Potts Hamiltonian Models and Molecular Dynamics Free Energy Simulations for Predicting the Impact of Mutations on Protein Kinase Stability

Biophysical fitness landscape design traps viral evolution

We introduce foundational principles for designing customizable fitness landscapes for proteins. We focus on crafting antibody ensembles to create evolutionary traps which restrict viral fitness enhancement. By deriving a fundamental relationship between a mutant protein's fitness and its binding affinities to host receptors and antibodies, we show that the fitnesses of different protein sequences are designable, meaning they can be independently tuned by careful choice of antibodies. Given a user-defined target fitness landscape, stochastic optimization can be performed to obtain such an ensemble of antibodies which force the protein to evolve according to the designed target fitness landscape. We conduct in silico serial dilution experiments using microscopic chemical reaction dynamics to simulate viral evolution and validate the fitness landscape design. We then apply the design protocol to control the relative fitnesses of two SARS-CoV-2 neutral genotype networks while ensuring absolute fitness reduction. Finally, we introduce an iterative design protocol which consistently discovers better vaccination target sequences, generating antibodies that restrict the post-vaccination fitness growth of escape variants while simultaneously suppressing wildtype fitness. Biophysical fitness landscape design thus opens the door to prescient vaccine, antibody, and peptide design, thinking several steps ahead of pathogen evolution.

Using AlphaFold2 to Predict the Conformations of Side Chains in Folded Proteins

AlphaFold has revolutionized protein structure prediction by accurately creating 3D structures from just the amino acid sequence. However, even with extensive research validating its overall accuracy, a key question remains: Can AlphaFold predict the conformation of individual amino acid residue side chains within a folded protein? This is important for the field of molecular modeling, particularly when predicting the effects of mutations on protein stability and ligand binding. AlphaFold generates a set of atomic coordinates not just for the mutated side chain but also for potential rearrangements across the entire protein structure. In this study we investigate the ability of ColabFold, an online implementation of AlphaFold2 (AF2), to predict the conformations of residue side chains in folded proteins. We find that over a set of 10 benchmark proteins, the side chain conformation prediction error of ColabFold is on average ~ 14 % forχ 1 dihedral angles, and increases to ~ 48 % forχ 3 dihedral angles. The prediction error is smaller for non-polar side chains and is somewhat improved using structural templates. ColabFold demonstrates a bias towards the most prevalent rotamer states in the protein data bank (PDB), potentially limiting its ability to capture rare side chain conformations effectively. As an application of AlphaFold to explore the structural consequences of strongly cooperative mutations on side chain rearrangements, we employ a Potts sequence-based statistical energy model to perform large scale mutational scans of two proteins ABL1 and PIM1 kinase, searching for the most strongly cooperative mutational pairs, and then use ColabFold to predict the structural signatures of this cooperativity on the interacting side chains. Our results demonstrate that integration of the sequence-based Potts model with AlphaFold into a single pipeline provides a new tool that can be used to explore the fundamental relationship between protein mutations, cooperative changes in structure, and fitness.

Empowering AlphaFold2 for protein conformation selective drug discovery with AlphaFold2-RAVE

Small-molecule drug design hinges on obtaining co-crystallized ligand-protein structures. Despite AlphaFold2's strides in protein native structure prediction, its focus on apo structures overlooks ligands and associated holo structures. Moreover, designing selective drugs often benefits from the targeting of diverse metastable conformations. Therefore, direct application of AlphaFold2 models in virtual screening and drug discovery remains tentative. Here, we demonstrate an AlphaFold2-based framework combined with all-atom enhanced sampling molecular dynamics and Induced Fit docking, named AF2RAVE-Glide, to conduct computational model-based small-molecule binding of metastable protein kinase conformations, initiated from protein sequences. We demonstrate the AF2RAVE-Glide workflow on three different mammalian protein kinases and their type I and II inhibitors, with special emphasis on binding of known type II kinase inhibitors which target the metastable classical DFG-out state. These states are not easy to sample from AlphaFold2. Here, we demonstrate how with AF2RAVE these metastable conformations can be sampled for different kinases with high enough accuracy to enable subsequent docking of known type II kinase inhibitors with more than 50% success rates across docking calculations. We believe the protocol should be deployable for other kinases and more proteins generally.

