept. of Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M UniversityCollege Station TX77843 USA
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, 302D Williams Administration Building, 3372 Texas A&M UniversityCollege Station TX77843USA
| | - Onur Onel
- Dept. of Chemical and Biological EngineeringPrinceton UniversityPrinceton NJ08544 USA
- Artie McFerrin Dept. of Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M UniversityCollege Station TX77843 USA
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, 302D Williams Administration Building, 3372 Texas A&M UniversityCollege Station TX77843USA
| | - Logan R. Matthews
- Dept. of Chemical and Biological EngineeringPrinceton UniversityPrinceton NJ08544 USA
- Artie McFerrin Dept. of Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M UniversityCollege Station TX77843 USA
- Texas A&M Energy Institute, 302D Williams Administration Building, 3372 Texas A&M UniversityCollege Station TX77843USA
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