Approximating First Hitting Point Distribution in Milestoning for Rare Event Kinetics

Comparison of Accuracy and Efficiency of Milestoning Variants: Introducing Buffer Milestoning

The Milestoning algorithm is a method for long-time molecular dynamics simulations. It enables the sampling of rare events. The precise calculations of observables depend on accurately determining the first hitting point distribution (FHPD) for each milestone. There is no analytical expression for FHPD, which is estimated numerically. Several variants of Milestoning offer approximations to the FHPD. Here, we examine in detail the FHPD of an exact calculation and Milestoning variants. We also introduce a new version of the Milestoning algorithm, buffer Milestoning, with a comparable cost to conventional Milestoning but higher accuracy. We use the mean first passage time and the free energy to assess the simulation quality, and we compare the accuracy and efficiency of buffer Milestoning to exact calculations, conventional Milestoning, local-passage-time-weighted Milestoning, Markovian Milestoning with Voronoi tessellation, and exact Milestoning. Conventional Milestoning requires milestone decorrelation. If this condition is not satisfied, it is the least accurate approach of all the techniques we examined. We conclude that for a small increase in cost compared to conventional Milestoning, buffer Milestoning provides accurate results for a range of problems, including more correlated milestones and is, therefore, versatile compared to other variants. Local-passage-time-weighted Milestoning provides accuracy similar to that of buffer Milestoning but at an increased simulation cost. Markovian Milestoning with Voronoi tessellation is the most accurate compared with other approximations, but it is less stable for high barriers and more expensive.

On committor functions in milestoning

As an optimal one-dimensional reaction coordinate, the committor function not only describes the probability of a trajectory initiated at a phase space point first reaching the product state before reaching the reactant state but also preserves the kinetics when utilized to run a reduced dynamics model. However, calculating the committor function in high-dimensional systems poses significant challenges. In this paper, within the framework of milestoning, exact expressions for committor functions at two levels of coarse graining are given, including committor functions of phase space point to point (CFPP) and milestone to milestone (CFMM). When combined with transition kernels obtained from trajectory analysis, these expressions can be utilized to accurately and efficiently compute the committor functions. Furthermore, based on the calculated committor functions, an adaptive algorithm is developed to gradually refine the transition state region. Finally, two model examples are employed to assess the accuracy of these different formulations of committor functions.