Evolutionary sequence and structural basis for the distinct conformational landscapes of Tyr and Ser/Thr kinases

Protein kinases are molecular machines with rich sequence variation that distinguishes the two main evolutionary branches - tyrosine kinases (TKs) from serine/threonine kinases (STKs). Using a sequence co-variation Potts statistical energy model we previously concluded that TK catalytic domains are more likely than STKs to adopt an inactive conformation with the activation loop in an autoinhibitory folded conformation, due to intrinsic sequence effects. Here we investigate the structural basis for this phenomenon by integrating the sequence-based model with structure-based molecular dynamics (MD) to determine the effects of mutations on the free energy difference between active and inactive conformations, using a thermodynamic cycle involving many (n = 108) protein-mutation free energy perturbation (FEP) simulations in the active and inactive conformations. The sequence and structure-based results are consistent and support the hypothesis that the inactive conformation DFG-out Activation Loop Folded, is a functional regulatory state that has been stabilized in TKs relative to STKs over the course of their evolution via the accumulation of residue substitutions in the activation loop and catalytic loop that facilitate distinct substrate binding modes in trans and additional modes of regulation in cis for TKs.

Empowering AlphaFold2 for protein conformation selective drug discovery with AlphaFold2-RAVE

Small molecule drug design hinges on obtaining co-crystallized ligand-protein structures. Despite AlphaFold2's strides in protein native structure prediction, its focus on apo structures overlooks ligands and associated holo structures. Moreover, designing selective drugs often benefits from the targeting of diverse metastable conformations. Therefore, direct application of AlphaFold2 models in virtual screening and drug discovery remains tentative. Here, we demonstrate an AlphaFold2 based framework combined with all-atom enhanced sampling molecular dynamics and induced fit docking, named AF2RAVE-Glide, to conduct computational model based small molecule binding of metastable protein kinase conformations, initiated from protein sequences. We demonstrate the AF2RAVE-Glide workflow on three different protein kinases and their type I and II inhibitors, with special emphasis on binding of known type II kinase inhibitors which target the metastable classical DFG-out state. These states are not easy to sample from AlphaFold2. Here we demonstrate how with AF2RAVE these metastable conformations can be sampled for different kinases with high enough accuracy to enable subsequent docking of known type II kinase inhibitors with more than 50% success rates across docking calculations. We believe the protocol should be deployable for other kinases and more proteins generally.

Evolutionary sequence and structural basis for the distinct conformational landscapes of Tyr and Ser/Thr kinases

Protein kinases are molecular machines with rich sequence variation that distinguishes the two main evolutionary branches - tyrosine kinases (TKs) from serine/threonine kinases (STKs). Using a sequence co-variation Potts statistical energy model we previously concluded that TK catalytic domains are more likely than STKs to adopt an inactive conformation with the activation loop in an autoinhibitory "folded" conformation, due to intrinsic sequence effects. Here we investigated the structural basis for this phenomenon by integrating the sequence-based model with structure-based molecular dynamics (MD) to determine the effects of mutations on the free energy difference between active and inactive conformations, using a novel thermodynamic cycle involving many (n=108) protein-mutation free energy perturbation (FEP) simulations in the active and inactive conformations. The sequence and structure-based results are consistent and support the hypothesis that the inactive conformation "DFG-out Activation Loop Folded", is a functional regulatory state that has been stabilized in TKs relative to STKs over the course of their evolution via the accumulation of residue substitutions in the activation loop and catalytic loop that facilitate distinct substrate binding modes in trans and additional modes of regulation in cis for TKs.

Evolutionary sequence and structural basis for the distinct conformational landscapes of Tyr and Ser/Thr kinases

Protein kinases are molecular machines with rich sequence variation that distinguishes the two main evolutionary branches - tyrosine kinases (TKs) from serine/threonine kinases (STKs). Using a sequence co-variation Potts statistical energy model we previously concluded that TK catalytic domains are more likely than STKs to adopt an inactive conformation with the activation loop in an autoinhibitory "folded" conformation, due to intrinsic sequence effects. Here we investigated the structural basis for this phenomenon by integrating the sequence-based model with structure-based molecular dynamics (MD) to determine the effects of mutations on the free energy difference between active and inactive conformations, using a novel thermodynamic cycle involving many (n=108) protein-mutation free energy perturbation (FEP) simulations in the active and inactive conformations. The sequence and structure-based results are consistent and support the hypothesis that the inactive conformation "DFG-out Activation Loop Folded", is a functional regulatory state that has been stabilized in TKs relative to STKs over the course of their evolution via the accumulation of residue substitutions in the activation loop and catalytic loop that facilitate distinct substrate binding modes in trans and additional modes of regulation in cis for TKs.